tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54567133161061958692024-03-14T03:27:21.876-07:00A Walk On The Natural SideJim Steele examines natural climate change, species extinctions, species range changes, environmental stewardship.Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.comBlogger166125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-56596892391521289722023-08-19T08:19:00.002-07:002023-11-20T13:03:55.768-08:00Lahaina Fire Tragedy: Undeniable Proof that Alarmist Climate Scientist Michael Mann is Misinforming the Public About a Climate Crisis!<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Undeniable Proof that Alarmist Climate Scientist Michael Mann is Misinforming the Public About a Climate Crisis! </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Recently the ambulance-chasing commentator for a DemocracyNow video highlighted the tragic Lahaina fire by opening with “100 deaths and likely far more and linked to the climate crisis” suggesting the fire was was due to climate change drought.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BzIeQg9R7M) </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">For proof, she interviewed Michael Mann who was a major force in initiating the climate crisis meme decades ago. Accordingly, Michael Mann reinforced her fear mongering link between fires and climate change, stating <b>climate change increased a naturally occurring pressure gradient causing high winds that “interacted with epic drought”</b>. His first big lie was blaming an <b>epic drought</b>. My attached illustrations present data for Maui County from the US Drought Monitor for the recent 8 years. Unlike Mann, Data doesn’t have a biased opinion. An internet link is provided which includes the longer time series showing how Maui’s droughts oscillate every 4 to 6 years. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJW3gEIzX4LnlHT0YwwKJoCXryh-3qV9ShyrciGxoALZ3QX4e4onUaZT9YTTFepeWyBe2JZQDC8H71SSa2joUwILbRMBGEIsk34pAoGxKX8_3_pAsppqV-4wzKO3Dz5M_f07dthDx550GRAKhHMqTkBRvilsOZ2sl8gPIB3mvMd5awG4lXtqYvk3QDJ47s/s1908/maui%20drought%20200-2023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="705" data-original-width="1908" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJW3gEIzX4LnlHT0YwwKJoCXryh-3qV9ShyrciGxoALZ3QX4e4onUaZT9YTTFepeWyBe2JZQDC8H71SSa2joUwILbRMBGEIsk34pAoGxKX8_3_pAsppqV-4wzKO3Dz5M_f07dthDx550GRAKhHMqTkBRvilsOZ2sl8gPIB3mvMd5awG4lXtqYvk3QDJ47s/w640-h236/maui%20drought%20200-2023.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl3htFe9V-3woFaFJgGc9yJl-0EdSOLjwCWSIjSnR6fBgmqbNNaiBm2vOi7dbfWdqqe0Tf5fmD_uoNdIkL8eb7iH7hiwN1fN3ahA9HGsw1Y5AwD9DH0wOBmEUYMMCjTfDYNXnYMh0qCt4GQcMgOdcKJC3Fqe1SVRDhMHQ7IMosoNWGz9yETF7MiwaNQe2B/s2282/maui%20drought%20lines%20and%20box.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1769" data-original-width="2282" height="496" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjl3htFe9V-3woFaFJgGc9yJl-0EdSOLjwCWSIjSnR6fBgmqbNNaiBm2vOi7dbfWdqqe0Tf5fmD_uoNdIkL8eb7iH7hiwN1fN3ahA9HGsw1Y5AwD9DH0wOBmEUYMMCjTfDYNXnYMh0qCt4GQcMgOdcKJC3Fqe1SVRDhMHQ7IMosoNWGz9yETF7MiwaNQe2B/w640-h496/maui%20drought%20lines%20and%20box.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Please notice Maui‘s droughts are also seasonal. White and yellow spaces represent times of no drought, typically seen during the rainy season from December to February. Extreme and Exceptional droughts (perhaps Mann’s epic drought?) are the dark reds. The website is interactive, allowing you to see exactly what percentage of Maui County was in drought on any day for 23 years. My redlines represent 4 dates linked to the bottom row of four boxes showing the percentages of Maui County with each classification of drought intensity for that day. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">My blue box highlights May 16, 2023. Notice there were zero droughts and no abnormally dry conditions. Red boxes represent similar dates as the Lahaina fire on August 8th. Maui’s rainless period typically lasts from about May 25 to end of July, so early August is typically dry. <b>Yet there were no Extreme or Exceptional droughts on August 8, 2023. Only 15.9% of Maui experienced severe drought, while 64% experienced no droughts at all.</b> Hmmmm, so what was Alarmist Mike talking about? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Clearly, Maui droughts are due to localized moisture conditions. Maui County is just 1,161 square miles, about the size of the small state of Rhode Island. When just 185 square miles experienced severe drought, you need to be brainwashed to believe global warming and evaporation caused Mann’s not so epic drought. Furthermore, Lahaina is naturally dry, situated on the leeward side of Maui’s mountains that wring out the moisture carried by the trade winds. Only 15” of rain fall in Lahaina each year compared to 300” on the mountains to the east. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Finally, the <b>invasive grasslands that carried the deadly fire into Lahaina are dead in August and only require a half day of dry conditions to become highly flammable</b>. It’s ridiculous to blame a hundred years of CO2 global warming for the abundance of invasive grasses that dry in one day. But Alarmist Mike never mentioned that fact. Fortunately, several honest research papers have warned Maui residents that they must manage the abandon sugar cane and pineapple fields to eliminate that build-up of fire fuel by invasive grasses. Unfortunately, governments did not act on their science. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaem8GWLVKLg2AnFt_GohO8fn5EHfZ8cuefHEQwAourvrMcyE-uQiC97Uzd46rp2qyfSKyvLzza5Ob2NCLqkvz6V6HdWjyEj_L-igjH-JWEheasUg55Hlb87c2kPDppn6wOX10Iyos9VuljQVlb0VzNl7G7G68izr87dg8PFgdFuF7_nJonpyx_GiQaIbM/s624/maui%20grass%20fire.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="354" data-original-width="624" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaem8GWLVKLg2AnFt_GohO8fn5EHfZ8cuefHEQwAourvrMcyE-uQiC97Uzd46rp2qyfSKyvLzza5Ob2NCLqkvz6V6HdWjyEj_L-igjH-JWEheasUg55Hlb87c2kPDppn6wOX10Iyos9VuljQVlb0VzNl7G7G68izr87dg8PFgdFuF7_nJonpyx_GiQaIbM/w640-h364/maui%20grass%20fire.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Mann’s second big error of omission abused his typical half-truths to suggest the climate crisis caused a bigger pressure gradient that brought abnormally high winds. Being farther north than Hawaiian (the big island ), Maui is affected by stronger northern trade winds that intensify as the normal high-pressure system strengthens each summer. Maui’s topography further intensifies those winds through the mountain valleys. <b>Strong downslope wind events reaching 80 to 100 mph every 8-12 years have "demolished buildings, overturned large power transmission line towers, and uprooted trees."</b> Once or twice a year strong but more moderate winds occur. During the fire, 30 to 40 mph winds with gusts up yo 67 mph fanned the flames. These winds got a special name, the Lahaina Winds. Locals also call them "Lehua winds" after the red blossoms of the ʻōhiʻa lehua tree that shower the landscape during such events. The Lehua winds have been officially reported in the 1995 "A Natural History of the Hawaiian Islands" and in 1985 research reports. Even the http://maui-vacation-expert.com writes about these Violent Winds on Maui. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Ninety-eight percent of Maui’s fires are started by human carelessness.</b> Their extent is fueled by bad landscape management. Nonetheless Mann blames natural climate dynamics for this tragedy. It is like blaming the ocean for a man’s drowning, when his poor seamanship capsized his boat, and he didn’t bring a life jacket. But Mann will keep repeating such climate exaggerations until he gets dumb politicians to only accept his bogus opinions. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Beware people! </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6LltU89Qgt35ytKfNKxFozBBsVEhTF245qdBaZxyNBV8lXE2MTmOiMP5XFSbK9D1dt6muQkLtRi-aCrDsYVSGxKNVRtZ6TyfWajChrhBtoF9JRF8TK1zc6TvLXj7jHB2ATH-LN93ZEbkJ9f14Y9Lap33EpCj4hZY_dtV9GaguNryz79QO26V5bVEONzUS/s2580/mann%20fork%20tongue.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="2580" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6LltU89Qgt35ytKfNKxFozBBsVEhTF245qdBaZxyNBV8lXE2MTmOiMP5XFSbK9D1dt6muQkLtRi-aCrDsYVSGxKNVRtZ6TyfWajChrhBtoF9JRF8TK1zc6TvLXj7jHB2ATH-LN93ZEbkJ9f14Y9Lap33EpCj4hZY_dtV9GaguNryz79QO26V5bVEONzUS/w400-h133/mann%20fork%20tongue.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><br /></p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-75584657409223136152023-06-11T22:31:00.108-07:002023-06-12T10:37:36.144-07:00How CO2 Starvation and Plate Tectonics Caused the Greatest extinctions on Earth, the Permian<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This is the transcript for the video </span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><h2 style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #0d0d0d; font-family: Roboto, Noto, sans-serif; text-align: start; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: medium;">"How CO2 Starvation & Plate Tectonics Caused the Greatest Mass Extinction, the Permian Great Dying" </span></span></h2><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">available at https://youtu.be/89imeYT_shs</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioG-J1xmRkzZWKi_UA13uggzbQYq1AEbp95-o3a4LvQubVaYm6uv9eGLehfr70JK-nOHfbICF1PjQlFr80tnCEfBczsmSRk4nDE3FN-lCSiiJeBIlDfbMD5LCHsq2YpcJi8Tu5V62J2WdVjSewsgPDOcG9rfxpVistMVQPCdWef2Jl_F7yptC6VJi3Rw/s2882/permian%20fossil%20collage.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1402" data-original-width="2882" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioG-J1xmRkzZWKi_UA13uggzbQYq1AEbp95-o3a4LvQubVaYm6uv9eGLehfr70JK-nOHfbICF1PjQlFr80tnCEfBczsmSRk4nDE3FN-lCSiiJeBIlDfbMD5LCHsq2YpcJi8Tu5V62J2WdVjSewsgPDOcG9rfxpVistMVQPCdWef2Jl_F7yptC6VJi3Rw/w640-h312/permian%20fossil%20collage.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Welcome back everyone. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This video will explore the wealth of evidence suggesting that the combination of CO2 starvation and plate tectonics caused the greatest extinctions on earth collectively known as the end Permian extinction or the Great Dying. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The end-Permian marked the transition from 300 million years of Paleozoic plant and animal dominance and the resetting of earth's evolutionary trajectory, towards our modern fauna. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Permian extinctions represented a loss of 57% of all biological families, 83% of all genera, 81%of marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species in existence in the end Permian’s last million years. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Coinciding with these Permian extinctions was the decline of abundant CO2 concentrations since the Ordovician period to the stressful low concentrations in the Permian. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">For the first time in earth's history, CO2 concentrations fell below 1000 ppm, the concentration that supports maximum photosynthesis productivity. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ2CcLwCedwAIPeYHucBe_nbDfbbdJ7d8PhTh-GRD2HYtklpxYrLLnrtHjXBzu3N310zQNC0M_o0eeatpfAXzbhDn8DQu7Z10x5KLK4AelzYX8lcZMz-YF_C4DG_1TTgys_hRrDIv8v5-lXNs_609BoszRanumZI295OglP_vdZjlnu_X0prypgSlkJQ/s2896/declining%20paleozoic%20co2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1452" data-original-width="2896" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ2CcLwCedwAIPeYHucBe_nbDfbbdJ7d8PhTh-GRD2HYtklpxYrLLnrtHjXBzu3N310zQNC0M_o0eeatpfAXzbhDn8DQu7Z10x5KLK4AelzYX8lcZMz-YF_C4DG_1TTgys_hRrDIv8v5-lXNs_609BoszRanumZI295OglP_vdZjlnu_X0prypgSlkJQ/w640-h320/declining%20paleozoic%20co2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">While plants suffered from low CO2, land vertebrate extinctions were largely a result of oxygen's dramatic roller coaster ride that crashed in the Permian. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It is essential to first understand how changes in CO2 concentrations affect photosynthesis and plant productivity. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The key productivity enzyme, Rubisco, grabs a CO2 molecule and then shuttles it down a metabolic pathway to produce the sugars and carbohydrates essential for all life. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Today various versions of Rubisco are saturated when CO2 reaches 1000 ppm thus maximizing photosynthetic production.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Our current atmospheric concentrations are only 40% of the optimum. For that reason, modern commercial greenhouses raise CO2 to 1000 ppm for maximum crop yields.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During pre-industrial times of the Little Ice Age, CO2 concentrations fell to 280 ppm and evidence shows during that time ocean productivity was much lower than today.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">If CO2 concentrations fall below 150 ppm, then photosynthesis can stop completely. So, policies to sequester and lower CO2 must be very careful not to approach this deadly level.</span></p><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh43sGcO2DAF7B06gPpKyxJSe6wPJ0tIQpExi_hk4kbWJgZFOfBcoEaOVU7aw8727PdPUevsOy920QRay32VgPAJCJGqftZ2BjBB35vTV4YwUQCxZe_lIka7RS-Lsm4J_puQX_nOwmJgWEIMHQH2xm1btfkb5il7xjpFlKL5QP_Fs8Uu_FMLaanHgZeQw/s1631/MODIFIED%20CO2%20TABLE.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1407" data-original-width="1631" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh43sGcO2DAF7B06gPpKyxJSe6wPJ0tIQpExi_hk4kbWJgZFOfBcoEaOVU7aw8727PdPUevsOy920QRay32VgPAJCJGqftZ2BjBB35vTV4YwUQCxZe_lIka7RS-Lsm4J_puQX_nOwmJgWEIMHQH2xm1btfkb5il7xjpFlKL5QP_Fs8Uu_FMLaanHgZeQw/w400-h345/MODIFIED%20CO2%20TABLE.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">There are many competing theories regards the causes of the massive Permian extinctions, but scientists are nowhere near a consensus. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Click-bait media such as the NY Times have been obsessed only with theories blaming warming temperatures. They then segue those theories into fearful narratives about extinction threats from modern global warming. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPDi5VQ2n7brFlYzm4FFM5KbjeRHKmmtc0dyIA7KcgUMR2OOVmd5n26DDLVyzpPv3UIZK5mVNoD6NnSyPOvSnjza4LMf0QOBg523WsalabZHKhbndKrXHWPN1JHW5-B1O8tF5XPy3wE_K7UHi9uCoWBkD42s6FUhTx6Z7FEataE19t0AjQV49lrXh0hA/s4395/ny%20times%20isozaki%20permian.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="4395" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPDi5VQ2n7brFlYzm4FFM5KbjeRHKmmtc0dyIA7KcgUMR2OOVmd5n26DDLVyzpPv3UIZK5mVNoD6NnSyPOvSnjza4LMf0QOBg523WsalabZHKhbndKrXHWPN1JHW5-B1O8tF5XPy3wE_K7UHi9uCoWBkD42s6FUhTx6Z7FEataE19t0AjQV49lrXh0hA/w640-h188/ny%20times%20isozaki%20permian.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, many researchers have pointed to the competition for the declining CO2, that resulted in severely reduced photosynthesis, the collapse of primary productivity and a significant malfunction of the global food webs. Evidence is rapidly accumulating to support their conclusions.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the Ordovician with CO2 concentrations 5 times greater than the saturation level, newly evolving photosynthesizing species were not limited by competition for CO2. Thus, the greatest phytoplankton diversity developed then. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By the Permian, CO2 concentrations fell to a stressfully low 200 ppm and very few new species appeared. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI7Vn0YFM5MfcleujBk2fttHSUGrVvyJVNljWkvyv4Di9Sf2TOsZuFPUbwLemBXIcjKH0QaO0_Ig3K8hWrFqiBsluE3ZtIrW0P5UoFdIXPyR1T8XHCxGQrTsXxvkZdsbTPdtqcC7zdAibzz9kGBLx4HwMmmfwAtiz0OyGDiGyZmL5A-tODaRCkW1X3AQ/s2167/decline%20paleo%20phytopplankton%20trend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1150" data-original-width="2167" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI7Vn0YFM5MfcleujBk2fttHSUGrVvyJVNljWkvyv4Di9Sf2TOsZuFPUbwLemBXIcjKH0QaO0_Ig3K8hWrFqiBsluE3ZtIrW0P5UoFdIXPyR1T8XHCxGQrTsXxvkZdsbTPdtqcC7zdAibzz9kGBLx4HwMmmfwAtiz0OyGDiGyZmL5A-tODaRCkW1X3AQ/w640-h340/decline%20paleo%20phytopplankton%20trend.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">There is a strong correlation with origination of new Paleozoic phytoplankton species (illustrated in green) and the concentration of CO2 (seen on the right). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the great Ordovician Biodiversification Event, the greatest abundance of newly evolved phytoplankton species correlated with high CO2 concentrations. New species typically also suffer higher extinction rates (illustrated in red) as they evolved to survive in niches that are still in flux. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As CO2 concentrations plummeted during the Devonian when land plants competed for and sequestered more CO2, fewer new marine phytoplankton species evolved, and extinctions increased. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By the end Carboniferous and early Permian periods, virtually no new species appeared as CO2 concentrations fell dangerously close to levels at which photosynthesis could no longer be supported. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As a result, much of the green algae clades that had dominated the Paleozoic oceans died off, although this clade also provided the ancestors for land plants. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6H5sT30UMm6ncyRNtFQfaM5iJqQ898DxflALx5Q1IpDKOxawISOe3vvslNhUoxaWDAqldVpvIhVmdi1QQnRTEtKIVdYsME-3cM-a91PR0jy__u--FuNsG6-YMWHS_Y_ntcSi6i2lS1Iqyo1oLOPSiuPRqjnJO5m1TFY8pMdn1vj4CVySX2BDlxTRsFQ/s912/green%20red%20algae%20clades.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="332" data-original-width="912" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6H5sT30UMm6ncyRNtFQfaM5iJqQ898DxflALx5Q1IpDKOxawISOe3vvslNhUoxaWDAqldVpvIhVmdi1QQnRTEtKIVdYsME-3cM-a91PR0jy__u--FuNsG6-YMWHS_Y_ntcSi6i2lS1Iqyo1oLOPSiuPRqjnJO5m1TFY8pMdn1vj4CVySX2BDlxTRsFQ/w640-h232/green%20red%20algae%20clades.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Phytoplankton from the red clades with more efficient photosynthesis, rose to dominance later in the age of dinosaurs and still dominate ocean primary productivity today. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When CO2 concentrations reached their lowest levels ever in the early Permian, phytoplankton fossils became extremely rare and the Permian experienced what scientists call a "phytoplankton blackout." </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So why the Permian blackout? </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP_cH4bYePNc7TwwEP1L22lMUFn5aOLbDWbJF47LO2gILy27GCASTb0FPz_ak1PbX2YKjYO3vqZfINvCeHisEsdMsSVcIUtXiZthcDz82PLWVx_PKZBM9HGoj3yfmYq_4K4VrqS5u4_Tlh_AHc9RMLSfTiJWjXs6WIJGDtUhEmyi_nVVus_jI3tKl9Aw/s797/phytoplankton%20blackout.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="619" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP_cH4bYePNc7TwwEP1L22lMUFn5aOLbDWbJF47LO2gILy27GCASTb0FPz_ak1PbX2YKjYO3vqZfINvCeHisEsdMsSVcIUtXiZthcDz82PLWVx_PKZBM9HGoj3yfmYq_4K4VrqS5u4_Tlh_AHc9RMLSfTiJWjXs6WIJGDtUhEmyi_nVVus_jI3tKl9Aw/w498-h640/phytoplankton%20blackout.jpg" width="498" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Biased by the last mass extinction event at the end of the cretaceous when the earth was struck by an asteroid, researchers often search for a single devastating event, like an asteroid or a massive volcanic eruption to explain what happened during the end Permian.
However, there is a growing scientific belief that the Permian extinctions were more gradual and caused by a protracted decline in environmental conditions that slowly reduced the earth's biodiversity and thus reduced the probability of new species evolving that can adapt to changing conditions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This notion of a protracted extinction was discussed in the 2021 paper "dead clades walking". A clade is a group of organisms that evolved from a common ancestor. Multiple minor extinction events can gradually reduce a clade’s biodiversity and its resilience, so that the clade is doomed to extinction several million years later. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Clearly a mass extinction does not require an asteroid.
The gradual reduction in phytoplankton and photosynthesis can collapse food webs and result in major extinctions that, in the sparse fossil record, are incorrectly interpreted as a relatively rapid extinction event. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8SXxKtfBNJeL2cA9JWcMghdggCdMqHC0dwDxc3NTnJVDuDHHb1IwcSkQ7iz6UcfrzfzA8NCY6GNp0IrllWEKNPLQJ1PksNtU-dBzuKqordBlRcfCofvbNOpZklcoWSGtHVfCEmvJyII95XzVa6lnSceVl0XcaPZ7LzosmOwiOPrRdXVVhhzBNDxO0-A/s2928/5%20great%20mass%20extinctions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1636" data-original-width="2928" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8SXxKtfBNJeL2cA9JWcMghdggCdMqHC0dwDxc3NTnJVDuDHHb1IwcSkQ7iz6UcfrzfzA8NCY6GNp0IrllWEKNPLQJ1PksNtU-dBzuKqordBlRcfCofvbNOpZklcoWSGtHVfCEmvJyII95XzVa6lnSceVl0XcaPZ7LzosmOwiOPrRdXVVhhzBNDxO0-A/w640-h358/5%20great%20mass%20extinctions.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The media likes to emphasize the earth's 5 great mass extinctions. But several previous minor extinctions have all contributed to dead clades walking, clades that finally went extinct during the Permian mass extinction. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The first so-called great mass extinction happened during the Ordovician just after the great biodiversity event. Associated with the Ordovician icehouse, 61% of marine life disappeared and mostly culled many of the new species that had recently evolved in a previous warmer climate. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The late Devonian mass extinction was more disruptive, involving the loss of entire carbonate reef ecosystems that had dominated the early Paleozoic oceans. However, many researchers now believe that the end Devonian extinctions were simply the last of up to 7 protracted minor extinction events during a time when the colonization of the continents by land plants was rapidly depleting CO2 concentrations and dramatically reducing phytoplankton biodiversity. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The beginning of another glacial period during the mid-carboniferous caused 14-39% of the marine genera to go extinct. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The carboniferous rainforest collapse driven by drying continents and extremely low CO2 concentrations is considered to be only a minor extinction event, yet it totally altered tropical ecosystems and marked the peak in atmospheric oxygen before oxygen plummeted during the Permian. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Between 7 and 17 million years before the end Permian mass extinction, between 35 & 47% of marine invertebrate genera went extinct as well as nearly 80% of land vertebrates. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Those previous extinction events reduced biodiversity and support beliefs that the end per main mass extinction event was likely the culmination of dead clades walking. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The end Triassic and end cretaceous mass extinctions are the last two of the great extinctions but will not be examined here.
</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By sequestering CO2 and raising oxygen concentrations, photosynthesis paved the way for its own demise by amplifying photorespiration which greatly reduces photosynthesis in both marine and land plants. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqLXjoqTGRwqo_lmFRQfqL0bfBgqGSxbhteget-hQEdNunVEdypDw8Kr8_IgahWJ52mO7t45lKMAlGiPaFMqRO4p5rY5dIKRQ1jiYppgpRHHx1_u3-abRx_EkNGdJ2swnxCYI5vNMrR9UgUcFsXFkuyRB7gZJvNjd7GwEW7K3y9LMdOMMRLtA0jbMeKQ/s1014/photrespiration%20vs%20photosynth.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="1014" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqLXjoqTGRwqo_lmFRQfqL0bfBgqGSxbhteget-hQEdNunVEdypDw8Kr8_IgahWJ52mO7t45lKMAlGiPaFMqRO4p5rY5dIKRQ1jiYppgpRHHx1_u3-abRx_EkNGdJ2swnxCYI5vNMrR9UgUcFsXFkuyRB7gZJvNjd7GwEW7K3y9LMdOMMRLtA0jbMeKQ/w640-h402/photrespiration%20vs%20photosynth.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The key enzyme Rubisco first evolved when CO2 was abundant and oxygen scarce. Thus, under those conditions Rubisco could be sloppy about discriminating between CO2 and oxygen yet still be productive. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As oxygen concentrations increased and CO2 decreased throughout the Paleozoic, Rubisco increasingly grabbed oxygen instead of CO2 initiating destructive photorespiration that reduces plant productivity. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Laboratory experiments under current oxygen levels found when CO2 concentrations are as low as 220 ppm, plant biomass production is reduced by 50% and 30% of that reduced productivity was due to photorespiration. When CO2 was reduced to 150 ppm, productivity was reduced by 92%.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">For ocean phytoplankton, reduced CO2 is even more detrimental. When CO2 diffuses into the ocean most molecules immediately react with water creating 3 forms of inorganic carbon. CO2, bicarbonate, and carbonate ions. (Left graph) bicarbonate ions now constitute over 90% of the ocean's inorganic carbon, but rubisco can only use CO2 molecules. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU75sZOcqQnnsFIk5LESf-XCD7s8POwgxYV6toz_RsbAnxM1XufJYQLnzVCff64QH218SGNqnVJ6Sa9lkJoquB86M7v-c1cKuqz-2VBvBIb3hBXoPf47UEQ4veORrYO3enqp8PtqbElaKZJi9C-braaFmbKmCL6TRBOdLyuvfPAFVLxujvsU9mMIlFxg/s4363/inorganic%20carbon%20and%20pH.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1393" data-original-width="4363" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU75sZOcqQnnsFIk5LESf-XCD7s8POwgxYV6toz_RsbAnxM1XufJYQLnzVCff64QH218SGNqnVJ6Sa9lkJoquB86M7v-c1cKuqz-2VBvBIb3hBXoPf47UEQ4veORrYO3enqp8PtqbElaKZJi9C-braaFmbKmCL6TRBOdLyuvfPAFVLxujvsU9mMIlFxg/w640-h204/inorganic%20carbon%20and%20pH.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Furthermore, as CO2 is depleted ocean pH rises (seen in right graph). And ocean pH controls how the inorganic carbon is proportioned between more useable CO2 and bicarbonate ions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When CO2 falls to 200 ppm, ocean pH rises to 8.5 and the amount of available CO2 approaches zero. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To survive the negative effects of reduced CO2, phytoplankton have evolved CO2 concentrating mechanisms that increase the internal CO2 concentration. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Photosynthesizing cyanobacteria evolved the ability to import bicarbonate ions and shuttle them into a carboxysome where an enzyme converts bicarbonate ions into CO2 while in the proximity of Rubisco. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU9MHsDRRbvEGhkGkRRRFDH7NSHc20aDwGDMP8lfY4iXQk2z5zx9fV1mqynBqAgzEjoN_un1lox5aBoixYzWZS07anfrjxBCNEGAoqh_KTB6RFsaXEqcBCrmFrix5szE78bwMg_fWOS02JOQRWnM0krO0K0Xb-uHHcrtK1hHEbHJLbM9GNtSH60nP-zg/s604/carboxysomes.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="446" data-original-width="604" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU9MHsDRRbvEGhkGkRRRFDH7NSHc20aDwGDMP8lfY4iXQk2z5zx9fV1mqynBqAgzEjoN_un1lox5aBoixYzWZS07anfrjxBCNEGAoqh_KTB6RFsaXEqcBCrmFrix5szE78bwMg_fWOS02JOQRWnM0krO0K0Xb-uHHcrtK1hHEbHJLbM9GNtSH60nP-zg/w400-h295/carboxysomes.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Algae evolved similar mechanisms with pyrenoids. Without a carbon concentrating mechanism, Paleozoic phytoplankton species experienced limited growth. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">All modern phytoplankton have developed various CO2 concentrating mechanisms to survive in today's low CO2 world. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Experimental phytoplankton strains with dysfunctional CO2 concentrating mechanism just cannot survive. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As CO2 has declined over the last 20 million years several clades of land plants (yet still a small percentage of all species) have evolved a similar CO2 concentrating mechanism known as c4 photosynthesis. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In the upper sunlit euphotic zone, phytoplankton generate an abundance of dissolved organic matter and sinking particulate matter. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">That organic matter sustains an abundance of marine life in the complex food webs of the dark twilight zone. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeoHYcR9iwS8xJ0hOoK8ApObacfMd1svgquzjLhsfG0dPe3gisqQF8rAm7N_zQHYOml81fAjYl1oYELpkwPru7fV8lqeA_3YPsFOxMwcy3Zj3L3tX1lO32nhbiK40tzGnRwPScUgL1y56OIijs_m3OrWiAFGzKie17IsfhY0DqG-KrPmEzuz0qAPOOsA/s2887/twilight%20zone.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1819" data-original-width="2887" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeoHYcR9iwS8xJ0hOoK8ApObacfMd1svgquzjLhsfG0dPe3gisqQF8rAm7N_zQHYOml81fAjYl1oYELpkwPru7fV8lqeA_3YPsFOxMwcy3Zj3L3tX1lO32nhbiK40tzGnRwPScUgL1y56OIijs_m3OrWiAFGzKie17IsfhY0DqG-KrPmEzuz0qAPOOsA/w640-h404/twilight%20zone.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Today's oceans contain as much dissolved organic matter as exists in the earth's terrestrial ecosystems. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Several scientists had questioned the reliability of the phytoplankton blackout data because robust invertebrate communities persisted in the fossil record for longer times despite crashes in phytoplankton species. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, awareness of the bacterial loop, first published in 1983, has altered scientific thinking about ocean food webs. Before 1983, it was widely believed that only phytoplankton could directly sustain the zooplankton, and benthic animals. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNmLEgxut_x-Gvw_1E54ifI9Zp4hPNlT25NjRM2ZZ5sFBOMzbbdeQOS-3o3RN06C3RCy9zv7AtRqFy9sLseKy8UjqsQ6UlLl7cC3202TxZxFTKhYe6c6ItPLIPIlXPDUhr5JSkcFRr4tRQPfI60wSoMpAVgfcslMUFSNiLn1S0mOHOVa0Ln2gIglmOog/s2630/bacterial%20loop.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1691" data-original-width="2630" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNmLEgxut_x-Gvw_1E54ifI9Zp4hPNlT25NjRM2ZZ5sFBOMzbbdeQOS-3o3RN06C3RCy9zv7AtRqFy9sLseKy8UjqsQ6UlLl7cC3202TxZxFTKhYe6c6ItPLIPIlXPDUhr5JSkcFRr4tRQPfI60wSoMpAVgfcslMUFSNiLn1S0mOHOVa0Ln2gIglmOog/w640-h412/bacterial%20loop.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, it is now understood that the bacterial loop recycles dissolved organic matter and thus can maintain a substantial food web until the dissolved organic matter is depleted. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, unlike oxygen generating phytoplankton, the bacterial loop consumes oxygen and expands the oxygen minimum zones which coincide with the many deadly anoxic events of the Permian. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The complex interactions between, disappearing phytoplankton, cyanobacteria and bacterial loops resulted in the extinction of various Permian marine animals in various niches at different times. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Looking more closely at the stages of the Permian, begining with the ending of the Paleozoic ice age there were large losses in biodiversity with major extinctions during the earliest Permian stages. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Ammonoids had been declining for the Permian’s' first 30 million years with many going extinct 17 million years before the end pemican extinction. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By the Capitanian stage, 75% of the Permian coral families became extinct as well as 82% of coral species. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By the end Capitanian stage, 7-10 million years before the end Permian, 35 to 47% of all marine invertebrate genera had gone extinct. Many researchers now include the Capitanian extinctions as one of the earth's 6 great mass extinctions and separate it from the end Permian. The Capitanian extinctions happened in a cool climate and before the rapid rise in CO2 and the warming that some blame for causing the end Permian extinctions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">On land, North American coal deposits disappeared in the early Permian after the carboniferous rainforest collapsed. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxMVhXzeuha40xTaKkdOxd1OdAYC7B1oSOy8IW_KqyOeSqTKL7n45cjs_GT9ANan5LAoc8vYoWjBf55yVwIfIXXR796eTr4ddiv9O1d7c7eH8zBzGprcqFDkkfQiOVdGq2SuhoZY5Ynw57UElY-c9hPW9et8f9lyCkpNlKFFpjJBYqzDsFPSCwlP3IfQ/s2025/permian%20rainforest%20exrtinct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1755" data-original-width="2025" height="554" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxMVhXzeuha40xTaKkdOxd1OdAYC7B1oSOy8IW_KqyOeSqTKL7n45cjs_GT9ANan5LAoc8vYoWjBf55yVwIfIXXR796eTr4ddiv9O1d7c7eH8zBzGprcqFDkkfQiOVdGq2SuhoZY5Ynw57UElY-c9hPW9et8f9lyCkpNlKFFpjJBYqzDsFPSCwlP3IfQ/w640-h554/permian%20rainforest%20exrtinct.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Stressful atmospheric CO2 hovered between 150 and 700 ppm during the late carboniferous. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The lowest calculated values of 100 ppm would have been lethal for many Permian plant species and correlates with the disappearance of coal deposits. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Both laboratory experiments and paleontological evidence show most plant species respond to low CO2 concentrations by producing more stomata to increase CO2 diffusion into the plant. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However more stomata increase water loss and make the Permian plants more vulnerable to the increasing dryness throughout Pangea’s formation. As a result, minor plant extinctions happened throughout the Permian, starting with the Carboniferous Tropical Rainforest Collapse. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOIJ0qI7pt1R5EICu5UiGDsWAtiHKQw2ZDD_yoflObvNw3zo5-uJfHD-RPa0x1dJ7a52dcBlAUS1nAxnmHcGig5-s3rqOwZaUG4EZfLxideMgqYugezYxz2d0SH4rfjWu-i-9X_gahmH8FcvHoUGkxRgEGmApUAnnjFriKm6lP2-m92xBfFGrbI9iSCg/s4180/stomate%20vs%20co2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1485" data-original-width="4180" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOIJ0qI7pt1R5EICu5UiGDsWAtiHKQw2ZDD_yoflObvNw3zo5-uJfHD-RPa0x1dJ7a52dcBlAUS1nAxnmHcGig5-s3rqOwZaUG4EZfLxideMgqYugezYxz2d0SH4rfjWu-i-9X_gahmH8FcvHoUGkxRgEGmApUAnnjFriKm6lP2-m92xBfFGrbI9iSCg/w640-h228/stomate%20vs%20co2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The towering lycopsid rainforest trees went extinct leaving only related diminutive species requiring less carbon, some of which have survived until today and are frequently used in terrariums. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As moisture requiring species were extirpated and drought tolerant species increased, food chains were gravely disrupted resulting in the mid-Permian Olson extinctions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By the Roadian stage 45% of the plant species had gone extinct in the Chinese micro-continents. And by the Capitanian 56% had gone extinct. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Declining biodiversity reduces the probability of new species evolving that would otherwise balance out natural background extinctions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The formation of Pangea had a negative effect on biodiversity. Pangea removed unique niches from its converging island-like micro-continents. Studies of modern island biology have demonstrated how only a few species are genetically capable of producing a radiation of new species, and only when vacant niches are available. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The "oldest" existing volcanic Hawaiian island, Kauai, emerged about 5 million years ago which is about the time of the arrival of the ancestor of Hawaii’s honey creepers. Since then, one ancestor gave rise to at least 12 unique species, each evolving varied beaks to exploit Hawaii’s unique vegetation. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_5QTWEnD_QhzcTiczP_qxfWC38es_JAIaU0Ot1mQXoyq4tzqOffNNhTu8SQBUy2j0RAFU4e3UdG4PiVz_V6-C_kYIJR66meB9CarwQv-VoDpjj1KTEjVjxG4cyUfrGvxfIfT9_FeAh1BxBxiASzOcBZix0Nb1z9mCihf5FFH0w9TmnXgAY_HTJtpBrg/s1897/honeycreepers.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1544" data-original-width="1897" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_5QTWEnD_QhzcTiczP_qxfWC38es_JAIaU0Ot1mQXoyq4tzqOffNNhTu8SQBUy2j0RAFU4e3UdG4PiVz_V6-C_kYIJR66meB9CarwQv-VoDpjj1KTEjVjxG4cyUfrGvxfIfT9_FeAh1BxBxiASzOcBZix0Nb1z9mCihf5FFH0w9TmnXgAY_HTJtpBrg/w400-h325/honeycreepers.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Of the hundreds of continental vagrant species that ever arrived on the Hawaiian Islands, only a few remained and they only evolved small changes in size or color. But even fewer possessed flexible genomes that allowed successful speciation that could exploit unfamiliar but available niches. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Likewise, the ancestor of the Galapagos finches arrived about 2 million years ago on the volcanic islands and radiated into at least 14 unique species. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the early Paleozoic, in the Ordovician, many of today's continental land masses were just a multitude of separate large volcanic islands or micro-continents. Islands provided more coastlines with unique coastal niches for marine species. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicvQuHmdqIDa07iF5Fr5T-qzBSX_USFLy88_w6CAv2st3zN5YueSxAX3258bgKsT47z3_ZfoofAb3Xe39TiA0uYwnXkDFKYapGlfkA-rqvbf70GV0MJf6bHOoR_OAYqX_9eas9G2Xx3m_zH2wV4Ay2VaL44sNMF-E27FqAelVGbkKHVTlbpWYKwYQePQ/s2552/tectonics%20orovician%20to%20%20triassic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2200" data-original-width="2552" height="552" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicvQuHmdqIDa07iF5Fr5T-qzBSX_USFLy88_w6CAv2st3zN5YueSxAX3258bgKsT47z3_ZfoofAb3Xe39TiA0uYwnXkDFKYapGlfkA-rqvbf70GV0MJf6bHOoR_OAYqX_9eas9G2Xx3m_zH2wV4Ay2VaL44sNMF-E27FqAelVGbkKHVTlbpWYKwYQePQ/w640-h552/tectonics%20orovician%20to%20%20triassic.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">There were also more abundant shallow seas that readily recycled critical nutrients that would otherwise be sequestered in the deeper ocean. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The convergence of those Ordovician micro-continents into the fully united single continent of Pangea during the Permian, reduced coastlines, and the areal extent of shallow seas. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Pangea's formation also provided connectivity that allowed more competitive generalist species to invade and eradicate species living in previously unique niches of isolated islands. The loss of productive shallow seas exterminated the least productive species within those habitats. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And the loss of coastlines reduced the flow of water vapor from the ocean to the inland.
As Pangea consolidated, the continental interiors dried and inland species that had adapted to previous wetter climates became the first to go extinct, like the lycopsid trees of the carboniferous rain forest. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, species on the islands of north and south China persisted for millions of years later. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The drivers and timing of terrestrial vertebrate extinctions often differed from ocean extinctions. However, the ultimate drivers were still CO2 starvation and Pangea’s formation. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As plants colonized the land, global CO2 was further reduced to near lethal levels for algae by the end of the carboniferous, while oxygen levels rapidly increased to the highest levels ever in the earth's history, benefiting greater animal speciation. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN-lTcQiqv3I_MIWV0SfKxKDtUHOlmMUK5jFwJ7TLokaby4gceIezXeJrsigcNUOKmCsjOGKOesXdFGOozMf8uXqd2dYE9hMXaZM2XzhjFBbeCe35InM9icY1RXkIbhDlTvzmnQD8ffEHKW-efgNev8riB4eFGGzU7lwAmAQgL1qOjiOjfT7x9tw33Vg/s874/oxygenb%20evolution.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="874" height="522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN-lTcQiqv3I_MIWV0SfKxKDtUHOlmMUK5jFwJ7TLokaby4gceIezXeJrsigcNUOKmCsjOGKOesXdFGOozMf8uXqd2dYE9hMXaZM2XzhjFBbeCe35InM9icY1RXkIbhDlTvzmnQD8ffEHKW-efgNev8riB4eFGGzU7lwAmAQgL1qOjiOjfT7x9tw33Vg/w640-h522/oxygenb%20evolution.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The abundance of oxygen enabled an increase in terrestrial biodiversity as the more aquatic species could venture further onto the land and survive as sufficient oxygen simply diffused through their moist skin or via other forms of primitive breathing.
The legacy of these early evolutionary experiments is still seen in amphibian and reptile species that survive today. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Lungless salamanders still totally rely on simple diffusion through their skin for uptake of oxygen (orange bars) and removal of CO2 (green bars).
Many frogs and salamanders have aquatic larvae that breathe in water with gills, then metamorphose to air breathing adults with moist skin and primitive lungs ventilated by constant throat flutters. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9sSbUMLeQgaEl0oxVQj1bgOIv5mIlj8nw4DECT4A32S3f_R5og7oE_hzHZpXNDTTosOlPqi_EUsRd_b8TnSgze2RwzAJbA-xNwKo1g05zJRJdICpSZ7K_94SYom3A17tmKcW7W9mux_oqRlhyVBZxOQhSoo7-84YFfy362jwOXjEk-mDxE35zc0QQow/s671/skin%20bfeathing%20amphibs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="671" height="536" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9sSbUMLeQgaEl0oxVQj1bgOIv5mIlj8nw4DECT4A32S3f_R5og7oE_hzHZpXNDTTosOlPqi_EUsRd_b8TnSgze2RwzAJbA-xNwKo1g05zJRJdICpSZ7K_94SYom3A17tmKcW7W9mux_oqRlhyVBZxOQhSoo7-84YFfy362jwOXjEk-mDxE35zc0QQow/w640-h536/skin%20bfeathing%20amphibs.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Despite better evolved breathing mechanisms, many reptiles still supplement their oxygen via diffusion through their skin. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, oxygen concentrations plummeted during the Permian as the phytoplankton blackout, the rainforest collapse, and Pangea’s switch to less productive vegetation in drier conditions, had dramatically reduced the photosynthetic production of oxygen. Different clades of land vertebrates that had recently evolved in a climate of abundant oxygen, could not compete with species that had evolved more efficient breathing. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Insects rely on passive diffusion for breathing. The high oxygen concentrations enabled the evolution of the earth's biggest insects and centipedes during the carboniferous.
however, those giant insects were the first to go extinct as oxygen levels plummeted during the Permian. In fact, it was the only time our earth had ever experienced the mass extinction of insect clades. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirWJUZsRj8uOUFHQ8GlCj-To_inxpH8QpUPtgZT0H6dNKh-JkIfrbIT-PwXP8w5IgqcsK2D-b6_mdEvloJHewzXHcuCKxHucLyQbSyXSegO5bb0PP0F7wKVRfBKwaSEnBPJJ3Yv9s4SColBox3AawwlAChc_4Szl93dLLqUO4ilx_dEpzqaiPgo49G2Q/s468/permian%20insecrt%20extinct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirWJUZsRj8uOUFHQ8GlCj-To_inxpH8QpUPtgZT0H6dNKh-JkIfrbIT-PwXP8w5IgqcsK2D-b6_mdEvloJHewzXHcuCKxHucLyQbSyXSegO5bb0PP0F7wKVRfBKwaSEnBPJJ3Yv9s4SColBox3AawwlAChc_4Szl93dLLqUO4ilx_dEpzqaiPgo49G2Q/w640-h360/permian%20insecrt%20extinct.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Because true amphibian and reptiles had not evolved yet, and the varied characteristics of Permian vertebrates often blurred the line between reptile and amphibian, many Permian vertebrates are best referred to as just tetrapods (4- leggeds) or amniotes if they no longer needed to lay their eggs in water. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">One clade of amphibian-like animals, the lespospondyls, appeared in the carboniferous but were extinct by the mid Permian. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY0VqI3Ta_BvvuHDuUktwVRj_5gzrBoX2gf2LS4aVqzrqZ2ykTi6bv4WtUKj1GOfz_9R7Rt1-vK_TAY8_pBoW1PQBlvtRl0ruP50U04negYRA-0JoynpHxGHb5p-1oDvORTaSLJLQ-ocoTXZgPxiOTKyw4r972ddvuur6I6WxrPeNr6WOQ-6sdXY9N_g/s468/permian%20tetrapod%20extinct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhY0VqI3Ta_BvvuHDuUktwVRj_5gzrBoX2gf2LS4aVqzrqZ2ykTi6bv4WtUKj1GOfz_9R7Rt1-vK_TAY8_pBoW1PQBlvtRl0ruP50U04negYRA-0JoynpHxGHb5p-1oDvORTaSLJLQ-ocoTXZgPxiOTKyw4r972ddvuur6I6WxrPeNr6WOQ-6sdXY9N_g/w640-h360/permian%20tetrapod%20extinct.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Another clade of amphibian-like tetrapods also evolved in the carboniferous </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And some evolved reptile-like characteristics as well.
While some species also went extinct by the mid Permian, others survived into the age of dinosaurs. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Synapsids were reptile-like animals whose surviving species gave rise to mammals. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The pelycosaurs were sysnapsids that dominated the early Permian but went extinct by the mid-Permian. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdbiB8vnqVr-Ns5t23t3CjCzlyIIUfuI51fxUff6a8fA0Sk0Uz3paADdMqPA7u66qdStXcLCpIKmVcecvdoHv_AuhuYEHFjxPv9mzXOZZHX4S9Gl09YHSAlbLxaxZYUhZ_pGBmxDu2L1HDeYz1vEkUqxxF8DEnjJpijwTkMmksL7tst5Ly6jj-nlv8Hw/s468/pelcosaur%20extinct.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdbiB8vnqVr-Ns5t23t3CjCzlyIIUfuI51fxUff6a8fA0Sk0Uz3paADdMqPA7u66qdStXcLCpIKmVcecvdoHv_AuhuYEHFjxPv9mzXOZZHX4S9Gl09YHSAlbLxaxZYUhZ_pGBmxDu2L1HDeYz1vEkUqxxF8DEnjJpijwTkMmksL7tst5Ly6jj-nlv8Hw/w640-h360/pelcosaur%20extinct.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The dinocephalians were synapsids that replaced the pelycosaurs. But they went extinct by the Permian’s end Capitanian stage. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Diapsid clades replaced the synapsids in the mid-Permian.
This clade's more versatile genetics withstood the end-Permian extinctions and enabled the Mesozoic evolution of crocodiles, dinosaurs, birds, snakes, and lizards, many of which have persisted though today. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw0zPMiFkEmw1tRvgV2X5_JEuXLzpY2T8-XpWMqzar-yt-qAoLxmUQYWtweHlt3WvVnVRHfSeUrDUFk5Md3wmWjgocwhJ2EnDzpsnvRHHoDdtVkHv2iPERz3ORYeQN54DOg4nORV6PJTUWWXY0_3UaKSa_TugI4CgKMlwYPnueZNsMlRj2b3LStqvN_Q/s1530/reptile%20family%20tree.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="772" data-original-width="1530" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw0zPMiFkEmw1tRvgV2X5_JEuXLzpY2T8-XpWMqzar-yt-qAoLxmUQYWtweHlt3WvVnVRHfSeUrDUFk5Md3wmWjgocwhJ2EnDzpsnvRHHoDdtVkHv2iPERz3ORYeQN54DOg4nORV6PJTUWWXY0_3UaKSa_TugI4CgKMlwYPnueZNsMlRj2b3LStqvN_Q/w640-h322/reptile%20family%20tree.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In light of all the many extinction factors, the NY Times' promotion of only climate warming as the cause of Permian mass extinctions simply to maintain fear regards our current climate warming, is egregiously irresponsible.
The serial reduction of biodiversity for most clades from the Ordovician to the end Permian, strongly suggests CO2 starvation was a far more powerful ecosystem disruptor than periodic warming episodes. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The loss of 61% of marine biodiversity during the Ordovician glaciations, not only demonstrates the lethal power of colder temperatures, but also calls into question the role of CO2 as a temperature control knob. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV1RfijiS3PEvdu5Q-KYoFVg6GfWMm30Dfu_CxgPTQHSU5e7g-mecQGpOoosSAyJGRbIQlr3cv9MUVEiYm2meDgeItnHJ-Ne-BbGVFMA1JYwtBTieGXqEmWUvjV-0tUuVTcTaaeqDv5S5XFnaOCGF-bWo929TOTMkae8jtG51DeokUDt6XQVeuz2S-Lw/s2346/co2%20temperature%20ordivician%20highlight.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1466" data-original-width="2346" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV1RfijiS3PEvdu5Q-KYoFVg6GfWMm30Dfu_CxgPTQHSU5e7g-mecQGpOoosSAyJGRbIQlr3cv9MUVEiYm2meDgeItnHJ-Ne-BbGVFMA1JYwtBTieGXqEmWUvjV-0tUuVTcTaaeqDv5S5XFnaOCGF-bWo929TOTMkae8jtG51DeokUDt6XQVeuz2S-Lw/w640-h400/co2%20temperature%20ordivician%20highlight.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Ordovician icehouse happened when CO2 concentrations were ten times higher than today at 5000 ppm. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Some scientists argue solar output was 4% lower and thus counteracted any warming from high CO2. But a solar drop of 7 w/m2 of insolation, does not counteract 13.5 w/m2 of calculated greenhouse warming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The late Paleozoic icehouse has been attributed to falling CO2 concentrations, even though the glaciations were initiated in the early carboniferous when CO2 was about 2000 ppm.
Scientists have proposed other theories for glaciations happening under high CO2 concentrations, suggesting the formation of Pangea prevented warm ocean currents from moderating the polar climate of the southern hemisphere. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By cherry-picking the rise in CO2 only during the very end Permian, such blinkered analyses have allowed some researchers to echo the narrative that it was deadly CO2-driven global warming that caused end Permian extinctions and then fearmonger their conclusions to rant we're in danger of extinction from today's 1-degree Celsius warming climate. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, such theories totally fail to account for dead clades walking and the numerous extinctions that set the stage for the end Permian extinctions via colder conditions and CO2 starvation. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7gJ3OyLPGl8jOUCBWaNTps69dEj__IAno0OEV8g-_BBk16VUaEckwUaBquWXipZhHcnbsiBhjmQdeBcXVCxNfawXmw51PhHmx9rgWzyMokr5ez99DIG2w-qE92cGzaWRHoRI7XfzboDdZ6mSRdBH3K_dFvYlu9JJyYpJVpZ5C04SQtM3rBNxqmfSSQ/s4308/aesop%20warning%20gates.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1260" data-original-width="4308" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7gJ3OyLPGl8jOUCBWaNTps69dEj__IAno0OEV8g-_BBk16VUaEckwUaBquWXipZhHcnbsiBhjmQdeBcXVCxNfawXmw51PhHmx9rgWzyMokr5ez99DIG2w-qE92cGzaWRHoRI7XfzboDdZ6mSRdBH3K_dFvYlu9JJyYpJVpZ5C04SQtM3rBNxqmfSSQ/w640-h188/aesop%20warning%20gates.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, I encourage you to heed the warning from Aesop 2500 years ago.
We must avoid any remedy that is worse than the disease.
Rash attempts to sequester CO2 and lower its concentrations to levels approaching plant starvation, will prove to be disastrous. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Likewise, shun bill gates' "block the sun" proposals. Such lunacy will definitely disrupt the earth's life-giving carbon cycle and upset global productivity and devastate all ecosystems!
Scientists must take a closer look at how CO2 starvation caused the world's greatest extinctions and act accordingly. Furthermore, click-bait media needs to be shamed into honestly educating the public about all the science. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Thank you.
</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie2VN5G-w1Mjtk0xlKsZsS8Sl7Pl-pvbbvYrLSLQHe3JhWGIqCqNkgJ2BhxyoTYm2uhbi6NKVWBzqNYiYBXILf_ObXztTeUusONM5AZJ_QZ_7IFk9UDJQ6YZ18F8AA3FWPG5KfNQlNIg6jHABU0OakY083L0VTWk0ZW_mqsmZ4yDHuOb8IuBG0JxymmA/s1837/jim%20time%20to%20learn%20science.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="921" data-original-width="1837" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie2VN5G-w1Mjtk0xlKsZsS8Sl7Pl-pvbbvYrLSLQHe3JhWGIqCqNkgJ2BhxyoTYm2uhbi6NKVWBzqNYiYBXILf_ObXztTeUusONM5AZJ_QZ_7IFk9UDJQ6YZ18F8AA3FWPG5KfNQlNIg6jHABU0OakY083L0VTWk0ZW_mqsmZ4yDHuOb8IuBG0JxymmA/s320/jim%20time%20to%20learn%20science.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">For more superb educational climate science
Bookmark my YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/uc7xnhez2qcj_phf2mvdfk0q/videos </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> Or read the transcripts at
perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> Jim Steele is an ecologist and Director emeritus of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus, (whose research restored a critical watershed), author of Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to climate Skepticism, and proud member of the CO2 Coalition. </span></p>
<p></p></div></div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-7196197033865142282023-04-08T13:37:00.005-07:002023-04-08T13:46:53.964-07:00UCLA's Daniel Swain and NPR’s David Romero Collude to Flood Our minds with a River of Climate Fear Mongering!<strike></strike><strike></strike><strike></strike><p style="text-decoration-line: line-through;"> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center; text-decoration-line: line-through;"><br /></div><br /><p style="text-decoration-line: line-through;"></p><span style="font-size: x-large;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b>UCLA’s Daniel Swain and NPR’s David Romero Collude to Flood Our minds with a River of Climate Fear Mongering!</b></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-decoration-line: line-through;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibioxp2OtrBNWBIyZI0h5N3Y0dhc8Cfm8Ap3-taCqY05wPuS4MdevcSRCGzDz4-NwcRS17MDc_C_HSDblb-sDLOFj9aBjMe1-pk0r9iL__7bnGbAS7qjxKoViEYMssnyQ7pjem4l4Xfmf0IT4rPbJPC-HWbg3R5Sca5sA07H0lZ8BSPKXodIqN7N2LTg/s1425/flooded%20pajaro.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibioxp2OtrBNWBIyZI0h5N3Y0dhc8Cfm8Ap3-taCqY05wPuS4MdevcSRCGzDz4-NwcRS17MDc_C_HSDblb-sDLOFj9aBjMe1-pk0r9iL__7bnGbAS7qjxKoViEYMssnyQ7pjem4l4Xfmf0IT4rPbJPC-HWbg3R5Sca5sA07H0lZ8BSPKXodIqN7N2LTg/s1425/flooded%20pajaro.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="770" data-original-width="1425" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibioxp2OtrBNWBIyZI0h5N3Y0dhc8Cfm8Ap3-taCqY05wPuS4MdevcSRCGzDz4-NwcRS17MDc_C_HSDblb-sDLOFj9aBjMe1-pk0r9iL__7bnGbAS7qjxKoViEYMssnyQ7pjem4l4Xfmf0IT4rPbJPC-HWbg3R5Sca5sA07H0lZ8BSPKXodIqN7N2LTg/w640-h346/flooded%20pajaro.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">There have been many news articles about the human suffering caused by the floods that inundated the town of Pajaro in Monterrey County, California on March 11, 2023. But NPR’s article This Winter's Floods May Be 'Only a Taste' of the Megafloods to Come, Climate Scientists Warn was the most disgusting example of how Daniel Swain and National Public Radio dishonestly use any tragedy to fearmonger a climate crisis. Alluding to CO2 driven climate change Swain stated, “As disruptive as this year's events have been, we're nowhere near to a plausible worst-case storm and flood scenario for California.” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, the real story is about government ineptitude and the human risky penchant for building in natural flood plains. When California’s county lines were being drawn up in 1850 as California achieved statehood, the concern was not how to best manage a watershed, but the result of compromises between competing political interests. Thus, the Pajaro River and its main tributary the San Benito River became the dividing line between 4 different counties. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The town of Watsonville, in Santa Cruz County on the north side of the river, and Pajaro, in Monterrey County on the south side, were first developed by non-natives in the 1850s in the middle of the Pajaro River’s flood plain. Floods were common and inevitable. Each winter the returning rains turned the flood plain into a mosaic of meandering streams, marshes, ponds, and flooded fields. So, levees were constructed to prevent flood damage to buildings and agricultural fields. The first levees were built to protect the relatively wealthier town of Watsonville on the north side of the river. Still these levees frequently failed as evidenced by this man canoeing down Watsonville’s main street in February 1922. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikO9e3j4N-jwb-1HjNe1N_vLeuizGvV5f3hBH2XpxeFb0OtD67prNwZi3t_a0mYQbdzOz_oF49g1LHdLWE_d4csMIQ0LnygD1gdVztDYfmDFhU4_6GnQMziQIwj33sIgA5YTCNyou4YdDNDlLinREPyIVd4QJRDL8AjioW648KYLB7gmWDLtDAb0W23g/s728/WATSONVILLE%20FLOOD%20FEB%201922%20CANOE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="446" data-original-width="728" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikO9e3j4N-jwb-1HjNe1N_vLeuizGvV5f3hBH2XpxeFb0OtD67prNwZi3t_a0mYQbdzOz_oF49g1LHdLWE_d4csMIQ0LnygD1gdVztDYfmDFhU4_6GnQMziQIwj33sIgA5YTCNyou4YdDNDlLinREPyIVd4QJRDL8AjioW648KYLB7gmWDLtDAb0W23g/w640-h392/WATSONVILLE%20FLOOD%20FEB%201922%20CANOE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In the 1930s the US Army Corp of Engineers began drawing up plans to expand and rebuild the Pajaro River levee system but due to various delays the levees weren’t completed until 1949. Within only 10 years of levee completion in 1955 and 1958, two major floods exceeded the level design capacity. Unlike NPR, no honest scientist would ever suggest that climate change caused those failures within just 6 years of its design. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In 1963, the USACE acknowledged poor planning in levee design, and congress authorized re-construction of the flood control system, however no funds were provided from the federal government. Since 1949 seven major floods over the next 50 years exposed the flaws in the designs by these so-called flood control experts. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In an interview with the NY Times, Mark Strudley, the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency’s executive director said “federal, state and local officials had talked since the 1960s about the need to shore up the water infrastructure around the Pajaro River, but the property values in the area were so low that they did not meet the threshold for repair under the cost-benefit formula that the federal government and the Army Corps of Engineers were using. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">After winning several lawsuits regards the levee failures in the 1995 flood, politicians finally developed a new plan to rebuild the levee system, set to begin in 2024. But NPR simply pushed gloom and climate doom asking, “whether those plans will account for the changing climate and the increased frequency and ferocity of storms expected.” NPR ignored that the 2023 Pajaro flooding was undeniably caused by another failed levee which was largely due to the political battles regards how each county contributes to the maintenance and repairs of an aging levee system. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmLxBea2ZnkAWyCIub1x9y4OXFojn3ScxA-YR3VdE7LMSpNDD1slR0DHZUXF68_2gJhQci6iIQtQ7iZVAJL_pVTtYoxX28XzAAGje2l0Xkhu4z2OstteXdM-fEiGepfNMhgx0U-iP-kdiRtEOvrcuH1cpdDEJm4VZYSi3GTmlkRMdiRxA210-6FUuk-Q/s1989/pajaro%20river%20%204%20counties.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="930" data-original-width="1989" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmLxBea2ZnkAWyCIub1x9y4OXFojn3ScxA-YR3VdE7LMSpNDD1slR0DHZUXF68_2gJhQci6iIQtQ7iZVAJL_pVTtYoxX28XzAAGje2l0Xkhu4z2OstteXdM-fEiGepfNMhgx0U-iP-kdiRtEOvrcuH1cpdDEJm4VZYSi3GTmlkRMdiRxA210-6FUuk-Q/w640-h300/pajaro%20river%20%204%20counties.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The root of the political battles goes back to 1850 county boundaries. On the west side of the Pajaro Gap lies 2 counties comprising the river’s lower basin and on the east side another 2 counties that comprise upper basin. Most of the rainfall happens in the upper basin, then flows through the mountain gap into the floodplains of the lower basin to threaten Watsonville and Pajaro. The lower basin counties argue that the rapid urbanization in the upper basin had created an “asphalt effect” which increased runoff and river water volume. Thus, those counties should contribute the most money for levee upgrades in the lower basin. The upper basin blames the lower basin counties for not maintaining the levees and stream channels. For decades such squabbles delayed funding for improvements that could have definitely prevented the 2023 flooding. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But climate alarmists always push the scientific factoid that in a warmer world the atmosphere holds more moisture thus CO2 is causing bigger floods. But that factoid is totally irrelevant here. They ignore California’s rainy season happens during the cooler winter and historically the greatest amount of flooding in over a thousand years happened during the cold Little Ice Age. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And worse, NPR and Swain failed to share NOAA’s data showing global warming never caused the Pajaro River to reach flood stage. Pajaro River’s flood stage is set at a level determined by its history of numerous floods. The Pajaro River did not exceed historical levels that naturally happened during floods for the past century. The only honest attribution for the devastating flooding was that the people of Pajaro were victimized by political infighting between county governments who had agreed to maintain the levees needed for Pajaro to survive in this natural flood plain. Levees and government promises have long been known to give people a false sense of security, only to settle them into more dangerous locations. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIJ9jTPL5xCr66v1rvYYGrrO552wpxN2SykMyD8yHV6ewzVEaGzTEz-RP7NZnzW_QawNYAESPYHvF5fN1rl-iGt02OQcj0y6EH6U3DzT7uLy4fY3vFzn5YUIPWZMm6cxRAKbAMjlLV1Sf_wkf924YWN-0QZemlS2bqiJulJnGUFSLiWZg2OX9MPBLr7w/s423/PAjaro%20flood%20stage.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="366" data-original-width="423" height="554" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIJ9jTPL5xCr66v1rvYYGrrO552wpxN2SykMyD8yHV6ewzVEaGzTEz-RP7NZnzW_QawNYAESPYHvF5fN1rl-iGt02OQcj0y6EH6U3DzT7uLy4fY3vFzn5YUIPWZMm6cxRAKbAMjlLV1Sf_wkf924YWN-0QZemlS2bqiJulJnGUFSLiWZg2OX9MPBLr7w/w640-h554/PAjaro%20flood%20stage.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">NPR and Swain never addressed any of the natural and political issues leading to the flooding of Pajaro, incessantly choosing to fear monger climate change and push catastrophic speculation about the future. They interviewed Antonio Hueso, a 72-year-old retired farmworker, whose home was damaged for the 2nd time during levee failures. Hueso wisely said “I’m going to fix my house, and when people forget about the flooding, I will sell my house and move to Madera or Fresno”. Such a wise and simple solution of moving out of harm’s way didn’t fit NPR’s narrative, so in the radio version they added “But In a warming world will a move to higher ground suffice?”, as if the climate gods have warned us about coming floods of biblical proportions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Daniel Swain, who was groomed by climate alarmists Noah Diffenbaugh and Michael Mann, chose to rant that warming of the climate has doubled the likelihood of a mega-flood and every degree of new warming increases that likelihood even more. What was once considered unlikely to happen in our lifetimes “has become quite likely.” Swain wouldn’t be surprised if as many as four megafloods happened just in this century. “We're not necessarily talking about 100 years from now. We're talking about the next 20 or 30 years.” Of course, such catastrophic predictions have served Swain very well as he frightened California politicians into funding his flood-modeling project. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">NPR finished with an interview with Denia Escutia, a high school senior. “I think Pajaro deserves climate justice. I call this my home, but is it really my home if they don't want to help us?” Her final reply to NPR was her future is gone. Then NPR closed with one last scare tactic blaming broken levees on climate change by saying, “gone because the climate the levees were designed for no longer exists.” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And once again climate alarmists obscure the real problems and real solutions. It is disgusting! </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2hhakjbkV1izFQf1wroZSevTKoA_cldOlUih_E5AvcHQAvRdMDa48W8IDlvgP9GhORthmLykMDmZ1BTUEVWr3IBbrxqLcL9RWuWrLwuUk4iIzNljSxeb1ZDUFgVRoVsPlZt-DsREkdTNOfupCW4EIpBmzfk0v_VcpsN59iySCl5FiQ2C-FHXExN7SGQ/s300/honesty%20best.webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="300" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2hhakjbkV1izFQf1wroZSevTKoA_cldOlUih_E5AvcHQAvRdMDa48W8IDlvgP9GhORthmLykMDmZ1BTUEVWr3IBbrxqLcL9RWuWrLwuUk4iIzNljSxeb1ZDUFgVRoVsPlZt-DsREkdTNOfupCW4EIpBmzfk0v_VcpsN59iySCl5FiQ2C-FHXExN7SGQ/w640-h640/honesty%20best.webp" width="640" /></span></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-59665455413802630192023-04-05T17:45:00.032-07:002023-04-06T05:55:46.508-07:00Global Warming Greenhouse Theory’s Greatest Weakness<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-size: large;"><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Global Warming Greenhouse Theory’s Greatest Weakness</b></div></span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">This is the transcript for the video at https://youtu.be/XHLafd2MU-k<br /></span><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">
</span><p><span style="font-size: large;">Welcome back everyone. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">How long heat gets trapped near the earth's surface determines the global temperature, but the lack of adequately measuring this time delay is the greatest weakness in global warming theories.
</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">The public often gets the wrong impression of the greenhouse effect from illustrations like this suggesting CO2 is trapping heat forever. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg89V9Mjea4jXqBgkIGBG6_osK4HoPwDgBvdMXzbtAtKCHL-Zk8MpS0bhO-6KCvfNPlkUsHYTZVQtm44eNTRts-KG3DVLI_J0fj37OtLN235vd3nR5SRpVChorM6821tXtP0PtfynOeKS5uD5oeVsIHzTG_slnG6RcCTcqeW7iqsecauFD7VXlLoJldAw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="" data-original-height="330" data-original-width="517" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg89V9Mjea4jXqBgkIGBG6_osK4HoPwDgBvdMXzbtAtKCHL-Zk8MpS0bhO-6KCvfNPlkUsHYTZVQtm44eNTRts-KG3DVLI_J0fj37OtLN235vd3nR5SRpVChorM6821tXtP0PtfynOeKS5uD5oeVsIHzTG_slnG6RcCTcqeW7iqsecauFD7VXlLoJldAw=w640-h408" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">A comparison of the time delayed cooling by 3 different mechanisms of trapping heat, calls into question how each mechanism contributes to global temperatures and extreme weather.
Other heat trapping mechanism by sea ice, clouds, or urban surfaces, won’t be discussed.
Now undeniably, greenhouse gases delay the escape of infrared radiation back to outer space. . </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In contrast heat domes that produce heat waves don’t trap radiation but suppresses the normal convection process that normally carries heated air away from the surface for days and even months.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The ocean's salty sub-surface layers also suppress ocean convection, trapping ocean heat for days, seasons, and years. And that trapped heat intensifies hurricanes and typhoons. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In one of the 20th century's most influential books "the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Kuhn wrote “philosophers of science have repeatedly demonstrated that more than one theoretical construction can be placed upon a given collection of data.”
Kuhn was advising us to be careful and distinguish good data from the opinions claiming the data supports their pet theory. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">This illustration graphicly represents the collection of data describing how the energy absorbed by the sun each day escapes back to space via waves of long wave radiation. It is solid, undisputed science based on theory and observations from satellites and laboratory experiments. It is the foundation of greenhouse theory upon which opinions regarding various climate crisis theories have been constructed. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhuZ7sMLiE4NDo-Z1BYMR9viVKmvimNmTmP-JkxGmhfzYxtb9uvuuRnXUZ6cOnHj1u5XgWj82QGfAiTiO_ng-HUdrDi4u5BxMTT0eWIObosG5xXX16t6d2Y0VcmHOTf0Rjb1Tdnntb9wtwxIM0xFpufzfsRHnYM0AAPkE_ZbLK1TXiwUTabHeUBSIWgQw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1503" data-original-width="2873" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhuZ7sMLiE4NDo-Z1BYMR9viVKmvimNmTmP-JkxGmhfzYxtb9uvuuRnXUZ6cOnHj1u5XgWj82QGfAiTiO_ng-HUdrDi4u5BxMTT0eWIObosG5xXX16t6d2Y0VcmHOTf0Rjb1Tdnntb9wtwxIM0xFpufzfsRHnYM0AAPkE_ZbLK1TXiwUTabHeUBSIWgQw=w640-h334" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The laws of physics have theoretically determined "how much" energy each infrared wavelength should transport back to outer space, for a given surface temperature if, there was no atmospheric interference. This is represented by the blue curve. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">For non-physicists, it is helpful, to think of infrared wavelengths as roadways carrying solar heat from the earth back to space. Wavelengths between 20 and 15 microns should act like interstate highways carrying the greatest flow of heat, </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">While wavelengths of 5 or 40 microns act like dirt paths allowing very little heat transport. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The black jagged line represents how much energy each wavelength is actually transporting back to space as observed by satellites. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The difference between the blue and black curves represents an undeniable greenhouse effect. This is all excellent data and settled science. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">But beware! This data does not determine for how long infrared heat will be trapped. Greenhouse gases only serve as detours, not permanent traps. Those detours simply delay the time needed for heat to escape to space. Not understanding this crucial point, has led to many absurd theories of a climate crisis, mass extinctions and much weeping and gnashing of teeth. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">CO2 is a powerful greenhouse because it absorbs wavelengths centered around 15 microns that serve as major interstate highways for heat escape. CO2 forces half the theoretical heat to take a detour. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">CO2 emits any absorbed heat in less than a second and emits those wavelengths in all directions with half re-directed back to the earth's surface. It is this redirected heat that is believed to warm the surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In this illustration the green line separates absorption by CO2 from absorption by water vapor. The red line shows that by doubling CO2, it only increases the amount of re-directed heat by 1%.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Water vapor absorbs much more heat from a wider range of wavelengths. Dry desert climates lacking water vapor experience a reduced greenhouse effect. Heat can escape more freely so that nighttime temperatures rapidly plummet by 50 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, despite a remaining CO2 effect. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">More importantly, there are also wavelengths that always escape freely to space, providing an atmospheric window that allows about 15 to 20% of the earth's energy to escape without delay. That window also provides the escape detour for re-directed greenhouse heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Although the redirected energy is transported by specific wavelengths of water vapor and CO2. It has a more general effect. A warmer surface now emits the entire spectrum of wavelengths. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">So, 20% of CO2's redirected energy now escapes freely through the atmospheric windows counter-acting the warming. That process repeats and continues throughout the night dropping surface temperatures lower and lower, back to their early morning minimums. So, despite added energy, the greenhouse effect doesn’t trap heat for very long. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Extreme heatwaves caused by heat domes operate in a manner like a car with its windows raised. It doesn’t matter how heat is radiating back to space, but for how long warm air is trapped close to the surface. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg30APtMsBWoHZ1TU0syBrWp3JYRz2XXmrHFmfZOsdTtdXEUynbcQ2aGWpT93lIxrVOqAv7i7qpuKYcCKiE5QXQf2To9gn_I5gjBxn6UnGz1Ne70Tu4_eJjAWMSafyIhAXo6rx2_LiAv4LmiF3oYNPmJpwIiNoHzfD5M7D9Mv4wACZd2E0hMPb1dc77dQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="" data-original-height="368" data-original-width="838" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg30APtMsBWoHZ1TU0syBrWp3JYRz2XXmrHFmfZOsdTtdXEUynbcQ2aGWpT93lIxrVOqAv7i7qpuKYcCKiE5QXQf2To9gn_I5gjBxn6UnGz1Ne70Tu4_eJjAWMSafyIhAXo6rx2_LiAv4LmiF3oYNPmJpwIiNoHzfD5M7D9Mv4wACZd2E0hMPb1dc77dQ=w640-h282" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The longer the windows are up during midday sunshine, the higher the temperatures rise.
At midday in 80F heat, temperatures inside your car can rise by 43 degrees to 123F in just one hour. Tragically, not realizing how quickly heat can accumulate, pets and children left in cars can die. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">To reach 123 degrees Fahrenheit, the car's rate of energy gain was at least 154 W/m2 for a full hour (FYI a watt is a measure of energy per second).
Increased CO2 only adds about 2 W/m2, so it would be silly to argue that rising CO2 made the car hotter, when just lowering the windows would eliminate the extreme temperatures.
The important dynamic for people to understand is suppressed convection causes extreme temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The ground, heated by solar radiation, sheds that heat in 3 ways: by emitting a spectrum of longwave radiation, by cooler air absorbing heat when contacting the ground, and by convection that carries the heated air towards the stratosphere.
Without convection, the earth's surface would trap surface heat like the car with its raised windows. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Convection not only causes warmer air to rise but allows cooler air from higher altitudes to sink. The mixing of cooler air further reduces surface air temperatures. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmcrn_KODRXT185Y8c9Z4TqoidlpRYtPTR1nL4WVrg1ChGhV4220mHDyZZFKF-VDxIbXblzRK2CALrHkmRTrzYti89JXuhZYAjFm6VvsMjqBwKxk-nrKp_zG_J1mDgChaC2hPZOm6ZE2S-eDvuRFMRz74NKdatOYoLIwxJyoz3lFXS66MwTcu1a5jK3w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1420" data-original-width="2264" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmcrn_KODRXT185Y8c9Z4TqoidlpRYtPTR1nL4WVrg1ChGhV4220mHDyZZFKF-VDxIbXblzRK2CALrHkmRTrzYti89JXuhZYAjFm6VvsMjqBwKxk-nrKp_zG_J1mDgChaC2hPZOm6ZE2S-eDvuRFMRz74NKdatOYoLIwxJyoz3lFXS66MwTcu1a5jK3w=w640-h402" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Carrying warm air up to the stratosphere is also crucial for cooling. You can see where the stratosphere begins when a rising rain cloud flattens out as it reaches an altitude where the stratosphere begins, called the tropopause. At that altitude, the air is about 100F (64C) cooler than the ground. The air has cooled due to both lower air pressure and by radiating heat back to space.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_fnlKfNSIXlGuuMaUpOG9KDn8sOirCcgbtarKShD2NiqW3EvNP0QrnS8nqASXpLYKVvjGjMiKF2IKi6BtyqN9bivyh_4f-O7GvSchaks5HYQhgAaRjGvlpSnzFjJSiSOf7BxXbmWeD8g9kbpAyNtWJvV8X9IQ7vl8mB3jSfrrtOXoCrwohSG1rC8Ixg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1420" data-original-width="2108" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_fnlKfNSIXlGuuMaUpOG9KDn8sOirCcgbtarKShD2NiqW3EvNP0QrnS8nqASXpLYKVvjGjMiKF2IKi6BtyqN9bivyh_4f-O7GvSchaks5HYQhgAaRjGvlpSnzFjJSiSOf7BxXbmWeD8g9kbpAyNtWJvV8X9IQ7vl8mB3jSfrrtOXoCrwohSG1rC8Ixg=w640-h432" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">However, if the air doesn’t radiate heat away, cool air would simply warm back to its original temperature as it sinks. So, how does 99% of the air molecules that are not greenhouse gases, mostly oxygen and nitrogen, radiate away the heat they absorbed from contacting the ground? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">C02's warming effect is greatest at low altitudes where it is largely saturated. So future increases of CO2 will have a smaller and smaller warming effect. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Unfortunately, click-bait media rarely informs the public that CO2 also has a strong cooling effect increasing emissions in the stratosphere and mesosphere.
Satellites observe that the stratosphere is cooling twice as fast as the lower atmosphere is warming. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi37llWkFBtXq5KA97L1C9EtZwoEfmww6r71wENjTJ2-3YD6Aey4ja7beCsbNx-5PmBYcCPr0Xxk5z5zVrzW9ZowGQjGGfQojvqh_mLc9TJSS773m1T6Z7PRXzVgOXpa4NlsCf-lwc5vbz-tlHm_In3P4dCy-Az2ydnlRCiLuwBgkkmr2_w-D4W4qoYDA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1540" data-original-width="2140" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi37llWkFBtXq5KA97L1C9EtZwoEfmww6r71wENjTJ2-3YD6Aey4ja7beCsbNx-5PmBYcCPr0Xxk5z5zVrzW9ZowGQjGGfQojvqh_mLc9TJSS773m1T6Z7PRXzVgOXpa4NlsCf-lwc5vbz-tlHm_In3P4dCy-Az2ydnlRCiLuwBgkkmr2_w-D4W4qoYDA=w640-h460" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Warmed oxygen and nitrogen can shed their heat by colliding with CO2 and transferring its heat. So, CO2 can then radiate their heat away. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In contrast, heat waves are caused by suppressed convection in the lowest 6 kilometers of the atmosphere that prevents rising air from reaching the stratosphere and cooling radiatively.
Heat domes trap heat for days. They are high pressure systems where sinking air inhibits convection and reduces cloud cover which also increases solar heating. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0pdv_oChbMxsfJwlrCpPE0VNGTndrKkPbpk2tjSZv2PUdeY0mkFPGHEdDLMVU8skkcaSjnufflyNksmduEZ-J4dQKjkakeFklbXOXxC8ODxlzjSKtb1cXK6iXhl25MEIvOcG-0YYKsj1928DDHzGDrC830f7s77t4h7O-yim7ueVFfHKRpPhSYt9KPg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="952" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj0pdv_oChbMxsfJwlrCpPE0VNGTndrKkPbpk2tjSZv2PUdeY0mkFPGHEdDLMVU8skkcaSjnufflyNksmduEZ-J4dQKjkakeFklbXOXxC8ODxlzjSKtb1cXK6iXhl25MEIvOcG-0YYKsj1928DDHzGDrC830f7s77t4h7O-yim7ueVFfHKRpPhSYt9KPg=w640-h488" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Canada's record high temperature was set and reset 3 days in a row at the end of June 2021 in Lytton, British Columbia. The final record was 45F (25C) warmer than the average maximum temperature for June. A difference that's intriguingly like the increased temperature of the car with its raised windows. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Southwestern Canada’s heat wave was caused by an exaggerated ridge in the jet stream known as an omega block. Omega blocks regularly cause high-pressure systems that linger in one location. As the block remained in place for days, more heat accumulated each day driving Canada’s record temperature higher and higher. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgB7vF34CMChOLsqsCi7d2Q3oNYbNsZ9dEkj8KqLcgbZm7vU1o4iMQIKGlhmLgZZI7_DAJXC02GfjSc8XcynoD-Tp_JYG8cicb4OWAYvLZTUvU_MpOFqrQUifIz5wPveg4FXe1rS_Qa40tg8ecAi6-cEz5N9mcykgU00JXHdawg4xt9HHdf-KaOuHm8bQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="480" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgB7vF34CMChOLsqsCi7d2Q3oNYbNsZ9dEkj8KqLcgbZm7vU1o4iMQIKGlhmLgZZI7_DAJXC02GfjSc8XcynoD-Tp_JYG8cicb4OWAYvLZTUvU_MpOFqrQUifIz5wPveg4FXe1rS_Qa40tg8ecAi6-cEz5N9mcykgU00JXHdawg4xt9HHdf-KaOuHm8bQ=w640-h414" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Click-bait media, like CNN clearly doesn’t know its geography. They ranted that this very local heat dome was evidence that "climate change is frying the whole northern hemisphere." </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">However, science doesn’t support CNN’s rants as climate models all suggest any warming "should reduce such blocking events." </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSS1XnPdBVE-eUTrqzdXIPocVBLKtIYPuFPJFwNnzNqTyx0beFYeBlz9_YVAIhidqGqDQEArXwI3UL8XZq7cfD9_yVe9skJbctBoeDEqKhUAFtHdjD-V45qWvT3D6MSznuMX54HuUpAab2nOLPBYCSlyZ8D7X7wj2astrecFiT8I55gdX9GjDScifmmQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="940" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSS1XnPdBVE-eUTrqzdXIPocVBLKtIYPuFPJFwNnzNqTyx0beFYeBlz9_YVAIhidqGqDQEArXwI3UL8XZq7cfD9_yVe9skJbctBoeDEqKhUAFtHdjD-V45qWvT3D6MSznuMX54HuUpAab2nOLPBYCSlyZ8D7X7wj2astrecFiT8I55gdX9GjDScifmmQ=w640-h422" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Finally, if we also consider that the dryness accompanying most heatwaves reduces the normal greenhouse effect, plus the absolute lack of any correlation between heat waves and rising CO2 as seen in this EPA graphic, it suggests that all the hype by politicians and the media ranting heat waves are evidence of a CO2 driven climate crisis, is just unsubstantiated fear mongering. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7FogjF8quFcmo2MK7MeOr3lS666idWsrma-6VmGamUhbPdaMt5-F2tcsnCe9sGyHZgZNV2ObYkeCDiNsGMBzm0BFQTslOCo2AUCRjapZ5G4Huhk_7tNFnjhcaQ7X8JZOdUVwyavPd2TcOh70yUHIy7QVCQvexm5OPy74E---HXfmMJ46GqDUR0--CnA/s928/heat%20waves%20EPA%202021.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="928" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7FogjF8quFcmo2MK7MeOr3lS666idWsrma-6VmGamUhbPdaMt5-F2tcsnCe9sGyHZgZNV2ObYkeCDiNsGMBzm0BFQTslOCo2AUCRjapZ5G4Huhk_7tNFnjhcaQ7X8JZOdUVwyavPd2TcOh70yUHIy7QVCQvexm5OPy74E---HXfmMJ46GqDUR0--CnA/w640-h388/heat%20waves%20EPA%202021.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Lastly, suppressed convection also warms the oceans causing layers of trapped heat that can warm the air and intensify hurricanes and typhoons. There is a scientific consensus that no matter at what depth heat is absorbed, it is trapped in the ocean until it rises to the micron-thick skin surface, the only place ocean heat can escape. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">However, when there is a salinity gradient with fresher water at the surface and saltier water below, despite being warmer, the denser saltier water suppresses convection, preventing it from reaching the skin surface to cool. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Humans have taken advantage of that salinity effect by creating solar ponds that generate useful heat to warm buildings and greenhouses or generate electricity.
Solar ponds maintain a bottom layer of dense salty water at about a 6 to 10-foot depth where solar heating is greatest. Those dense layers trap penetrating solar heat, raising the bottom layer temperature to as high as to 190F (88C) despite air temperatures of only 68F (20C). </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgr8TlbJC2u6iXEHbmAXXPo4C7USgg22P7Aw6qRjjbVVjLDynn0w2BLc9jVIyahdT5GDr78tEd2VXKUs_zg95obCNgbKwfUAPttHouICxSdO6b4UaFabiD-j4HP2JYCSik6y60Dbzh9Nwv5WkSfmgwsGXMjz-JHfMwBKwsWiRdptawYeOL8jfQJCbATXg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1815" data-original-width="2167" height="535" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgr8TlbJC2u6iXEHbmAXXPo4C7USgg22P7Aw6qRjjbVVjLDynn0w2BLc9jVIyahdT5GDr78tEd2VXKUs_zg95obCNgbKwfUAPttHouICxSdO6b4UaFabiD-j4HP2JYCSik6y60Dbzh9Nwv5WkSfmgwsGXMjz-JHfMwBKwsWiRdptawYeOL8jfQJCbATXg=w640-h535" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Similarly, salinity gradients in the ocean trap heat in subsurface layers maintaining warmer ocean temperatures from the tropics to the arctic. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Surveys in tropical oceans observed that the upper 20 to 40 meters will usually be well mixed by the winds and currents. So that layer has similar salinity, represented here by the blue line. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As well as similar temperatures represented by the black line. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJIl-o5EKgDW3hIvIB3huYhw4M-jcs9uS1kY9Yn0sylL49vBYX_Nv5ZxP6-9MNlXv3Mcyk47L6I_-AyEGyrckia-aLftP_QLessd3F5pZt7LIwZAxUSLXEMEh-7PFeJh0rfMiybUHeMNWw7BppxqZNoLdNnjkGHbOpT7SF4GiXIKIarej-khmUOD0nmw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1815" data-original-width="1892" height="614" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJIl-o5EKgDW3hIvIB3huYhw4M-jcs9uS1kY9Yn0sylL49vBYX_Nv5ZxP6-9MNlXv3Mcyk47L6I_-AyEGyrckia-aLftP_QLessd3F5pZt7LIwZAxUSLXEMEh-7PFeJh0rfMiybUHeMNWw7BppxqZNoLdNnjkGHbOpT7SF4GiXIKIarej-khmUOD0nmw=w640-h614" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">But between 40 and 60-meters depth, increased salinity trapped solar energy and slightly increased temperatures where we would otherwise expect cooler temperatures due to declining solar penetration. Oceanographers call this layer the "barrier layer" because it stores heat and prevents colder deeper water from mixing with the surface layer, thus making surface temperatures warmer. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In contrast to the solar-salinity heating effect, there is no obvious mechanism demonstrating how greenhouse infrared might warm a solar pond or the ocean.
All infrared energy re-directed towards the surface by greenhouse gases never penetrates deeper than a very few microns into the ocean's skin surface layer. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhW7Rw-TAVXCQD22U5IBcJhX5BcPn-tNPutSS_GgJbvtc7XFSIR-sFT-lt9WUa2pW6xuFqbVQ9pNmnAlDKzSfjW99OHb5-8_4TmW3Xn9OH-yi-didlO6JbGD11WwIhS-kUfvmVhSAy77Ak25uf0gZjIcnA04XFRJgGNMEAF49bpha_rlLUHEywfogHWYg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1457" data-original-width="2465" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhW7Rw-TAVXCQD22U5IBcJhX5BcPn-tNPutSS_GgJbvtc7XFSIR-sFT-lt9WUa2pW6xuFqbVQ9pNmnAlDKzSfjW99OHb5-8_4TmW3Xn9OH-yi-didlO6JbGD11WwIhS-kUfvmVhSAy77Ak25uf0gZjIcnA04XFRJgGNMEAF49bpha_rlLUHEywfogHWYg=w640-h378" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">A recent tropical ocean study measured 410 watts of greenhouse infrared energy penetrating a few microns into the cool skin surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">However, the cool skin surface immediately radiates away all the heat that reaches that layer. In this study the heat emitted from the skin layer accounted for all the infrared heat from the atmosphere plus any solar heated subsurface water that had risen by convection and conduction to the skin layer. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Solar heated water requires more time to reach the skin surface and ventilate. Thus, it is most likely that any ocean warming is driven by trapped solar heat that is mixed downward. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">There are well studied natural mechanisms demonstrating how oceans create and maintain salinity gradients that trap subsurface solar heat. In the simplest of terms, regional differences in evaporation and precipitation produce the required salinity gradient. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMv7SIB4Bt7sOJWmTTWAb80wdl5l21dPfhb3xgCni-uWwho8Ouc037SvT_D5rNEfzVh47FxcQYVUNOEYNkAMHWE6EqW6Ecfvrm8dRm8RI6N5jTzu73wwfmlojfaeIy0XN9BDmfUTCQDsMf2D_7juN7XrGiGjwB__F1aP00-L4UEmZYcLejiZzR4yglmQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="939" data-original-width="3377" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgMv7SIB4Bt7sOJWmTTWAb80wdl5l21dPfhb3xgCni-uWwho8Ouc037SvT_D5rNEfzVh47FxcQYVUNOEYNkAMHWE6EqW6Ecfvrm8dRm8RI6N5jTzu73wwfmlojfaeIy0XN9BDmfUTCQDsMf2D_7juN7XrGiGjwB__F1aP00-L4UEmZYcLejiZzR4yglmQ=w640-h178" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Atmospheric circulation, the Hadley Circulation, creates regions of descending air and high pressure that generate clear skies, greater solar heating as happens in heat waves and high rates of evaporation with very little rainfall. Saltier water is produced there. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As illustrated by the red regions, these so-called ocean deserts happen at the same latitudes where the atmospheric Hadley Circulation maintains deserts on land. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyf_z3eHgp47cOHGPrGRGzYfwm6IwnGxkC5jbeXz5mCv5lL5xZXU_VE2enmfFDu-3DLPe78dku5Xybt7yiNRP1H16XA28gq9cr_fYCAsWkYdlvfS6HK9xSODMg_IjiMJklzWNQG30oQlWZqKHPmjbW0izq-hYxN6K1IycrbAZvuGTpTZ7Nfo15EIT5UQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="325" data-original-width="982" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhyf_z3eHgp47cOHGPrGRGzYfwm6IwnGxkC5jbeXz5mCv5lL5xZXU_VE2enmfFDu-3DLPe78dku5Xybt7yiNRP1H16XA28gq9cr_fYCAsWkYdlvfS6HK9xSODMg_IjiMJklzWNQG30oQlWZqKHPmjbW0izq-hYxN6K1IycrbAZvuGTpTZ7Nfo15EIT5UQ=w640-h212" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The trade winds then blow that saltier water towards the equator and westward. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The trade winds also blow the evaporated water vapor towards the equator where it converges, then rises and produces the world’s greatest region of rainfall around the equator, here represented in blue, and named the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The copious rainfall maintains the salinity gradient with fresh water on top of the warm saltier water. These combined dynamics constantly provide the needed ingredients to produce permanent heat trapping barrier layers. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEik3DwssEt7nX7-eKflm5EDE_6fNY58Sg3-Xt6BYbwQi07QH1GOAlqjXhbuKfhzNn5Mi3JAQ7BMmMG_KvN6bE7xHLaoltpqdCialiIz_4ZrRmfE5U0rLCbkrIsMH0O9TiGIrzAlqqiPugDPXujgKzBOVDWpPyG-cxuZe6ghBqXzzCS3RytcnzO9ixYg_A" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="985" data-original-width="2516" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEik3DwssEt7nX7-eKflm5EDE_6fNY58Sg3-Xt6BYbwQi07QH1GOAlqjXhbuKfhzNn5Mi3JAQ7BMmMG_KvN6bE7xHLaoltpqdCialiIz_4ZrRmfE5U0rLCbkrIsMH0O9TiGIrzAlqqiPugDPXujgKzBOVDWpPyG-cxuZe6ghBqXzzCS3RytcnzO9ixYg_A=w640-h250" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">This "solar pond" heat trapping mechanism forms the earth's greatest reservoir of heat, the western pacific warm pool, which stores solar heated water as deep as 200 meters. The warm pool grows during La-Nina like conditions and shrinks when an El Nino event ventilates that heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">During La Nina-like conditions, the amplified trade winds blow the warm salty water into the western pacific warm pool. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Simultaneously, colder deep water upwells in the eastern pacific, permitting a high-pressure system to form that amplifies the trade winds and creates clearer skies and greater solar heating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">As a result, the eastern Pacific and eastern Atlantic, illustrated here by the blue regions, </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJMozm-J_brlXcfUkQjKFzTonk4_mJJbL3fvtT24FzFgZvJZQj2StduEy1I0h8u1aiTjb2LDI-UtymW65tlIyTC2uKwuIGNNB912SD-bZ3o4z52Iso9UNQQZjaN1lWRDWz2xVBFliOlKn_R98TcfVmFvsTOP80orgAekqK0C-2iLmsOqQTRmGgXwopnQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1031" data-original-width="2497" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjJMozm-J_brlXcfUkQjKFzTonk4_mJJbL3fvtT24FzFgZvJZQj2StduEy1I0h8u1aiTjb2LDI-UtymW65tlIyTC2uKwuIGNNB912SD-bZ3o4z52Iso9UNQQZjaN1lWRDWz2xVBFliOlKn_R98TcfVmFvsTOP80orgAekqK0C-2iLmsOqQTRmGgXwopnQ=w640-h264" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: x-large;">Absorb and trap more solar heat than any other regions on earth.
That stored heat is eventually transported around the world where it ventilates and warms the atmosphere.</span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The regions illustrated in red represent where the most of that trapped heat ventilates, warming those latitudes several degrees higher than possible if there was no ventilated heat.
</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">For example, heat ventilating from the Gulf Stream is why western Europe’s winters are milder than similar latitudes in North America by 27-36F (15-20C</span><span style="font-size: x-large;">).</span></p><p></p><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">These dynamics contribute to the recent 150-year global warming trend as the tropical Pacific’s predominant El Nino-like condition during the little ice age switched to a predominant heat-absorbing La Nina-like conditions this past century. Intriguingly, based on scientific estimates of the speed of the global conveyor belt's transport,
heat now ventilating in the arctic and reducing sea ice may have first been trapped in the Pacific Ocean 200 years ago. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">It is also the trapped heat in tropical warm pools that enables tropical storms to evolve into hurricanes. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFvre-3T3-o4rz-liGXVCuZjc5vhVfAbsE-NHg4j0rukWUt-xTpUB5Ch6X5JOAOKTZIohdI0tV2zpOmwrf3OoVZlDLniYX19zMKxGXBDjHqadStue02S3lhB8lWyoQApuRzIcZzl0VidHl_JEtqKAkkrNBo0Pmv3v_nUy-ikYE-wlceDsM6wB1TbbQqg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1443" data-original-width="1727" height="535" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiFvre-3T3-o4rz-liGXVCuZjc5vhVfAbsE-NHg4j0rukWUt-xTpUB5Ch6X5JOAOKTZIohdI0tV2zpOmwrf3OoVZlDLniYX19zMKxGXBDjHqadStue02S3lhB8lWyoQApuRzIcZzl0VidHl_JEtqKAkkrNBo0Pmv3v_nUy-ikYE-wlceDsM6wB1TbbQqg=w640-h535" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">And the pacific warm pool with its more permanent barrier layers enables hurricanes with the most intense wind speeds designated as category-5 hurricanes, to develop. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Uniquely, in the tropical south Atlantic, hurricanes virtually never form because waters heated in the tropical south Atlantic circulate across the equator and get stored in the north Atlantic warm pool. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">In 2005 three category 5 hurricanes struck the United States prompting a flurry of click-bait media headlines proclaiming global warming was making more fierce hurricanes that also "intensify more rapidly", thus rising CO2 will continue to make hurricanes more deadly. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">But examining the different 2005 storm tracks of hurricane Wilma or hurricane Katrina
reveals those 2005 hurricanes only reached a "fierce" category 5 status for a very short time and over just a very small local area and not when making landfall. Thus, it is regional ocean warming that is much more likely to be the cause of any intensification bouts. Not global warming. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSfU6tfKzTX47VSe2Z7xzpRNR9bpldOflJL2LXL35gURYQDGBXrIMeSZsS6rn872gSZzzIE_v0zHZrFGwTo9FtWAGwQkgHnmnOv6c2VUR0DsbGV0XKW0QobfCOl3RzaJg09ivkCXfXhlQLZa4UsZv78Q31_vjDdc12C7qqHcoYA4uUEp9de8wl_bt5TQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1425" data-original-width="2594" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSfU6tfKzTX47VSe2Z7xzpRNR9bpldOflJL2LXL35gURYQDGBXrIMeSZsS6rn872gSZzzIE_v0zHZrFGwTo9FtWAGwQkgHnmnOv6c2VUR0DsbGV0XKW0QobfCOl3RzaJg09ivkCXfXhlQLZa4UsZv78Q31_vjDdc12C7qqHcoYA4uUEp9de8wl_bt5TQ=w640-h352" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Political fear mongers do not hesitate to weaponize the societal damage and human grief caused by hurricanes, so they cherry-pick the brief category 5 stints to blame rising CO2, while ignoring the dynamics causing hurricanes to exist for most of their lifetime in much weaker conditions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Fortunately, mother nature quickly counter-acted the blatant fear mongering.
For the next 9 years the USA experienced no intense hurricanes leaving most climate experts without any explanation. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Despite persistent click-bait media headlines from the NY Times or national public radio claiming CO2 is making hurricanes more deadly, </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Good solid science finds no correlation with rising CO2 and hurricane frequency. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1K4P8IJS4RUHiasDgIs7KsWVSqsT13inWZ6mQIPCpKtXbI2bW3hNtsb51tdbRG0SIOu80H9GuqULdYcWvDXzcTU4E-CxU4KjIjIowz7jojPgfrNoC1LzqMURtaoE6Ltq5YIW4lkz66HecTreZqusoNpKkA_BL6kr8xKd_1330bZMFfS-k66591ZGNlA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1595" data-original-width="2548" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1K4P8IJS4RUHiasDgIs7KsWVSqsT13inWZ6mQIPCpKtXbI2bW3hNtsb51tdbRG0SIOu80H9GuqULdYcWvDXzcTU4E-CxU4KjIjIowz7jojPgfrNoC1LzqMURtaoE6Ltq5YIW4lkz66HecTreZqusoNpKkA_BL6kr8xKd_1330bZMFfS-k66591ZGNlA=w640-h400" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">And no correlation with any increased frequency of the most intense hurricanes, categories 3, 4 & 5. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Yet as expected, the 150 mph winds at landfall from the 2022 hurricane Ian, provided an opportunity for the Guardian and world’s worst alarmist climate scientist, Michael Mann, to fear monger, claiming a climate crisis is causing more powerful hurricanes.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjKuggf85gnetoRR0C3N2_IVkYdPRsIZRyrQHuB4l5921sDc3HspCW4-8Yn21_bX4dOad7gdkvV3T3yq0tGibT99V-M-sX5PBLZnMeVG3Uo17VrLr5RBIn9fRBB_ml-B62CQgfdzEDEn4d1NkEyz6FE7frUJv_o5PlEkhvvHe2fxGpdO2A1QHg4ztxq8g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2415" data-original-width="1682" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjKuggf85gnetoRR0C3N2_IVkYdPRsIZRyrQHuB4l5921sDc3HspCW4-8Yn21_bX4dOad7gdkvV3T3yq0tGibT99V-M-sX5PBLZnMeVG3Uo17VrLr5RBIn9fRBB_ml-B62CQgfdzEDEn4d1NkEyz6FE7frUJv_o5PlEkhvvHe2fxGpdO2A1QHg4ztxq8g=w445-h640" width="445" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Ian was a category 4 when it made land fall along the western coast of Florida. Mann emphasized that Ian was the fifth strongest hurricane to ever make land fall in America.
But Mann avoided sharing the inconvenient truths that Ian was tied with 5 other category 4 hurricanes such as the 1919 Florida Keys and 1932 Freeport hurricanes, or the strongest landfall was the 1935 category 5 Labor Day hurricane. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Mann also failed to share that numerous peer-reviewed studies have documented that short bouts of hurricane intensification happen when they passed over the stored heat in ocean barrier layers. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea experience a shifting mosaic of warm barrier layers.
Multiple studies have shown that barrier layers supply the heat needed to intensify a hurricane as well as preventing the typical upwelling of cooler deeper water that weakens a hurricane.
Still to push his pet theory that all things are possible with rising CO2, Mann’s Guardian article never mentions barrier layers at all. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">To produce the salinity gradient for a barrier layer, the Amazon, Orinoco, and Mississippi rivers supply seasonal plumes of fresh water, highlighted in blue, into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjnaGe7rX9rgOQDxpPXQQgOcL3n50LoNL5zhtsZWYPXo7Q96XBxT59eW5cZErLYNFlyGDC3btpm7NLt375nYTDJ5KlTj_WDy-nwQCaiO7OJPU0AvdLKt_x1rmdH5NkjUm5fLg68Y2dyBdhH2tS1rztyMWRC-vFWAK6Uwj6JvTuBxAsgdollgxnsBxG3kQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="2048" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjnaGe7rX9rgOQDxpPXQQgOcL3n50LoNL5zhtsZWYPXo7Q96XBxT59eW5cZErLYNFlyGDC3btpm7NLt375nYTDJ5KlTj_WDy-nwQCaiO7OJPU0AvdLKt_x1rmdH5NkjUm5fLg68Y2dyBdhH2tS1rztyMWRC-vFWAK6Uwj6JvTuBxAsgdollgxnsBxG3kQ=w640-h402" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">The Loop Current erratically transports deep warm & salty equatorial waters northward towards the Gulf coast. It sometimes veers quickly to the east to join the Gulf Stream. Or 2) it sometimes loops much further northward and 3) sometimes those loops pinch off to form warm eddies. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZ08DueI_N0vkytsBbzx3eg6JEhsdvjsvVTe21FVvjikr7G55DA3hU5mclmb1LMZ1O_HiHzUdB5jyXFRjQr7rCFDzl-Bt98xQP1wqkpTVP3wOtOvI10lmw9tGzoJ837H2JrfiA2ku3ORdLH5oLjEzyVov7uLg5YUwhlzxaNtoUy-pk-YhXJEN_WDmPDQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2341" data-original-width="3908" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiZ08DueI_N0vkytsBbzx3eg6JEhsdvjsvVTe21FVvjikr7G55DA3hU5mclmb1LMZ1O_HiHzUdB5jyXFRjQr7rCFDzl-Bt98xQP1wqkpTVP3wOtOvI10lmw9tGzoJ837H2JrfiA2ku3ORdLH5oLjEzyVov7uLg5YUwhlzxaNtoUy-pk-YhXJEN_WDmPDQ=w640-h384" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Whatever the case, when hurricanes pass over a region with fresh river water above and warm salty loop current waters below, the hurricanes intensify. No wonder Michael Mann avoided discussing barrier layers, barrier layer formation and thus hurricane intensification has nothing to do with rising CO2 or a climate crisis. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">Clearly, there are many proven scientific dynamics that trap heat and drive warmer temperatures other than rising CO2. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkPhZydLZPBWAL_Sfd8X97AWJVAoLFXlCr6L2gU3GH0yf19ne9PVefSs3pTiJP0m0J0GucE5QoxdwxYZQmn4xn3Gx34406INVMa24VvE0cycLmIcXNwPpfPkJwYqTxmETjD-ouobgbKpiE8LwbzAcDVQNDF2e-MDrgb6QuwNeJKpJcp8Mu-YNFDzAOFQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1440" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkPhZydLZPBWAL_Sfd8X97AWJVAoLFXlCr6L2gU3GH0yf19ne9PVefSs3pTiJP0m0J0GucE5QoxdwxYZQmn4xn3Gx34406INVMa24VvE0cycLmIcXNwPpfPkJwYqTxmETjD-ouobgbKpiE8LwbzAcDVQNDF2e-MDrgb6QuwNeJKpJcp8Mu-YNFDzAOFQ=w640-h300" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;">If you follow all the science, you will sleep much better knowing claims of a CO2 driven climate crisis is most likely just a flawed theory placed upon good scientific data!
By following all the science, I am sleeping well! </span></p>
<p></p><p></p></div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-80764090304269021882023-03-19T15:37:00.011-07:002023-03-19T15:41:03.801-07:00The Science of Dryness and California’s Droughts<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This is the transcript for the video The Science of Dryness and California’s Droughts viewd at </span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yknjuizJP6Y</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;"><b>The Science of Dryness and </b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;"><b>California’s Droughts</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Here I will deal with how people are being misled by a toxic mix of scientific truths re-framed by false narratives.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqgCMhAj9GanYdejdHkAjUTif5jPR1isbx-sAk3ibLrKsWprKIDYMcbi2Irz0nmOMv-hkHs2N3qOh6Z8FNeTaqHw6MXxQLXIUXpy0D2AA23beJ3RJiIQVMBY19p9FKaACWtkIG7joHYLpSu-PfVsMjn8kMzFuQGXWppUH_nwlNR8zo4o9AHs_9ZbfdUQ/s1380/EXPOSE%20LIAR.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="1380" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqgCMhAj9GanYdejdHkAjUTif5jPR1isbx-sAk3ibLrKsWprKIDYMcbi2Irz0nmOMv-hkHs2N3qOh6Z8FNeTaqHw6MXxQLXIUXpy0D2AA23beJ3RJiIQVMBY19p9FKaACWtkIG7joHYLpSu-PfVsMjn8kMzFuQGXWppUH_nwlNR8zo4o9AHs_9ZbfdUQ/w400-h156/EXPOSE%20LIAR.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Increasing CO2 undeniably re-directs more energy back to the earth's surface increasing the earth's potential warming.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, as easily demonstrated in this video, increasing CO2 is not causing more drought and wildfires</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Physicists have reliably determined that CO2 is increasing the earth's warming potential by about 2.5 watts per meter squared. That science is indeed settled. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, how it will affect earth's climate is definitely not settled.
Depending on the earth's sensitivity, different scientists hypothesize a doubling of CO2 concentrations since the mid 1800s has the potential to raise global temperatures somewhere between 1.5 to 4.5 Celsius. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So far, CO2 has only increased by about 40%.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2kD5lBzmdhCvGzgeHP3NleV_VzDxNRdiPMeTJ5H7w2ftG2v1ECk4kymS5DF3kmRtdtkWdao6u8HXCGsukXNbKm9bBBy5fdmydiIQ_Tq8YH2sLRPQtMPfUnuCPR7BvhU4r2QOSViA5cHzalVf7MensYURjHtPdY99Of1LUQQrFaPmsjDWcDtaa1UeTDg/s4125/HIROSHIMA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="4125" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2kD5lBzmdhCvGzgeHP3NleV_VzDxNRdiPMeTJ5H7w2ftG2v1ECk4kymS5DF3kmRtdtkWdao6u8HXCGsukXNbKm9bBBy5fdmydiIQ_Tq8YH2sLRPQtMPfUnuCPR7BvhU4r2QOSViA5cHzalVf7MensYURjHtPdY99Of1LUQQrFaPmsjDWcDtaa1UeTDg/w640-h200/HIROSHIMA.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, to convince you that a 1 degree rise in a hundred years is deadly & dangerous, politicians like Al Gore repeat claims by alarmists like climate scientist Jim Hansen, that CO2 is adding the equivalent of 600 thousand Hiroshima bombs each day. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To justify that ridiculous scary narrative, they simply multiplied CO2's 2.5 watts per meter squared by the earth's 500 trillion square meters of surface area and then multiplied that result by over 86,000 seconds. Finally, they ignore how much energy quickly escapes back to space. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> At the 2023 World Economic Forum a desperate Al Gore claimed those bombs were boiling our oceans. He must believe the public is stupid or just too scared to think critically. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The average temperature for the earth's oceans is about 4ºC, just 4% of the temperature need to boil water! Even the warmest hot spots on tropical ocean surfaces only reach 33% of the boiling point. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">If your kids or friends have been terrified by such lies, I suggest doing a real scientific experiment in your own home. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The average ranch house has a living room that is about 31 square meters large. A lamp with a 100-watt light bulb, will provide about 3.2 W/ m2 of energy to that room, a little more energy than currently being added by CO2. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Seal the living room off from the rest of your house and only use that light bulb to warm the room during the winter. It will be very clear that 2.5 watts/square meter is not providing dangerous heat nor preventing dangerous cold. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Click-bait media profits from cherry-picking disasters, fear mongering and misinforming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">For example, in November 2022 CNN announced California’s climate crisis is intensifying and taking a heavy toll on residents. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsqDEir5jOLFjg5Eqb8sAG9wcZOfKzwKm5zOjhdPU6857DdoJkdeEUIs6xvjR9iE5M-oXYNbCB_EOsHp8E4EWZ-MFP00IxxeBI85kMJ6B3LNtYZmZx6rQkb32lz0vP-h8VinyPtXSqSkKEHd7A4ZvbaJw6qorac9G2u8J4QO8obK-gaD2rUMldRajUSQ/s1106/CNN%20DROUGHT.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="1106" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsqDEir5jOLFjg5Eqb8sAG9wcZOfKzwKm5zOjhdPU6857DdoJkdeEUIs6xvjR9iE5M-oXYNbCB_EOsHp8E4EWZ-MFP00IxxeBI85kMJ6B3LNtYZmZx6rQkb32lz0vP-h8VinyPtXSqSkKEHd7A4ZvbaJw6qorac9G2u8J4QO8obK-gaD2rUMldRajUSQ/w640-h324/CNN%20DROUGHT.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
Reading on, they reported the stark reality of climate change in California is clear: record high temperatures, unrelenting drought and unprecedented wildfires.
</span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">I've addressed the wildfire misinformation in earlier presentations.
Just google "Understanding Wildfires and How We Must Adapt" or "Setting Senator Whitehouse Straight on Climate and Wildfires"</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Because climate alarmists can only claim that wildfires are getting worse because rising CO2 is raising vapor pressure deficits and drying out the land, this video focuses on the causes of drought and dryness. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">First, using the Palmer Drought everity Index, an EPA time series for the United States contiguous 48 states, shows absolutely no trend in droughts for the last 125 years.
The worst drought conditions happened in the 1930s. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmamnKCOePrr8litKcMRp4oAsrswzFhc1pReurat7O_FSgE3yyZ9TOJjpdF5ab7xb5-M-nJIU1VqSn9hnpEda-0AiHwE1LWSvfezpmxDxZw15GwuXryDADMgD6dpWaOsc9k2oZ9YuiQJe0MiaQzWRRdtf7vCIA0-k09qulDtISZ60GzMQMiYWxOmbi9Q/s2685/USE%20DROUGHT%20TREND.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1837" data-original-width="2685" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmamnKCOePrr8litKcMRp4oAsrswzFhc1pReurat7O_FSgE3yyZ9TOJjpdF5ab7xb5-M-nJIU1VqSn9hnpEda-0AiHwE1LWSvfezpmxDxZw15GwuXryDADMgD6dpWaOsc9k2oZ9YuiQJe0MiaQzWRRdtf7vCIA0-k09qulDtISZ60GzMQMiYWxOmbi9Q/w640-h438/USE%20DROUGHT%20TREND.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Looking at 100-year regional trends, there have been fewer droughts in the eastern half of the United States. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The only region with a significant drying trend is California and the American southwest where drying due to La Nina-like conditions have the greatest impact. </span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNgK3l7LELvfgV3ujTAZ2jc-BHdbHWdJX0oTE8N3u2iDWN0r6zm4tZC0fl3qv1xJcOl259JpW7LLSoi3tq4rtdi4BsX0tFjaA6FyJrPHKZgxVBfKWgF69ElZIbxdZaMJOBLfjJkbj5hHD3S6jaStCmdWUDCf2QAqI5jQZcgOZC7jxcEj7eiz1uNlzX6w/s1636/REGIONAL%20DROUGTH.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1090" data-original-width="1636" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNgK3l7LELvfgV3ujTAZ2jc-BHdbHWdJX0oTE8N3u2iDWN0r6zm4tZC0fl3qv1xJcOl259JpW7LLSoi3tq4rtdi4BsX0tFjaA6FyJrPHKZgxVBfKWgF69ElZIbxdZaMJOBLfjJkbj5hHD3S6jaStCmdWUDCf2QAqI5jQZcgOZC7jxcEj7eiz1uNlzX6w/w640-h426/REGIONAL%20DROUGTH.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And that drying trend will be greatly reduced with another year of data as California’s 2022-2023 water year is experiencing record high rain and snowfall. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Using tree rings of the Blue Oak, a moisture sensitive tree growing in the Sierra Nevada foothills, rainfall variability can be extended back to the 1300s. Yet again, there is no long-term drying trend. The 21st century is not experiencing any unusual precipitation trends, also called meteorological drought. </span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK9VeeV7kIt012sesL5rUYelzJ4kvBg5gBfYhXOxbn5hYKttPRK5gWzMW72eckzq9xx8w2pW9HvyV4RU-Ycn-RnaGZYRQo7gJfkNGuQy6Vi0ZBdbBnLqedekjSvVZrIm2Aibr2tDaJzeQFBa1gRmGmqsvqRcvSbFpwEQP4Zgg3UdYoNu-8BWo9O5Sm-w/s4381/BLUE%20OAK%20PSDI.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2163" data-original-width="4381" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK9VeeV7kIt012sesL5rUYelzJ4kvBg5gBfYhXOxbn5hYKttPRK5gWzMW72eckzq9xx8w2pW9HvyV4RU-Ycn-RnaGZYRQo7gJfkNGuQy6Vi0ZBdbBnLqedekjSvVZrIm2Aibr2tDaJzeQFBa1gRmGmqsvqRcvSbFpwEQP4Zgg3UdYoNu-8BWo9O5Sm-w/w640-h316/BLUE%20OAK%20PSDI.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Similarly, NOAA modeled the Palmer Drought Severity Index back for the past one thousand years. This metric evaluates agricultural drought and soil moisture nonetheless they determined worse droughts happened when CO2 concentrations were much lower than today</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">NOAA's data on California’s annual rainfall since 1900 also shows no trend. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, there is absolutely no correlation at all with rising greenhouse gases. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH2RtWQ7dwVOUAXFsNLKHUmgoAMm_JVtyzzU8NNWLAld7veUt8RtzciKNnfUoNHyDd1eyWbHI_J4LdfkeLb7y16r5vx53X3L_TdEgIPQI90r7Pup6i5Jhi9wzVJSxiKFjlPflRCNPIG841oxIiC0CLvo1gQSE4KX16QmnhDTk5g5EXLB1OoQxDpbAG4Q/s4060/PRECIP%20VS%20GREENHOUSE%20GAS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1260" data-original-width="4060" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH2RtWQ7dwVOUAXFsNLKHUmgoAMm_JVtyzzU8NNWLAld7veUt8RtzciKNnfUoNHyDd1eyWbHI_J4LdfkeLb7y16r5vx53X3L_TdEgIPQI90r7Pup6i5Jhi9wzVJSxiKFjlPflRCNPIG841oxIiC0CLvo1gQSE4KX16QmnhDTk5g5EXLB1OoQxDpbAG4Q/w640-h198/PRECIP%20VS%20GREENHOUSE%20GAS.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">There are better correlations with the all-natural Pacific Decadal Oscillation which refers to the 20–30-year switches between El Nino-like and La Nina-like ocean conditions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Paradoxically the narrative on how rising CO2 concentrations raise temperatures depends partly on increasing moisture, not increasing drought. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Here is the suggested mechanism.
First, rising CO2 adds about 2.5 watts of energy and potentially raises air temperatures.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2w91sieubRZ8j9kkvJeKUqCHA1DW-hz-9aCIziFgAQloLwUTKZBplzXGaG3tpjM-Rl2zB1ZzFTrjoNx93IJBO5R5keYr1VpSN5chvTvPAgzRwRWlW5EqL8ROBgkXfvZmH1EgTpdQiLEtoKg2oU5uRqxnecIIYWL23wm4QhV6E6ALfG5UIS_TzxIPe2Q/s1146/CO2%20WARMING%20WATER%20VAPOR.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="778" data-original-width="1146" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2w91sieubRZ8j9kkvJeKUqCHA1DW-hz-9aCIziFgAQloLwUTKZBplzXGaG3tpjM-Rl2zB1ZzFTrjoNx93IJBO5R5keYr1VpSN5chvTvPAgzRwRWlW5EqL8ROBgkXfvZmH1EgTpdQiLEtoKg2oU5uRqxnecIIYWL23wm4QhV6E6ALfG5UIS_TzxIPe2Q/w640-h434/CO2%20WARMING%20WATER%20VAPOR.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The air holds more moisture as temperatures rise. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Increasing water vapor is a greenhouse gas that amplifies that temperature increase by 1.7 times. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Despite the small temperature change, some very impressionable people who never think critically, become convinced that climate change is causing human extinction. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Those impressionable pawns of climate alarm have been misled by many so-called experts, such as those at the National Science Foundation funded UCAR Center for Science Education. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Their website writes-that global warming is causing "more evaporation, so there is more water in the air, so there will be more intense rainfall causing flooding. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNjrfcxus0-nALkV6sACgWV7lBHGX8MtAiq1HS53vV6kMFNxPSQxfpJqH3Wppjs6htpXG_YC5Asnjwd23RV4JuhHmOBvJM3lWV6GvReLVqvS0Rht2XMxYtavO3VsqYuyaS2hLEKTLD5RTGaqkZ5JeBODYCZk2-oAZN6UJK2pUe__r6TTPp6DpboimuaQ/s336/JUST%20BELIEVE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="336" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNjrfcxus0-nALkV6sACgWV7lBHGX8MtAiq1HS53vV6kMFNxPSQxfpJqH3Wppjs6htpXG_YC5Asnjwd23RV4JuhHmOBvJM3lWV6GvReLVqvS0Rht2XMxYtavO3VsqYuyaS2hLEKTLD5RTGaqkZ5JeBODYCZk2-oAZN6UJK2pUe__r6TTPp6DpboimuaQ/w400-h238/JUST%20BELIEVE.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But under the category that all things are possible if you just believe in the government</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Their very next paragraph states the opposite dynamic where "more evaporation turning water into vapor causes drought".</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Thus, we are inundated with a pseudo religious scientific claim that with "CO2 all things are possible".</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Our impressionable and vulnerable children then become depressed falsely believing rising CO2 is destroying their future with both floods and drought! </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast, drier and warmer weather happens when greenhouse warming is most reduced. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Scientific consensus shows drier land causes higher temperatures, as measured in California’s Death Valley or the deserts of the Sahara and Middle East. Those deserts have been created by atmospheric circulation that brings dry weather. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUXgMk9tL6K0x1AqEED2jqRTsstrP68tzAnC9fb-lswCkS6hCx8L50e5PPdHEawAPj4q_yNmB57lNw3z4ZJufTtNBz9sWaskYMhMAuWbsIUXn4tKP7BkggAjvOwGsjpIzwUv_V6NlXe20QKwD32zI9EuOXnN7huXpTvFCx9l4EUQW5N_HgleSlh36evg/s468/WET%20VS%20DRY%20WEATHER.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUXgMk9tL6K0x1AqEED2jqRTsstrP68tzAnC9fb-lswCkS6hCx8L50e5PPdHEawAPj4q_yNmB57lNw3z4ZJufTtNBz9sWaskYMhMAuWbsIUXn4tKP7BkggAjvOwGsjpIzwUv_V6NlXe20QKwD32zI9EuOXnN7huXpTvFCx9l4EUQW5N_HgleSlh36evg/w640-h360/WET%20VS%20DRY%20WEATHER.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Wet weather has more clouds and water vapor. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">More clouds have a cooling effect by reducing solar heating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">More water vapor promotes more evaporative cooling.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But because water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas, absorbing 3 to 4 times more heat than CO2, water vapor increases greenhouse heating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Still those combined dynamics show wet weather results in cooler temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Dry weather however brings clear skies and reduced water vapor.
That increases solar heating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Less moisture reduces evaporative cooling further warming the surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Reduced water vapor reduces greenhouse warming, </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Thus, dry weather increases temperatures when greenhouse warming is most reduced. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Due to powerful moisture effects, there is no need for an increase in solar or greenhouse radiation to account for rising temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">First, to be clear, joules are simply a measure of energy, and watts are a measure of how much energy is delivered each second. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, to put joules into perspective, it takes 4.18 joules to raise a gram of water by 1 degree Celsius. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But a whopping 2,257 joules are required to convert a gram of liquid water to water vapor. And despite absorbing that much energy, there is no change in temperature, which is why evaporation causes latent or "hidden" heating. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuGEXXomM-IX2FfzXs1WWwE5-h4HLKan8Xi9Tb_PrlNPiVATNT2475vl93tJLqBj_SkvddYOep8b92KTDbFq554LZaND4M5EawihWCJQ0E9T2gjkMvywRkiSyXJQ5ihGkS4sU4BnNaz_ZE-lfWhqy2rITwEFEAxGJOqSpTORW48tp4wY3sPCdKUmYnag/s1975/LATENT%20VS%20SENSIBLE.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1975" data-original-width="1961" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuGEXXomM-IX2FfzXs1WWwE5-h4HLKan8Xi9Tb_PrlNPiVATNT2475vl93tJLqBj_SkvddYOep8b92KTDbFq554LZaND4M5EawihWCJQ0E9T2gjkMvywRkiSyXJQ5ihGkS4sU4BnNaz_ZE-lfWhqy2rITwEFEAxGJOqSpTORW48tp4wY3sPCdKUmYnag/w636-h640/LATENT%20VS%20SENSIBLE.png" width="636" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When there is no water to vaporize, all that energy will quickly raise air and soil temperatures.
It only takes 1 joule to raise a gram of air by 1 degree Celsius. Because that energy input can be detected as a rising temperature, it is called sensible heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It is the shift from latent heat to sensible heat that accounts for the increasing soil and air temperatures as the soil dries. Soil temperature can rise by 10 degrees Celsius as the soil goes from 30% to 0% moisture content. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Air temperatures are primarily governed by contact with the ground.
Air that contacts warm surfaces rises, allowing cooler air above to sink and warm. This convection loop determines the air temperatures used in climate science. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Accordingly, several scientific studies show the strong relationship between air and soil temperatures. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtUhZY_wwSvYcRfvl5jdpgsZNtiot_5ykA4QzQjkquiad9Yf4Phnh9nNvcsU8Ivcjh8b2vOCuKHzZmgE64JUcZIjMjEs0wNb_s_QcpkYbGTY1SjyIrfbJ0DoE1S7SG1N9RS61cvx5iMsvVKfOQi4tvMLsAJCf0U0zDch7vGR8TWLNBfYazeMQ2ySl6FQ/s4161/soil%20air%20temperature.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1732" data-original-width="4161" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtUhZY_wwSvYcRfvl5jdpgsZNtiot_5ykA4QzQjkquiad9Yf4Phnh9nNvcsU8Ivcjh8b2vOCuKHzZmgE64JUcZIjMjEs0wNb_s_QcpkYbGTY1SjyIrfbJ0DoE1S7SG1N9RS61cvx5iMsvVKfOQi4tvMLsAJCf0U0zDch7vGR8TWLNBfYazeMQ2ySl6FQ/w640-h266/soil%20air%20temperature.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Human groundwater extraction lowers the water table and can reduce soil moisture, hasten the arrival of the local wilting point and preventing further transpiration, while shifting temperature control to greater sensible heating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Stress from ground water depletion further amplifies the Southwest’s vulnerability to dryness and resulting warming</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8TNj21YByJZv0l9szGUEXnG43mUAoXCRlvQ7HOoS_MOBmrUxLYRodP0oUnuWJyj8bC-cl058VMswL7xZmSZLeegYbxgUNXVWWbZncV5ZhkVlxyFGQFdnYwqd5DvRDyw3_Ma3WNp8nw-YWH4heeAWC2dugAeRJCI2oZSeyCI65voLJcjrmGm_dgTe5NA/s324/GROUNDWATER%20EXTRACT.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="250" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8TNj21YByJZv0l9szGUEXnG43mUAoXCRlvQ7HOoS_MOBmrUxLYRodP0oUnuWJyj8bC-cl058VMswL7xZmSZLeegYbxgUNXVWWbZncV5ZhkVlxyFGQFdnYwqd5DvRDyw3_Ma3WNp8nw-YWH4heeAWC2dugAeRJCI2oZSeyCI65voLJcjrmGm_dgTe5NA/w494-h640/GROUNDWATER%20EXTRACT.gif" width="494" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Urbanization further reduces soil moisture and removes cooling vegetation driving the urban heat islands.
Climate scientist Dr Roy Spencer has presented evidence from his research showing that Urban Heat Island effects are largely <b>indistinguishable <i></i></b>from any theoretical CO2 driven warming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Similarly, dog lovers concerned about dangerous surface heat that could burn their dogs' paws present this warning: </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When air temperature is at 95 F, </span></p><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXu283yMdA0CqK5ClhlYuiPGh7G1-iq7ZyxnxIhBn0MlTNPt-txbtzWoZTVzrE-BtAlADdbtTtM7JMnV_72uH5Ai5fWrUV2hkvDcU03I2Y8MqyMNG9dSY17XRtqRmN6BAS6pN_rX4Jk6RauZqLCzOwwVm8k9bKQlbTF6oJB9tuPDjh2PwdxZ8VRyZ17Q/s523/HOt%20pavement.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="214" data-original-width="523" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXu283yMdA0CqK5ClhlYuiPGh7G1-iq7ZyxnxIhBn0MlTNPt-txbtzWoZTVzrE-BtAlADdbtTtM7JMnV_72uH5Ai5fWrUV2hkvDcU03I2Y8MqyMNG9dSY17XRtqRmN6BAS6pN_rX4Jk6RauZqLCzOwwVm8k9bKQlbTF6oJB9tuPDjh2PwdxZ8VRyZ17Q/w640-h262/HOt%20pavement.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
Dry black asphalt reaches 140 F, while lighter colored cement reflecting more sunlight, only reaches 125 F.
</span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As asphalt and cement increasingly covered urbanized areas more surface temperatures increased by 35 to 50f higher than surfaces with living grass. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Weather stations in the Global Historical Climate Network are becoming increasingly urbanized and skewing global temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Only 13.2% of all GHCN weather stations can be called truly rural, where natural warming is best measured. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In addition, airport weather stations with their asphalt and cement runways and parking lots are increasingly becoming the backbone of weather stations in the climate network.
So how often are alarmist scientists and click bait media incorrectly attributing warmer temperatures and natural droughts to rising CO2?? </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7sBRePW74Jr_aMUNyCrLzJPmwiDTCu_H21TyDeU8tm_Pg9rh4mstcoSqHChUJCIW_4LpFXs_Aw12n8VIbuHU3SHfZ_xmUNksv5_DYkuXaW0Wa0ResvLBj3ezPf9J8SQgwFtioOkWeS0ShvwlLm_Nq6k37yALMzbtrF4eK0Sjo9EeGZNa-1O2TUsU17g/s2387/airport%20weather%20station.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="2387" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7sBRePW74Jr_aMUNyCrLzJPmwiDTCu_H21TyDeU8tm_Pg9rh4mstcoSqHChUJCIW_4LpFXs_Aw12n8VIbuHU3SHfZ_xmUNksv5_DYkuXaW0Wa0ResvLBj3ezPf9J8SQgwFtioOkWeS0ShvwlLm_Nq6k37yALMzbtrF4eK0Sjo9EeGZNa-1O2TUsU17g/w640-h224/airport%20weather%20station.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Democracy depends on a better-informed public. A public succumbing to fear mongering and lies only opens the door for bad solutions and government tyranny. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Thank you
</span></p></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-33362014680858202432023-03-07T13:59:00.018-08:002023-08-24T19:00:16.992-07:00Setting Senator Whitehouse Straight on Climate & Wildfires<p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"> </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia;">T</span><span style="font-family: georgia;">his is the transcript for the video </span></b><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>Setting Senator Whitehouse Straight on Climate & Wildfires</b></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07juDXNa72M</span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Not enough politicians are honestly educating the public about the science of climate change and wildfires.</span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggCtjENiVwOc9YrluqaBNsx3acR9D9NWfVgiBQrSJ9IpEZOnMtIGYDLzGWvGziaJVdsgXvuy4jfmzSPgDqBKTJGo3spu_zabPEvfNI9HpYo8B1LIyCoCoF3--2uwAHywPUTShKadolNz4up7qhN69URDa4Hcpqb17YVPfrLz4F_G-zqosfpH2Mo9ExCg/s4404/whitehouse%20wake%20up.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2273" data-original-width="4404" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggCtjENiVwOc9YrluqaBNsx3acR9D9NWfVgiBQrSJ9IpEZOnMtIGYDLzGWvGziaJVdsgXvuy4jfmzSPgDqBKTJGo3spu_zabPEvfNI9HpYo8B1LIyCoCoF3--2uwAHywPUTShKadolNz4up7qhN69URDa4Hcpqb17YVPfrLz4F_G-zqosfpH2Mo9ExCg/w640-h330/whitehouse%20wake%20up.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></b></p>Senator Whitehouse has pushed climate misinformation mostly offering conspiracy theories that argue skeptical science is fabricated & paid for by the dark money of fossil fuel companies. He compares skeptics to a “ventriloquist’s wooden painted dummy" and controlled by fossil fuel companies. In his numerous "Time to Wake Up" speeches, senator Whitehouse has fear mongered wildfires as evidence of a climate crisis, such as highlighting Colorado’s most destructive Marshall Fire.</span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Now as the chairman of the senate's committee on the budget, he pushes speculation on the extreme cost of climate change. This March 9th 2023 his committee focuses on wildfires. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">I was being considered to be one of the expert witnesses for that hearing but did not make the final cut. So, instead I’ll present what I had prepared for broader public consumption. I'm an ecologist and environmentalist, free of any fossil fuel manipulation, so I’m titling my contrasting presentation "Time to Learn Some Science".</span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixuQqp9aRAIQq_otDztxvZ_8fRnxC-S0YkwZ4jtBlVHAS9wBw87uHmtVcR8Wat69cGicekJkHH13cMmvil3Uv2ZNOTMYhCXtHzI-R3K7jpbq-p7tmn2JIww_MFqIyecI1_cOyXfZkR1iG8PFb5kSZSW5RpCVaMcrclhdW7LmYpJCqSknWh7bqDn7Ev9g/s4418/Jim%20Time%20for%20science.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2213" data-original-width="4418" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixuQqp9aRAIQq_otDztxvZ_8fRnxC-S0YkwZ4jtBlVHAS9wBw87uHmtVcR8Wat69cGicekJkHH13cMmvil3Uv2ZNOTMYhCXtHzI-R3K7jpbq-p7tmn2JIww_MFqIyecI1_cOyXfZkR1iG8PFb5kSZSW5RpCVaMcrclhdW7LmYpJCqSknWh7bqDn7Ev9g/w400-h200/Jim%20Time%20for%20science.png" width="400" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">There is no evidence supporting claims that rising CO2 and global warming increases the spread or intensity of wildfires. The intensity and spread of the destructive Marshall Fire was governed by the flammability of the grassland and the winter winds. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">In winter, the vegetation is dead or dormant, so moisture content reaches its seasonal low. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwE8X9Nta5c7ahEmh0Cztv_d6jXo4Sqx89mPyUsZNo83myiYx1cBUdyw6azHClcTvclak5sKxeECStDSsiNU-Udy5ec_M8NtAB4X3tbL2oefYYya0uIn3rkXiY2m2kOMVBZiph3CGpYcst2I8378l1Lk6v3B6sfUmBuOgRfXwzKUVUIgCZ_97OQvUh3A/s785/Marshall%20Fire%20Grass%20around%20town.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="785" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwE8X9Nta5c7ahEmh0Cztv_d6jXo4Sqx89mPyUsZNo83myiYx1cBUdyw6azHClcTvclak5sKxeECStDSsiNU-Udy5ec_M8NtAB4X3tbL2oefYYya0uIn3rkXiY2m2kOMVBZiph3CGpYcst2I8378l1Lk6v3B6sfUmBuOgRfXwzKUVUIgCZ_97OQvUh3A/w640-h358/Marshall%20Fire%20Grass%20around%20town.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The Marshall Fire was a grass fire. Grasses become highly flammable in just hours of dry weather. Grasses become highly flammable independent of climate change. The Marshall Fire was not evidence of a climate crisis! </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The Marshall Fire was ignited by humans. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Human ignitions have expanded fire season into the coldest seasons, making deadly fires less predictable. Natural lightning fires are more predictable in the summer months of the more limited lightning season. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrnmG6cWyFlwmevn8jjr7t8HD0R5LXD44Q89uaZCqZFpSGU7VLJoFJ93rOHINVlOKhBsrMrtlI_h9q_zsoWszFgTnwIkQCJEjdCBOdWGZ5rOGaK6dn8inuxsBcQW6Bp08bAy4PSxVYbRVECwFZ_CuSO33vR39iwoxBLuuaab9PaVd_K2m3s2TQeNIWVw/s1064/human%20ignition%20balch.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="797" data-original-width="1064" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrnmG6cWyFlwmevn8jjr7t8HD0R5LXD44Q89uaZCqZFpSGU7VLJoFJ93rOHINVlOKhBsrMrtlI_h9q_zsoWszFgTnwIkQCJEjdCBOdWGZ5rOGaK6dn8inuxsBcQW6Bp08bAy4PSxVYbRVECwFZ_CuSO33vR39iwoxBLuuaab9PaVd_K2m3s2TQeNIWVw/w640-h480/human%20ignition%20balch.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Like the Marshall Fire, humans caused California's most deadly fire, the Camp Fire, due to faulty electrical apparatus in October. Also in October, faulty electrical caused California's 4th most deadly fire, the Tubbs Fire. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Electrical sparks ignited California's 2nd largest fire, the Dixie Fire as well as its 9th largest, the Thomas Fire. A mere spark from a stake hitting a rock in a grassy pasture ignited a section of the 3rd largest fire, the Mendocino Complex Fire. An escaped campfire caused the 12 largest, the Rimm Fire And a highway accident caused the 14th largest, the Carr Fire. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">As grass fires are want to do, the Marshall Fire went from ignition to an out-of-control state in less than one hour</span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyAlT-PE3qOdQ1QxuX9bM59fpN1wECA0b7PYjh1Yp9e71lkY-8qVkGzQ9Z69JaEl1N3ztUiHIH0-x6jtpatIKJO6zQv4JnIY2rcxmEUDjEXO6C7QvAu8KSgbOtIXuLsSJ9PmLbe9TL0arR-WHDBIAM9OcdScffP4E2T0fl0yPFgi6MZjypLyDlk8i_1Q/s1144/grass%20fire.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="812" data-original-width="1144" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyAlT-PE3qOdQ1QxuX9bM59fpN1wECA0b7PYjh1Yp9e71lkY-8qVkGzQ9Z69JaEl1N3ztUiHIH0-x6jtpatIKJO6zQv4JnIY2rcxmEUDjEXO6C7QvAu8KSgbOtIXuLsSJ9PmLbe9TL0arR-WHDBIAM9OcdScffP4E2T0fl0yPFgi6MZjypLyDlk8i_1Q/w400-h284/grass%20fire.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Despite strong winds, temperatures were below freezing, and relative humidity was above average, conditions not considered to be worrisome fire weather. So, the National Weather Service did not issue a red flag warning that day. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">However, the drying Chinook Winds were strong enough that a no-burn restriction was rightfully issued. Strong winds will carry an escaped fire into human habitat with devastating speed. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">California's Santa Ana & Diablo winds have similarly spread California's worst fires.
All these winds peak in winter as cold air flows down the mountains. Any global warming should reduce these winds. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Fires require high amounts of energy to ignite and spread.</span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipji5lMelRXwr76ejmuER0gAmsvG4gc86sB9lN7N9Pf4ST9w2ee-ahHYjA83bQ3ZT5yqkUNdSRHIMnZOEZ1k7hspNXoiUU-L3eI6xueZNwl3Ubb-xgziovIxGsuvKc9jAK0up8nCVW84T7Klo4q8IZx3ShidwiJOHihhpwkENHpFyuUy2egqvUyupAVA/s618/GHG%20watts.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="518" data-original-width="618" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipji5lMelRXwr76ejmuER0gAmsvG4gc86sB9lN7N9Pf4ST9w2ee-ahHYjA83bQ3ZT5yqkUNdSRHIMnZOEZ1k7hspNXoiUU-L3eI6xueZNwl3Ubb-xgziovIxGsuvKc9jAK0up8nCVW84T7Klo4q8IZx3ShidwiJOHihhpwkENHpFyuUy2egqvUyupAVA/s320/GHG%20watts.jpg" width="320" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">It is well proven that increasing CO2 from burning fossil fuels adds about 2.4 W/ m2 of energy. But that cant ignite even a paper fire. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia;">In contrast, </span></b><b><span style="font-family: georgia;">3,400 W/m2 will ignite grassy vegetation in seconds.</span></b></span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia;">It is also well proven that grass fires emit about </span></b><b><span style="font-family: georgia;">35,000 W/m2 of energy.</span></b></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"> Depending on the vegetation density, that's 10 times more energy than what's needed to sustain a grass fire.</span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNQk3LU3YyJsDejF4yTOxdX5m75I9DIaEkE1BDV5VVNIiWSpg4RqKjSnrgHIHj6CJu-DD6IIHuF01rOv4rS4cVeDrXKqF79t76fXF5EGE37hiRnnqNXkCirFPHwYXXx5nEWvHQXl9Qv45NMOcBcmB3DCwdqol8ODOUPripv7ZL_JpqcrzqOjqFyuBrFA/s766/fire%20temperature.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="766" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNQk3LU3YyJsDejF4yTOxdX5m75I9DIaEkE1BDV5VVNIiWSpg4RqKjSnrgHIHj6CJu-DD6IIHuF01rOv4rS4cVeDrXKqF79t76fXF5EGE37hiRnnqNXkCirFPHwYXXx5nEWvHQXl9Qv45NMOcBcmB3DCwdqol8ODOUPripv7ZL_JpqcrzqOjqFyuBrFA/w640-h288/fire%20temperature.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Thus, the added energy from CO2 adds only 0.007% to the energy that a fire emits
So, the added energy from CO2 is insignificant regards the drying and spread of a fire. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Once a grass fire ignites a house, the house generates so much heat its ignites neighboring houses causing a fire siege that destroyed this whole community. Studies of burning furniture find a burning mattress alone releases nearly 4 million watts of heat. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf9C3zkb_LDAPlp6Y9l9IEEMPvVtdQX_IbQsC5KjeqdcXRZU9ANAbXj4hP-2JjLnZhXYX6R9HqZX-docnuzJo8HULYlt5zf6VaeSTt1reCwMIenOTK39iJA8o70JPriFLSO9UCd388J6kY_aJWJhxkfsBxpNVHmWh8ZwjGk_eMJxn-dvtcAYKc6PptLg/s1220/destroyed%20town.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1220" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhf9C3zkb_LDAPlp6Y9l9IEEMPvVtdQX_IbQsC5KjeqdcXRZU9ANAbXj4hP-2JjLnZhXYX6R9HqZX-docnuzJo8HULYlt5zf6VaeSTt1reCwMIenOTK39iJA8o70JPriFLSO9UCd388J6kY_aJWJhxkfsBxpNVHmWh8ZwjGk_eMJxn-dvtcAYKc6PptLg/w640-h402/destroyed%20town.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">In contrast to Whitehouse's call for a CO2 safety zone, a defensible space is created only by removing any vegetation that carries a fire too close to one's home. Only then can a reasonable wildfire safety zone be realized. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The introduction of Eurasian cheat grass over 100 years ago, has enabled increased fire ignitions and created more pathways carrying fire into shrubland, forests and rural towns. Cheat grass creates a dense carpet of highly flammable fuel that dies and dries by June and cheatgrass' spread is one correlate with the disproportional number of fires in the west. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikB586-8wlAbdURgxdqTgzSMH61zo_--RRkXfP6nFpgJSazEuLReYwPYtn61Rfdy5IlT9HV5gCJke3DOgdua75-Xg6wKQZs_RVDpvUCXRWbjCqmhuQonW3PcXt-SE1I5PPLBfGoO1Eg51WcntbElNBi4_IwrXzuPt5WbKU8Hke8ALAfIPNFJdgVs5_bA/s1892/cheatgrass%20fire%20correlate.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="1892" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikB586-8wlAbdURgxdqTgzSMH61zo_--RRkXfP6nFpgJSazEuLReYwPYtn61Rfdy5IlT9HV5gCJke3DOgdua75-Xg6wKQZs_RVDpvUCXRWbjCqmhuQonW3PcXt-SE1I5PPLBfGoO1Eg51WcntbElNBi4_IwrXzuPt5WbKU8Hke8ALAfIPNFJdgVs5_bA/w640-h240/cheatgrass%20fire%20correlate.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">If the senator wants to minimize deadly fires, the budget committee should consider more support for restoring native vegetation. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The deep rooted, native perennial grasses that cheatgrass replaced, produce moist live foliage through august and create a mosaic of grassy clumps and bare ground that slows the spread of fires.</span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Similarly, in forest habitat, money would be best spent increasing prescribed burns and forest thinning to create a mosaic that again reduces wildfire spread. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Fires were far more common in the early 1900s when CO2 was lower and temperatures were cooler as demonstrated by the Oregon Department of Forestry. Likewise, fires were far more common throughout the American southwest during the Little Ice Age. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7kupwwe6Hz6Xs2g-m9pmufoM-nxYto8PDekQRVJu8oRB8U4dovlqHTJvB8i2HwgFR3f1SqLBoqlPIQue8c5f3flV7uRZGe45gcz3OQKHMpWizYgB8XL6QcLmwACUClTX3sSspUnZWSIiSY9kDxf31MXEuCeRckrQSY0AXt1tvfMiFWjtCqdlmInp4DA/s3740/oregon%20and%20SOuthwest%20fire%20history.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1989" data-original-width="3740" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7kupwwe6Hz6Xs2g-m9pmufoM-nxYto8PDekQRVJu8oRB8U4dovlqHTJvB8i2HwgFR3f1SqLBoqlPIQue8c5f3flV7uRZGe45gcz3OQKHMpWizYgB8XL6QcLmwACUClTX3sSspUnZWSIiSY9kDxf31MXEuCeRckrQSY0AXt1tvfMiFWjtCqdlmInp4DA/w640-h340/oregon%20and%20SOuthwest%20fire%20history.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Fire suppression policies that began 100 years ago and were meant to save forests, instead caused forest fuels to accumulate, unintentionally resulting now in more intense and devastating fires</span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Lightning is the cause of natural fires. Despite a lightning strike raising air temperatures by 50,000 F, a strike usually doesn’t ignite living trees due to the trees' high moisture content and the lightning's short duration. Lightning is also less likely to start a fire when accompanying rainstorms. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSzXN4q2s_jWCLDg8g6Qqkz1B0uq9dsUZ0UZTIGMG0lU-y2-o7srg6o9Jo5reJ09GVPqTmTYxBHVQbw04XR0ikjIu_pcHvrwhC0nXk8jKe1UXc52vHr_Dj2XOOviKrAqWbzRygyi9PalMq97_hDaSZ895bY7QYT6zGOlOeDlCwErpKBwHPi7wWu1th0w/s2823/lightning%20stats.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2319" data-original-width="2823" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSzXN4q2s_jWCLDg8g6Qqkz1B0uq9dsUZ0UZTIGMG0lU-y2-o7srg6o9Jo5reJ09GVPqTmTYxBHVQbw04XR0ikjIu_pcHvrwhC0nXk8jKe1UXc52vHr_Dj2XOOviKrAqWbzRygyi9PalMq97_hDaSZ895bY7QYT6zGOlOeDlCwErpKBwHPi7wWu1th0w/w640-h526/lightning%20stats.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Interestingly, California accounts for 31% of all of America's burnt area from lightning, despite having one of the lowest densities of lightning strikes. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">However dry lightning is more common in the arid western USA and is another correlate explaining the disproportionate number of fires in the western USA. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Accordingly, California's largest fires were due to a summer swarm of dry lightning strikes in 2020. Dry lightning caused California's all time biggest recorded fire, the August Complex Fire, in addition to causing the 4th and 6th largest fires. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">In contrast, Florida is hit by 50 times more lightning strikes per square mile. Yet, although California is just 3 times larger, California's burnt area is 20 times larger than Florida's, despite both states being equally affected by rising CO2. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">This difference correlates with the fact that California has the least amount of summer precipitation during lightning season while Florida has the most. Thus, it's California's Mediterranean climate that makes it naturally prone to dry lightning, drier fuels, and larger wildfires. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFQXG41-fxaC0C1IcxI6A6nMcV0eMNXsIsj-hXuQJLkNRTPJ_dEzn8X4sakgTjFXrBGHInEMW5JVKWVEg-KcRUoUiDUGW710yQZQ1d-X0iKPeA9lJQIl9ZDyfQiuN45pZjljULJePZVi4pHQ7SE3-Gb5MID8IWDqHblBiK5vgNLYVksLssxxKrfMq10A/s4335/ocean%20circulation%20summer%20moisture.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1691" data-original-width="4335" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFQXG41-fxaC0C1IcxI6A6nMcV0eMNXsIsj-hXuQJLkNRTPJ_dEzn8X4sakgTjFXrBGHInEMW5JVKWVEg-KcRUoUiDUGW710yQZQ1d-X0iKPeA9lJQIl9ZDyfQiuN45pZjljULJePZVi4pHQ7SE3-Gb5MID8IWDqHblBiK5vgNLYVksLssxxKrfMq10A/w640-h250/ocean%20circulation%20summer%20moisture.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">A Mediterranean climate's dry summers happen each summer because a clockwise-spinning high pressure system sets up and diverts moisture-carrying storms northward & away from California inhibiting its summer rainfall. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Although a similar high pressure sets up in the Atlantic, the same clockwise spin drives more rain into the Gulf and east coasts, explaining why the eastern USA has far fewer fires. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The Pacific high-pressure system fades in winter allowing California to receive more rainstorms, but La Nina-like oceans can maintain higher pressures during the winter, resulting in more drought, particularly in California. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi15bxST4xHVGQ8zxvWU2FtpsvfujUBWO0CSBVzttLV8yc1Pfkbizfd9brot-_eOJBEl045RlOMEwihwDxDz7uGcFktaIik-IAuKlF_3Z6nLIgpf73bxIwxiDd7HFqBz-YHNfJQtZqfRzsAasLqmfSPvAOSZ0ZyKIFWUgeLjGZ9zW-nq_rGX74umEa74A/s1216/LA%20Nina%20dry%20effect.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="1216" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi15bxST4xHVGQ8zxvWU2FtpsvfujUBWO0CSBVzttLV8yc1Pfkbizfd9brot-_eOJBEl045RlOMEwihwDxDz7uGcFktaIik-IAuKlF_3Z6nLIgpf73bxIwxiDd7HFqBz-YHNfJQtZqfRzsAasLqmfSPvAOSZ0ZyKIFWUgeLjGZ9zW-nq_rGX74umEa74A/w640-h362/LA%20Nina%20dry%20effect.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">La Nina's are natural. So, CO2 driven models have failed to accurately simulate their occurrence. Scientists are struggling to understand why their models predicted more El Nino-like oceans as CO2 increased, in contrast to the past 40 years of observations finding the pacific has become more La Nina like. </span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Finally, climate alarmists and mis-informers have been cherry-picking & weaponizing the tragedies of the Marshall Fire & California's fires, as evidence of global warming catastrophes.
However, the global burnt area declined by 25% between 2000 and 2017, again contrary to global warming predictions. </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgn7Sa_T8N6AVPSNK8qlRJUNaZcRmvsBaBnVLJ66RimiP-zHVqsVUUqJ_4tLoC7VY4zRaHXeWk7G1C3Y2WU2GkPOOoNFU73Gtq8NWYjcn4M5e24jx9FF01Qtl0UDNt4-aOXvNI27RObrgiTpQX80HTaNteA44v96N2i2c36mXdsH7KV1N1ilNjZ-MjAg/s4166/25%25%20burned%20decline.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1315" data-original-width="4166" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgn7Sa_T8N6AVPSNK8qlRJUNaZcRmvsBaBnVLJ66RimiP-zHVqsVUUqJ_4tLoC7VY4zRaHXeWk7G1C3Y2WU2GkPOOoNFU73Gtq8NWYjcn4M5e24jx9FF01Qtl0UDNt4-aOXvNI27RObrgiTpQX80HTaNteA44v96N2i2c36mXdsH7KV1N1ilNjZ-MjAg/w640-h202/25%25%20burned%20decline.png" width="640" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The red areas show where burnt areas have significantly increased, blue significant decreases. All the white areas represent NO trend and reveal neither the USA nor the world show any indication of a growing wildfire crisis or any correlation with rising CO2.</span></b></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">So, indeed wake up America, it is time to learn some science! </span></b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYuXTPRu9W7oq5DUrckXf1Hxvp0ldW514Qt1sO4sNmjIzE-32jO-7P3GIqV5sThyNiP5I5RvHDJ-9ok5vCHyR4TYINWAYqEdVu0hddBOVCNIJ8kQXbYqWOImsDNd7InvUYn7kkqRohCmUfOors5VVJyF0Gq9LVerfeMyeOGkqTBKZhhltzGju0KNLC4Q/s790/time%20to%20learn%20some%20science.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="790" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYuXTPRu9W7oq5DUrckXf1Hxvp0ldW514Qt1sO4sNmjIzE-32jO-7P3GIqV5sThyNiP5I5RvHDJ-9ok5vCHyR4TYINWAYqEdVu0hddBOVCNIJ8kQXbYqWOImsDNd7InvUYn7kkqRohCmUfOors5VVJyF0Gq9LVerfeMyeOGkqTBKZhhltzGju0KNLC4Q/w265-h256/time%20to%20learn%20some%20science.png" width="265" /></span></a></b></div><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b><p></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Thank you</span></b></p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-29451571399902725252023-02-06T22:59:00.100-08:002023-09-09T14:08:51.083-07:00WHY COOKING WITH GAS WONT MELT ARCTIC SEA ICE or How Temperature Anomaly Graphs Obscure Important Climate Dynamics<p><br /></p><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>This is the transcript for video </b></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>WHY COOKING WITH GAS WONT MELT ARCTIC SEA ICE or How Temperature Anomaly Graphs Obscure Important Climate Dynamics</b></span></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><a class="style-scope ytcp-video-info" href="https://youtu.be/LxSi21sar7Y" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>https://youtu.be/LxSi21sar7Y</b></span></a></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0d0d0d; font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">Video reveals the critical climate dynamics of </span><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0d0d0d; font-size: large; white-space: pre-wrap;">ocean currents that naturally transport warm warm water from the tropics into the Arctic causing very different local temperatures and changes in sea ice extent. </span></b></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #0d0d0d; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: 15px;">
<br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuh7dqUlAPuaedmW3ELKchUinnz2KtEIiRPOzE1i0H7K1s2VPm81NYKDkjUzcjc07JgXmBq397QNfQo8snP7v7UrZdb_F1SebLgteWCO5_Ztn835CcT_TpJDwoPAp_9H6rEoAjcOcP2Q0DADTS5D9InxMNngTjfqnB1VgpMdgD3MGpFT_9AGgNdqHJBA/s2754/2016%20WINTER%20ANOMALIES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1732" data-original-width="2754" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuh7dqUlAPuaedmW3ELKchUinnz2KtEIiRPOzE1i0H7K1s2VPm81NYKDkjUzcjc07JgXmBq397QNfQo8snP7v7UrZdb_F1SebLgteWCO5_Ztn835CcT_TpJDwoPAp_9H6rEoAjcOcP2Q0DADTS5D9InxMNngTjfqnB1VgpMdgD3MGpFT_9AGgNdqHJBA/w640-h402/2016%20WINTER%20ANOMALIES.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></span></div><div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Welcome back everyone. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Today I want to demonstrate how the focus on temperature anomalies severely misleads the public about the natural dynamics of climate change</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Indeed, as illustrated here by NASA’s 2016 winter temperature anomalies, the data shows the rctic is warming 4 times faster than elsewhere and winters are warming faster than the other seasons. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>However, a dubious narrative uncritically attributes rising CO2 to those anomalies, then speculates about a future warming crisis while ignoring important natural dynamics such as ocean currents. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>But there is a wealth of scientific research that has shown ocean currents can also cause those higher temperature anomalies, but that isn’t obvious from this anomaly illustration.
To add to the misunderstanding, the high Arctic temperatures are paradoxically due to heat ventilating out from the ocean and cooling the earth, thus actually preventing future extreme warming. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The warm 2016 winter temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific were caused by a natural El Nino event that also ventilated heat previously stored in the western Pacific, briefly warming the air but again actually cooling the earth. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>El Nino events also contribute to warmer sea surface temperatures simply by reducing the trade winds that drive upwelling of cold subsurface water.
Such warming when upwelling is inhibited is observed globally.
For example, a 3-month study showed how monthly changes in wind direction (the blue line) caused a 6 to 8C (14F surface temperature change. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMexTIKLzlm20mAOxddJ1AeAE8eVDkNzeccpT_nfDolsSZ3GlGCQ0hgTNz9AYzQgp4DKgHdIoXa5QyiQqjYa_9PE2WJqNVFFUx-qNhGmvBSEIt52Kw9NO5GoKqUzYowK3ym07vvqiNk2ExeRtRwktEXg23UGlgezWnXPDcEHYXTck__A6EBJLyCtlZLA/s4175/WIND%20UPWELLNG.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1714" data-original-width="4175" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMexTIKLzlm20mAOxddJ1AeAE8eVDkNzeccpT_nfDolsSZ3GlGCQ0hgTNz9AYzQgp4DKgHdIoXa5QyiQqjYa_9PE2WJqNVFFUx-qNhGmvBSEIt52Kw9NO5GoKqUzYowK3ym07vvqiNk2ExeRtRwktEXg23UGlgezWnXPDcEHYXTck__A6EBJLyCtlZLA/w640-h262/WIND%20UPWELLNG.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Along the coast of Oregon, when winds blow in a southward direction, upwelling is enhanced, and surface temperatures fall (the red line). </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Conversely, when winds blow to the north upwelling of cooler deeper water is inhibited causing temperatures to rise by 6-8C (14F). </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Such dramatic natural temperature changes have nothing to do with radiative heating from the sun or greenhouse gases. Nonetheless warmer temperatures from reduced upwelling are often mistakenly incorporated into the global average temperature as seen during El Nino events and then attributed to CO2 warming. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>It is far more insightful to understand climate change by looking at actual temperature changes. Using publicly available national weather service data, a quick survey of subarctic </b></span><b style="font-family: georgia;">temperatures on January 29th, 2023, at 60 degrees latitude just south of the Arctic Circle, reveals how ocean currents alone cause tremendous temperature differences.</b></span></p><p><b style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWzpdxwn4VyuHlmKubfjgA1gErt1pbidsb7SYK3yUSlNAwDc6VZKjAFOxlti6FM_GVfdoGMvd5s1Q8GG1Bq9TFZ6zccxzxSmKgsxD51KxaqAYBKQ8jY5y2lUUn3pmMn-m1eBYVT6-3XdoyQ4QC_XOEl3riDj2sVQh44c1ml4ZYMv8RY9pye3iXHxEacw/s3795/60%20N%20TEMPERATURES%202023png.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1837" data-original-width="3795" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWzpdxwn4VyuHlmKubfjgA1gErt1pbidsb7SYK3yUSlNAwDc6VZKjAFOxlti6FM_GVfdoGMvd5s1Q8GG1Bq9TFZ6zccxzxSmKgsxD51KxaqAYBKQ8jY5y2lUUn3pmMn-m1eBYVT6-3XdoyQ4QC_XOEl3riDj2sVQh44c1ml4ZYMv8RY9pye3iXHxEacw/w640-h310/60%20N%20TEMPERATURES%202023png.png" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><b style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The Hudson Bay was -33C or minus 28F. Clearly any warming effects from greenhouse gases did not prevent such life threatening extreme cold. Such deadly cold temperatures evoke a much different concern for Hudson Bay inhabitants than NASA’s 2-degree warmer temperature anomaly, that laughingly is suggested as evidence of a global warming crisis. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Temperatures in the middle of the Labrador Sea jump 34 C or 60 F to a very livable temperature just below the freezing point. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Further east, higher Irminger Sea temperatures rise above freezing to 2.2 C or 36F. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>And the Norwegian current is even warmer at 42F. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Benefitting from eastward winds that transfer ventilating heat from the warm Norwegian Current, the Norwegian coast reaches a balmy 7C or 44F in the dead of winter.
Even though all measurements were taken at the same latitude, on the same date and same time, there is a huge 40C or 73F temperature difference between the Hudson Bay and Norwegian coast</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Indisputably, that variability is caused by heat transported northward by ocean currents and ventilated to the Arctic atmosphere. It is the ocean currents that are the Arctic's climate control knob, not atmospheric greenhouse warming, as witnessed by the extremely cold Hudson Bay. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxASuII8qUj3i7e7zgKaiwXrZ24F07BbQeIU6QcJ328XB_66f267d_JAc31utDfoZVa0YedP_FEJoSgJ3sN8mj9PQ6sX84eUXjjEZ0S3ds9xb4IQ50DKhr6pqn3u7O2KhG7vSKALkBM0RgzFwjNsO_vLueTUuToLiAZHd-RXFYTdAbYtoR3r7bnzINMg/s400/SUBARCTIC%20CURRENTS.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="400" height="542" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxASuII8qUj3i7e7zgKaiwXrZ24F07BbQeIU6QcJ328XB_66f267d_JAc31utDfoZVa0YedP_FEJoSgJ3sN8mj9PQ6sX84eUXjjEZ0S3ds9xb4IQ50DKhr6pqn3u7O2KhG7vSKALkBM0RgzFwjNsO_vLueTUuToLiAZHd-RXFYTdAbYtoR3r7bnzINMg/w640-h542/SUBARCTIC%20CURRENTS.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Indeed, a map of the warm and cold currents entering those subarctic seas, predicts precisely where temperatures would be warmest</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The Norwegian current carries the warmest waters that originated in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>A portion of the warm north Atlantic current that veered westward while ventilating some heat plus mixing with the cold east Greenland current keeps the Irminger Sea just above freezing but cooler than the Norwegian sea</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Further ventilation of Atlantic heat and mixing with colder water lowers the observed Labrador Sea temperatures to just below freezing</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNDyl940H0wHT3Q8rUnmG6nsq5qoeGBn4_W1uHQHzPIJ2FKyvQ5kMOMYAAW3ZaSVwPuicZiA3gYwk4MMp__MljkhgZmdAEO8IWxjBBtsQnVlR0qwBDTPBNHKRmFNfOE0QbYcgvZilRr2q-kW0zgfJbQg5IzJEspSbZ5BzFY94sDi0uFkzFbFYnPPJOHw/s918/NSIDC%20WINTER%20SEA%20ICE%20TREND.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="918" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNDyl940H0wHT3Q8rUnmG6nsq5qoeGBn4_W1uHQHzPIJ2FKyvQ5kMOMYAAW3ZaSVwPuicZiA3gYwk4MMp__MljkhgZmdAEO8IWxjBBtsQnVlR0qwBDTPBNHKRmFNfOE0QbYcgvZilRr2q-kW0zgfJbQg5IzJEspSbZ5BzFY94sDi0uFkzFbFYnPPJOHw/w640-h418/NSIDC%20WINTER%20SEA%20ICE%20TREND.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>NASA and a few other climate researchers have uncritically attributed declining winter sea ice to rising CO2 simply based on a negative correlation.
Furthermore, by presenting the ice decline trend as a representation of all the Arctic and not a regional phenomenon, the National Snow and Ice Data Center's sea ice trend is a very misleading abstraction. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Their global warming correlation does not hold for 80% of Arctic winter sea ice extent. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Inside the Arctic Circle most of the winter sea ice extent has not been reduced, suggesting warmer air, purported to be derived from rising greenhouse gases, has yet to cause any change. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtZ5K4A67aV36ZdjG01h5XXNFH0VifGen3SITlaFsg5tDkQ_CHx3yMPpOiGjGVc75XPnA-ykeXbuS68Df0wEq4Dj5lEiTFfqaNKL1GN9cbPviXz-2P0RXGw_YURYXa_Gh2vU_8zpiEy-LDrnRD19og8i6mqCMcZ4PipdSfC7jCBJ3hU17HoDbUWUvaow/s2090/ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20LOSS%20IN%20BARENTS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1379" data-original-width="2090" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtZ5K4A67aV36ZdjG01h5XXNFH0VifGen3SITlaFsg5tDkQ_CHx3yMPpOiGjGVc75XPnA-ykeXbuS68Df0wEq4Dj5lEiTFfqaNKL1GN9cbPviXz-2P0RXGw_YURYXa_Gh2vU_8zpiEy-LDrnRD19og8i6mqCMcZ4PipdSfC7jCBJ3hU17HoDbUWUvaow/w640-h422/ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20LOSS%20IN%20BARENTS.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Furthermore, south of the Arctic Circle there is scant reduction for Bering Sea ice, </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Nor is there any change in Hudson Bay winter ice extent. Of course, this is expected with winter temperatures hovering around -33C (-28F)</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>NSIDC graph of winter sea ice is driven by losses confined only to regions where warm Atlantic water intrudes, around the Norwegian sea, and more deeply into the Arctic Circle and the Barents Sea. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>According to NSIDC, heat transported into the Arctic ocean has increased by 30% since 1900, making the variability of warm ocean currents the best explanation for the 20th century's ebb and flow of Arctic sea ice. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The cause of variable heat transport into the Arctic requires examining a complex of natural factors driving the great Ocean Conveyor Belt and its Atlantic segment, known as the meridional overturning circulation</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0PrqeZNUiDCUP8cSvCQpp9CKSU9PZEqswURnVX5z1wW3MPzFbAVBFvpT6rcfvIiSoM7Gr0SQOLqGjBQr2OsYVfQZffJP-x8qLPnEvv4upAUGrQ90UdsfvhnVKYrMPeAdaylPAyiuMT934Kg1wIkO4uTDgg3Ty5I9-ycqzXylz2D-JBhkr7Kug4hnJPw/s726/ATLANTIC%20CONVEYOR%20BELT.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="726" height="634" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0PrqeZNUiDCUP8cSvCQpp9CKSU9PZEqswURnVX5z1wW3MPzFbAVBFvpT6rcfvIiSoM7Gr0SQOLqGjBQr2OsYVfQZffJP-x8qLPnEvv4upAUGrQ90UdsfvhnVKYrMPeAdaylPAyiuMT934Kg1wIkO4uTDgg3Ty5I9-ycqzXylz2D-JBhkr7Kug4hnJPw/w640-h634/ATLANTIC%20CONVEYOR%20BELT.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The Atlantic is unique, in that warm water from the southern hemisphere crosses the equator and eventually reaches the Arctic. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Furthermore, the heating of water in the south Atlantic is partly controlled by the ocean Conveyor Belt's inflows from the tropical waters of the Pacific and Indian ocean. I won't discuss the circulation complexities of this segment any further here, except to share that La Nina conditions have a large impact. For those who want to understand the drivers of heating in those tropical waters, I suggest people view my previous video/blog on ocean heating "<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl3_YQ_Vufo&t=1125s" target="_blank">The Science of Solar Ponds Challenges the Climate Crisis"</a>.</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Focusing on the Atlantic, research has determined 45% of the water passing through the Florida Strait and into the gulf stream originated from the south Atlantic. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Changes in the strength and location of Atlantic pressure systems and resulting ocean circulation determines how much heat enters the Arctic Circle or is recirculated southwards. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Unfortunately, most illustrations of the Ocean Conveyor Belt typically stop half-way up the Norwegian coast, but that is very misleading. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ8J-RCPQxSf-q6PTvLN01Bn5qWeoUxfo9ty9eXhSSFWpfclvpZnG2QUZc4Hw1S3YY5d2EXQRh6lDa8dy20U9bAjZgVXLdWyC3oGAwN9GQmXMvpjE0Hrpi4f-SJDx3UPAaRRlvbXI8WHzQ7Y_HXldm_r88BiloyXN7qhBhVYytsGoNi-GzatRDIlWvKQ/s990/INTRUDING%20ARCTIC%20CURRENTS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="990" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ8J-RCPQxSf-q6PTvLN01Bn5qWeoUxfo9ty9eXhSSFWpfclvpZnG2QUZc4Hw1S3YY5d2EXQRh6lDa8dy20U9bAjZgVXLdWyC3oGAwN9GQmXMvpjE0Hrpi4f-SJDx3UPAaRRlvbXI8WHzQ7Y_HXldm_r88BiloyXN7qhBhVYytsGoNi-GzatRDIlWvKQ/w640-h466/INTRUDING%20ARCTIC%20CURRENTS.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Warm Atlantic water circulates throughout the Arctic ocean and correctly predicts where Arctic temperatures will be the warmest. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The warmest temperatures are where Atlantic water first enters the Norwegian and Barents Sea, with ventilating ocean heat warming the air. Then slightly cooler Atlantic water continues to circulate through the 3 major Arctic basins beneath the thick sea ice. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>A smaller volume of less warm water from the Pacific enters via the Bering strait</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Whereas hardly any heat from intruding warm currents reaches the islands of the Canadian archipelago explaining the region's extreme cold. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8m1HV9rJRWPZKiQMCHYe53SC6u1T0KRYiwcYFKbfjhwx5U41r35KGNRBmy8fx9EsLK6at3bTDtoRIc8IkzdHzs0SfiNXZbmRVmMp7FeBDNvOrpfiB5D8eUG9XudOhmtBgvurz_i42HuKdQALEbkHXSUlmZt-2kkZbnQRC7AH4qcUoVfamZuuUV1axSw/s1232/ATLANTIC%20WATER%20RESIDENCE%20TIME.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1232" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8m1HV9rJRWPZKiQMCHYe53SC6u1T0KRYiwcYFKbfjhwx5U41r35KGNRBmy8fx9EsLK6at3bTDtoRIc8IkzdHzs0SfiNXZbmRVmMp7FeBDNvOrpfiB5D8eUG9XudOhmtBgvurz_i42HuKdQALEbkHXSUlmZt-2kkZbnQRC7AH4qcUoVfamZuuUV1axSw/w640-h398/ATLANTIC%20WATER%20RESIDENCE%20TIME.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>Additionally, because the warm Atlantic water resides </b></span><b style="font-family: georgia;">between 100- and 900-meter depths of the Arctic Ocean with a residence time of 25 to 30 years, any cyclical slowdown of the Gulf Stream may not be detected in Arctic Ocean temperatures or its sea ice extent for 2 to 3 decades</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Again, we can observe how the pattern of intruding warm currents drives Arctic ocean temperature differences just inside the Arctic Circle at 70 degrees latitude. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgidePtZJkd70ZzBvLbSgy4dFGI3GF2-tOu8mXgpsEzdRMcIPNyX5H3Doec7cWa3x5QV4OCE0Mq0j2S7qRhgGE2ZggOSdiR2cfQgmdlGEkV7JsW6F9CszwItwK42PGCpvsnQlOKzdluI7LWwpDNMLqxsb_PQ52GMvAP0rwnE2-unV_0WqFkEGUoFBSSjA/s3772/RCTIC%2070%20N%20TEMPERATURES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1815" data-original-width="3772" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgidePtZJkd70ZzBvLbSgy4dFGI3GF2-tOu8mXgpsEzdRMcIPNyX5H3Doec7cWa3x5QV4OCE0Mq0j2S7qRhgGE2ZggOSdiR2cfQgmdlGEkV7JsW6F9CszwItwK42PGCpvsnQlOKzdluI7LWwpDNMLqxsb_PQ52GMvAP0rwnE2-unV_0WqFkEGUoFBSSjA/w640-h308/RCTIC%2070%20N%20TEMPERATURES.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Around Wrangel island where cool Pacific water enters via the Bering strait the temperature was -16.7 C or 1.9F. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>However, where very little warm currents reach the islands of the Canadian archipelago, temperatures plummeted to -39C or -39F</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>For contrast, North Pole temperatures are 8C or 15F warmer than the archipelago due to Atlantic heat stored in the Arctic basins and ventilating through the ice.
Partly due to such heating contrasts, Inuits hunting in the winter preferred to build their igloos on the ice instead of on land. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>Temperatures over the southward out-flowing east Greenland current are -19C or -3 F in contrast to t</b></span><b style="font-family: georgia;">he temperatures of the adjacent inflowing Norwegian current that is 21C or 38F warmer.</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Natural dynamics affect the flow of heat in the Atlantic segment of the Ocean Conveyor Belt.
One dynamic is the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (or ITCZ) which caused a dramatic temperature effect at the end of the last ice age. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOPBJ8lDWTzHQu2TkVNjhz7g5s6UULAeFNBrn4qFwOmGB-bcEC4otpQ5b66KeW0wP5ifiIlFhILW2K41I1rFtLK-JGso3gvWTiVYmJHu90LnfOr6_nEYRnEbkiYCQy9uW7rcwgvTUZOG0RNmHZEQzkTOldJTMEnpqSwKouyVHdcp2gPr_b5IWJUi2kMQ/s1587/YOUNGER%20DRYAS%20TEMPERATURE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1587" data-original-width="1279" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOPBJ8lDWTzHQu2TkVNjhz7g5s6UULAeFNBrn4qFwOmGB-bcEC4otpQ5b66KeW0wP5ifiIlFhILW2K41I1rFtLK-JGso3gvWTiVYmJHu90LnfOr6_nEYRnEbkiYCQy9uW7rcwgvTUZOG0RNmHZEQzkTOldJTMEnpqSwKouyVHdcp2gPr_b5IWJUi2kMQ/w516-h640/YOUNGER%20DRYAS%20TEMPERATURE.jpg" width="516" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Ice core data show temperatures that had been rapidly warming suddenly dropped by 20C or 36F in the northern hemisphere for about a thousand years during a cold period called the Younger Dryas (YD). In contrast, southern hemisphere temperatures slightly warmed. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Proxy data suggests the westward trade winds and ITCZ had shifted southward causing the warm South Equatorial Current (SEC) to also shift southward. Brazil's eastern most land, Ponta do Seixas amplified that shift by deflecting more warm water back into the south Atlantic and thus cooling the north Atlantic. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieyDXSjQdOPKRlZEHxAD6H7EIJpkdk9eP7bsi01bsgZVwPZYx4Tw6f7Ht9au0LSbXaN7u8Xeg9xoa4qF1BOLdGtuGZSlpWaaaymTUl7uPEnOiU3p4OsRepJD7vty74EBt4IovkbTUZCEc-Pnr0YRmrnxMT-Zcg8_HQTvZGwmOvLfQWQnn7HxWpbPq2iw/s2814/ITCZ%20SOUTH%20EQUATORIAL%20CURRENT.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1746" data-original-width="2814" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieyDXSjQdOPKRlZEHxAD6H7EIJpkdk9eP7bsi01bsgZVwPZYx4Tw6f7Ht9au0LSbXaN7u8Xeg9xoa4qF1BOLdGtuGZSlpWaaaymTUl7uPEnOiU3p4OsRepJD7vty74EBt4IovkbTUZCEc-Pnr0YRmrnxMT-Zcg8_HQTvZGwmOvLfQWQnn7HxWpbPq2iw/w640-h398/ITCZ%20SOUTH%20EQUATORIAL%20CURRENT.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The warmer 10,000 years of the Holocene period correlates with the ITCZ shifting northward, causing the warm South Equatorial Current to deliver more warm water across the equator, to warm the north Atlantic while cooling the south.</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>A similar but smaller southward shift of the ITCZ corresponds with the Little Ice Age which mostly cooled the northern Atlantic regions.
The Little Ice Age ended around 1850 as the ITCZ moved northward for our most recent 150 years. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVGKyAEMSiyzZZ9aZq7Hn4o9Y4DwZJ75dIQJEREBqBzEarqB9efJgvB418K29yAJhObVAqNIdoisn6smjEJi1FYSV3lpBNdo_MDbJgwnsQnFEdnCa278tcQ-6rgohgWsRNKgPptwaoGih4b7WrjlpJL5JTzKbkx6AOjKDC0UrRYIR9hdXD6JF6GoucQQ/s910/AMV%20AMO%20WARM%20NORTH%20ATLANTIC.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="622" data-original-width="910" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVGKyAEMSiyzZZ9aZq7Hn4o9Y4DwZJ75dIQJEREBqBzEarqB9efJgvB418K29yAJhObVAqNIdoisn6smjEJi1FYSV3lpBNdo_MDbJgwnsQnFEdnCa278tcQ-6rgohgWsRNKgPptwaoGih4b7WrjlpJL5JTzKbkx6AOjKDC0UrRYIR9hdXD6JF6GoucQQ/w640-h438/AMV%20AMO%20WARM%20NORTH%20ATLANTIC.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>Like the drivers that caused and ended the Younger Dryas, the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability or </b></span><b style="font-family: georgia;">Multidecadal </b><b style="font-family: georgia;">Oscillation, represents 20+ years of warmer temperatures in the north Atlantic than the south and then reversing. This oscillation is intimately linked to variability of the surface currents in the Atlantic’s surface Meridional Overturning circulation within the Ocean Conveyor Belt.</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>First detected in the 1980s and officially named around 2000, the positive phase represents a warmer north Atlantic that is linked to several climate dynamics. From the 1930s to 60s and then 1990s to present, the positive warm phases were associated with less Arctic sea ice, increased Sahel rainfall, increased hurricane activity, and frequent heat extremes in the southwestern USA. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnzbeWQTWO5G8Z4nTsqLTWlh178GP-0HC-KKixQULJgamoqC2ipmjlR5F9AlvMYzTDXRkKn-rKYHutQ8BB467chSZu3d5DKslf2cN2wWnTIqOIKynR0cfYhR3rOLpw2jUEc30ePBKKvaDIddQMA9KrJCHID0gUimGUUOjrlwBbZ8g3OF8mXds31zMrHQ/s910/AMO%20PHASES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="910" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnzbeWQTWO5G8Z4nTsqLTWlh178GP-0HC-KKixQULJgamoqC2ipmjlR5F9AlvMYzTDXRkKn-rKYHutQ8BB467chSZu3d5DKslf2cN2wWnTIqOIKynR0cfYhR3rOLpw2jUEc30ePBKKvaDIddQMA9KrJCHID0gUimGUUOjrlwBbZ8g3OF8mXds31zMrHQ/w640-h246/AMO%20PHASES.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The negative phase from the 1960s to 1990 (represented in blue), saw a reversal of those dynamics as Arctic sea ice rebounded from its 1930s low extent.
Accordingly, a 40-year research project over the Arctic ocean during a cool phase and published in 1993 determined there was an "absence of evidence for greenhouse warming" over the Arctic ocean. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>So, for your sake, please understand these natural oscillations.
Knowledge protects you from fear mongering politicians who blame loss of Arctic sea ice on the car you drive or that you like cooking with a gas stove. </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGO2-EtF1MRF6OadGYvdyIC3b-FwqprEGYkJii9Wl8u195HghsUEd-coOKc0yyTmrmsIG5b4L7kZEJZVsa9MHzk3NOoUxKmA4O8ZwVjml5tQ0kXOmzyg9CPKmfV8glaurRZaFukOsdlU2aT5u1h4RWHefN3Qq06IGQH_ajrcO-G61geDCrOoQ4RBmH3A/s2039/PANIC%20%20&%20SPOT%20MISINFO.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1938" data-original-width="2039" height="608" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGO2-EtF1MRF6OadGYvdyIC3b-FwqprEGYkJii9Wl8u195HghsUEd-coOKc0yyTmrmsIG5b4L7kZEJZVsa9MHzk3NOoUxKmA4O8ZwVjml5tQ0kXOmzyg9CPKmfV8glaurRZaFukOsdlU2aT5u1h4RWHefN3Qq06IGQH_ajrcO-G61geDCrOoQ4RBmH3A/w640-h608/PANIC%20%20&%20SPOT%20MISINFO.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /><b><br /></b></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>There 3 guidelines to consider preventing being victimized by their climate misinformation. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>First consider all the science, an abundance of researchers reports warming dynamics other than CO2. Science is a process, and nothing is settled yet. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Second become well acquainted with natural climate change. Natural climate change serves as the baseline, or the control data, from which to accurately judge the effects of CO2 emissions. The purpose of my series of climate videos and blogs is to provide a better understanding of the science of natural climate change to the public. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>And finally, embrace renowned scientist Thomas Huxley’s advice: "skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin".</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Thanks for watching! </b></span></p>
</div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-47909990992049400162023-01-05T21:19:00.000-08:002024-01-13T06:43:44.078-08:00The Science of Solar Ponds Challenges the Climate Crisis<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-l0Rf9NokqUNLqhlP8XdH7SHdexdBC1bdFbjxP3dhZAzIFEzbLuAZCrvgquGTwqIk0w66SrcD5v3CU0I6isAJsjozkXIpWaswQOuniC36qaHRQDQLAVWQTWRgZylkm0YXOtT3UIixsc-V0N8oKLegUQaMtKwBYFpoL_QiLJbbIXl2jm1S227EM09yFQ/s952/solar%20pond%20layers1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="704" data-original-width="952" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-l0Rf9NokqUNLqhlP8XdH7SHdexdBC1bdFbjxP3dhZAzIFEzbLuAZCrvgquGTwqIk0w66SrcD5v3CU0I6isAJsjozkXIpWaswQOuniC36qaHRQDQLAVWQTWRgZylkm0YXOtT3UIixsc-V0N8oKLegUQaMtKwBYFpoL_QiLJbbIXl2jm1S227EM09yFQ/w400-h296/solar%20pond%20layers1.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This is the transcript to the video at https://youtu.be/wl3_YQ_Vufo</span></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone.
</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Today I want to demonstrate how the science of solar ponds can provide useful inexpensive heating, without the need for exotic materials. Furthermore, an understanding the science of solar pond heating will profoundly change how you view climate crisis narratives.
Despite air temperatures averaging 68F, solar ponds can fantastically almost triple temperatures in their bottom layer to over 190F. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">There are 2 major ways to raise a solar ponds' temperature:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><b>Radiative heating and Dynamical heating. </b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Radiative heating, increases the amount of light energy. Sunny days raise temperatures more than cloudy days. But high solar pond temperatures can peak without any change radiative heating due to dynamical heating. Dynamical heating happens by suppressing convection & cooling, so that heat accumulates and drives very high temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Solar pond dynamical heating suppresses cooling by creating a density gradient, with fresh water at the surface and dense salt water at the bottom. Because the dense salty bottom water is heavier, it doesn't rise to the surface, despite warming to 190F. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Bottom layer heat can only ventilate via its micron thick skin surface. Unable to rise to the skin surface, heat rapidly accumulates in the bottom layer.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Solar pond science is based primarily on an 8th grade understanding that things less dense than water will float and denser things will sink. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisQ4UtarT4kn_ugxG_M6FgsIDqWSivlY_cIafcDqEd0NosCabwnuL3VlRkDzmFyLzwLhyff7-CcrDWd4sKBmOYY0TMybiRJeTtlA5okgubHlqlwYmxPAkPOgNzGhZxCrlpTEEGm8X77478l7dkAdR4XeUIpU1bJZ2NRXJm92_tsTqaz2XMqOFYDCaMCw/s305/stove%20top%20convection.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="251" data-original-width="305" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisQ4UtarT4kn_ugxG_M6FgsIDqWSivlY_cIafcDqEd0NosCabwnuL3VlRkDzmFyLzwLhyff7-CcrDWd4sKBmOYY0TMybiRJeTtlA5okgubHlqlwYmxPAkPOgNzGhZxCrlpTEEGm8X77478l7dkAdR4XeUIpU1bJZ2NRXJm92_tsTqaz2XMqOFYDCaMCw/w320-h263/stove%20top%20convection.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A pot of water on your stove first heats the bottom layer. Heating makes the bottom layer expand and become less dense. That causes a convection current with the warmer water rising and cooler denser water from the top sinking. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But that dynamic doesn’t happen in a salt pond, because the bottom water's high salt concentrations overcome any heating effect. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Typical density demonstrations for 8th grade science use colored water to visualize salinity effects and are available online. For example, on the left side of the container, the yellow water is fresh. The blue-green water with added salt, here measured at 35 parts per thousand, was added but immediately sank below the fresh water. To continue the demonstration, green water separated on the right side had only half the salt, 17 ppt. When the separator was removed, that water inserted between the fresher and denser layers. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWjEZllNnr4iv0_GFI49okoXQRAbHTKwGhNJ3md02DB_slRDvoJloNOpe5ZWf9U49e1eWoATDv3c9-NFAqC0VT62Ve7-89mjeYbvL5iFw89ZWsoOUaxTyJ58_3lzwZlN9Q_zjadj_BJ5hk0yAo4zWEUBJa1naCGDIFlD-1VJtIhT8RKuJMwAAeNr-rBg/s3542/desnity%20demo%20and%20layered%20liqueur.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="3542" height="116" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWjEZllNnr4iv0_GFI49okoXQRAbHTKwGhNJ3md02DB_slRDvoJloNOpe5ZWf9U49e1eWoATDv3c9-NFAqC0VT62Ve7-89mjeYbvL5iFw89ZWsoOUaxTyJ58_3lzwZlN9Q_zjadj_BJ5hk0yAo4zWEUBJa1naCGDIFlD-1VJtIhT8RKuJMwAAeNr-rBg/w640-h116/desnity%20demo%20and%20layered%20liqueur.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Adults have embraced this science, making layered cocktails using liqueurs with different densities, such as this Patriot drink for the 4th of July. Hopefully, adults can extend that understanding to better understand our changing climate. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Here's a closer look at salt pond dynamics. Ponds are typically just 10.5 feet deep. An upper layer of fresh water must be maintained at a depth of 1.6 feet. Temperatures in this layer never get hot enough to be useful as it is constantly cooled by radiating heat away or by losing it via evaporation and contact with the air. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPT0zEBj9r9wLMrevbN-PLSDdWYFld0Ol4cZ2cfELMX7MIBKANTLQaKzZXGtpiywjm4n2YbT7jZ2xUxjrRHPmdQHFRrFjCUoQ9_fFFmLDuYBvRXyOu8uJT8W2u8x1X60mejB_4VfMS6ZNfL0Nwgy9hjAE83pulMQPjI6obIF8Bnz2E8snZnSQXmbEVfQ/s2035/salt%20pond%20depths.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1535" data-original-width="2035" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPT0zEBj9r9wLMrevbN-PLSDdWYFld0Ol4cZ2cfELMX7MIBKANTLQaKzZXGtpiywjm4n2YbT7jZ2xUxjrRHPmdQHFRrFjCUoQ9_fFFmLDuYBvRXyOu8uJT8W2u8x1X60mejB_4VfMS6ZNfL0Nwgy9hjAE83pulMQPjI6obIF8Bnz2E8snZnSQXmbEVfQ/w640-h482/salt%20pond%20depths.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The pond's bottom half is nearly 5 feet thick and saturated with salt. That water is too dense to rise and mix with the fresh surface layer. So unable to convect upwards and cool, the heat accumulates. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The trapped hotter bottom water is then circulated to heat a building or a greenhouse. Or the near boiling temperatures can drive turbines that generate electricity. Although solar ponds can never solve all our energy needs, the most promising environmental application is desalinization. Ocean water provides an endless cheap supply of salty water. Producing fresh water for desalinization reduces water withdrawal from our streams and rivers, thus benefitting aquatic animals. Desalinization would also reduce ground water withdrawals that have caused many coastal cities to sink closer to and below sea level. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmWs13QZ7bsBTjseTX1tp7NCA9prNjVc2nTTfzclJSwPwezWOrUJmy6O_4x8yhefzqblqL1daq-G3US4X_QuF_4jcDovzEhTk5jEFCqJUE7bVCKiFrRJaaCcNYBs9SI1hyt2L3ZupQefrx_l0JSCKUg61Pv7mlbBbMmZv-EbE4fTJZsEzLd8kzhFXBXQ/s916/solar%20pond%20uses.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="916" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmWs13QZ7bsBTjseTX1tp7NCA9prNjVc2nTTfzclJSwPwezWOrUJmy6O_4x8yhefzqblqL1daq-G3US4X_QuF_4jcDovzEhTk5jEFCqJUE7bVCKiFrRJaaCcNYBs9SI1hyt2L3ZupQefrx_l0JSCKUg61Pv7mlbBbMmZv-EbE4fTJZsEzLd8kzhFXBXQ/w400-h291/solar%20pond%20uses.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The same dynamical heating seen in solar ponds is ubiquitous throughout nature. Antarctica's Lake Vanda (highlighted by red rectangle and red dot in upper left), provides a testimonial to the power of dynamical heating. Despite brutal sub-freezing air temperatures averaging from -22F to 5 F, heat accumulates in its bottom layers and reaches room temperature, 70F. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOl3r5S6ieENVjLtvXac_vZn6hqf4qa3yCuQsAh4XSY75JLqx_fLuocVskoCFoaQue1ExQ5n3YRx9yqX17SzwqGQJOrH7ZgBL8iaq1tgp72_6kBoxuGxYQcasznQP_tavuaCI_dS6SXyWMwzsCgSBAw72lAOuN7Wh-YgmJpX0GEFjUwd01YBAHo4ic_A/s3932/lake%20vannda.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1375" data-original-width="3932" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOl3r5S6ieENVjLtvXac_vZn6hqf4qa3yCuQsAh4XSY75JLqx_fLuocVskoCFoaQue1ExQ5n3YRx9yqX17SzwqGQJOrH7ZgBL8iaq1tgp72_6kBoxuGxYQcasznQP_tavuaCI_dS6SXyWMwzsCgSBAw72lAOuN7Wh-YgmJpX0GEFjUwd01YBAHo4ic_A/w640-h224/lake%20vannda.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">That amplification of solar heating is more amazing when you consider Lake Vanda receives very little sunshine for half the year, receiving just 40% of the sunshine entering tropical waters. Furthermore, the sunlight that reaches the bottom layers is minimal, being at the depth limit of sunlight penetration. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Nor does greenhouse warming from CO2 contribute at all. Researchers have shown Antarctica gets so cold, that uniquely, greenhouse gases there have a cooling effect. Like the bottom layer of a salt pond, it is the salty bottom layer of Lake Vanda that accumulates heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Although short wave energy from the sun and longwave energy from greenhouse gases are all measured in W/m2, they affect water very differently! (For those unfamiliar with Watts, it is simply a measure of energy per second. More Watts simply indicate more energy).
Using 260 W/m2 as the average shortwave solar energy entering the water, the uppermost layers absorb the most energy. Without a salinity effect the upper layers are the warmest.
Solar penetration then declines with depth. In completely clear water, absorbed solar energy is reduced to near zero at a 100 meters depth. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRdss0o1Kf329vbhcNve0shMJmBptIoEV1EL5SwSevXn9hiGnNwUKuiHniPWuuF9A6DPulnQhyOylegmu00bN4lpVmuXBYjUcIeIzv0371VLqG2KLCztR5xnCdQVpCk1Zg3XO11F1dVm1o9ixbH-JLtbLHM77HrhwEo-CYOWgYEoZvzkYOBrXaFI-nQ/s2204/solar%20penetration.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1805" data-original-width="2204" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHRdss0o1Kf329vbhcNve0shMJmBptIoEV1EL5SwSevXn9hiGnNwUKuiHniPWuuF9A6DPulnQhyOylegmu00bN4lpVmuXBYjUcIeIzv0371VLqG2KLCztR5xnCdQVpCk1Zg3XO11F1dVm1o9ixbH-JLtbLHM77HrhwEo-CYOWgYEoZvzkYOBrXaFI-nQ/w400-h328/solar%20penetration.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The added red line approximates the typical solar pond depth of 10.5 feet. At that depth, enough heat is absorbed and accumulates quickly enough for efficient practical use of its heat, by raising temperatures to over 180F. Deeper ponds are avoided because as solar penetration declines, the average bottom temperatures also decline making it less efficient for any practical use. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6xKAM_sdSM2dc5ieaDqRor-R89oOK2neOUElk2C5zkCdNcA8q7PcNN-x9TpGOlk6ckzP4eMh6mqvnsOo0f6fVMJHbsiyUwhEXwXq0zyLlLTyuoQYvPvPA_KkadoGKMg5ttDobAg0wYzqSWtj90FRgowp-xUd1e6GuWpBl_1f1zJkXak0XiV1qAF3SNQ/s294/ocean%20temperature%20gradient.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="294" data-original-width="179" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6xKAM_sdSM2dc5ieaDqRor-R89oOK2neOUElk2C5zkCdNcA8q7PcNN-x9TpGOlk6ckzP4eMh6mqvnsOo0f6fVMJHbsiyUwhEXwXq0zyLlLTyuoQYvPvPA_KkadoGKMg5ttDobAg0wYzqSWtj90FRgowp-xUd1e6GuWpBl_1f1zJkXak0XiV1qAF3SNQ/w390-h640/ocean%20temperature%20gradient.gif" width="390" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The generalized temperature gradient in lakes and oceans is just the opposite of what is observed in solar ponds, or Lake Vanda or everywhere there is a salinity effect. Without a salty layer to trap subsurface heat, upper layers are always warmer than deeper layers. The upper layer can have a uniform temperature because the winds and convection constantly mix the water. Below 200 meters, the deep water uniformly averages 39°F (4°C) </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, the mixed layer's temperature is not completely uniform. The skin layer is almost always cooler than the warmer mixed layer below. The skin layer averages just a few microns deep. But any heat absorbed in the mixed layer of the ocean, or a salt pond, can only escape via that very shallow skin layer. The skin layer is cooler because it is constantly losing heat to the atmosphere. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIGQXZV4l6AmGg5dlI_VZNmNCVigDccGddEJEgr8XfduhiZSxwEj7hU0-JPwQY4s1n9WzQlsrt7WkjtLWGLA3bJIKARgo9Z4GKu7u6RjvnzC95_J6QRbwQgSAhv3YhU7fTDzvbelpGlTdGvNI5uUrXpr5gSkoeQWvR6QRmqUTYYrJ7Mh9tu07A1KokVg/s3492/skin%20layer%20diurnal%20cycle.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1443" data-original-width="3492" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIGQXZV4l6AmGg5dlI_VZNmNCVigDccGddEJEgr8XfduhiZSxwEj7hU0-JPwQY4s1n9WzQlsrt7WkjtLWGLA3bJIKARgo9Z4GKu7u6RjvnzC95_J6QRbwQgSAhv3YhU7fTDzvbelpGlTdGvNI5uUrXpr5gSkoeQWvR6QRmqUTYYrJ7Mh9tu07A1KokVg/w640-h264/skin%20layer%20diurnal%20cycle.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The mixed layer is warmer because its heated water must first rise next to the skin layer, where heat is slowly transported via conduction and warms the skin layer. Only then can the mixed layer's absorbed solar heat be radiated away or be lost via evaporative cooling. That delay in cooling causes a daily temperature cycle with a warm solar-heated diurnal layer that cools during the night. Similarly deeper waters will accumulate heat during the summer and ventilate it during the winter. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast to deep solar heating, longwave greenhouse energy behaves very differently.
Although greenhouse energy supplies nearly twice the energy to the skin layer, that energy does not penetrate any deeper than a few microns. Thus, unlike the delayed cooling of deeper layers, absorbed greenhouse heat can be radiated back to space immediately. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1h5Ec1BJiyahfa8PFNIhPBu7iW2zewSukHg_omfe1Mt7_-AaG3gp15Wfv6MCdTOBYmPycNRZ1YdGEIRLbZY8ncThB9tdyNZYzcNLr7Wyu9vyxfgl8RosIbGSJ22Lc_olWn5JeGoH5WDBcgcv1UptqIkmWP3Z4nE4GhN5-WwA_g-c4bcP2TEdmHxqmdQ/s3153/long%20wave%20penetration%20minnett.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1860" data-original-width="3153" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1h5Ec1BJiyahfa8PFNIhPBu7iW2zewSukHg_omfe1Mt7_-AaG3gp15Wfv6MCdTOBYmPycNRZ1YdGEIRLbZY8ncThB9tdyNZYzcNLr7Wyu9vyxfgl8RosIbGSJ22Lc_olWn5JeGoH5WDBcgcv1UptqIkmWP3Z4nE4GhN5-WwA_g-c4bcP2TEdmHxqmdQ/w640-h378/long%20wave%20penetration%20minnett.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A 2018 ocean study measured 410 W/m2 of greenhouse longwave energy entering the ocean's skin surface, while simultaneously the skin surface radiated away 470 W/m2. The skin layer almost immediately radiated the 410 W/m2 of greenhouse heat back to space plus an additional 60 W/m2 of radiation from the rising solar-heated layers. In addition, the skin surface lost latent heat (LH) via evaporation and sensible heat (SH) via contact with the atmosphere. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Like the dense salty layers of a solar pond that trap and accumulate heat, oceans naturally have salty Barrier Layers, trapping heat that affects climate and extreme weather. Ocean "Barrier Layers" were first detected just 30 years ago, but since then 100s of studies point out the importance Barrier Layer heating and the need for such dynamical heating to be included more realistically in global climate models. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEippbeoOrhhFr509SUy07j7X6aYdWsskoaNcx24-flkpxaweki8EPhEYug4o97UM7TV7XD5R1BNHeCfuFAhiVGqtBI2A7AgPQAXhijexh9T8hblV70qVrS0O0T2AlkXCMzVVCcWLlKWuY2SVn3KDbag3iBjRcWLkLfkI0EkUnsWgg-WxpTXknuoy5UnIw/s2007/barrier%20layer%201992.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2007" data-original-width="1902" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEippbeoOrhhFr509SUy07j7X6aYdWsskoaNcx24-flkpxaweki8EPhEYug4o97UM7TV7XD5R1BNHeCfuFAhiVGqtBI2A7AgPQAXhijexh9T8hblV70qVrS0O0T2AlkXCMzVVCcWLlKWuY2SVn3KDbag3iBjRcWLkLfkI0EkUnsWgg-WxpTXknuoy5UnIw/w606-h640/barrier%20layer%201992.png" width="606" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">While this 1992 diagram may seem a bit confusing at first glance, the science of a Barrier Layer isn't much more complex than concepts taught in 8th grade. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The black line shows how measured temperatures change with depth. The blue line shows salinity changes and the red line shows density changes. Based on density, in this study the ocean's upper 40 meters represents the ocean's well "mixed layer" where temperature and salinity are homogeneous. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The middle layer highlighted in orange, is the Barrier Layer between 40 & 80 meters depth. Despite declining solar penetration, the Barrier Layer contains warm water similar to the upper mixed layer. Below the Barrier Layer is the colder thermocline where temperatures rapidly cool as solar penetration declines. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The increasing salinity and density of the Barrier Layer minimizes both any upward mixing of colder thermocline waters while trapping heat much longer than possible in the mixed layer. Barrier Layers are often detected because that trapped heat raises temperature higher than the upper mixed layers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo-Xxo7ZDYRvX4VLqavyDmbFRiU2Fs_Oe1rk2YBCoSUF1z97NPr_LoiCQC9uQ140VtPfUcvekRX6hI4LGn45wkqbwJ-F2UR7krJTOEUB9QC7QZgRyXhWsaWYnFrCDWmAriOO8x_XQT6c5W7IfGAhMXanuiapGTyMtEpenwCsMgwuQl8MzN88kYnLrgDg/s1020/hurricane.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="1020" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo-Xxo7ZDYRvX4VLqavyDmbFRiU2Fs_Oe1rk2YBCoSUF1z97NPr_LoiCQC9uQ140VtPfUcvekRX6hI4LGn45wkqbwJ-F2UR7krJTOEUB9QC7QZgRyXhWsaWYnFrCDWmAriOO8x_XQT6c5W7IfGAhMXanuiapGTyMtEpenwCsMgwuQl8MzN88kYnLrgDg/w400-h210/hurricane.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /> </span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Several studies have recently shown that understanding ocean Barrier Layers provides valuable knowledge for predicting intense deadly hurricanes and cyclones. Without a Barrier Layer, hurricanes rapidly pull cool thermocline waters into the mixed layer, weakening the heat supply that drives the storms. In contrast, a thick Barrier Layer helps a storm maintain its intensity by inhibiting that upward circulation of cooler water. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast to media fear mongering, the international disaster database, shows climate-related deaths since the 1920s have plummeted from nearly 250 per million to less than 10. Our increasing ability to predict and prepare for devastating storms has largely been responsible for this success. And our increasing understanding of the effects of Barrier Layers is improving that knowledge. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKX_9lrgTjUN_wBTRhmjNno_NxtpN2BiprxDnpSbxz3qnQ_re_2x955EfmewpOrYgmyYV9UpOMX8xJdG7VZ9mFTB74PKJgU1j3JdceDDyhBykw5KdyAg5YYjm1Z1rZ1Ct_84IDRZ9q8l1lY4n5GKeH2UNkcgZsJD2qOEgkR4r-XjMru9_1mKoQoVNR8A/s4271/climate%20and%20winter%20deaths.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1782" data-original-width="4271" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKX_9lrgTjUN_wBTRhmjNno_NxtpN2BiprxDnpSbxz3qnQ_re_2x955EfmewpOrYgmyYV9UpOMX8xJdG7VZ9mFTB74PKJgU1j3JdceDDyhBykw5KdyAg5YYjm1Z1rZ1Ct_84IDRZ9q8l1lY4n5GKeH2UNkcgZsJD2qOEgkR4r-XjMru9_1mKoQoVNR8A/w640-h268/climate%20and%20winter%20deaths.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Also, as illustrated by this study in England, the number of deaths, (represented by the vertical bars) increase, as temperatures decrease (represented by the curves). Peak deaths correlate with the coldest temperatures from December through February. The good news is, there is reason to believe that any accumulation of heat in our oceans' Barrier Layers could drive warmer & milder temperatures and reduce winter deaths. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Pacific Warm Pool is the earth’s greatest example of a natural solar pond. The warm pool contains the earth's warmest body of ocean water averaging between 82F and 90F. Because the warm pool generates the earth's greatest amount of heat and moisture which then gets transported across the world and affects global climates, it is nicknamed the "earth's climate heat engine". The warm pool has been increasing since the end of the Little Ice Age, correlated with our 150 years of global warming. Warm pool warmth has also sustained the greatest diversity and abundance of coral reefs, giving the region another nickname "the Coral Triangle".</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi04rUtA6FgBr3cJAuAkKll7Gu4pGqtaHt_43-SzxA5jTGIJjUwxaDF9gALh84-1ga6A6rP247UQ9nZ6Pv0H4MtmUyovGQn3Rw653PSUDQtBrbKmmi1ylvvIvu4W_AoIy_u-PbcvKchVUrs8MvJdPdAfiNohWgSfnuDxpIFzSTzjALIMQKcjUHYJwewHw/s3960/warm%20pool%20and%20coral%20triangle.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1686" data-original-width="3960" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi04rUtA6FgBr3cJAuAkKll7Gu4pGqtaHt_43-SzxA5jTGIJjUwxaDF9gALh84-1ga6A6rP247UQ9nZ6Pv0H4MtmUyovGQn3Rw653PSUDQtBrbKmmi1ylvvIvu4W_AoIy_u-PbcvKchVUrs8MvJdPdAfiNohWgSfnuDxpIFzSTzjALIMQKcjUHYJwewHw/w640-h272/warm%20pool%20and%20coral%20triangle.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The size of the warm pool and its stored heat increases during La Nina-like conditions, and La Nina-like conditions have predominated over the past 150 years. During La Nina -like conditions the trade winds remove surface water heated in the eastern Pacific and sweeps it westward to the warm pool. There, with the assistance of a strong Barrier Layer, heat is stored as deep as 200 meters. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The removal of warm surface water results in a cooler eastern Pacific which reduces cloud cover. That increases solar heating and increases evaporation, producing saltier surface waters. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrD9d1uIeXiyHDTPBwPeK-YqNeAuz3GGi_qhdXgPL6kqDn9gPItxKdFSqh03eXMguKA4pL5TayU7Og9NFRShFFwiR-Sv84-Bo30KbeA-oxSvRt6yGJcmuTKvTSZg1gclwTziJnag6KFvRqTKSR_C6MpRvsI7D1SQp5WtBxa64csXTuZKvoXg1Nhv1_YA/s2507/la%20nina%20and%20evaporative%20subtropics.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1975" data-original-width="2507" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrD9d1uIeXiyHDTPBwPeK-YqNeAuz3GGi_qhdXgPL6kqDn9gPItxKdFSqh03eXMguKA4pL5TayU7Og9NFRShFFwiR-Sv84-Bo30KbeA-oxSvRt6yGJcmuTKvTSZg1gclwTziJnag6KFvRqTKSR_C6MpRvsI7D1SQp5WtBxa64csXTuZKvoXg1Nhv1_YA/w640-h504/la%20nina%20and%20evaporative%20subtropics.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The red regions here represent the areas where ocean evaporation exceeds precipitation, increasing surface salinity. The trade winds then transport that warm salty water westward, where the higher salinity drives dynamical heating of the warm pool. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The warm pool's freshwater layer, required to create a natural solar pond, is provided by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. The ITCZ produces 32% of all global rainfall. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In this December 28th, 2022, screen shot from a national weather service model, the lighter blue represents the regions with the most rainfall, and ITCZ’s location. The observed heaviest rainfall over the warm pool completes the conditions needed to accumulate the warm pool heat that powers our earth's heat engine. Despite solar pond dynamics, warm pool temperatures never reach the extreme levels observed in solar ponds. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQkVSYbhy7rOZU11DTkZULvfmkOm8yS5dPkfQpojxbBVrWghlE2EBNf5l-_x_4JtjxXtoHLQAdgIusJTfG6l0n2UqjV0VXE9GbhMU3dPsdhIxaQbs-ptrTiTQiCG9vLFBt0euWpiZH1EsEmXfnHTTuOMeo5ON-85ysGIRNnCC5qa5LdzXGxWUL4FFlvQ/s2882/ITCZ%20and%20December%20screen%20shot.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1975" data-original-width="2882" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQkVSYbhy7rOZU11DTkZULvfmkOm8yS5dPkfQpojxbBVrWghlE2EBNf5l-_x_4JtjxXtoHLQAdgIusJTfG6l0n2UqjV0VXE9GbhMU3dPsdhIxaQbs-ptrTiTQiCG9vLFBt0euWpiZH1EsEmXfnHTTuOMeo5ON-85ysGIRNnCC5qa5LdzXGxWUL4FFlvQ/w640-h438/ITCZ%20and%20December%20screen%20shot.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Three major dynamics prevent such extreme warming. First, warmer ocean temperatures enable more intense atmospheric convection that removes heat via evaporation. The second factor is an El Nino. During an El Nino the warm water stored deeply in the warm pool migrates eastward towards the Americas. That brings deeply stored warm water closer to the surface where it can now ventilate and shifts heavy rainfall to the eastern Pacific. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During each El Nino event (represented here by the red arrows), the ventilation of stored ocean heat confusingly raises the global air temperature. The media incorrectly attributes such warmer air temperatures to global warming. But counter-intuitively the earth is really cooling because heat that had been stored in the warm pool for years is now being ventilated back to space. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOp8GMvkQ_aZ7J2z6Eav_qP0sSjFxGfQ5h0rGfNn1IPIM2b4rOBOozQ5ovXNnTPb1VAB-Q-IwLQpNbLJvCgdvBQLEhddTpBIQ5WMwtj74UNLv6aiSpCpjlrD3Gcu8SxoU0EVYs8YnLqGSvr6IsB3RMxtUGCDE00s5NAYEKw8mwjvlYzScnonY41gKKVw/s2910/el%20nino%20and%20temp%20spikes.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1915" data-original-width="2910" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOp8GMvkQ_aZ7J2z6Eav_qP0sSjFxGfQ5h0rGfNn1IPIM2b4rOBOozQ5ovXNnTPb1VAB-Q-IwLQpNbLJvCgdvBQLEhddTpBIQ5WMwtj74UNLv6aiSpCpjlrD3Gcu8SxoU0EVYs8YnLqGSvr6IsB3RMxtUGCDE00s5NAYEKw8mwjvlYzScnonY41gKKVw/w640-h422/el%20nino%20and%20temp%20spikes.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Long term changes in the Pacific Warm Pool over thousands of years provide scientists with critical information about the most important factors controlling the world's heat engine and thus our weather today. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the Holocene Optimum around 10,000 to 8,000 years ago, the thermocline at the bottom of the warm pool, was over 1F warmer than today. Since that time, its temperature has steadily declined. In contrast, most climate models erroneously simulate steadily rising temperatures in the warm pool over the past 10,000 years. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE8qa7-nFJtJp8ykvQxPrUbx3drl9hKPuZKuSWpETjncWQgPmbgxA4o536ZFJcaO269AgEBI8jxeE3xaoOGzEPdIkftt1C2cv9CRT-lljlEU8IARxR4il4G0w_N4t8xwucxb5cZeD8dT_WpsPwHS3sioWg4jT4ujoiVkgIafEGNBG-wTucSHJi1-Au2g/s4161/holocene%20warm%20pool%20and%20CO2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1031" data-original-width="4161" height="158" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiE8qa7-nFJtJp8ykvQxPrUbx3drl9hKPuZKuSWpETjncWQgPmbgxA4o536ZFJcaO269AgEBI8jxeE3xaoOGzEPdIkftt1C2cv9CRT-lljlEU8IARxR4il4G0w_N4t8xwucxb5cZeD8dT_WpsPwHS3sioWg4jT4ujoiVkgIafEGNBG-wTucSHJi1-Au2g/w640-h158/holocene%20warm%20pool%20and%20CO2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">These modeling failures largely happen when warm pool temperatures are incorrectly assumed to be driven by rising CO2. Unfortunately, dynamical heating by the warm pool's Barrier Layers is not well modeled. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Ice cores find that CO2concentrations were at a low point 10,000 years ago and have increased throughout the Holocene. Despite all the evidence that the warm pool cooled while CO2 concentrations increased, insufficient climate models still suggest that rising CO2 will cause catastrophic ocean warming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The declining Holocene warm pool temperatures are better explained by increasing El Nino events. 10,000 years ago, El Nino events were more rare and most researchers suggest the Pacific ocean was predominantly in a La Nina-like state. (Note that the timeline direction is reversed in this graph). </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhktCdOwtGLauoSlvEbQC4rwS2kMGVkiGvL5mJUII7YmfEsHAHhqGdTJ24ZEJYbXDYw_BGwrp1dqW2YvoaKfKd29FsedeF6_Dv41DA2CzLahCW9_mKrViaC5vtjUP_9mntLkEMNwbXTuRgltHito8SdzPpgzfkmhDsxgyLqMD3bpT3MjFRXN8rWk_mEPw/s1558/holocene%20El%20Nino.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="976" data-original-width="1558" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhktCdOwtGLauoSlvEbQC4rwS2kMGVkiGvL5mJUII7YmfEsHAHhqGdTJ24ZEJYbXDYw_BGwrp1dqW2YvoaKfKd29FsedeF6_Dv41DA2CzLahCW9_mKrViaC5vtjUP_9mntLkEMNwbXTuRgltHito8SdzPpgzfkmhDsxgyLqMD3bpT3MjFRXN8rWk_mEPw/w640-h400/holocene%20El%20Nino.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Changes in the sun's strength have also played a role. Based on carbon-14 dating, the coldest period of the Holocene, the Little Ice Age, coincides with a weaker sun and sunspot minimums. Despite higher CO2 concentrations than the Holocene Optimum, during the Little Ice Age, Arctic sea ice reached both its greatest extent and thickness in 10,000 years. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Most researchers have determined the Pacific Ocean was in an El Nino -like state during the little ice age. Although slightly lower solar output during sunspot minimums, would only slightly weaken radiative heating, lower solar heating does weaken the trade winds causing a much greater effect on dynamical heating of the warm pool. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzthlSJFH5n7VnIad0u79qDg7p2G3IXaQjF5gD5b3tHb-tDBWmla08-d1Q6BVnlzgWkeWAUZhPz8FOYuh4uX94GOo671hs-WEcIYPpM_uHZUmPNhhDrNcsCEmpvrzPpYipLCWkEI2qr7j899mPkGwGHuZ8AZ933eB6Ys-4R3r1SI9quc6XVdDNrlfehw/s1287/LIA%20c14.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="971" data-original-width="1287" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzthlSJFH5n7VnIad0u79qDg7p2G3IXaQjF5gD5b3tHb-tDBWmla08-d1Q6BVnlzgWkeWAUZhPz8FOYuh4uX94GOo671hs-WEcIYPpM_uHZUmPNhhDrNcsCEmpvrzPpYipLCWkEI2qr7j899mPkGwGHuZ8AZ933eB6Ys-4R3r1SI9quc6XVdDNrlfehw/w400-h301/LIA%20c14.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Extreme warm pool temperatures are also prevented because its accumulated heat is constantly exported. The pathways of warm ocean currents emanating from the tropics and moving towards the poles are illustrated here in pink. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Satellite data reveal where more heat enters the ocean than leaves (shown in red). The location of the greatest heat entering the ocean is consistent with La Nina like conditions. Regions shown in blue represent regions where exported tropical heat is ventilated and warms the air in that region, warmer than local radiative heat would. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPEGCC-JJX4g0fK4Q8ncIfyGgZER08TW0_Zm0aNUPUpMHLU3rxRlFzCvPL4j_624ZT_GfSxWlCea4_Ay4qCc0WxGeVZoxw7zHrs5dbGU2-dPRKrfTrkhu4nc-GYiDWcBzAGu65CMx57DkyEf5LCLPI3mio4-UyFMopvtXyrSxVkeP8On6rT5nUFaMvyg/s4299/ocean%20currents%20and%20heat%20flux.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1388" data-original-width="4299" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPEGCC-JJX4g0fK4Q8ncIfyGgZER08TW0_Zm0aNUPUpMHLU3rxRlFzCvPL4j_624ZT_GfSxWlCea4_Ay4qCc0WxGeVZoxw7zHrs5dbGU2-dPRKrfTrkhu4nc-GYiDWcBzAGu65CMx57DkyEf5LCLPI3mio4-UyFMopvtXyrSxVkeP8On6rT5nUFaMvyg/w640-h206/ocean%20currents%20and%20heat%20flux.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">I'll end here with an extreme example demonstrating the enormous impact of exported heat from ocean warm pools and its effect on the earth's climate. When antarctica was part of a single continent called Pangea, Antarctica was insulated from ocean currents, and accordingly much of Antarctica was glaciated. During the Cretaceous period, 94 million years ago, the continents were separating, allowing warm waters from the tropics to reach Antarctica. Despite being centered over the south pole, warm ocean currents promoted a warm Antarctic climate where dinosaurs thrived. Thick coal producing forests survived after the dinosaur extinctions. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIkQ91-0rQjh1aR76wBFuZkUGdjkrQ_24pot9cJFKRVM79x3vasMlABu60ndP5ATwXgxSs0uF-kGuuYc613LKE9J9x86hbR3FI6wzjKCDROjVNS_dp-DzEo1soAoOEUA4aVFsXDAU_fwGSWGfFZx9Hc1itTwq2TTTCCIlRbPQnidCz0pdSnvXV66i-A/s4267/cretaceous%20antarcrtica%20%20dino.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="893" data-original-width="4267" height="134" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIkQ91-0rQjh1aR76wBFuZkUGdjkrQ_24pot9cJFKRVM79x3vasMlABu60ndP5ATwXgxSs0uF-kGuuYc613LKE9J9x86hbR3FI6wzjKCDROjVNS_dp-DzEo1soAoOEUA4aVFsXDAU_fwGSWGfFZx9Hc1itTwq2TTTCCIlRbPQnidCz0pdSnvXV66i-A/w640-h134/cretaceous%20antarcrtica%20%20dino.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As the continents continued to spread, about 35 million years ago, Antarctica became an island surrounded by the Antarctic Circum-polar Current, and once again tropical heat was blocked from reaching Antarctica. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As a result, despite CO2 concentrations 4 times higher than today, glaciers began forming in Antarctica, and Antarctica has continued to became so cold that only one vertebrate species, the Emperor Penguin, can survive its winter. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDYbqygd-N6eSGuWaELNRoRAaxgMu2oD7fJ7QQjNq395ex_uI4rdxm9hujzZw9dUE0ty_QdswajNxl8bhSw8_4E8E6aL6T6mpvydKMmB2mhKefm_kYBapjdykToMTR2ZP3VZJvjOJOn2KnM8Ta9ucoMGuSMuvRenikqdWHcikPFEILofaAKa8u5dkL4A/s3492/ACC%20and%20Emperor%20penguins.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1232" data-original-width="3492" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDYbqygd-N6eSGuWaELNRoRAaxgMu2oD7fJ7QQjNq395ex_uI4rdxm9hujzZw9dUE0ty_QdswajNxl8bhSw8_4E8E6aL6T6mpvydKMmB2mhKefm_kYBapjdykToMTR2ZP3VZJvjOJOn2KnM8Ta9ucoMGuSMuvRenikqdWHcikPFEILofaAKa8u5dkL4A/w640-h226/ACC%20and%20Emperor%20penguins.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So before adopting bizarre solutions by egomaniacs like Bill Gates, who is working to block the sun and cool the planet, please examine all the science. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjvYi7co6d_lHA2g2SycW6X5sFEKJIRzJSvZIwhFxZgLKUBYjBCeFfPTYELXj-SEM7gULABLnxyswsKhxNFEaI5SejAlpdkn1DZqHcB9zwwq19WWe-8H_0Nd6cyd0oy1YvDf5bjZvj8z_dgNjQS78tV9G3xQ_cToQlv04xWWFOIBoFleN7cJwmSzCMHg/s1500/bill%20gates%20dim.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1500" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjvYi7co6d_lHA2g2SycW6X5sFEKJIRzJSvZIwhFxZgLKUBYjBCeFfPTYELXj-SEM7gULABLnxyswsKhxNFEaI5SejAlpdkn1DZqHcB9zwwq19WWe-8H_0Nd6cyd0oy1YvDf5bjZvj8z_dgNjQS78tV9G3xQ_cToQlv04xWWFOIBoFleN7cJwmSzCMHg/w400-h209/bill%20gates%20dim.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Likewise before believing, we are plunging into a human-caused climate crisis, please ask: </span></p>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">How does radiative and dynamical heating increase warm pool temperatures?</b></li></ul><br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><b>How does greenhouse energy possibly heat below the skin surface?</b></span></li></ul><br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">How does exported heat from warm pools affect our climate and what are the contributions of natural La Nina and El Nino-like conditions.</b></li></ul><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">If you follow all the science undeniably affecting our climate, you just might sleep better tonight knowing there is no climate crisis. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCJaHqI5Wr7KoHKK5O4gksNpJsQ9qiR0xDHdtAomw6hlZo4mayd-8GB1hrH8iuXYb4gy0glzVPSqkLupwockH4LWS2aVQIlSiPnV_XbYvBFz9knuMJzy9bY1lI-4O6WwXjFXBh2Ty8n63aMU2yisgFZXYzVevW0YxT_rJ6O-PIxRLL7F4KQgsWcyXeCA/s1144/no%20climate%20crisis.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="430" data-original-width="1144" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCJaHqI5Wr7KoHKK5O4gksNpJsQ9qiR0xDHdtAomw6hlZo4mayd-8GB1hrH8iuXYb4gy0glzVPSqkLupwockH4LWS2aVQIlSiPnV_XbYvBFz9knuMJzy9bY1lI-4O6WwXjFXBh2Ty8n63aMU2yisgFZXYzVevW0YxT_rJ6O-PIxRLL7F4KQgsWcyXeCA/w640-h268/no%20climate%20crisis.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Our democracy depends on a diverse array of good critical thinkers. So, please shun mindless group think. Instead embrace renowned scientist, Thomas Huxley’s advice: </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><b></b></span></p><blockquote><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><b> “Skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin.” </b></span></blockquote><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">so if you appreciate the science clearly presented here, science rarely presented by mainstream media then please click the like button, share and subscribe to this channel and leave a comment</span></p>
<p></p>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-90219587844641995202022-10-26T22:37:00.008-07:002022-10-26T22:46:37.132-07:00CLIMATE FEAR MONGERING: BAD ANALYSES PRODUCE BAD REMEDIES<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> This is the transcript to a presentation I am giving to a few local groups. The video seen at </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: #fff9ee; color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, "Palatino Linotype", Palatino, serif; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://youtu.be/pZIlMwGIVCI">https://youtu.be/pZIlMwGIVCI</a></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBNJebrq0Crk76dpFQ14GZ7kDbDvbWofyVsTIR476rX4Aj6M7e7w1HEz6rFkhFpiRwA2i5t__tn6lTG9n94NhBothPszoQLoO86bTld-80XDdAqBlGiGPlJgqsuKHaPf7VYM1mybsX0G54NYaQDIrgpZk_bE_YSMWylNj2aDU2nhb4FvVVD_AXIS9Vzw/s2131/BAD%20ANALYSES%20PRODUCE%20BAD%20REMEDIES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1333" data-original-width="2131" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBNJebrq0Crk76dpFQ14GZ7kDbDvbWofyVsTIR476rX4Aj6M7e7w1HEz6rFkhFpiRwA2i5t__tn6lTG9n94NhBothPszoQLoO86bTld-80XDdAqBlGiGPlJgqsuKHaPf7VYM1mybsX0G54NYaQDIrgpZk_bE_YSMWylNj2aDU2nhb4FvVVD_AXIS9Vzw/w400-h250/BAD%20ANALYSES%20PRODUCE%20BAD%20REMEDIES.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></div><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Thanks for having me here. First, I am not a climate scientist. I am an ecologist, and I humbly note ecology requires a higher degree of thinking to untangle the many contributing causes of complex problems. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">While director of San Francisco State University's Sierra Nevada Field Campus, I was monitored 6 meadow systems in the Sierra Nevada for the Forest Service. One meadow began to dry, vegetation withered, and wildlife began disappearing.
When I showed students and colleagues this meadow's deterioration, I was struck by their knee jerk response. Despite just a half-hour visit, most declared this was just what global warming theory predicted. Rising CO2 was making the land warmer, drier and causing animals to go extinct. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6TLAkGXjlHMuzdfgZaytel2MiVCE7GilNUy8OGUfAQxthriOqBH1gsYDp4ikmGfo_HHFCXoiYrETYowzUwSQaa_9Yt1C6gmpBd79fA13NN2Fq_kjGoPWRJa7tjjYMi8QCAIk5xL2DOvD63I_90R160M7MxQ8Mr-bTke0oFEqHu7Dlv2MvjrumPmz63Q/s722/dried%20carman.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="722" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6TLAkGXjlHMuzdfgZaytel2MiVCE7GilNUy8OGUfAQxthriOqBH1gsYDp4ikmGfo_HHFCXoiYrETYowzUwSQaa_9Yt1C6gmpBd79fA13NN2Fq_kjGoPWRJa7tjjYMi8QCAIk5xL2DOvD63I_90R160M7MxQ8Mr-bTke0oFEqHu7Dlv2MvjrumPmz63Q/w400-h268/dried%20carman.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast, as an ecologist I had to consider landscape changes, geological history, changes to hydrology, biological interactions, as well as weather and natural climate changes. And I had been observing those effects for 15 years. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Historical temperatures revealed maximum temperatures were warmer in the 1930s. I eventually determined it was the disruption of stream flows and the water table that caused all the problems. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">We restored the streams, raised the water table and the meadow became more resilient during droughts and wildlife became more abundant. Lowering CO2 emissions would have had no impact. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG5d5GzLQL5ks1PgvRJskd6nNB-O3F2B05VYm5qjQ_BH7d9VCUqJgS8vhwM3ve4OgxkmbrYGmRTgb_Q5kiTp7wKFc7j3zH1DgNGtghG2evYYI2jyH7l_VURbj5QxlYvxEplrwV_UAbGWjFIlHNDUPKAA1Ei5RHlapFu7Ue96cqp-YQJZ6QOqS1ZYO5-A/s1503/Restored%20Carman%20Valley.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1133" data-original-width="1503" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG5d5GzLQL5ks1PgvRJskd6nNB-O3F2B05VYm5qjQ_BH7d9VCUqJgS8vhwM3ve4OgxkmbrYGmRTgb_Q5kiTp7wKFc7j3zH1DgNGtghG2evYYI2jyH7l_VURbj5QxlYvxEplrwV_UAbGWjFIlHNDUPKAA1Ei5RHlapFu7Ue96cqp-YQJZ6QOqS1ZYO5-A/w400-h301/Restored%20Carman%20Valley.png" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In their defense, the misguided knee jerk response by students and colleagues is a function of the constant drone by the media that rising CO2 is heating and drying the land and threatening mass extinctions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The media thrives on click bait stories that attract the public's attention. Fear sells and fires, floods, heatwaves, and droughts are scary. The media typically pushes only the scary scientific theories and ignores an abundance of more reasonable skeptical science. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvnxnIDV4XFPZBds21jEJZwR5Z5GzKgM2-dPagKUks31FlSBJ8DhxwtUKefoQRJP_UA___ssPdOQP3eoMb_NUXojYIIbkSx5ihsblLpzXbEl9bmkMNEG-eHkLaisUOSaAOATbDf7Jcw1gzF589Qrgus20WWVlSjg6KrTXhS2OsW4ewNNO-R3lz9aS_lw/s1742/WHAT%20CLIMATE%20CHANGE%20LOOKS%20LIKEE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="982" data-original-width="1742" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvnxnIDV4XFPZBds21jEJZwR5Z5GzKgM2-dPagKUks31FlSBJ8DhxwtUKefoQRJP_UA___ssPdOQP3eoMb_NUXojYIIbkSx5ihsblLpzXbEl9bmkMNEG-eHkLaisUOSaAOATbDf7Jcw1gzF589Qrgus20WWVlSjg6KrTXhS2OsW4ewNNO-R3lz9aS_lw/w400-h225/WHAT%20CLIMATE%20CHANGE%20LOOKS%20LIKEE.jpg" width="400" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghYaS7Y_SvYzQReoF8gA40wpnX_7p9HguDXOSZ_ilPr-mSf_duADw1Yl0kkYattbMkwoJ0s0dHW9COyVBSsB5Deksu0EBqSuCCAtjBJYkAVh4nWawW8EoShmBBwIoaq62VycgnJIYahPDZsspytAnlCYayEghksGvtMpZAnnYHxAzuR37aF1r-zeq4bA/s1920/FEAR%20SELLS.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghYaS7Y_SvYzQReoF8gA40wpnX_7p9HguDXOSZ_ilPr-mSf_duADw1Yl0kkYattbMkwoJ0s0dHW9COyVBSsB5Deksu0EBqSuCCAtjBJYkAVh4nWawW8EoShmBBwIoaq62VycgnJIYahPDZsspytAnlCYayEghksGvtMpZAnnYHxAzuR37aF1r-zeq4bA/w400-h225/FEAR%20SELLS.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I find it far more worrisome that we are generating hopelessness in our children with the constant ranting about a climate apocalypse and mass extinctions. There is a definite rise in depression among our kids that is certainly due in part to the media's end of the world stories. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVDY6lddkrk2P6ytnI58gGZYM9o_spU6R0cStRk6IXusq-1kAElmcSiIcTvwpn9Bcflp3ywux8yBf2zt-83gCfasvolw4n1tW8S1ibgnKpj-Amab16rLDqp9Y_GE7o2yGt_4U1g085YgBpqKBYZ9EHAPDRsNcNicCxHvNducx9DwfD9RmwwGOtJjd9Dg/s4400/CHILD%20HOPELESSNESS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1718" data-original-width="4400" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVDY6lddkrk2P6ytnI58gGZYM9o_spU6R0cStRk6IXusq-1kAElmcSiIcTvwpn9Bcflp3ywux8yBf2zt-83gCfasvolw4n1tW8S1ibgnKpj-Amab16rLDqp9Y_GE7o2yGt_4U1g085YgBpqKBYZ9EHAPDRsNcNicCxHvNducx9DwfD9RmwwGOtJjd9Dg/w640-h250/CHILD%20HOPELESSNESS.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It is even more scary that climate idiots like Bill Gates believes he can save the world, and that he is wealthy and powerful enough to fund foolish solutions like dimming the sunlight that reaches the earth by pumping more dust into the sky. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9MK0jHehJrjRX_ay7_5hcllHOFKFn2JphOt4WdAy49z7x63HBJSCgtgYfajNtIyQ8ZUJDDP4SMN2s9qAm1Zit35XhfVk9LzyzCEb0h3WBweGCB6eJRmJ8C2gNO8NGpYFtEe0PZGTFeO60OE9be5ffv3qBJ8WrXfySWsTG_wG9vTfJWMaad91ttZz9Sw/s1500/BILL%20GATES%20%20SUN.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1500" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9MK0jHehJrjRX_ay7_5hcllHOFKFn2JphOt4WdAy49z7x63HBJSCgtgYfajNtIyQ8ZUJDDP4SMN2s9qAm1Zit35XhfVk9LzyzCEb0h3WBweGCB6eJRmJ8C2gNO8NGpYFtEe0PZGTFeO60OE9be5ffv3qBJ8WrXfySWsTG_wG9vTfJWMaad91ttZz9Sw/w400-h209/BILL%20GATES%20%20SUN.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">To reduce global warming, fear crazed politicians have pushed fertilizer restrictions that will dangerously reduce our food supply and raise our food costs. And inspired by reduced traffic during the covid lockdowns, there is an extreme group of fringe lunatics advocating climate lockdowns to save your life. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsk8OSFlE3Nxl0IaC10htiT1Eno0esrqzaNQmrjBdgqHu4cvN2EnYiF6HjROsdmOJsM7PrqO82VUtH_MUBcb73jTUJUR8Fz_shxhHE0F96bZR_n1H5n9M4VOH3cxiKiAFDWkDNGk33bEnCBu8yEtfIH-YSkLaKVOcviH45oR0xUDV-j6azSqnTl3mD2A/s4125/FERTILIZER%20AND%20CLIMATE%20LOCKDOWN.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1920" data-original-width="4125" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsk8OSFlE3Nxl0IaC10htiT1Eno0esrqzaNQmrjBdgqHu4cvN2EnYiF6HjROsdmOJsM7PrqO82VUtH_MUBcb73jTUJUR8Fz_shxhHE0F96bZR_n1H5n9M4VOH3cxiKiAFDWkDNGk33bEnCBu8yEtfIH-YSkLaKVOcviH45oR0xUDV-j6azSqnTl3mD2A/w400-h186/FERTILIZER%20AND%20CLIMATE%20LOCKDOWN.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The media amplifies our fears by promoting unvetted scientific studies that argue climate change is linked to 5 million deaths a year. And it will cause 83 million excess deaths in 80 years. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But the data do not support such fear mongering. The International Disaster database reveals the climate related death risks per million people has dropped from about 250 to near zero since 1920. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB6UPNBuSgjGundZKv63Jy31Q1EaTfsyUFEwunYM-3RdRi1K6OMEr-DTGp3KXxzGx26VurXxPznyUiG1wfvTxCr2M3rKkqEiIKcfTS8pBsle2DcbHFruGae218p3QVWA39fjIbVCf63RnJ7rKLH5hwSTB-0ThiH0uvkDOiL2sTBJJwimWHhs3nBaYjRw/s1078/CLIMATEE%20DEATH%20RISKS%20REDUCED.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="1078" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiB6UPNBuSgjGundZKv63Jy31Q1EaTfsyUFEwunYM-3RdRi1K6OMEr-DTGp3KXxzGx26VurXxPznyUiG1wfvTxCr2M3rKkqEiIKcfTS8pBsle2DcbHFruGae218p3QVWA39fjIbVCf63RnJ7rKLH5hwSTB-0ThiH0uvkDOiL2sTBJJwimWHhs3nBaYjRw/w640-h332/CLIMATEE%20DEATH%20RISKS%20REDUCED.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">When gross mortality is examined for each month, it is the cold months of December thru February with the greatest deaths, while the warmest months have the fewest. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And there has been no rising trend in the death rate since 1998.
Us old farts battling diabetes and heart problems have the highest death rates (the pink line). So, I take comfort in knowing we are benefitting from slightly warmer temperatures. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr3xbFN8w-5Cx55CKbiwtjFIBtSLwjujZX0bHkYRXdrVnw6lBr3kfP3E8rgZ2XGwAdyh1lSsVl9Nxyl6g-3uWBgwK-GmLvfFEgHLBQ-DuWA6V2FTXVXlyKO2xjdmAIp9ZIrXbeNN-l0aw3a_XkeUsro16KJnYR3FOmZe8pJnknekW9HmsuTbvN7Tavxg/s4308/WINTER%20DEATH%20RATES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1498" data-original-width="4308" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhr3xbFN8w-5Cx55CKbiwtjFIBtSLwjujZX0bHkYRXdrVnw6lBr3kfP3E8rgZ2XGwAdyh1lSsVl9Nxyl6g-3uWBgwK-GmLvfFEgHLBQ-DuWA6V2FTXVXlyKO2xjdmAIp9ZIrXbeNN-l0aw3a_XkeUsro16KJnYR3FOmZe8pJnknekW9HmsuTbvN7Tavxg/w640-h222/WINTER%20DEATH%20RATES.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Consider the fact that many elderlies flee the colder states of the north to settle in the warmer states of the south, for their health and longevity. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">A person moving from New York to Florida will immediately experience a 20-degree Fahrenheit rise in average temperature. Yet the media and alarmist scientists claim just a 2.7-degree Fahrenheit rise over the last century due to climate change will cause millions of excess deaths. Such claims are simply dishonest fearmongering. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheJjZLkYkn4lUQdaEjLzJCbb0UXnyQ-YV_PGxYASCk_5Nu-BHruxOSZgvSiGp1fHm9jhf3jO8nC8lSxFbLBYIjHj6xUoiaNsR_oK1a0RNkRZl2l_x8EI_4DCsAUnzm8lgT5zIAbZyGc7XA-bcUr7UrNOEFdR2R7Ajxt2RrORUq9D1roVzk0bkTNePd8g/s1630/US%20LATITUDE%20TEMPERATURES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="844" data-original-width="1630" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheJjZLkYkn4lUQdaEjLzJCbb0UXnyQ-YV_PGxYASCk_5Nu-BHruxOSZgvSiGp1fHm9jhf3jO8nC8lSxFbLBYIjHj6xUoiaNsR_oK1a0RNkRZl2l_x8EI_4DCsAUnzm8lgT5zIAbZyGc7XA-bcUr7UrNOEFdR2R7Ajxt2RrORUq9D1roVzk0bkTNePd8g/w640-h333/US%20LATITUDE%20TEMPERATURES.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast to climate crisis narratives, heat waves are typically balanced by cooler temperatures elsewhere. The common wavy jet stream pattern across the United States brings above average warming to the west and simultaneously cooling to the east. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Beneath a jet stream's ridge, high pressure systems form. The dry descending air in a high-pressure system promotes cloudless conditions and greater solar heating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The descending air warms adiabatically and creates a heat dome by trapping heat at the surface. And the clockwise motion draws warm air up from the south. All these factors cause heat waves far more than greenhouse gases can. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSqAwe_KW_56MRmVZqKOuYKKkUy4WjkbcOvASmNV0bjVKkZk15iR_WPYtsKIzERrkRqbUjZsfbkriRG0aNYsGXjcrkrLk-BAlVryqUGVA-i3_NmsZDLsNEFhTQPX9yrZow7z9laeDifNqVlsiGQOBnBbNjblS7lK_4I1ybExAzAVOkmpFO8GUSIHkizQ/s2319/USE%20JEET%20STREEAM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1659" data-original-width="2319" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSqAwe_KW_56MRmVZqKOuYKKkUy4WjkbcOvASmNV0bjVKkZk15iR_WPYtsKIzERrkRqbUjZsfbkriRG0aNYsGXjcrkrLk-BAlVryqUGVA-i3_NmsZDLsNEFhTQPX9yrZow7z9laeDifNqVlsiGQOBnBbNjblS7lK_4I1ybExAzAVOkmpFO8GUSIHkizQ/w640-h458/USE%20JEET%20STREEAM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">A jet stream's trough creates a low-pressure system which causes air to rise and clouds to form and reducing solar heating. Its counterclockwise spin combines with the flow on the eastern side of an adjacent high-pressure to draw cold air down from the north. Such offsetting dynamics of warming and cooling are common outside the tropics. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Yet media outlets that want to scare you about climate change will cherry-pick just the regions experiencing the heat wave, as many did during the June 19, 2022, European heat wave. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHYCCBg9QX4vHnYkft3q4MdqFQzZS9lFK0NGHDRMQLy5gRDP9v0NrKriDViK7J2ishQpJXedL6eKNo95E-3o6ervbuwQPGG03M-v_pirHg9EDa_a_qA9Y2OBhWYty16rAs3-kcZ9DehJ5M9HnoGoxwKfmrl5_ie0YLPKWuehYEZKfKpHxxVNGBB9Yl3g/s564/EUROPE%202022%20HALF%20HEAT%20WAVE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="516" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHYCCBg9QX4vHnYkft3q4MdqFQzZS9lFK0NGHDRMQLy5gRDP9v0NrKriDViK7J2ishQpJXedL6eKNo95E-3o6ervbuwQPGG03M-v_pirHg9EDa_a_qA9Y2OBhWYty16rAs3-kcZ9DehJ5M9HnoGoxwKfmrl5_ie0YLPKWuehYEZKfKpHxxVNGBB9Yl3g/w366-h400/EUROPE%202022%20HALF%20HEAT%20WAVE.jpg" width="366" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast, honest weather people interested in truly educating the public about weather will provide the bigger picture, that also shows the cooling to the east.
It is impossible to blame global warming and a climate crisis for both a heat wave and simultaneous adjacent cold wave. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiZj_uEDhOyv1rGpegqJBMb1NlVrBmAyiYAydWQKes4udGxkFF_-2j1DlXaIXfKBUCYFVUS65TYAzlcoRq3amH9xNQje36sRoEwZSb242dgBxmmfO-FN4DPRwX_uumvcr6ZS6WhVhCZ0E6u8mAq_-RsAkTI_UmeE3W4qlOa3aOgUbgghQ1fSIfCP2CHA/s872/EUROPE%202022%20HEAT%20WAVE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="872" height="532" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiZj_uEDhOyv1rGpegqJBMb1NlVrBmAyiYAydWQKes4udGxkFF_-2j1DlXaIXfKBUCYFVUS65TYAzlcoRq3amH9xNQje36sRoEwZSb242dgBxmmfO-FN4DPRwX_uumvcr6ZS6WhVhCZ0E6u8mAq_-RsAkTI_UmeE3W4qlOa3aOgUbgghQ1fSIfCP2CHA/w640-h532/EUROPE%202022%20HEAT%20WAVE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">People get duped by climate change alarmists who constantly claim heat waves are getting worse. But again, EPA data does not support such claims. Heatwave frequency peaked in the 1930s, and the heat wave index today is like the 1900s. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSpfOIKSS92fQ4gXQMn0RkE5yDPHpeHYnsvlCDcin3URy2xkJJcrn6KwaLDrOHTgWg-5Ev4Jzyb5z0RATw0G6-jxEhMCdFsy4SHKI6J4hoVk1d-C198Abtt0MZVtYXUMEQQjwCn2eTvNL7rWlVXPOPHa6PgwU-QtACVRw4TuHd8EN3kioKtm45UFQEjQ/s928/heat%20waves%20EPA%202021.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="928" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSpfOIKSS92fQ4gXQMn0RkE5yDPHpeHYnsvlCDcin3URy2xkJJcrn6KwaLDrOHTgWg-5Ev4Jzyb5z0RATw0G6-jxEhMCdFsy4SHKI6J4hoVk1d-C198Abtt0MZVtYXUMEQQjwCn2eTvNL7rWlVXPOPHa6PgwU-QtACVRw4TuHd8EN3kioKtm45UFQEjQ/w400-h243/heat%20waves%20EPA%202021.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Because weather causes temperatures to vary by several degrees just within a city's limits, a record high temperature may be observed in one city but not its neighboring cities. So, examining record high temperatures for the whole state is much more informative about how the global climate is changing. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">California's record high was 134F measured on July 10, 1913. It is also the record high for the world. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj196VrGd73rJmnlyH7cuggRautKuTZ-rbLe-4mXBfdglm5IMuO9zYE5HfAtVkmfK1sGpuS4A4sqP_e9S5Y-jkh4TkpEA38DCA7b5PJq3swk5QGXuMKji1kYGCiNvxIl2mzWqamOMbFJj3F5m4nUD0Q8fcHO0g6N780zBXvcS1Jd6bI803_gv4Pdy2RiQ/s1874/RECORD%20STATE%20TEMPERATURE.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1874" data-original-width="1567" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj196VrGd73rJmnlyH7cuggRautKuTZ-rbLe-4mXBfdglm5IMuO9zYE5HfAtVkmfK1sGpuS4A4sqP_e9S5Y-jkh4TkpEA38DCA7b5PJq3swk5QGXuMKji1kYGCiNvxIl2mzWqamOMbFJj3F5m4nUD0Q8fcHO0g6N780zBXvcS1Jd6bI803_gv4Pdy2RiQ/w536-h640/RECORD%20STATE%20TEMPERATURE.png" width="536" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Alarmists claim global warming will cause higher record temperatures. Yet despite being the USA’s warmest state, Florida’s record high is only 108F and set in 1931. The highest record temperatures are usually a function of dryness and atmospheric circulation patterns. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">For example, much further north, states like Montana and North Dakota experienced much higher record temperatures of 117F and 120F, which were set in 1937 and 1936 respectively. Those higher temperatures in northern states are a function of the migrating jet stream's ridges that produce dry heat domes.
Despite a period of much lower greenhouse gas emissions, 31 of the lower 48 states set their record high temperatures before 1940. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaBVlJrxxQyF6rTVsFY6Tx1OWaZbH47p087YTcCFpENvo-_RvHhx10CLorBkoSjdJK4gleTDqdJqRk9H4s2T6qEv08Y71HuebbeCk7Q-T___tfWoeXOX4Mp0XXyprODhimgHQKc89gyWlCZcB0u5r5i9nDlcLNeza3l3327Q5ir1sernf5efkSue9e-w/s792/URBAN%20HEAT%20ISLAND.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="792" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaBVlJrxxQyF6rTVsFY6Tx1OWaZbH47p087YTcCFpENvo-_RvHhx10CLorBkoSjdJK4gleTDqdJqRk9H4s2T6qEv08Y71HuebbeCk7Q-T___tfWoeXOX4Mp0XXyprODhimgHQKc89gyWlCZcB0u5r5i9nDlcLNeza3l3327Q5ir1sernf5efkSue9e-w/w640-h228/URBAN%20HEAT%20ISLAND.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Cities amplify natural heating by reducing vegetation and drying out the land and rapidly shunting rainfall into sewer systems. Since 1950, the world's population increased by about 5 billion people. Many moved into flood plains, reclaiming wetlands, and expanding urban heat islands. People moving from the country to the city can experience a 5F to 6F increase in average temperature. Making urban populations more vulnerable to fearmongering about a warming climate crisis. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">California's state climatologist published a study correlating each county's population with temperature change. Counties with over a million people experienced a rising temperature trend. While counties with under 100,000 experienced no trend, just the natural oscillations expected from El Nino/La Nina cycles. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNhFMwHxLUgv_bX7_pnUOB2EnPKfrcseoLilJ5Hezv9DXTtFQ9Vg5K-fWCWrcYCBy67wnX5ZQvs5EvZQHuaxn9HYZdlFMTxCVDFnhNP2q5gP95fkVL2ViKysJgY9XOevgxoTXGq6aRJ5PSq8XJLro2fay-joG40iw9gGq8H_TivVBcpd2rAz_XgbYIdg/s4331/GOODRIDGE%20AND%20KARL%20STUDIES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1980" data-original-width="4331" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNhFMwHxLUgv_bX7_pnUOB2EnPKfrcseoLilJ5Hezv9DXTtFQ9Vg5K-fWCWrcYCBy67wnX5ZQvs5EvZQHuaxn9HYZdlFMTxCVDFnhNP2q5gP95fkVL2ViKysJgY9XOevgxoTXGq6aRJ5PSq8XJLro2fay-joG40iw9gGq8H_TivVBcpd2rAz_XgbYIdg/w640-h292/GOODRIDGE%20AND%20KARL%20STUDIES.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">NOAA's former director of the National Centers for Environmental Information published a 1996 study correlating temperatures with a city's population</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">For example, a city of 200,000 will increase weather station minimum temperatures by 0.87C (1.5F) compared to towns with only 2,000 people. Despite small drops in maximum temperatures, the rising minimum increased the average temperature by 0.75F, which gives the misleading impression that we are overheating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The best solution for urban populations is to increase urban greenery and moisture. Reducing fossil fuels will never reduce oppressive urban heat island effects. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnzwkjWdCochGhDdCubxsB53O1VhtDSgZBU6aFSJota5l4VzDyIOC2-yIZAHNxW9Qap12IhQleG5wevOnG_TBeyXM0U25ks_RIRynhFf6dRvbKUmnHGYFwEArU3XBaZNHxJg2b3Y8J0XG9WPbSnFKUjR-SMxZlfoiUJgdJTYGX1OVHI1gFkcQi36qa0g/s4326/URBAN%20%20GREENEY.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1595" data-original-width="4326" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnzwkjWdCochGhDdCubxsB53O1VhtDSgZBU6aFSJota5l4VzDyIOC2-yIZAHNxW9Qap12IhQleG5wevOnG_TBeyXM0U25ks_RIRynhFf6dRvbKUmnHGYFwEArU3XBaZNHxJg2b3Y8J0XG9WPbSnFKUjR-SMxZlfoiUJgdJTYGX1OVHI1gFkcQi36qa0g/w640-h237/URBAN%20%20GREENEY.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">To add to the climate complexities, despite a homogenous blanket of increasing carbon dioxide, 34% of all the American weather stations with 70 + years of data have experienced cooling trends (colored blue). Cooling trends adjacent to neighboring warming trends suggest landscape differences that cause such opposite temperature trends. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The heavily populated regions of the east and west coasts show very few stations with cooling trends, just as urban heat islands would predict.
In contrast, climate scientists designate the southeastern USA as a "warming hole" because cooling trends overwhelmingly dominate. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizFmRYWKNgA-yqHpDzmp7qRdKSW3HRuzlqb-6j1VW5CwEe_8TgStSSGGkLgND003oIzX2l6xVxRfuL594H32-GYH8khMTubUu72ENVA4hJCYMWbPk8qsjToifhJUMuOXSkyUCfpsaR1d6w7NabkwDUvOKSxTh8Je6VQbXoEdyolx2UyIvifj3b2ReJjA/s3455/WICKHAM%20WARMING%20HOLE.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1938" data-original-width="3455" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizFmRYWKNgA-yqHpDzmp7qRdKSW3HRuzlqb-6j1VW5CwEe_8TgStSSGGkLgND003oIzX2l6xVxRfuL594H32-GYH8khMTubUu72ENVA4hJCYMWbPk8qsjToifhJUMuOXSkyUCfpsaR1d6w7NabkwDUvOKSxTh8Je6VQbXoEdyolx2UyIvifj3b2ReJjA/w640-h358/WICKHAM%20WARMING%20HOLE.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It's true, if you average all the weather stations, the average American temperature is warming. But such averaging mis-guides policy. Remedies to stop warming can never benefit regions that have been cooling. More likely, such policies will worsen the negative impacts of colder temperatures on human health and agriculture. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Using global averages totally misleads analyses of natural weather tragedies.
For instance, politicians told us that the 2022 flooding in Kentucky (located in red circle) was intensified by global warming. Alarmist scientists inappropriately used the irrelevant factoid that warmer air can hold more moisture, so they could blame fossil fuel burning for amplifying the floods. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But it is dishonest, not scientific, to apply that factoid to a region experiencing a cooling trend. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Kentucky's location and topography make it prone to flooding. Steep slopes concentrate rainfall, flooding valley’s where people have unwisely built in natural flood plains. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Five of Louisville, Kentucky’s 10 worst floods happened before 1950. The worse flood was January 1937. Furthermore, nearly all the worse floods happened during the coldest months, when science tells us the atmosphere holds the least moisture. Alarmists ignore the fact that when moist air collides with colder air, it is the cold that forces more rain. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY2duhxG5fNt23Pio1qbfp0k_HOUoERQ5V7I0l-IgeFKdERScIfKTEGafqcbqgDnhN12noPOe863j_vrfO_ICvX0nRuSnd-AqDXiEHsxks-aH8ak5793doMgHhcYLikb-3n2s2iGfbAp74Ro-ftPJ4cjU5esWYnTD9OZcdUmpcyiI7ErOGrw6ODhGnXw/s1943/WORSE%20KENTUCKY%20FLOODS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1943" data-original-width="1934" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgY2duhxG5fNt23Pio1qbfp0k_HOUoERQ5V7I0l-IgeFKdERScIfKTEGafqcbqgDnhN12noPOe863j_vrfO_ICvX0nRuSnd-AqDXiEHsxks-aH8ak5793doMgHhcYLikb-3n2s2iGfbAp74Ro-ftPJ4cjU5esWYnTD9OZcdUmpcyiI7ErOGrw6ODhGnXw/w399-h400/WORSE%20KENTUCKY%20FLOODS.png" width="399" /></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhviV0_YXXTZvC8TgRM8mZugu3ABwxPCSbRA8Pp0Z8LDheT0ulQw-0E3rZcIgEj5ymcrzrKcHo1IjNzFBdHPUWd-wN2LAc00R6BFY0PjTDlXW9xB0WF0xH8eyynvPH3P37vZkPSLaoMEJrxUOdnffcFQcRd_nk6m72gce_7ltxWnwe7q248yfhggq0flw/s1010/BIDEN%20FLOODS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="1010" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhviV0_YXXTZvC8TgRM8mZugu3ABwxPCSbRA8Pp0Z8LDheT0ulQw-0E3rZcIgEj5ymcrzrKcHo1IjNzFBdHPUWd-wN2LAc00R6BFY0PjTDlXW9xB0WF0xH8eyynvPH3P37vZkPSLaoMEJrxUOdnffcFQcRd_nk6m72gce_7ltxWnwe7q248yfhggq0flw/w400-h336/BIDEN%20FLOODS.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Still, to push a climate crisis agenda, President Biden, not known for his scientific prowess, blamed global warming for intensifying Kentucky’s flooding as did NPR, which now more commonly is called "national propaganda radio" for its biased reporting. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Recent California wildfires are dishonestly blamed on dryness attributed to global warming. But recent dryness is the result of another natural, sea-saw climate.
La Ninas increase droughts in California but increase the monsoons and floods in Asia. Since 1999 the Pacific Ocean has primarily been in a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation which makes La Ninas more common. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYGMO5uYtbCb_UHcHNT1BlYhde5oG2KS-c9f-QWIvDj-7fVEse6olYlo7dzpxPaC9uWHd_l06JmzxksfGscgnCysvBkHnaMNbcRM8BREejFfvMZC9KCGo47j1UZnQpWV7x-w48qjPL0hs38mOPtBq5rKEt_7H0Eeg-qHvku88vj1ipcO5CGzjwg7PFoQ/s3245/EL%20NINO%20LA%20NINA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2044" data-original-width="3245" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYGMO5uYtbCb_UHcHNT1BlYhde5oG2KS-c9f-QWIvDj-7fVEse6olYlo7dzpxPaC9uWHd_l06JmzxksfGscgnCysvBkHnaMNbcRM8BREejFfvMZC9KCGo47j1UZnQpWV7x-w48qjPL0hs38mOPtBq5rKEt_7H0Eeg-qHvku88vj1ipcO5CGzjwg7PFoQ/w640-h404/EL%20NINO%20LA%20NINA.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast El Ninos amplify flood risks in California but droughts in southeast Asia. During a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation there are more El Ninos, and it appears that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will soon revert to a more El Nino like condition suggesting a coming reversal of California dryness. El Nino-like conditions frequently occurred during the Little Ice Age turning California’s Central Valley into a swamp land. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Instrumental data detect no trend in droughts across the USA. The most extreme dryness is concentrated in the 1930s contributing to the worst heatwaves. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Studies of California’s tree ring response to droughts find no trends in California. Severe drought, worse than 2014, have occurred about 4 times a century since 1300 AD. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAX9PoAheO5WTO7TyQda0m4JfxWI92fE1y7HzpaoExGVQiYqhfZ85PwIQCCX1QKCv_Jt-Ze27QA3o0WzFgBfMh2OBrkAXl5DlHNCuZJdG8o8uLOUzsxRUQgJa78JqoZZhPGwGqjbbQkdLN5QQenkGlcGbMurdrzGCY-fRY6YyIe3G5N78HdqvLnUYIyg/s3973/USA%20AND%20CALIFORNIA%20DROUGHT%20TREND.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2195" data-original-width="3973" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAX9PoAheO5WTO7TyQda0m4JfxWI92fE1y7HzpaoExGVQiYqhfZ85PwIQCCX1QKCv_Jt-Ze27QA3o0WzFgBfMh2OBrkAXl5DlHNCuZJdG8o8uLOUzsxRUQgJa78JqoZZhPGwGqjbbQkdLN5QQenkGlcGbMurdrzGCY-fRY6YyIe3G5N78HdqvLnUYIyg/w640-h354/USA%20AND%20CALIFORNIA%20DROUGHT%20TREND.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It is more akin to criminal misinformation than science to suggest recent wildfires in California are due to CO2 warming and drying. In their attempt to scare the public, click bait media, politicians, and scientists with no integrity, focus public attention on trends starting in the 1970s when fire suppression policies were ending. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMnbm_NGVRBIb17Y3_k5IpiZrWnTK_RSNOUzXFlx56yRBkO5nCF1_rSaYqSE2AaH1WiJ6mkORCcMkVT4WYpN3VSupL7jdXxmDG8uK_07BkBBwHHh7U2t07bowienygqn5NEBxtRSmKJKt4VZZVVUSw2GhfcyVxNULoKwLflaE0AjgXI0xWJToAuY01Vg/s3080/FIRE%20TRENDS%20SINCE%201970.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2094" data-original-width="3080" height="435" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMnbm_NGVRBIb17Y3_k5IpiZrWnTK_RSNOUzXFlx56yRBkO5nCF1_rSaYqSE2AaH1WiJ6mkORCcMkVT4WYpN3VSupL7jdXxmDG8uK_07BkBBwHHh7U2t07bowienygqn5NEBxtRSmKJKt4VZZVVUSw2GhfcyVxNULoKwLflaE0AjgXI0xWJToAuY01Vg/w640-h435/FIRE%20TRENDS%20SINCE%201970.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, more honest scientist seeking connections between climate and wildfires understand they must examine fire frequencies and area burnt over the past centuries. In Oregon fire experts determined fires were much more frequent and burnt more area in the early 1900s before fire suppression policies were enacted. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-yUueKKp9orfVfkm1uHdWqucSNE-a1DxKcUIpvtUzthiWtXxkdB0VZIsYxkGsXjzHjzh0b3V0kjAPH2Q0v0mM5awhoZw6F_SkOBV5L27znuOGjBstC-I-K98bZmGxzAUI9sAvqd2UGpB3rE03HjqKhJHXwUBrV611BhogV0aif-HgUz6WRkGjYyrHNQ/s1365/oregon%20fire%20cropped.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="1365" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-yUueKKp9orfVfkm1uHdWqucSNE-a1DxKcUIpvtUzthiWtXxkdB0VZIsYxkGsXjzHjzh0b3V0kjAPH2Q0v0mM5awhoZw6F_SkOBV5L27znuOGjBstC-I-K98bZmGxzAUI9sAvqd2UGpB3rE03HjqKhJHXwUBrV611BhogV0aif-HgUz6WRkGjYyrHNQ/w640-h228/oregon%20fire%20cropped.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Similarly, researcher found that fires were far more common during the cooler Little Ice Age throughout the American southwest. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitC94GURBHAM3GYbXBFqqwaeJzccvj7BfLFWTZOnqr6rWMc-CSA7fA8MBadqCiuZAUQ99tArx8pqJv2LcQAk_uKD7JzLZrlaBU1pglVEc13liznpRcvYfst02MClvDo7OwcIIgDlmPIQf5S1g-oFdWt89n1df88PJtgLBkxDgM-EZDITTMc0CzWX1lXA/s2415/Swetnam%20199s%20fire%20frequency.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="971" data-original-width="2415" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitC94GURBHAM3GYbXBFqqwaeJzccvj7BfLFWTZOnqr6rWMc-CSA7fA8MBadqCiuZAUQ99tArx8pqJv2LcQAk_uKD7JzLZrlaBU1pglVEc13liznpRcvYfst02MClvDo7OwcIIgDlmPIQf5S1g-oFdWt89n1df88PJtgLBkxDgM-EZDITTMc0CzWX1lXA/w640-h258/Swetnam%20199s%20fire%20frequency.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, the public is easily duped when they do not understand the basics of wildfires. For instance, most people do not know what is meant by 1-hour fuels.
Experts always consider the amount of one-hour fuels when determining fire danger.
Consider that to start a campfire, people must first use paper or fine dead twigs, then add slightly larger kindling before adding larger logs. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">One-hour fuels have a very thin diameter like paper and can dry out in just a matter of hours. One-hour fuels are the key ingredient for wildfires ignitions and become highly flammable on any sunny day no matter how the climate changes.
In America’s northeast, public service warnings constantly tell people that dead grasses and leaf litter can impose a serious fire danger even if dead grass was just recently exposed from melting snow, or a yesterday’s rainfall. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja9DUGaDVvsHRhc5JS6ByPJ0-4EVPbu47FkV2IJvX6jC6xpm6TEjbISVNk49rsA7TkQJANzMiGGQlllajNRuap11XERKv5aePRSrW4yo7YcHhh67CI-8FoFGoOPbwRTgslxG5hftRoDFNVq50MTMhOdh_hyVMV5cWr4qLY6u9q_xYWFhWFkRLdIHbJ_A/s4106/ONE%20HOUR%20FIRE%20LINGO.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2241" data-original-width="4106" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja9DUGaDVvsHRhc5JS6ByPJ0-4EVPbu47FkV2IJvX6jC6xpm6TEjbISVNk49rsA7TkQJANzMiGGQlllajNRuap11XERKv5aePRSrW4yo7YcHhh67CI-8FoFGoOPbwRTgslxG5hftRoDFNVq50MTMhOdh_hyVMV5cWr4qLY6u9q_xYWFhWFkRLdIHbJ_A/w640-h350/ONE%20HOUR%20FIRE%20LINGO.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">No matter how the concentrations of CO2 change, it will not affect wildfires. Both preventing catastrophic forest fires and protecting your home require maintaining a mosaic of habitat and defensible spaces. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Large areas of shrubs and grassy ground cover and leaf litter that contain abundant 1- and 10-hour fuels, can carry fires to your house and across widespread forest habitats. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Minimizing ground fuels, maintaining well-spaced shrubs, and eliminating undergrowth that can carry fire into the treetops promoting far reaching embers helps maintain a home's defensible space as well as a resilient forest. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMTPU7CMW63S6e1dDIf2zeokc1rJ8LnrDrjUwE8MfTDV7a-wGv9xMCCJBtskFj3_r1y-MahyI6KHBDj7CGBaqjbRyKlmCrmdnrZBEZVCAPi32umkEzcgtf0wRTwIXgMxOQppMOzmMZiiBF1s1Gtx2eE6pzVSbYWZT7NNXhzak9o-5Qmq6gYhe8Zr4vIw/s4367/FIRE%20PRONE%20DEFENSIBLEE%20SPACEE.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1297" data-original-width="4367" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMTPU7CMW63S6e1dDIf2zeokc1rJ8LnrDrjUwE8MfTDV7a-wGv9xMCCJBtskFj3_r1y-MahyI6KHBDj7CGBaqjbRyKlmCrmdnrZBEZVCAPi32umkEzcgtf0wRTwIXgMxOQppMOzmMZiiBF1s1Gtx2eE6pzVSbYWZT7NNXhzak9o-5Qmq6gYhe8Zr4vIw/w640-h190/FIRE%20PRONE%20DEFENSIBLEE%20SPACEE.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In neighborhoods with closely spaced houses, the whole neighborhood requires a defensible boundary that eliminates ground fuels. Once one house catches fire, it radiates enough heat to readily burn neighboring homes. I observed rows of homes demolished in the Paradise fire, yet the leaves and needles of the surrounding trees were unaffected. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVLvChXvrKpveIUgcBuj2SWTdl26d-If9gWK1L04bqcNYPh13ICH6cdM3VbmRuKFD2PAai3hWiaYvxTBBjiE1IE9Gxp1hu7YrBzvEr0NzT8-MREyA7nebQAan4CvBFLgvEJmku1tiPU0uf3GG6skaxwmVaOcsVIF0OGh-cPwwgwpj6QF6xWWfP9Z1eLg/s1588/PARADISE%20FIRE%20NEEIGHBORHOOD.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="1588" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVLvChXvrKpveIUgcBuj2SWTdl26d-If9gWK1L04bqcNYPh13ICH6cdM3VbmRuKFD2PAai3hWiaYvxTBBjiE1IE9Gxp1hu7YrBzvEr0NzT8-MREyA7nebQAan4CvBFLgvEJmku1tiPU0uf3GG6skaxwmVaOcsVIF0OGh-cPwwgwpj6QF6xWWfP9Z1eLg/w640-h306/PARADISE%20FIRE%20NEEIGHBORHOOD.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Still the fear mongering media blamed climate change. However, like all northern California, maximum temperatures were higher in the 1930s. Climate change had no impact on a fire caused by a faulty electrical grid and the unnatural accumulation of ground fuels due to decades of fire suppression. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2tdKvC9VGeBlqldYfhMakCNCOkJOvOnUfLTm1KAuhEVym_ZecXqEbLyNSv_SC6B-Ecw_P-u-gvzAJKXjRyxlOyn9i_W47HcUFzzPm_PlemntZvTTFORwFP5J4N9n1HcPhcH06hTDP6JEN3M8keyM2xW_0ENcXMcUXsJA5rfi-nMSLpLT3BQCv95DrVA/s1327/Chico-Paradise%20Mar-Oct%20max%20temp.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="847" data-original-width="1327" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2tdKvC9VGeBlqldYfhMakCNCOkJOvOnUfLTm1KAuhEVym_ZecXqEbLyNSv_SC6B-Ecw_P-u-gvzAJKXjRyxlOyn9i_W47HcUFzzPm_PlemntZvTTFORwFP5J4N9n1HcPhcH06hTDP6JEN3M8keyM2xW_0ENcXMcUXsJA5rfi-nMSLpLT3BQCv95DrVA/w400-h255/Chico-Paradise%20Mar-Oct%20max%20temp.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">To see past all the media misinformation and build truly resilient environments we must embrace renowned scientist Thomas Huxley’s advice: </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><i>skepticism is the highest of duties blind faith the one unpardonable sin</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> For those who are i</span><span style="font-size: large;">nterested in the peer review papers from which the evidence from this presentation was gathered, just email me a specific request jsteele@sfsu.du and I’ll send you a pdf. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> Thank you</span></p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-48582015211830889692022-09-07T13:27:00.010-07:002022-09-07T17:25:56.677-07:00ARE PAKISTAN’S FLOODS YOUR FAULT AND YOU SHOULD PAY?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
ARE PAKISTAN’S FLOODS YOUR FAULT AND YOU SHOULD PAY?</span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">below is the transcript to the video at https://youtu.be/uMBY1-ceo6Y</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Today I want to separate the science of Pakistan’s devastating floods from the shamefully manipulative narratives by politicians and the media. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The worst is MSNBC’s attempt at public shaming by calling the catastrophe "climate racism”. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFB3URAKHRgBcSS6yhsF4GrIOpeoptiRMulNJLKh3_f7TPJqYeXkgDHReJ8exZ66HTfNtKblS4Y6D05sB_9kkmqY4dHfpE6er4Tf12-mxpvTs3HmWifHT-cKjsxJEJdn-2NIdrpik44dE1ZwDLdw42R6oTngNXd_ZX7pJ3FPmi6LEks1mgUT0xmCN2Q/s2048/pakistan%20climate%20racism.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="935" data-original-width="2048" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFB3URAKHRgBcSS6yhsF4GrIOpeoptiRMulNJLKh3_f7TPJqYeXkgDHReJ8exZ66HTfNtKblS4Y6D05sB_9kkmqY4dHfpE6er4Tf12-mxpvTs3HmWifHT-cKjsxJEJdn-2NIdrpik44dE1ZwDLdw42R6oTngNXd_ZX7pJ3FPmi6LEks1mgUT0xmCN2Q/w640-h292/pakistan%20climate%20racism.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> Pakistan’s government is in dire need of world bank bailouts due to past corruption and ineptitude. So it is not surprising that Foreign Minister Zardari blames a climate crisis and scape goats industrialized countries, stating “the citizens of Pakistan, are paying the price in their lives, their livelihoods for the industrialization of rich countries that has resulted in this climate change"</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast, honest scientists have stated what has been known for centuries, and I quote "the rivers of the Himalaya are susceptible to extreme floods on many timescales and future floods can be expected with or without significant human-induced climate change.” </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMrRhKKIjemoUFv2dE2QdEFOHdVcLYrHRjrSLKX0TWnG3dXi_fdCdEeYW2vGCis5h41Pa3VVqmLu8pIDLBA5GJst2MURjcHCNR51qKzlPIy7Va9ACNILWDtLsEf9EpDTFogWI4jKSZ22wSS4Zrqia_KfvOVdyZgGTxy4y650xzl-ta-DayvLAcqY7I_Q/s1491/FLOODED%20PAKISTAN%20CITY.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="883" data-original-width="1491" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMrRhKKIjemoUFv2dE2QdEFOHdVcLYrHRjrSLKX0TWnG3dXi_fdCdEeYW2vGCis5h41Pa3VVqmLu8pIDLBA5GJst2MURjcHCNR51qKzlPIy7Va9ACNILWDtLsEf9EpDTFogWI4jKSZ22wSS4Zrqia_KfvOVdyZgGTxy4y650xzl-ta-DayvLAcqY7I_Q/w640-h380/FLOODED%20PAKISTAN%20CITY.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">First consider that Pakistanis have blamed their own government for many of their problems. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Critical of flood control policies, the adviser to chief minister of Baluchistan, Kaisar Bengali, reported: “dams create floods, dams don’t prevent floods…in 2010 the water that passed through the Indus was less than in 1976. Yet, it created more flooding because the river had risen 6-7 feet” due to the accumulation of sediments behind the dams. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Many accuse that flood control projects have favored wealthy landowners who benefit from developing certain floodplains while diverting waters to the floodplains inhabited by the nation’s poorest. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Environmental sciences professor Shafiqur Rehman said, “first we build dykes and spend millions of rupees on them & then we blow them up and drown people to save cities or other areas,” </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSpXl5PdKoBiO_Kzfw7d-tX8lQESeq82EbmtR1cleWX7Q4Xdk3R0A8_ft512io8AP6F33ojxpVUxR-hJlFr3sostF9D_LCYVon2WNzcQXrNI3p7gP7IXE69Jf6E8QJR2UPtBVX3Zd74DW6p--uzeIF_24YyrmG5-96olbGXP_BjqWH7rQMOCUWCQARVA/s477/PAKISTAN%20FLOOD%20KIDS%20IN%20BOAT.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="233" data-original-width="477" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSpXl5PdKoBiO_Kzfw7d-tX8lQESeq82EbmtR1cleWX7Q4Xdk3R0A8_ft512io8AP6F33ojxpVUxR-hJlFr3sostF9D_LCYVon2WNzcQXrNI3p7gP7IXE69Jf6E8QJR2UPtBVX3Zd74DW6p--uzeIF_24YyrmG5-96olbGXP_BjqWH7rQMOCUWCQARVA/w640-h312/PAKISTAN%20FLOOD%20KIDS%20IN%20BOAT.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And of course, there are widespread complaints about government corruption.
Hashim Nisar Hashmi, at Pakistan’s university of engineering and technology said, “if maintenance of flood embankments had been adequately maintained by provinces, major losses would have been averted” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Now consider that Pakistan’s unique location has made it vulnerable to natural swings of dramatic weather between major droughts and major floods long before rising CO2 has had any impact. Since 1850 Pakistan has experienced 7 major droughts and 6 major floods. And it is common local knowledge that summer monsoons always cause flooding in some rivers somewhere in Pakistan. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ2gzRDg538wW_avWW0B00IFdV0FYYxuc9eZ2JraeAtcP9ddUNgGkDb1usAvHWzayaP6MexWeNLEW1f56Exo6oai8rT43SE_4bDVyCpmom3s3p7lzOXdqKhtdt0gxJ509Vn8YS9yewU4RXQ71DGQAfxb2BXzAZ-wyOOp0j7wr26c3vUceHW1PDLlsF4Q/s3290/PAKISTAN%20%20FLOOD%20TRENDSS%20KHANDEKAR.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1457" data-original-width="3290" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ2gzRDg538wW_avWW0B00IFdV0FYYxuc9eZ2JraeAtcP9ddUNgGkDb1usAvHWzayaP6MexWeNLEW1f56Exo6oai8rT43SE_4bDVyCpmom3s3p7lzOXdqKhtdt0gxJ509Vn8YS9yewU4RXQ71DGQAfxb2BXzAZ-wyOOp0j7wr26c3vUceHW1PDLlsF4Q/w640-h284/PAKISTAN%20%20FLOOD%20TRENDSS%20KHANDEKAR.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The 2010 floods have been extremely well studied and those studies provide guidance in understanding the very similar 2022 floods. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As Khandekar (2010) published, “a rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña between spring and summer of 2010 appears to be the key element in triggering a vigorous monsoon of 2010 over the Indian subcontinent.” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Khandekar concluded, “the 2010 Pakistan floods, although seemingly unprecedented, were well within natural variability of the monsoonal climate over the Indian subcontinent.
I have suggested before, there is an urgent need for an improved understanding of the many complex features associated with the Indian/Asian monsoon system” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, to that end, this video intends to provide the public with an introduction to those complex dynamics driving Pakistan’s monsoon floods and droughts. The following information will provide the public with facts and a few critical thinking tools needed to decide if Pakistan’s floods were the result of your carbon-rich lifestyles, or just natural events long endured in Pakistan. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITOD0U52FC_Uud_2kEXJlZHviJKYz-WSYu95O-XXhhmaYM2ONDEhXZWRqxWtKDSeykX4IoPy4HVucGfDWt0NtZ79dh2Jl-_Q4f_hF-HvN8OolInVxeO0rFFalofHkNFo7NfK3tX1bukRcyQBn11rw0ADzXQi15d8ADKRKWuRQiLoomv0SR--XcTllmg/s1708/LA%20NINA%20BOB.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="1708" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhITOD0U52FC_Uud_2kEXJlZHviJKYz-WSYu95O-XXhhmaYM2ONDEhXZWRqxWtKDSeykX4IoPy4HVucGfDWt0NtZ79dh2Jl-_Q4f_hF-HvN8OolInVxeO0rFFalofHkNFo7NfK3tX1bukRcyQBn11rw0ADzXQi15d8ADKRKWuRQiLoomv0SR--XcTllmg/w640-h208/LA%20NINA%20BOB.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Indeed, natural La Nina / El Nino cycles have been demonstrated to contribute about 50% of monsoon variability. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During La Nina-like conditions the Bay of Bengal experiences heightened convection, and thus contributes greater quantities of water vapor to the region. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During El Nino conditions the center of convection migrates to the eastern pacific, thus reducing the water vapor that can be transported over India and Pakistan. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Additionally, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation makes La Nina-like conditions more frequent for 20 to 30 years, as has been the case since 1999. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, consider that Pakistan’s heavy flooding in both 2010 and in 2022 happened during La Nina years. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2slATb6dIPhlJsGtHoCtINsFhTZjW3Wh9gd7OiZN5sT_pik_bcdX_99zyApjGPrRSNQEVtxWPFCVFJmEQUJT9GhSlHjGN-GuNH-Li1v9Ojy2wptkXFc22N1XxSbjyLxShoyojEqFJcIOtj4cG-x7ad_x-jVQ4_nIP1HSULO50QPM5lRtkDV63KqnnDA/s1846/MOONSON%20PRECIP%20GADGIL%202018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="1846" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2slATb6dIPhlJsGtHoCtINsFhTZjW3Wh9gd7OiZN5sT_pik_bcdX_99zyApjGPrRSNQEVtxWPFCVFJmEQUJT9GhSlHjGN-GuNH-Li1v9Ojy2wptkXFc22N1XxSbjyLxShoyojEqFJcIOtj4cG-x7ad_x-jVQ4_nIP1HSULO50QPM5lRtkDV63KqnnDA/w640-h230/MOONSON%20PRECIP%20GADGIL%202018.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Also consider that, since 1880 there is no trend in excess rainfall or drought conditions over the greater Indian region. There has been no unusual increase in recent decades in expected excessive rains either from la Nina or due to rising CO2. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So how does science explain recent floods? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Climate alarmists always frame every weather event in terms of warming from added CO2. Alarmists throw out a simple factoid that warmer air holds more water vapor. Thus, it should follow that increased rainfall must be due to rising CO2 warming. But that dynamic is often totally irrelevant for most weather catastrophes. Just consider that the warmest deserts hold the least water vapor. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast most scientists understand there are many other factors affecting these complex weather events. Honest scientists will tell you that “increases in atmospheric water vapor content alone cannot explain changes in intense rain events due to rainfall's strong dependence on vertical motions” </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipFl3TNH1I3CtnbNhFRPTOVcnnmDO9fITguxFFH3RDZlF92mE2brDgbc53c3mKPSq8mYYmC0RT7Q9yBIvDVmPXQn8lXcv6ok92PjF3dlb0XXslws3YrOskbEiFa7I44q1mJ5jgRq9vsNc7wNpFrHQrq5OVSonK0Y3umJFlpSZ2JLiGl6Qdu8CPIci3uA/s950/ITCZ%20BASIC.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="950" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipFl3TNH1I3CtnbNhFRPTOVcnnmDO9fITguxFFH3RDZlF92mE2brDgbc53c3mKPSq8mYYmC0RT7Q9yBIvDVmPXQn8lXcv6ok92PjF3dlb0XXslws3YrOskbEiFa7I44q1mJ5jgRq9vsNc7wNpFrHQrq5OVSonK0Y3umJFlpSZ2JLiGl6Qdu8CPIci3uA/w640-h348/ITCZ%20BASIC.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So first consider that the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ, marks where moisture laden trade winds concentrate their water vapor while their convergence forces that air to rise, where it then cools, condenses, and precipitates. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Due to that dynamic, the world's narrow ITCZ band accounts for 32% of all global precipitation. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When the ITCZ follows the sun's seasonal path northward. It brings the wet season to India and Pakistan. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When the ITCZ retreats southward in the winter, they experience their dry season. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt_RTTuKPjZCBZjsSFdjfv-ywBujp3UQkOfrIIGFdInE2u_0bqWxqFUaIAReeJlwZNbiXcjjmx1l4mSCI-tvE71wP2y_b5xTGnpTuZIk1WtHtjG0xzFGaIoaQmihHHA1QRGIu-iIvA8biZC_Vj4NWHaQZgZJW1ZnglVagDI3joveAXqfZlhNdggxN8Gw/s800/ITCZ%20INDIAN%20WET%20SEASON.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="742" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt_RTTuKPjZCBZjsSFdjfv-ywBujp3UQkOfrIIGFdInE2u_0bqWxqFUaIAReeJlwZNbiXcjjmx1l4mSCI-tvE71wP2y_b5xTGnpTuZIk1WtHtjG0xzFGaIoaQmihHHA1QRGIu-iIvA8biZC_Vj4NWHaQZgZJW1ZnglVagDI3joveAXqfZlhNdggxN8Gw/w594-h640/ITCZ%20INDIAN%20WET%20SEASON.png" width="594" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Research has also demonstrated that due to changes in the earth's orbit and axis tilt, the earth has been steadily cooling for the past 8 thousand years and accordingly the ITCZ’s northern limits have progressively moved towards the equator. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the Holocene Optimum when the ITCZ was furthest north, monsoon intensity was the greatest in 100 thousand years. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu6V_s3JDqO0RgwGh4mUSjlsfyu9tzLJXSerRIfS1xevoM33AM9sVa8o2VFgTuTE6_wKhXhb8F3BNdmKMdC8lxR5JFoZyyJf9WVzkFjV3QfnCv5doRA1EGsOKwtBzZHb8iDsm4P5gLHK21rA9TB1W1Q67NEcZ5HpavFzvyPyYkc_yCHflKSSsy2yVw0Q/s2213/HOLOCENE%20AND%20ITCZ%20PEAK%20MONSOON%20SCHNEIDER%202014.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1544" data-original-width="2213" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu6V_s3JDqO0RgwGh4mUSjlsfyu9tzLJXSerRIfS1xevoM33AM9sVa8o2VFgTuTE6_wKhXhb8F3BNdmKMdC8lxR5JFoZyyJf9WVzkFjV3QfnCv5doRA1EGsOKwtBzZHb8iDsm4P5gLHK21rA9TB1W1Q67NEcZ5HpavFzvyPyYkc_yCHflKSSsy2yVw0Q/w640-h446/HOLOCENE%20AND%20ITCZ%20PEAK%20MONSOON%20SCHNEIDER%202014.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The furthest southward migration of the ITCZ culminated during the little ice age, reducing monsoon rainfall and coinciding with devastating droughts across southern Asia. A combination of an extreme southward ITCZ and El Nino-like conditions produced the drought and great famine of 1876-1878 resulting in over 7 million deaths, with India being hit hardest. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi20D4grrQ3rP7gVmwxg_wTHXvDnRg3GL7hGHGAXdRSwbbaI_D6tQxiKmUhCCmRxGH_xAJ9ElfvX2bOZnOviFWyvRUKw8H-MnIQL47NDs6d_aVXzjQwJiIh8TRwunwNIl7ejAJy8Kgkn3AZFJ6kZ-rWmBpQTgCKxL3CGyroduxr2VoAP0h9bimCyE_gsQ/s1572/1876%20GREEAT%20FAMINE.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1572" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi20D4grrQ3rP7gVmwxg_wTHXvDnRg3GL7hGHGAXdRSwbbaI_D6tQxiKmUhCCmRxGH_xAJ9ElfvX2bOZnOviFWyvRUKw8H-MnIQL47NDs6d_aVXzjQwJiIh8TRwunwNIl7ejAJy8Kgkn3AZFJ6kZ-rWmBpQTgCKxL3CGyroduxr2VoAP0h9bimCyE_gsQ/w640-h524/1876%20GREEAT%20FAMINE.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Rainfall does not fall equally across the Indian sub-continent. The so-called monsoon zone" parallels the ITCZ’s current orientation. But the winds lose moisture as they travel westward from the Bay of Bengal and move inland towards Pakistan. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLV4r5DG_NP0y5MrXPPNdIhPq9jLKDO-p2qjBCQyqOIn_rjfVjPfn_xU6dkzEOkC9GN4E7NH2Uf2G2ChM2hwtxHNFbiWbmfnUOJ1CQwphtwSOzOQ0JqAx3F1neEdBDnUjzqU6zAA-RbwIcIGQAGBf3jORS6b5aGtBi9AybV0hrAFLSGhBey5JssdTDGQ/s2071/MONSOON%20RAINFALL%20VARIATION%20%20RAJEEVAN.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2025" data-original-width="2071" height="626" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLV4r5DG_NP0y5MrXPPNdIhPq9jLKDO-p2qjBCQyqOIn_rjfVjPfn_xU6dkzEOkC9GN4E7NH2Uf2G2ChM2hwtxHNFbiWbmfnUOJ1CQwphtwSOzOQ0JqAx3F1neEdBDnUjzqU6zAA-RbwIcIGQAGBf3jORS6b5aGtBi9AybV0hrAFLSGhBey5JssdTDGQ/w640-h626/MONSOON%20RAINFALL%20VARIATION%20%20RAJEEVAN.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Winds over the Arabian Sea from the southwest typically bring the greatest rainfall to India’s west coast and sometimes into Pakistan when the winds curl to the northwest.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As reported by Kumar (2010) rainfall over India does not provide any evidence of a global warming trend. 3 major regions of India have declining rainfall while 2 others have increasing trends. And when all the sub-divisions of those regions are examined, the majority show neither increasing nor decreasing trends. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOUd66Nn8BRcCez7Z509TeJwxWne4g0ioo4S_iDh3tTkurQfelJ0fN8n-hkNhkrWme7P1N3rK4Kbok55-7cd6-6THnOnRPzfR6bAlovzIDfxEUHcnqNADKQFL0_uTjjU-en_vlp6EqKakTK4qjYRptPU0cwjTAIbbLGX7HHr8veKQe0l4t95XB1BtjJA/s888/INDIA%20VARIED%20RAINFALL%20TRENDS%20KUMAR%202010.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="888" height="530" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOUd66Nn8BRcCez7Z509TeJwxWne4g0ioo4S_iDh3tTkurQfelJ0fN8n-hkNhkrWme7P1N3rK4Kbok55-7cd6-6THnOnRPzfR6bAlovzIDfxEUHcnqNADKQFL0_uTjjU-en_vlp6EqKakTK4qjYRptPU0cwjTAIbbLGX7HHr8veKQe0l4t95XB1BtjJA/w640-h530/INDIA%20VARIED%20RAINFALL%20TRENDS%20KUMAR%202010.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To be fair, CO2 global warming is not expected to increase rainfall everywhere or evenly, simply due to natural variations. This is especially true for the Indian Pakistan regions that experience huge natural extremes. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Himalayan ranges will always prevent monsoon moisture from reaching further north. So heavy rains fall on the Himalayan southside, while north of the Himalaya is extremely dry. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguofgpadydhZoxzmw919kM8-SJZTQ3B1i9XeB9n-nDsfuSFBxlYzgDXULsWL0QD9-t5r0RIzjBjnDjL9oVK_K5_8I-tsI3WjhxCdCDrkdrg5BghWyvUCLFrNIJ_aRsXrENWDcssAgDeRdC7gKgiFMm9utMZE5nX324zrVy2Bt2Sg5rJo9Lncb3VwoNXQ/s2016/NIDIA%20PAKISTAN%20EXTREMES.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1760" data-original-width="2016" height="558" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguofgpadydhZoxzmw919kM8-SJZTQ3B1i9XeB9n-nDsfuSFBxlYzgDXULsWL0QD9-t5r0RIzjBjnDjL9oVK_K5_8I-tsI3WjhxCdCDrkdrg5BghWyvUCLFrNIJ_aRsXrENWDcssAgDeRdC7gKgiFMm9utMZE5nX324zrVy2Bt2Sg5rJo9Lncb3VwoNXQ/w640-h558/NIDIA%20PAKISTAN%20EXTREMES.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Because the southwest winds bring abundant moisture across Bangladesh and into northeast India, and the intercepting mountains provide the needed vertical uplift, Mawsynram is the wettest city in the world, marked here by the red triangle, Mawsynram receives about 467 inches of rain per year, 20 times India’s average. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast, the southwest winds only bring rain to Pakistan occasionally.
The lack of moisture transport into Pakistan has created 5 different desert regions.
And while beneath the tropic of cancer, clear skies and the sun's direct rays produce Asia’s hottest recorded temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Jacobabad in Pakistan’s southern Sindh region, marked by a red triangle, experiences temperatures as high as 125°F (51.7 °C) nearly every year during the month of May before the monsoons start to cool the region.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The nearby archeological site of Moen-Jo-Daro holds Asia’s record for highest recorded temperature with 128.3°F (53.5°C)). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Climate crisis barkers commonly suggest rising CO2 will simply make this natural variability worse. Often arguing wet regions will get wetter and dry regions drier.
But Pakistan’s floods contradicted such climate crisis claims. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLdUhqMczMmV009CM3FvxW3_tf8jK76sLtB5xkFhXefjdhh1ilZPJy_F3Y0RagwnIvolhSFr8wkZ0cIfQ5g83SFoojWEgVPS3-zwYjkt97G69hmdR7z8dWMI54fuiDcpKyf_K-tRoNXoH--qzJ2TY5Gflt48c5dCxiD699dK2KptkxGvBE5OQPrs4fxg/s2030/JULY%202022%20INDIA%20WET%20GOT%20DRIER.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2030" data-original-width="1796" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLdUhqMczMmV009CM3FvxW3_tf8jK76sLtB5xkFhXefjdhh1ilZPJy_F3Y0RagwnIvolhSFr8wkZ0cIfQ5g83SFoojWEgVPS3-zwYjkt97G69hmdR7z8dWMI54fuiDcpKyf_K-tRoNXoH--qzJ2TY5Gflt48c5dCxiD699dK2KptkxGvBE5OQPrs4fxg/w566-h640/JULY%202022%20INDIA%20WET%20GOT%20DRIER.png" width="566" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In summer 2022, the wettest regions of northeast India were the driest, as illustrated by reds and yellow. There was no change in the green regions, but India’s west coast received excessive rains. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">That pattern suggests global warming did not add more water vapor to the atmosphere, but instead atmospheric circulation simply shifted moisture transport from eastern India into western India and Pakistan. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj31OIBf5p5x98jeD4Cof7Nhn5NhYyhiYXjJLIhtFX1nulFIxp_Dr3QPhwqhkEkvk45omrx-TU909lJzec-tl5WBGti5ah8JsrVdg3wQlnVCPmLBdfrTQiBZdwjU2dvuHRhtEWEUq1n_xBcdIUO4QPGZVFqmD0FnLheSeV7Ka3c2X7MWH6OwdCaJ6010g/s832/MOEN%20JO%20%20DARO.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="832" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj31OIBf5p5x98jeD4Cof7Nhn5NhYyhiYXjJLIhtFX1nulFIxp_Dr3QPhwqhkEkvk45omrx-TU909lJzec-tl5WBGti5ah8JsrVdg3wQlnVCPmLBdfrTQiBZdwjU2dvuHRhtEWEUq1n_xBcdIUO4QPGZVFqmD0FnLheSeV7Ka3c2X7MWH6OwdCaJ6010g/w640-h384/MOEN%20JO%20%20DARO.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In the heavily 2022 flooded Sindh region, the desert city of Moen-Jo-Daro is the site of Asia’s record highest temperature. It was first built about 5000 years ago. Then abandoned after being buried in mud from heavy flooding. Exemplifying the region's erratic extreme weather, archeologists believe Moen-Jo-Daro was reclaimed and then abandoned at least 6 times over the past 3 thousand years until finally being buried by mud for the last time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, the Sindh region's natural hot zone
also provides fodder for global warming fear mongering. Despite Jacobabad temperatures reaching 125°f (51.7 °c) most years, the uardian fear mongered that 51°c in 2022 was “record-breaking”. But that is a total falsehood if monthly or yearly records are being considered. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk9hqxnXcxTRu3pZ1fuOR0JqTi2JHxnOtkxg9ITAguOyyIkqSTiLFwrIk6jTksV-WrGn5zPvXI8NbnQIwpqXRWg3p7p_rXbo3kIBR045hmDSgqrUQK18qU7ZZvUVVuqP7s58m_qzFz6FcEEaw-4rQc7p41L5qi13p7uvlodl568-_rEfqxpXU_PiMrtw/s1084/DRY%20LINE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="1084" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjk9hqxnXcxTRu3pZ1fuOR0JqTi2JHxnOtkxg9ITAguOyyIkqSTiLFwrIk6jTksV-WrGn5zPvXI8NbnQIwpqXRWg3p7p_rXbo3kIBR045hmDSgqrUQK18qU7ZZvUVVuqP7s58m_qzFz6FcEEaw-4rQc7p41L5qi13p7uvlodl568-_rEfqxpXU_PiMrtw/w640-h298/DRY%20LINE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Scientists expect severe weather when they observe a weather pattern known as a dry line.
Frequent dry line formation in southern Pakistan and the Sindh region makes the region vulnerable to extreme thunderstorms and flooding whenever moisture transport from the Arabian sea increases. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When moist air from the Arabian sea moves northwestward and collides with denser dry air flowing eastward from Afghanistan and the Baluchistan highlands, a dry line forms and flooding can be expected. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0d23bHLe7NEntDSHGuEPJJ17CW_OMQ8FJprFsg3W2kNKCbVMDC95MnJoc4YR4dHh1-fr589poRjaXF-b5kLzjSS-I1jmVHUQ5DaHL7k1WyuRtHUoRxY6pIhdfZ5b0KfIycEL5YuKAXaOk1_33SlxfdbAhexcgnWvimuI9GqINfYTSw7HMORIV5Lg2Mg/s4290/PAKISTAN%202022%20RAINFALL.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2025" data-original-width="4290" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0d23bHLe7NEntDSHGuEPJJ17CW_OMQ8FJprFsg3W2kNKCbVMDC95MnJoc4YR4dHh1-fr589poRjaXF-b5kLzjSS-I1jmVHUQ5DaHL7k1WyuRtHUoRxY6pIhdfZ5b0KfIycEL5YuKAXaOk1_33SlxfdbAhexcgnWvimuI9GqINfYTSw7HMORIV5Lg2Mg/w640-h302/PAKISTAN%202022%20RAINFALL.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Pakistan's summer 2022 heavy rainfall was a regional event. Despite the low average rainfall (illustrated in orange) in Pakistan’s Sindh region, the region experienced a 500% increase in rainfall (illustrated in green). A similar increase was observed in the dry highlands of Baluchistan further west. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast, the normally high rainfall in the Himalayan region of Kashmir, was the same as it usually is. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV7a-14Io5_O-kM8N-hrhwk7ykHb0NRnLjaIqODVwrPrT2t5NEr389ii4j6XL6IoHwIy1pAlmeJiqHA7MdLJiylKj4uA8hk8XaKpgJfX6SP-ZbQ9JqYiZpgxx6OnJtjAzD76CaHoDa2K_iMKiwc4PYWX3uCIpMNkKN89fIrp8KW_6RWYVLAeMnBA-iHQ/s4280/PAKISTAN%20WATER%20VAPOR%20SOURCE.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1792" data-original-width="4280" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV7a-14Io5_O-kM8N-hrhwk7ykHb0NRnLjaIqODVwrPrT2t5NEr389ii4j6XL6IoHwIy1pAlmeJiqHA7MdLJiylKj4uA8hk8XaKpgJfX6SP-ZbQ9JqYiZpgxx6OnJtjAzD76CaHoDa2K_iMKiwc4PYWX3uCIpMNkKN89fIrp8KW_6RWYVLAeMnBA-iHQ/w640-h268/PAKISTAN%20WATER%20VAPOR%20SOURCE.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Observations of shifting atmospheric circulation have recorded that
More water vapor from Arabian sea (blue line) has been most recently transported into southern Pakistan while less water vapor is being transported from Bay of Bengal into northern Pakistan (green) </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Accordingly, it is southern Pakistan that is experiencing the worst flooding and infrastructure destruction (marked in brown) </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Still some climate alarmists argue that global warming is melting glaciers and increasing regional snow melt. They claim that melting is adding to the river flows and thus downstream flooding in the Sindh region. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj9oMwYNjKKUW1Cris4heXTmrCSPhfBTdF0-ga8MrCxFJo9PnK5faJvQ-3AJzERt5kRdQiK7CiTcFf0QUGq4A0Kh4uodBVP-G40ZMuwzZJoTkI0mGrPxiG8IJUhfC5HvENqOCgZrXwdnf0KN6S2H4BRfiE8DqvCHWyLNw17P_f1jhlalEOqgUXtiUBgg/s970/HIMALAYA%20HEADWATERS%20TO%20MAJOR%20RIVERS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="970" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj9oMwYNjKKUW1Cris4heXTmrCSPhfBTdF0-ga8MrCxFJo9PnK5faJvQ-3AJzERt5kRdQiK7CiTcFf0QUGq4A0Kh4uodBVP-G40ZMuwzZJoTkI0mGrPxiG8IJUhfC5HvENqOCgZrXwdnf0KN6S2H4BRfiE8DqvCHWyLNw17P_f1jhlalEOqgUXtiUBgg/w640-h352/HIMALAYA%20HEADWATERS%20TO%20MAJOR%20RIVERS.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To orient you, here we see the snowmelt from the Himalaya region (marked in green) forms the headwaters for all Asia’s major rivers, Indus, Ganges, the Yellow and the Yangtze rivers.
Nearly a third of Pakistan’s Indus River, flows westward through the Himalaya
Then turns southward and flows to Pakistan’s Sindh region and into the Arabian sea. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It is also argued that changes in mountain snow alters the atmospheric pressure gradient that drives the monsoon water vapor from the cooler ocean onto the warmer land.
More snow reduces summertime warming and thus reduces the pressure gradient and reduces the monsoonal flow. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7lAZb3SOIWivkByzYooUHazNMPSot9MCN3v5UddIKgVL9_JqCgU99-WZ1x80AB96ODT10CjrvycL6bYkM2Zlzs3TccGG2-FlkFR3jhSDpZkv2HYg3PxBgy0mbroJ_XMLJrHCOWuQcYZkBYyuxuZ0s59wnKnjjdprdvMCVBLRSkVX1C-ntZcHke6COzw/s918/MOUNTAIN%20OCEAN%20MONSON%20PRESSURE%20GRADIENT.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="918" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7lAZb3SOIWivkByzYooUHazNMPSot9MCN3v5UddIKgVL9_JqCgU99-WZ1x80AB96ODT10CjrvycL6bYkM2Zlzs3TccGG2-FlkFR3jhSDpZkv2HYg3PxBgy0mbroJ_XMLJrHCOWuQcYZkBYyuxuZ0s59wnKnjjdprdvMCVBLRSkVX1C-ntZcHke6COzw/w640-h370/MOUNTAIN%20OCEAN%20MONSON%20PRESSURE%20GRADIENT.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast, bare ground heats faster. That increases the pressure gradient and pulls more moisture inland. However, this dynamic is again irrelevant for the Indus River. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Despite measurable glacier retreat in the eastern Himalaya, the Indus flows through the Karakorum range of the western Himalaya. It is home to what scientists have labeled the "Karakorum anomaly". </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Several studies report that glaciers in the Karakorum are not melting, but stable and even advancing, and that should reduce monsoon rains over Pakistan. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAFJFextkeBw8ji1R5KpYbwRBj2sRFP7QKw_AJ7ugt-tsAyOWYcHTLQztlbRGo1D1P8xTmiySKyrbYO0QHOZjsBC0fWT4l9OWpVkovpFWxZLbp0zFRvRxEt42hy-3a8GYMkguHw2_-pyx3NtIxmnckOEbforUmb1SvV4Sr9-0zbyMpbX-CCW7mZJ97DQ/s1315/INDUS%20IN%20KARAKORUM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="921" data-original-width="1315" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAFJFextkeBw8ji1R5KpYbwRBj2sRFP7QKw_AJ7ugt-tsAyOWYcHTLQztlbRGo1D1P8xTmiySKyrbYO0QHOZjsBC0fWT4l9OWpVkovpFWxZLbp0zFRvRxEt42hy-3a8GYMkguHw2_-pyx3NtIxmnckOEbforUmb1SvV4Sr9-0zbyMpbX-CCW7mZJ97DQ/w640-h448/INDUS%20IN%20KARAKORUM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Peak flows of the Indus River and its tributaries have been carefully measured since 1921 to monitor flood threats and irrigation needs. Those measurements further contradict claims that melting glaciers have increased monsoon flooding. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Indus River flows are illustrated by blue bars and reveal a declining trend in stream flow. The data also illustrates that flow volumes can vary by 2 to 3 times, again illustrating the highly variable Pakistan climate. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibRc330QgVaDPIy88QUMluhNafYVbrHkWzo9oPoyX2s2Jub1gkta6aiUln4oEDU8Pa6oLAE8UTW53yD-ukhSOP-NFlmA0blVHfRJQ4Szk8V_hNKLAG2nVEf-um11pRH9pC-nujnweXM0cfSc8S_zkhEa3AXOeqSRWkKGee7pQZyT5yJKymczQiSflJ_g/s1520/KRAKORUM%20TEMPERATURE%20ANOMALY.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="1520" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibRc330QgVaDPIy88QUMluhNafYVbrHkWzo9oPoyX2s2Jub1gkta6aiUln4oEDU8Pa6oLAE8UTW53yD-ukhSOP-NFlmA0blVHfRJQ4Szk8V_hNKLAG2nVEf-um11pRH9pC-nujnweXM0cfSc8S_zkhEa3AXOeqSRWkKGee7pQZyT5yJKymczQiSflJ_g/w640-h246/KRAKORUM%20TEMPERATURE%20ANOMALY.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Karakorum also has a unique temperature history. Tree ring studies determined Karakorum temperatures were warmer in the 1600s than temperatures today, adding to the list of regions not experiencing a warming crisis. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Other natural weather dynamics affect the pressure gradient between the ocean and the land that controls the monsoon strength and location. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In the simplest of terms, the Madden Julian Oscillation's 30-to-60-day migrations across the Indian ocean throughout the year alters the monsoon pressure gradient by altering the Indian ocean's pressure systems on a weekly timescale. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj8X7nspQ1Xo5tTrk5ruixo2AbqVP3bt6RsdocNMs8AwE1ONpcJ0eYVFZbPLAsbPRTQkZe1p1VbEqAcrgXQhudH_vQstL6aRgAifCZcQ_AOeX2YcWLmGFJIyuuBqWE-LAN-KNA1_Pp66NApnq9jIHSOohQGfsn5DkDMWoeoAfLdL_cXX5lOa0IwmvfEA/s1116/MADDEN%20JULIAN.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1116" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj8X7nspQ1Xo5tTrk5ruixo2AbqVP3bt6RsdocNMs8AwE1ONpcJ0eYVFZbPLAsbPRTQkZe1p1VbEqAcrgXQhudH_vQstL6aRgAifCZcQ_AOeX2YcWLmGFJIyuuBqWE-LAN-KNA1_Pp66NApnq9jIHSOohQGfsn5DkDMWoeoAfLdL_cXX5lOa0IwmvfEA/w640-h454/MADDEN%20JULIAN.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Madden Julia Oscillation contributes to the alternating monsoon pattern of active phases with heavy rains and suppressed phases with little to no rain. </span></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
Jet stream meanderings also generate alternating regions of high and low-pressure systems. This causes regions of increased convection alternating with regions of suppressed convection, as well as regions where the winds pull warm moist air northwards versus regions where cool drier air is pushed southwards.</span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbh9G1CWgKvOrpoURMvXCZU-1NrX83WrKqMUdNpVk-gu6n5FNYZjO_HPqbokhO94OG_87-_Qe3FQ65ZQneOg_uVZXKXZsAmANpiUox28rxKeLZQOpZQpunF0Nl7f0BwwULjCIqc4FYBXYPRG48IYpHlToqoA_8MWRkk5CHvi6aFTafyle536Ijl9QC5A/s1508/JET%20STREAM%20%20HIGHS%20AND%20LOWS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1508" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbh9G1CWgKvOrpoURMvXCZU-1NrX83WrKqMUdNpVk-gu6n5FNYZjO_HPqbokhO94OG_87-_Qe3FQ65ZQneOg_uVZXKXZsAmANpiUox28rxKeLZQOpZQpunF0Nl7f0BwwULjCIqc4FYBXYPRG48IYpHlToqoA_8MWRkk5CHvi6aFTafyle536Ijl9QC5A/w640-h332/JET%20STREAM%20%20HIGHS%20AND%20LOWS.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Deep convection from the Madden Julia Oscillation can also initiate a global wave train of rising and sinking air that creates alternating low- and high-pressure systems. These wave trains interact with the jet stream which enable a pathway, or wave guide, for the wave train to follow. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2d7D96uLf_KATcpe36DnbCe7mRBcpzJXkNIxZWyJ3Efc-w7IGTDVJrDrvX-tOpj8hQJgxF76uOACME4oFgM2VTAYr5SVLIBHFac5phT6PjPRiZwfKoIyw7NKLOr8yD_kUJRNeTy_LAjTA-5TpHfvQgrAnC8lWbi5w0VtlXzt8vISuaGKst7qFSSeQIg/s1818/MJO%20WAVE%20TRAIN.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="1818" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2d7D96uLf_KATcpe36DnbCe7mRBcpzJXkNIxZWyJ3Efc-w7IGTDVJrDrvX-tOpj8hQJgxF76uOACME4oFgM2VTAYr5SVLIBHFac5phT6PjPRiZwfKoIyw7NKLOr8yD_kUJRNeTy_LAjTA-5TpHfvQgrAnC8lWbi5w0VtlXzt8vISuaGKst7qFSSeQIg/w640-h228/MJO%20WAVE%20TRAIN.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A common wave train pattern that affects Pakistan and India, is called the " Silk Road Pattern " and it can have a significant impact on monsoonal flows. Again in the simplest of terms, the wave train alters the monsoon pressure gradient by altering pressure systems over land. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Furthermore, the latitude of this pattern varies over decades which alters the wave trains impacts. It has moved southward (negative values) in recent decades associated with more shifts in monsoon rainfall from eastern India to western India. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjozUOSSNRLWu4B6ObJk8KLXZXJw0ga1V_j_M1wFAiwNvsn4NKZv_t36pogOlYkfh45yAr76DK7610CT1sx3Qp2uSVnSDjaAvT2SYIKxxMbM_eGKHcU6hcPfjjgqMkoLr_rnQqeAXTZYLRKH7Uew2r2EFsOiOLlAL2TY1BoP9SxS9fIo5gexLHwNqVjXQ/s3790/SILK%20ROAD%20PATTERN%20.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1952" data-original-width="3790" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjozUOSSNRLWu4B6ObJk8KLXZXJw0ga1V_j_M1wFAiwNvsn4NKZv_t36pogOlYkfh45yAr76DK7610CT1sx3Qp2uSVnSDjaAvT2SYIKxxMbM_eGKHcU6hcPfjjgqMkoLr_rnQqeAXTZYLRKH7Uew2r2EFsOiOLlAL2TY1BoP9SxS9fIo5gexLHwNqVjXQ/w640-h330/SILK%20ROAD%20PATTERN%20.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And to illustrate one final example of how the earth's natural oscillations have all conspired to produce Pakistan’s floods, consider how the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts the Silk Road wave train. When the North Atlantic Oscillation is in its positive phase, the jet stream remains further to the north, and monsoon rainfall in eastern India is strong. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, when the North Atlantic Oscillation is negative, the jet stream and Silk Road Pattern dips southward. That weakens the monsoons in eastern India while promoting greater monsoon rains in Pakistan and northern china. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtSaJB48YK46e6IslKdPKfhOLBy6eKAvlt6GS3D8Rgr26MFFIJ7By9n_oLnR7Ut3Xa5Tdco4ZslivF7XmBzShHK5lQz2sjbmTtEtWr4fNb2r1RnEe9famSRqcbKA5M_gjYlYQUFBKsIfQcr827wsf8xhTKQWoad03s4byk5ssWYcB78LZz4Li3l30qDQ/s3611/NAO%20AFFECT%20ON%20JET%20STREAM%20MONSOONS.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1938" data-original-width="3611" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtSaJB48YK46e6IslKdPKfhOLBy6eKAvlt6GS3D8Rgr26MFFIJ7By9n_oLnR7Ut3Xa5Tdco4ZslivF7XmBzShHK5lQz2sjbmTtEtWr4fNb2r1RnEe9famSRqcbKA5M_gjYlYQUFBKsIfQcr827wsf8xhTKQWoad03s4byk5ssWYcB78LZz4Li3l30qDQ/w640-h344/NAO%20AFFECT%20ON%20JET%20STREAM%20MONSOONS.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When CO2 warming predictions are contradicted by both observations and science, alarmist simply default to arguing CO2 warming is just making the climate go crazy. But again, science does not support such fanciful fear mongering. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Studies by Chen 2010 concluded “climate instability is above normal during cold periods”. “There is overwhelming evidence for increased climatic instability during the Little Ice Age over the past 1000 years in northwestern china" </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1sGk-1tHBkitoZkilwll63_cSoOV52JrQK3rvZeXNT-1eFuLiMkYJ-Qo40twJWLdde0Z-TaGrDPkN6ZhgLUUtkY2yH2bc4oTZ1IQRXqI5aG2yXoIx7K2oX7dJy1ScLwa02_rPtp8kUkSuF8uPksrkYR90MSRLSOhDxvrX2ONV1mtFMprEbOlva8yBhA/s434/CRAZY%20CLIMATE.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="434" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1sGk-1tHBkitoZkilwll63_cSoOV52JrQK3rvZeXNT-1eFuLiMkYJ-Qo40twJWLdde0Z-TaGrDPkN6ZhgLUUtkY2yH2bc4oTZ1IQRXqI5aG2yXoIx7K2oX7dJy1ScLwa02_rPtp8kUkSuF8uPksrkYR90MSRLSOhDxvrX2ONV1mtFMprEbOlva8yBhA/w640-h210/CRAZY%20CLIMATE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And it seems to be the consensus that colder periods make climate more unstable or, dare I say, crazy. Leading climate alarmist, Michael Mann likewise wrote, "the Little Ice Age may have been more significant in terms of increased variability of the climate, rather than changes in the average climate itself." </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Most people don’t have the time or background to take a deep dive into climate science and uncover its truths. But there are several catch phrases that should alert everyone that it is not the science, manipulative catastrophic narratives that are preying on your sincere concerns. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGd7tTQHTC12YkwLjv_jynHVG2NsDuxASW8bwBjypMi6ekmoe-RXXExeYseCEwj_z95vBTC2kF5hQQA5HnnCUTeIrmCjnNUqfbK6Zv-scv8MpMTe8KuhDSr10PIG1k-xrnVbYXRCNTUI6KDdOi4idVAxAaXmpe8Opbh4HbZFhfrv_0jC5CJH44hCFiBw/s423/HAND%20OVER%20THE%20MONEY%20CRTOON.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="358" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGd7tTQHTC12YkwLjv_jynHVG2NsDuxASW8bwBjypMi6ekmoe-RXXExeYseCEwj_z95vBTC2kF5hQQA5HnnCUTeIrmCjnNUqfbK6Zv-scv8MpMTe8KuhDSr10PIG1k-xrnVbYXRCNTUI6KDdOi4idVAxAaXmpe8Opbh4HbZFhfrv_0jC5CJH44hCFiBw/w542-h640/HAND%20OVER%20THE%20MONEY%20CRTOON.jpg" width="542" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, beware when you hear or read </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">You are guilty of climate racism </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">You are guilty of promoting climate inequities </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">You are guilty of eating meat because cow farts are bad for the climate </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">You are guilty of driving a gasoline powered vehicle because they cause more wildfires & heatwaves </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">You are guilty of creating a climate crisis
So, just give us your money! </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To be clear, I am not suggesting that you shouldn’t voluntarily donate to humanitarian aid for flood victims. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">I am simply arguing, when you are being falsely shamed and berated with any of the above arguments suggesting it is your fault for Pakistan’s flood, it is very likely that the media and politicians are obscuring the true science of natural climate change and trying to manipulate you. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Science and our democracy depend on interactions within a diverse array of good critical thinkers, and from such interactions the best solutions will emerge. So, please shun mindless group think. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Instead embrace renowned scientist, Thomas Huxley's advice
Skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Thank you</span></p>
</div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-85187078515416453952022-08-25T19:38:00.004-07:002022-08-31T13:46:39.406-07:00SCIENCE OF SNOWFALL AND CLIMATE SNOWJOBS
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">Below is the trancript to the video </span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8udmYbXiOI">SCIENCE OF SNOWFALL AND CLIMATE SNOWJOBS </a></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">at https://youtu.be/g8udmYbXiOI</span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2JXzLOZ2bU93gO9DdG8laet6EW4-CXKQQ0pT1GyHdfCme0I8jrjE_NGemTyVX_qO_lFMuInfu9u7xV0ityYn761HyBz36QpJi0KEh7rfe8UmFI2SwSwH_90ChsHd8gVTyYXJMn0iHPwFWL31j76aiytRapXMKaPjRrpOSsZ2mAHN2KuouBJ1BYQtO1A/s1224/Bloomberg%20End%20of%20Snow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="786" data-original-width="1224" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2JXzLOZ2bU93gO9DdG8laet6EW4-CXKQQ0pT1GyHdfCme0I8jrjE_NGemTyVX_qO_lFMuInfu9u7xV0ityYn761HyBz36QpJi0KEh7rfe8UmFI2SwSwH_90ChsHd8gVTyYXJMn0iHPwFWL31j76aiytRapXMKaPjRrpOSsZ2mAHN2KuouBJ1BYQtO1A/w640-h410/Bloomberg%20End%20of%20Snow.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Welcome back everyone. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">This video addresses another atrocious media claim, this time by Bloomberg Green, that very soon there will be an end to snow. This fear mongering has been pushed for over a decade now. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In 2000, Dr. David Viner, the senior research scientist at the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, predicted within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is”. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But a quick review should show why such fear mongering is not supported by the science of snowfall. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigIgdIgfZeTMfGBof27Lfmsjzn_e_jnGEj_YW0CrlbVbAgYTSDZOMIfgtiFzrYo7ATNHtvOMfNzyedwJJk4lU9Hy05ucVbXF0EbhU_Zxp1ZL_DE-6yukXtgS-JpS-bjx33qyhqnIt6ZUqzzY43u6k_CkKG8v5yEzgbMqIYkG78zQEKzVnCGsk9gGz_CQ/s3565/sierra%20nevad%20snow%20bloomberg.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1695" data-original-width="3565" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigIgdIgfZeTMfGBof27Lfmsjzn_e_jnGEj_YW0CrlbVbAgYTSDZOMIfgtiFzrYo7ATNHtvOMfNzyedwJJk4lU9Hy05ucVbXF0EbhU_Zxp1ZL_DE-6yukXtgS-JpS-bjx33qyhqnIt6ZUqzzY43u6k_CkKG8v5yEzgbMqIYkG78zQEKzVnCGsk9gGz_CQ/w640-h304/sierra%20nevad%20snow%20bloomberg.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Bloomberg's journalists clearly do not understand the difference between natural weather oscillations and climate change. They compared the Sierra Nevada’s heavy snowfall in 2019 with low snowfall in 2022 as evidence of a declining trend in snowfall. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But they NEVER addressed the well-known effects of El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that cause such variations. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlt_jLkB-CZjdyvn6qE4C8oHXsog6cNpytmGbspqcLYj5UjkVtnUyZAvE2DL3olb-iaRJnFlTznhM9vKrbRtnCwUUfVdukrrq0Sgf7T7zj-XIiSA4wlx-AfWF8Kxc0biQi1R3dro8yMs7F56GIKOnCLMj1-B53MxXxVQK3LAN5jgOUyfwawgNeTTw4dQ/s2575/christy%20snowpack%202010.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1860" data-original-width="2575" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlt_jLkB-CZjdyvn6qE4C8oHXsog6cNpytmGbspqcLYj5UjkVtnUyZAvE2DL3olb-iaRJnFlTznhM9vKrbRtnCwUUfVdukrrq0Sgf7T7zj-XIiSA4wlx-AfWF8Kxc0biQi1R3dro8yMs7F56GIKOnCLMj1-B53MxXxVQK3LAN5jgOUyfwawgNeTTw4dQ/w640-h462/christy%20snowpack%202010.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Studies detailing 3-fold changes in Sierra Nevada snowfall over the years have been published, such as Christy’s 2010 research paper. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">By ignoring a wealth of snowfall science, Bloomberg’s so-called journalists will be better known for their ridiculous end of snow predictions. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisSHcASQTyraPY2ujHfXE7blb44OUWgpNynCqwTtKMWoZOYBeCgNUVhJqcjXtupKp5GioRcMdgVqDcCyQDlP-SzS9OSQlxV-F-ptUOGt31MnwFiESFEPeb5ZnNqbS2uuXhtzng4M7sDoAWns2t3xVX_vRzZvQqa2sMuIhHZZA5UbaIWjh8WF-VE0hNGQ/s808/cartoon%20frozen%20climate%20guy.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="750" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisSHcASQTyraPY2ujHfXE7blb44OUWgpNynCqwTtKMWoZOYBeCgNUVhJqcjXtupKp5GioRcMdgVqDcCyQDlP-SzS9OSQlxV-F-ptUOGt31MnwFiESFEPeb5ZnNqbS2uuXhtzng4M7sDoAWns2t3xVX_vRzZvQqa2sMuIhHZZA5UbaIWjh8WF-VE0hNGQ/w593-h640/cartoon%20frozen%20climate%20guy.jpg" width="593" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Both the media and alarmist scientists are guilty of cherry-picking just the decline in springtime snow extent to push their end of snow fears.
But during the winter, snowfall has increased
And autumn snowfall has also increased.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl2fXy5XVqnwU62GLAXr1Tvvuh-1EjVBLOkbA0EjHdSb9fBmB5WyAfcyRMEwuYdBXk9PIHBKP3xjIPicZNC2ZKeodSrIRSGoYdz625mBkiK5g9rvYwze3WbkTPrjL9cyNbUW-44PYyfKpsFwLjGKUwvn0FRAKOpjGpZJotMgOyPnbvOQvGgb0mB8gGkQ/s1416/NH%20spring%20snow%20decline.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1265" data-original-width="1416" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl2fXy5XVqnwU62GLAXr1Tvvuh-1EjVBLOkbA0EjHdSb9fBmB5WyAfcyRMEwuYdBXk9PIHBKP3xjIPicZNC2ZKeodSrIRSGoYdz625mBkiK5g9rvYwze3WbkTPrjL9cyNbUW-44PYyfKpsFwLjGKUwvn0FRAKOpjGpZJotMgOyPnbvOQvGgb0mB8gGkQ/w400-h358/NH%20spring%20snow%20decline.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Such contrasting trends again suggest that snow extent is not being controlled by global warming </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In an interview, Dr David Robinson, New Jersey’s state climatologist and head of the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab stated, </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> “There are “no easy answers” to the question of climate change and snow” </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyXeWLVfmAcNkOGlRw_cbvKz4RUDkNYut91aon8uOYMbxGV7nkK8ZQOi936P8_1z9fAOksM55BDMqo7Qlrdn3Yad9DS01cD8R1tAoEmNabrFsjyvahAbhe6hQCbKAab8TqM9F9uqIOyVSl0PmdJmduaOp9m4mHgan5c8A0s4RZMZv4OVGHe8CyC3iBxg/s2933/NH%20winter%20fall%20snow%20.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1265" data-original-width="2933" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyXeWLVfmAcNkOGlRw_cbvKz4RUDkNYut91aon8uOYMbxGV7nkK8ZQOi936P8_1z9fAOksM55BDMqo7Qlrdn3Yad9DS01cD8R1tAoEmNabrFsjyvahAbhe6hQCbKAab8TqM9F9uqIOyVSl0PmdJmduaOp9m4mHgan5c8A0s4RZMZv4OVGHe8CyC3iBxg/w640-h276/NH%20winter%20fall%20snow%20.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Regions that cover less than 6% of northern hemisphere explain 62%–92% of the interannual variance across the continents. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Snow will change in most places as the climate continues to warm, but exactly how and why, may be among the most challenging questions about weather and climate change </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So, ignore the doomsayers!
Let's quickly examine why there are indeed “no easy answers” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">As temperatures fall, significant snowfall happens each winter in the northern two thirds of the United States. The locations illustrated here in red experience the heaviest snowfall and are governed by very different moisture transport dynamics, prohibiting any one size fits all analysis of changes in global snowfall. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidtplq_5967npaPc0uP-i5SF9tJOOndEZu4MwCziYxEaPelmIReAobcbn0qxGeAG6OgcB9cKahKuzW-180mxJjEVyegXecYHNPiR9gSngrFrcUn-1xe76KxW6mHQjiWbaOr3F0WEA0M3eamC1HfwUQiOedyEFd-jl3SGK9eTmmfZi7x2JUxntteH80zQ/s622/USA%20snow%20%20pack.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="622" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidtplq_5967npaPc0uP-i5SF9tJOOndEZu4MwCziYxEaPelmIReAobcbn0qxGeAG6OgcB9cKahKuzW-180mxJjEVyegXecYHNPiR9gSngrFrcUn-1xe76KxW6mHQjiWbaOr3F0WEA0M3eamC1HfwUQiOedyEFd-jl3SGK9eTmmfZi7x2JUxntteH80zQ/w640-h370/USA%20snow%20%20pack.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">First remember what every elementary school child is told; no two snowflakes are the same. That may not be entirely true, but it speaks to the varying conditions of temperature and moisture that control snowflake formation, creating a huge spectrum of differing snowflake crystals that produce different snowpacks, from heavy wet snow to dry powdery snow. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAxBvT-5r6kqsvePekKnNdEWfYd0DM2eSvHoxn8ObtQZFpebbKpOj8z9qd2uUA2rN50iBkmWCKyFdnMhGIhY7ihbA1pO0prmhq4Y561dxJl0PARrVV1pmaLVL3G83kLA8sD_Z6I9UvhK4eIktmhnqwNsJGlxrCdInPdAOaZp-78xxJXc1Gh3w_0Zbkdw/s3658/snowflake%20spectrum.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2700" data-original-width="3658" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAxBvT-5r6kqsvePekKnNdEWfYd0DM2eSvHoxn8ObtQZFpebbKpOj8z9qd2uUA2rN50iBkmWCKyFdnMhGIhY7ihbA1pO0prmhq4Y561dxJl0PARrVV1pmaLVL3G83kLA8sD_Z6I9UvhK4eIktmhnqwNsJGlxrCdInPdAOaZp-78xxJXc1Gh3w_0Zbkdw/w640-h472/snowflake%20spectrum.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So, it could also be argued no two snowpacks are exactly alike. The density and thus water content of snowpacks can vary 3-fold. Depending on when the snow falls the snowpack can become denser over time.so simply measuring the extent of snow cover from satellites, fails to determine how much water fell as snow
So, scientists use snow water equivalent measurements, but those measurements require time consuming efforts and thus provide a very limited sample size of snow conditions. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYjKYukFVxb7UzEbt_UCuDqH205PqzLfcN7ngYk-SL-he5rSHr1BwZNUyHh5VJUfYrsY-1vGcVszth5I-cDC1jjKkrpNckXeXYjVEYv8EvecOowCikbq-T-imoQx9YherxhLpmPudl9NxP9mHCRubY8IMRaFXPdb0wDzt_ufgBXvAhlY5HInG6kJs__w/s647/swe%20benefits.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="647" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYjKYukFVxb7UzEbt_UCuDqH205PqzLfcN7ngYk-SL-he5rSHr1BwZNUyHh5VJUfYrsY-1vGcVszth5I-cDC1jjKkrpNckXeXYjVEYv8EvecOowCikbq-T-imoQx9YherxhLpmPudl9NxP9mHCRubY8IMRaFXPdb0wDzt_ufgBXvAhlY5HInG6kJs__w/w640-h418/swe%20benefits.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Still, we do know that El Nino cycles and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have very significant impacts on the snow water equivalent. Thus, the effects of natural oscillations must be considered for any analysis of snowfall trends. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Temperature and moisture have opposing effects on snowfall. As temperatures decrease to the point where snowflakes can form and reach the ground, the amount of moisture in the air decreases reducing the amount of snow</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The northern hemisphere's latitudes with greatest snowfall are also regions with the lowest winter atmospheric moisture. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwZ0GOCSfo1-3cFIxz2P0sTyMzqteN8v9lMXBMMz9cFmgUazhYluqISNraMgTpkYnbkIk6AWukD7qy_sI6q0AhSDN5eEl0yv6y8GB1kQmRUQ04ieNuMlCJef5j0IbSw9H8GiwId-Ydq_ilkYEnsv_lzTVDSGb_TJtgX82lFqLQdm9esQzn_hzQwKD4YQ/s4147/NH%20winter%20moisture.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1567" data-original-width="4147" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwZ0GOCSfo1-3cFIxz2P0sTyMzqteN8v9lMXBMMz9cFmgUazhYluqISNraMgTpkYnbkIk6AWukD7qy_sI6q0AhSDN5eEl0yv6y8GB1kQmRUQ04ieNuMlCJef5j0IbSw9H8GiwId-Ydq_ilkYEnsv_lzTVDSGb_TJtgX82lFqLQdm9esQzn_hzQwKD4YQ/w640-h242/NH%20winter%20moisture.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Predictions that global warming will melt more snow, suggest the biggest declines in snow extent will happen at the relatively warmer southerly edge of the northern hemisphere's snow extent. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But as surveyed by Kunkle 2016, the pattern of decreasing and increasing snowfall does not fit global warming expectations, again suggesting that varied dynamics of moisture transport are the key to understanding snowfall variations. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF829EYEHX-UfYEUelE6GCqBVCJNdZ-Qd9y5S-e3dbvrpbg_tu8tRvOIaiTtZzSHqDKB2i0Gvvf6PxxE_AVrSLe3uo9bfLoBVVe2AGOTgONqs3XgpRu0gnr4HoJT-MojPcPargGjb3nW4nNPxmBaUVpeb-ZMdNxiSHE3VLYKeLhF4s8TBtBZjTf8Stsw/s4317/decreasing%20%20decreasing%20NH%20snow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1503" data-original-width="4317" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF829EYEHX-UfYEUelE6GCqBVCJNdZ-Qd9y5S-e3dbvrpbg_tu8tRvOIaiTtZzSHqDKB2i0Gvvf6PxxE_AVrSLe3uo9bfLoBVVe2AGOTgONqs3XgpRu0gnr4HoJT-MojPcPargGjb3nW4nNPxmBaUVpeb-ZMdNxiSHE3VLYKeLhF4s8TBtBZjTf8Stsw/w640-h222/decreasing%20%20decreasing%20NH%20snow.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Furthermore, many studies unscientifically simply assume a global average temperature affects all regions equally. But as illustrated by Cohen 2014, much of the mid latitudes have experienced winter cooling for the past 2 decades. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And in contrast to global warming hypotheses, despite cooling over most of Eurasia, that region has experienced less snowfall. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Warmer air holds more moisture. And it is the transport of that moisture to cooler regions that provides enough water vapor for significant snowfall. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHTuEOKqZ8NmawmMq2EEq65uebXkgpH-cAyac5En-_fMvtowKXKM8YDps8JmjwALO2MReGXUaK5PuloB3lPADTZ6XtYDzSWzXy_Ev8qVCBPLeH9P7_XYNIt73d8MOhAdqkaTYxHc4Y8c-nP6WTrFrmwbEcvmsjsr9q-qo59KAvX1F7bv9LN-Uh0i8sWQ/s4102/temperature%20vs%20moisture.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1883" data-original-width="4102" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHTuEOKqZ8NmawmMq2EEq65uebXkgpH-cAyac5En-_fMvtowKXKM8YDps8JmjwALO2MReGXUaK5PuloB3lPADTZ6XtYDzSWzXy_Ev8qVCBPLeH9P7_XYNIt73d8MOhAdqkaTYxHc4Y8c-nP6WTrFrmwbEcvmsjsr9q-qo59KAvX1F7bv9LN-Uh0i8sWQ/w640-h294/temperature%20vs%20moisture.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">If warm air at 20 degrees Celsius is cooled to the freezing point, it will precipitate over 60% of its moisture. Typically, atmospheric rivers bringing moisture from the warm tropics will dump the most snow when making landfall further northward. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast, because cold arctic air masses averaging minus 10 to 30 degrees Celsius, that cold air hold insignificant amounts of moisture, and cannot bring significant snowfall directly to the regions it passes over. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Nonetheless that cold air can cause warm air water vapor to precipitate as snow. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3-iI5PU7ls0FILbFPHzTtXKt_wohE2xQAZs9XoKZgiPfbhq-3_3qkssPrZtHbJjxR4g2DuqIm2X0KtKDa8C_-R_BndlYmyFPfQFXcYnrHntWWgPAVtpubDAC-Z75jXtnGjlkXSZAjXEeATmzOISNq8eRmIRFIvwrU8tQ7oggsjmVMqe8537gbhu7u9A/s1356/snow%20rain%20sleet.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1356" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3-iI5PU7ls0FILbFPHzTtXKt_wohE2xQAZs9XoKZgiPfbhq-3_3qkssPrZtHbJjxR4g2DuqIm2X0KtKDa8C_-R_BndlYmyFPfQFXcYnrHntWWgPAVtpubDAC-Z75jXtnGjlkXSZAjXEeATmzOISNq8eRmIRFIvwrU8tQ7oggsjmVMqe8537gbhu7u9A/w640-h382/snow%20rain%20sleet.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Typically, all moisture at higher altitudes forms snow, but if it descends through a warmer air mass, it turns to rain. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">If that rain then falls through a colder air mass nearer the ground it forms sleet or freezing surface rain. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">By preventing melt, snow accumulation only happens where the air is cold enough all the way to the surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">At weather fronts, cold air will force warm moist air to rise to altitudes where temperatures are cold enough to initiate snowflake formations</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW9nRregJOxybm-y1zepCuud8UJa4gECD9Aay8xs9uyTSbuL--heQBdBsgJXARDyiSjJnPlWaw9jxG1O-gxogA5I0Alk-I8scAjA-V9UKX6KwDU7_xES3X8Zg6wyQk49Z0apHihwFJDGnkYuf0yZ5upze-u829dx7EmgOjDf1ByAbxtSWkUcqih97brw/s4060/fronts%20%20and%20%20storms%20%20snowfall.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1929" data-original-width="4060" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW9nRregJOxybm-y1zepCuud8UJa4gECD9Aay8xs9uyTSbuL--heQBdBsgJXARDyiSjJnPlWaw9jxG1O-gxogA5I0Alk-I8scAjA-V9UKX6KwDU7_xES3X8Zg6wyQk49Z0apHihwFJDGnkYuf0yZ5upze-u829dx7EmgOjDf1ByAbxtSWkUcqih97brw/w640-h304/fronts%20%20and%20%20storms%20%20snowfall.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;">As storms move across the land, the counter-clockwise motion of the winds pulls cold air down from the north to interact with warm moist air being drawn northward.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus, the more northerly latitude of winter storm tracks will more likely produce the cold air required for snow accumulation. However, as storm tracks move northwards, snow fall could be reduced further south. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, studies find that although storm track latitudes have varied over the past 300 years there is no apparent trend as expected from global warming theories. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbYKk83FV-3s1FGXuP4fvcfu6etz0l1nFwNelMZki65EudHWR3qNGQE0_TjbgfZeQsGe4u_4BfjV5iqdGxtjEG2w6o2fQfR44AJfPeHJUL6_tnvXgZDVJ_6YSrC6RT4ygZtcG2JLRsmhcMRnH0VwrBGwRp0NbECc74_SZ2iPZ0s0R1so9HfaabjHxc9A/s1812/storm%20track%20latitude.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="602" data-original-width="1812" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbYKk83FV-3s1FGXuP4fvcfu6etz0l1nFwNelMZki65EudHWR3qNGQE0_TjbgfZeQsGe4u_4BfjV5iqdGxtjEG2w6o2fQfR44AJfPeHJUL6_tnvXgZDVJ_6YSrC6RT4ygZtcG2JLRsmhcMRnH0VwrBGwRp0NbECc74_SZ2iPZ0s0R1so9HfaabjHxc9A/w640-h212/storm%20track%20latitude.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Mountains have a tremendous effect on snowfall. Moist air forced upslope to cooler altitudes is the reason the greatest snowfall in the United States is found in mountainous regions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Although snow rarely falls over the west coast flatlands, just a hundred miles further east, heavy snow falls in the Sierra Nevada and cascade mountain ranges. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsiW1a6B1k00sY5ChgJ4GEe1qU9Zp97UoOli9ISU0_1ICM0CgCKZ6Ut-CJ59xPX_H4a0tnJk3fi8J2Mehwwo9_SgHBcWZeN6qbhg_CkYXjX5IHBvFiC_2hqNV3Qn613D04xfEEavwJE1nCMEe-6VpolTLiSgx6-d3H3sxy68RoS3Z9nZMHioc3S_jCPQ/s2195/sierra%20cascade%20%20snow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1452" data-original-width="2195" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsiW1a6B1k00sY5ChgJ4GEe1qU9Zp97UoOli9ISU0_1ICM0CgCKZ6Ut-CJ59xPX_H4a0tnJk3fi8J2Mehwwo9_SgHBcWZeN6qbhg_CkYXjX5IHBvFiC_2hqNV3Qn613D04xfEEavwJE1nCMEe-6VpolTLiSgx6-d3H3sxy68RoS3Z9nZMHioc3S_jCPQ/w640-h424/sierra%20cascade%20%20snow.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The amount of snow is governed by El Nino cycles. El Nino brings warm moist air to the southern USA. Accordingly, studies such as Lute 2014 have detailed how El Nino years bring high snowfalls to the Sierra Nevada, but reduced snowfall to the Pacific northwest.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">A swing to La Nina-like conditions brings dryness to California and the southern United States. The reduced Sierra Nevada snowfall of 2022, and fear mongered by Bloomberg’s “ End of Snow” click bait atrocity, was the result of reduced moisture transport associated with current La Nina conditions and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC6f6G9Rd7QTkRN2KHc4xlbqHy1MMKYPszMVDEKq2Rex77LACYSUDjxnKhK8Shzt9RjKE69eU_9rJrsPoO1o59wKXAjliM_b8gPTDH5OeMCL5WIKKuT7d-z_deVRzYOdZmXZfPVz3mdNosEhJlLkZ8NHCNMff3dEyQg213ff-aP3nfFyphoIZiX-dp_g/s4280/el%20nino%20north%20and%20south%20snow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1329" data-original-width="4280" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC6f6G9Rd7QTkRN2KHc4xlbqHy1MMKYPszMVDEKq2Rex77LACYSUDjxnKhK8Shzt9RjKE69eU_9rJrsPoO1o59wKXAjliM_b8gPTDH5OeMCL5WIKKuT7d-z_deVRzYOdZmXZfPVz3mdNosEhJlLkZ8NHCNMff3dEyQg213ff-aP3nfFyphoIZiX-dp_g/w640-h198/el%20nino%20north%20and%20south%20snow.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhQAc-aS_NtSBo_W-RrRCOJRnhnqZvaUgzCOE45TngfJGVH-rFl7PwTKLNncQh0HqmYPZrcj1QTQi7g-laLzcw9NknAYc64pJFxnNqVkYFxDfCsnHwptQjegw24E0j6uqOvNcJZxaV1S8b84vvGXNgScVhJCdi0CzCl9BM5k3GZ8w80Wz-Jg5s_pYzQ/s4354/la%20nina%20north%20south%20snow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1365" data-original-width="4354" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYhQAc-aS_NtSBo_W-RrRCOJRnhnqZvaUgzCOE45TngfJGVH-rFl7PwTKLNncQh0HqmYPZrcj1QTQi7g-laLzcw9NknAYc64pJFxnNqVkYFxDfCsnHwptQjegw24E0j6uqOvNcJZxaV1S8b84vvGXNgScVhJCdi0CzCl9BM5k3GZ8w80Wz-Jg5s_pYzQ/w640-h200/la%20nina%20north%20south%20snow.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">La Nina, however, directs more moisture northward causing more snow in the pacific northwest and the northern United States</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Other studies have shown oscillating years of much more vs much less snowfall in the Sierra Nevada for the last seven decades. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In the northern Sierra Nevada, there was an insignificant decreasing trend. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But an insignificant increasing trend in the southern Sierra Nevada</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And at low elevations in the southern Sierra Nevada where global warming hypotheses expect the greatest loss of snow, there has been an insignificant increase in snowfall</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_qtWHP88An7pPnKvx-61N3S7Ivq8_U8JZ_dmOG_PUmdzwzVfPlPH1Aef-QTuWtHWk4A519Vetoc33UOUxOI59JVx0iuJadouFdDAqACMVzN_knAZKjfGSunkpyJIy78fb4ExWhYFSk8nq7Xgr7vK887uTf9MlP3kw-R0KMS8o0X7h9PCg0hybyPzKzA/s4212/sierra%20%20nevada%20snow%20%2070%20years.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2030" data-original-width="4212" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_qtWHP88An7pPnKvx-61N3S7Ivq8_U8JZ_dmOG_PUmdzwzVfPlPH1Aef-QTuWtHWk4A519Vetoc33UOUxOI59JVx0iuJadouFdDAqACMVzN_knAZKjfGSunkpyJIy78fb4ExWhYFSk8nq7Xgr7vK887uTf9MlP3kw-R0KMS8o0X7h9PCg0hybyPzKzA/w640-h308/sierra%20%20nevada%20snow%20%2070%20years.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The heavy snowfall in the Rocky Mountains is also partially determined by El Nino cycles. However, the moisture carried from the pacific by westerly winds during the winter loses much of that moisture before reaching Colorado, resulting in the dry powdery snow that is so favored by skiers. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But that changes in the spring!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">A low-pressure system settles in during the spring causing easterly winds to carry moisture from the Gulf of Mexico westward. These dynamics deliver wetter snow and as much if not more snow than falls during the winter. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfIHIoVUPYsHhstpJqALhPWEPJRvcOBKqPrxB1NVoISgIEUkZDsdyxly7QxdzA7B3ZRQKaYDtLnEiOLxRh-K_vdNkMnjC8EgOl7PNzeswsMO2QeQn24pyybAI3YTyn0T2Edv2IbtDcBirnFNQaYTPHIelvxDdEz7f1SMXZjNx1-aG_lv_f9vPG8h_mJg/s3992/rocky%20mtn%20spring%20snow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1384" data-original-width="3992" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfIHIoVUPYsHhstpJqALhPWEPJRvcOBKqPrxB1NVoISgIEUkZDsdyxly7QxdzA7B3ZRQKaYDtLnEiOLxRh-K_vdNkMnjC8EgOl7PNzeswsMO2QeQn24pyybAI3YTyn0T2Edv2IbtDcBirnFNQaYTPHIelvxDdEz7f1SMXZjNx1-aG_lv_f9vPG8h_mJg/w640-h222/rocky%20mtn%20spring%20snow.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Despite the lack of mountains, the midwestern USA experiences heavy snowfall from lake-effect snow. Cold dry Arctic air will absorb copious moisture as it passes over the relatively warmer great lakes and then dumps it inland. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Studies associated with NOAA have mapped out the contributions from lake-effect snow. They reported that while non-lake-effect snowfall has decreased in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, lake-effect snow has increased. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8lK0juIrAM0_U1t629Q_VwRxJvA4mLfwxXyVr-_PUkyGwMU02QZ5Qnp4zdLhddy-cSd0NOpcmesU-5IySZxnV0Jz59Kmh5RHHAIVzkmhVP86JqkGFvCzZGmE5WMQEVA2Dj5PXgbFYGAhRjXyV7NAYNfHTgslsyTWr6bYvxGi9Kcj-TMQwSdQpZTkxuw/s796/great%20lake%20open%20water.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="796" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8lK0juIrAM0_U1t629Q_VwRxJvA4mLfwxXyVr-_PUkyGwMU02QZ5Qnp4zdLhddy-cSd0NOpcmesU-5IySZxnV0Jz59Kmh5RHHAIVzkmhVP86JqkGFvCzZGmE5WMQEVA2Dj5PXgbFYGAhRjXyV7NAYNfHTgslsyTWr6bYvxGi9Kcj-TMQwSdQpZTkxuw/w640-h406/great%20lake%20open%20water.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaWj_YYceQr2WxIxQ7TrTc19YbKFc-vFrz13gttplShjotYCGgVCt2O7NHJiPGRN1ULePDHY9d0NUSgnY2aGnykUNf01TflICQXUYUjZVT6ITWNVl_MPlE6zW5KOq1RWaug5mX1P9V2eZo4nEtdncDNsQggKbsrDLE5KBzyVccWEQk90zww-nWd7wPZA/s3863/lake%20effect%20noaa.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1191" data-original-width="3863" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaWj_YYceQr2WxIxQ7TrTc19YbKFc-vFrz13gttplShjotYCGgVCt2O7NHJiPGRN1ULePDHY9d0NUSgnY2aGnykUNf01TflICQXUYUjZVT6ITWNVl_MPlE6zW5KOq1RWaug5mX1P9V2eZo4nEtdncDNsQggKbsrDLE5KBzyVccWEQk90zww-nWd7wPZA/w640-h198/lake%20effect%20noaa.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">They attributed the increase in lake effect snow to declines in ice cover caused by global warming. But that is inaccurate and not very truthful for a government sponsored scientific study. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It has been well established that lake effect snow is governed by many variables:
Besides ice cover, wind speed and wind direction have major impacts.
When the winds blow along the long axis of a lake more moisture is absorbed, and greater snowfall occurs. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Indeed, ice cover does have a major effect, however only lake eerie ever completely freezes each year, while most of the deeper lakes maintain large areas of open water illustrated here by dark purple colors. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Although ice cover declined as NOAA noted from 1975 to 2000. Ice cover then increased from 2000 onward, contrary to global warming predictions of declining ice cover. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVUVRO5PoocknUbrm3IUBMqKBTOwacS3nVcIBVTeiWGkzoiHgCKGMqTP05Iw08Mx-VqneviV0vzAGpWn536U342NPQL6crmEgHAX4QAhxe0AyNj4d0Yu_-xqiRtKaXFAZ0YXKBihJ7PJZ-9VYfZ4rUmdzzpDFHkQwFEN4jVizzKTRBCyuFWVJ9C1e70g/s3648/great%20lake%20ice%20cover%20%20treends.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="985" data-original-width="3648" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVUVRO5PoocknUbrm3IUBMqKBTOwacS3nVcIBVTeiWGkzoiHgCKGMqTP05Iw08Mx-VqneviV0vzAGpWn536U342NPQL6crmEgHAX4QAhxe0AyNj4d0Yu_-xqiRtKaXFAZ0YXKBihJ7PJZ-9VYfZ4rUmdzzpDFHkQwFEN4jVizzKTRBCyuFWVJ9C1e70g/w640-h172/great%20lake%20ice%20cover%20%20treends.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Cold dry winds blowing from Siberia absorb moisture as they cross the Sea of Japan. Upslope snowfall then deposits great amounts of snow on the mountain tops leaving very little moisture to reach Japan’s east coast</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOXJjxyM-ZtfVcfKvCuTlGxVR59C3RsS0Oolg8699gW58rbWTSbrpRmMdfeHvLJ0gy_TTfvI1bzGGTLvK9gcueG-n69AAvZpbQNoVtjr4QruTdLR7rExVaB2p7PnZfxtbbq5g86p8CTTcb40s-p6p6bbUjSjs-1WHbR1BUsmkZACSLar8bdaTwek9XHA/s893/heavy%20japan%20snow%20.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="893" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOXJjxyM-ZtfVcfKvCuTlGxVR59C3RsS0Oolg8699gW58rbWTSbrpRmMdfeHvLJ0gy_TTfvI1bzGGTLvK9gcueG-n69AAvZpbQNoVtjr4QruTdLR7rExVaB2p7PnZfxtbbq5g86p8CTTcb40s-p6p6bbUjSjs-1WHbR1BUsmkZACSLar8bdaTwek9XHA/w640-h426/heavy%20japan%20snow%20.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The strength and direction of those winds changes as the high-pressure system over Siberia varies. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The strength and location of the Aleutian low pressure system, which is altered by El Nino cycles and the Pacific Decadal oscillation, also alters the pressure gradient which controls the strength and direction of the winds and thus the amount of sea-effect snow accumulation. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtqauLzME6rJxJqkenhkxRJ4zcCAvrxG1Dvit47CzVarzlDoEzGa4DDJRAtFtU0Uei7XNNjh_yD45PaffNJuPUw0_9jkVTVzn8WLKw8KKSxNnKUd_s99wjtEODrjlPkB0yWCBNZZ19YR59_rAsluOCTwCKEEcoM2r-YlEMeV9qZ7pQrEVi0dAV5Kx2HQ/s3932/japan%20snow%20siberia%20aleutian%20low.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1970" data-original-width="3932" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtqauLzME6rJxJqkenhkxRJ4zcCAvrxG1Dvit47CzVarzlDoEzGa4DDJRAtFtU0Uei7XNNjh_yD45PaffNJuPUw0_9jkVTVzn8WLKw8KKSxNnKUd_s99wjtEODrjlPkB0yWCBNZZ19YR59_rAsluOCTwCKEEcoM2r-YlEMeV9qZ7pQrEVi0dAV5Kx2HQ/w640-h320/japan%20snow%20siberia%20aleutian%20low.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Due to such variability, Japan’s local snow accumulation has exhibited no trend in one location,
</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">increasing snowfall trends in others, </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">and decreasing trends in still others. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6aeT6iELgk2_iihDW7YSPF9Cg4dcix_I5uyP2KyLPRCQvR615tXA2T1rlFMo38Y2jwn3Ww_6WFz_D6-qylyjn1GOpYsLiSBYWVonc1a0_GcEJUBqs0ik3qqbYbSwBdD3otTv_weY2DUj6SteKrIuVEFOzju5uQzPY0mLL1Vz38EKL-7tkPbGWD9_L9g/s4056/varied%20japan%20snow%20trends.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="4056" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6aeT6iELgk2_iihDW7YSPF9Cg4dcix_I5uyP2KyLPRCQvR615tXA2T1rlFMo38Y2jwn3Ww_6WFz_D6-qylyjn1GOpYsLiSBYWVonc1a0_GcEJUBqs0ik3qqbYbSwBdD3otTv_weY2DUj6SteKrIuVEFOzju5uQzPY0mLL1Vz38EKL-7tkPbGWD9_L9g/w640-h324/varied%20japan%20snow%20trends.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The last region in the United States of high snowfall is in the northeast.Moisture from the Atlantic is delivered via winter storms known as "nor-easters" and dumped in the higher elevations of the Green or White Mountains further inland. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr2rt5247qACTRiEtu3eCgiX58xRc1XWdkRCFonOGazPmLN0RHRoYWfg74AhwRIsTUGOXeoiOMuGFooGKJNPV1sRULvqGsKgl3WyzhChFOuSIGlz97h51zStof7opgT7xERzIMu-wT-rqzqgH1XGLDB8Ioi5XbjXyDXuRSk8g21DJmuQgbziAoFGXqlA/s4363/northeast%20snow%20%20pack.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1604" data-original-width="4363" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr2rt5247qACTRiEtu3eCgiX58xRc1XWdkRCFonOGazPmLN0RHRoYWfg74AhwRIsTUGOXeoiOMuGFooGKJNPV1sRULvqGsKgl3WyzhChFOuSIGlz97h51zStof7opgT7xERzIMu-wT-rqzqgH1XGLDB8Ioi5XbjXyDXuRSk8g21DJmuQgbziAoFGXqlA/w640-h236/northeast%20snow%20%20pack.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Snowfall here is largely governed by moisture transport that varies with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The related Arctic Oscillation determines where and how much cold Arctic air moves southward to interact with relatively warm moist air flowing from the Atlantic. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgTtDXuanKnHDaOTAzgabQ9t1EhTZsrnmOMgPh-EN-W9wmgVE7-A1Dx4ZX-d_qEoWg3iHMreYnf-itkv5fT_a6AWJ42KD2QoqY-zWDxdJmEzwmALOORtaluYlHrfxqGMRUncXtwQTBxeSICTFJrBWBKGAdU8OxK4f2YPXXjAJV26OufjlA6pdi8U3yTw/s4253/NAO%20AO%20snow.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1764" data-original-width="4253" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgTtDXuanKnHDaOTAzgabQ9t1EhTZsrnmOMgPh-EN-W9wmgVE7-A1Dx4ZX-d_qEoWg3iHMreYnf-itkv5fT_a6AWJ42KD2QoqY-zWDxdJmEzwmALOORtaluYlHrfxqGMRUncXtwQTBxeSICTFJrBWBKGAdU8OxK4f2YPXXjAJV26OufjlA6pdi8U3yTw/w640-h266/NAO%20AO%20snow.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The many possible interactions amongst the natural oscillations, described in this video, have huge effects on moisture transport and thus snow accumulation. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So snowpacks will naturally ebb and flow accordingly. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus, the great complexities governing snowfall across the northern hemisphere indeed provide no easy answers regards the effect of climate change. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So don’t believe the doomsayers. The science has yet to support their fear mongering. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4E5Lq_u9NVhUn5oU_yEdSVouQ4oKsp0Mrt_ujc8LhMv11L2dD7RXCRB8rQC83DCMxwLkQ0HJ9DnGU3I4yHExYLa8VA4nCfozMkiPGEjJtSamN8pUC8tiYtgEcpw_HbhccZ82IQuqCeuAU5XQaXWXJx1mO8RPhu1Y4r1K9c2QYUvEaRFpWXrTTP2RsKw/s3332/winter%20sports.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1631" data-original-width="3332" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4E5Lq_u9NVhUn5oU_yEdSVouQ4oKsp0Mrt_ujc8LhMv11L2dD7RXCRB8rQC83DCMxwLkQ0HJ9DnGU3I4yHExYLa8VA4nCfozMkiPGEjJtSamN8pUC8tiYtgEcpw_HbhccZ82IQuqCeuAU5XQaXWXJx1mO8RPhu1Y4r1K9c2QYUvEaRFpWXrTTP2RsKw/w640-h314/winter%20sports.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And don’t hesitate to buy your children winter sports equipment. There will be plenty of snow most years for them to enjoy. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And I am so confident of the science of snowfall, that I promise to reimburse everyone's winter sports expenditures, if "the end of snow", ever really happens in our lifetimes! </span></p>
<p></p></div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-82702645258732018952022-08-15T14:23:00.000-07:002022-08-15T14:23:43.566-07:00Australia’s Mangroves: BBC & ABC’s Disturbing Fear mongering with Scientific Dishonesty and Idiocy<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Australia’s Mangroves: </span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">BBC & ABC’s Disturbing Fearmongering with Scientific Dishonesty and Idiocy </span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">I want to thank Dr. Alan Longhurst for alerting me to the BBC’s fearmongering. He requested that I address the media’s perversion of science. Dr. Longhurst (now 97 years-old) is one of the world’s premiere oceanographers, inventor of the Longhurst-Hardy Plankton Recorder, served as the first Director of the Southwest Fisheries Science Center of the US National Marine Fisheries Service and Director of the esteemed Marine Ecology Laboratory of Canada’s Bedford Institute of Oceanography, among other prestigious positions and tropical research. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> (The photos and captions are screenshots from BBC: Mangrove forests: How 40 million Australian trees died of thirst.) </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq8MQt4W63pzzJ2WA4VEChP9d2mrJs1BmiLfPv8pOHlPXEB1sVROmqeDa4-GrZh-WIMPi4HwbFLzkuu4ikxgLkruqWpy7XkyKhuvelHZBDFQ5z8LvGjX5Um2n_M_pdg1C5dCJ2XRudHt8yiTBdR34D7UdQqpq6_p4tUsPnJuDBRoW9KceFsaOUGiMnfw/s646/BBC%20mangrove%20what%20climate%20change%20looks%20ike.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="364" data-original-width="646" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq8MQt4W63pzzJ2WA4VEChP9d2mrJs1BmiLfPv8pOHlPXEB1sVROmqeDa4-GrZh-WIMPi4HwbFLzkuu4ikxgLkruqWpy7XkyKhuvelHZBDFQ5z8LvGjX5Um2n_M_pdg1C5dCJ2XRudHt8yiTBdR34D7UdQqpq6_p4tUsPnJuDBRoW9KceFsaOUGiMnfw/w640-h360/BBC%20mangrove%20what%20climate%20change%20looks%20ike.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> The BBC’s short video begins by showing devastated mangrove forests form northern Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria from a 2015-2016 die-off. The BBC and ABC (Australian Broadcasting Company) framed this natural event as a human-caused climate change disaster, to perpetuate the myth of a climate crisis. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Mangrove specialist Dr Norman Duke attributed the episodic 2015 die-off to a 40 cm drop in sea level for 6 months due to an El Nino that caused the mangroves to “die of thirst”. Duke acknowledged that it is well known that El Ninos naturally cause such major drops in sea level in the western Pacific. But there is no evidence, nor any consensus, that El Ninos have been made worse by rising CO2. It is known however, that El Nino activity has increased over the last 6000 years as the earth cooled since the Holocene Optimum due to changes in the sun’s orbital cycles. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3i3DK28CRDpb2dGiKEWov8f3M53x-tlAO-VvgGPwHqU9H7ywIolzkEOGJQfNCHsjO0AUN023JKdxSGRhyziEaM19lAYdlWI4VZLL96v4OfsopzLytkkXEz9GbMJ3C4oPdTcciWYBPfEzTQu-A6-6okNWyKrPzS1IQnIOd0eWWagY8530dJXSdvrteuA/s1223/gulf%20of%20carpentaria.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1035" data-original-width="1223" height="542" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3i3DK28CRDpb2dGiKEWov8f3M53x-tlAO-VvgGPwHqU9H7ywIolzkEOGJQfNCHsjO0AUN023JKdxSGRhyziEaM19lAYdlWI4VZLL96v4OfsopzLytkkXEz9GbMJ3C4oPdTcciWYBPfEzTQu-A6-6okNWyKrPzS1IQnIOd0eWWagY8530dJXSdvrteuA/w640-h542/gulf%20of%20carpentaria.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Duke estimated that about 7,400 hectares (74 km2) of mangroves were lost. That would amount to no more than 2% of the total mangrove covered forests in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Mangroves are salt-tolerant shrubs and trees that grow in warm, coastal waters. The areas of severe dieback matched zonation contours, where higher elevations were drier and most vulnerable to sea level fall. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> In 2017, Duke published, “Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria: a severe ecosystem response, coincidental with an unusually extreme weather event”. He reported that mangrove diebacks “occurred when regional annual rainfall levels were low, temperatures were high and sea levels were notably lower at the time.” And those conditions correlated with “the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle for this region”. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> Although mangroves are tropical, and their expansion is linked to warmer conditions, and are known to be reasonably heat tolerant, Duke (2017) attempted to draw a connection with global warming, mentioning there were exceptionally high temperatures recorded at the time and “coincidental with heat-stressed coral bleaching”. Coral bleaching attributed to global warming was being tearfully pushed by Duke’s colleague Terry Hughes. Hughes’ catastrophic global warming narrative is now being refuted by the rapidly rebounding Great Barrier Reef corals. Such good news might be the driving force for Duke and the BBC to resurrect a catastrophic mangrove narrative to protect and support inane climate crisis narratives. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> Duke (2017) had noted mangrove losses and retreat were linked to drought,
decreased precipitation and temporary drops in sea level. All those weather conditions, including warmer temperatures due to reduced cloud cover, are all associated with El Nino events, as warm tropical waters slosh eastward across the Pacific. Falsely, the BBC, ABC and Duke are now oddly claiming the mangrove die-off and El Nino connection is newly discovered. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYNy5Uvu94AQ2t79K5VJG-G-n5X5YY09_S8jtvdWKgdNbKKGFgt7Wvo5p0-6uU-rZC_s7ASySXOS-OGCl5cfXF3I1cyXgvv_XlbJEZ1lB4VF-nzqNiAdTYRM2_Wfwk9PiU4-anfXePLSRuGqCrJGaysjhwI7DWoaHfpXnuB60PKdFbBkbPSB44NvEHQ/s646/BBC%20mangroves%20ENSO%20not%20recognized.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="358" data-original-width="646" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitYNy5Uvu94AQ2t79K5VJG-G-n5X5YY09_S8jtvdWKgdNbKKGFgt7Wvo5p0-6uU-rZC_s7ASySXOS-OGCl5cfXF3I1cyXgvv_XlbJEZ1lB4VF-nzqNiAdTYRM2_Wfwk9PiU4-anfXePLSRuGqCrJGaysjhwI7DWoaHfpXnuB60PKdFbBkbPSB44NvEHQ/w640-h354/BBC%20mangroves%20ENSO%20not%20recognized.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> But others had also reported the El Nino effect at least 5 years ago. Lovelock (2017) in Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels wrote “During El Niño, weak equatorial trade winds cause the thermocline to shoal in the tropical western Pacific and the presence of cool water results in sea levels that can be lower by 20–30 cm”. “Because both low sea level and low rainfall co-occur during El Niño years in the Indo-Pacific region, intensification of ENSO in the coming decades with climate change may be particularly unfavorable for productivity of mangrove forest ecosystems.” </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> Still the BBC and Duke doubled down on a climate crisis connection with transparent idiocy and sleight of hand. They seamlessly switched from blaming a natural fall in sea level for the die-off, to expressing concern that rising sea levels from global warming would hinder mangrove recovery. Yet that desperate claim is easily refuted, and in fact has been refuted already in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXUuijSW8ekEBFonsoC-oRD_7jx1NDtst9Ij8c7IG85SzpQ-C5kVLkKlz-WK8O5fD_GAIVTNpGtYoiNPkzr48FAmUnFWIGzfxhc1ogAqzaITyTE9iaqVpK0SVVPEkPs6o3vnOVv5YTx2-YNk2cTm25H_BRwbrH4rKm_5-hFEO7PHG5qXWiSJ8gek-Kgg/s642/mangrove%20bbc%20sea%20level%20rise.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="642" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXUuijSW8ekEBFonsoC-oRD_7jx1NDtst9Ij8c7IG85SzpQ-C5kVLkKlz-WK8O5fD_GAIVTNpGtYoiNPkzr48FAmUnFWIGzfxhc1ogAqzaITyTE9iaqVpK0SVVPEkPs6o3vnOVv5YTx2-YNk2cTm25H_BRwbrH4rKm_5-hFEO7PHG5qXWiSJ8gek-Kgg/w640-h358/mangrove%20bbc%20sea%20level%20rise.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> In 2016 Asbridge published “Mangrove response to environmental change in Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria”. That study concluded, “increased amounts of rainfall and associated flooding and sea level rise were responsible for recent seaward and landward extension of mangroves in this region.” For the period 1987–2014, “mangroves were observed to have extended seawards by up to 1.9 km (perpendicular to the coastline), with inland intrusion occurring along many of the rivers and rivulets in the tidal reaches.” </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> But such knowledge did not prevent Duke and the BBC from descending into the depths of stupidity and call for paradoxical, useless and expensive remedies to “save” the mangroves. Duke wants to water the mangroves from the air or from ships to prevent them from drying and dying. The rationale for such stupidity: mangroves store carbon. They worried that the mangrove die-off released “1 million tonnes of carbon into the air”, and the ABC added that’s the “equivalent to 1,000 jumbo jets flying return from Sydney to Paris.” But mangroves have naturally dried and died before. No wonder great scientists like Longhurst fear the current perversion of science driven by climate alarmism.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLcn130UULsEt4IKdygN0htNIomNiAOvxXBVHNZ1QdJYVhN2uMbEbZV-damJ-vcp_B_4d5Q5rYrQrtZKMz2qNc9ya_KhZNPNukreoWmueHr1LrgVMffTWx93ZXXFRHF_UyTR-aXwdSbU7bPBjK3zzHvL6F2Wx_rezH4PW78mBELVXuOjkt0thqsJx0gg/s646/Mangrove%20watering_Duke_2022.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="646" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLcn130UULsEt4IKdygN0htNIomNiAOvxXBVHNZ1QdJYVhN2uMbEbZV-damJ-vcp_B_4d5Q5rYrQrtZKMz2qNc9ya_KhZNPNukreoWmueHr1LrgVMffTWx93ZXXFRHF_UyTR-aXwdSbU7bPBjK3zzHvL6F2Wx_rezH4PW78mBELVXuOjkt0thqsJx0gg/w640-h356/Mangrove%20watering_Duke_2022.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-59562870940629296882022-07-31T18:29:00.040-07:002022-08-01T11:03:15.860-07:00Why the Sun, Not CO2, Heats the Oceans Revisiting the Debate: Does Greenhouse Back-radiation Warm the Oceans?<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="text-align: left;">Why </span><span style="text-align: left;">the Sun, Not CO2, Heats the Oceans </span></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">Revisiting the Debate: Does Greenhouse Back-radiation Warm the Oceans?</span></b></span></div><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: center;">This is the transcript for the video published on youtube </div></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large; text-align: left;">https://youtu.be/61VxYVIHW-U</span></div><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><br /></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigdjTecYh4ra70-V1TFFMvcX7GkvggFKf-Rw7-PK8JBZnNc6Tj9_6eCzv66wS6zsQ09d4lghFm4ztj7QQc0L8vgZUD_x4Crw2VBTlhZSAY8nH-VQyHSmrGI7v7BjpxgUia-oaz-hYyKH5rrBGUd-mM8F4NTnB4cKRF5ZkBao-ld3lscRg7xjphPZNAVQ/s1402/heating%20cooling%20thee%20ocean.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="1402" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigdjTecYh4ra70-V1TFFMvcX7GkvggFKf-Rw7-PK8JBZnNc6Tj9_6eCzv66wS6zsQ09d4lghFm4ztj7QQc0L8vgZUD_x4Crw2VBTlhZSAY8nH-VQyHSmrGI7v7BjpxgUia-oaz-hYyKH5rrBGUd-mM8F4NTnB4cKRF5ZkBao-ld3lscRg7xjphPZNAVQ/w640-h294/heating%20cooling%20thee%20ocean.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone.</span></span></div>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">About a decade ago there was a heated and unresolved debate on whether infrared back radiation from greenhouse gases is heating the oceans. Because infrared penetrates less than a millimeter into the ocean's surface, many skeptics argued it is impossible to blame rising CO2 for ocean warming. However, several prominent skeptic scientists, people who I have great respect for, also weighed in arguing it was silly and useless to argue infrared heat can't warm the ocean. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">After analyzing the physics detailed in this video, I’m convinced it is solar energy that drives the observed ocean heating, and any infrared ocean heating is insignificant at best. If this analysis holds, it is another significant strike against the prevailing CO2 driven global warming theory</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To ensure lay people are brought up to speed, here's a quick summary of where consensus climate science stands today. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFzl5J74ZiO5fTyC9zoBFs3FxEjYOe8r81uSA8JRvmpy4zYalNVrbRExVFpJQgKBs4QZ2kKONMVUX3-BUOdIHdS8ayAA8tyIgHpIKhT0fLQw_qoOQ7LELHyzAIRZ4CWPmdsYoAr4PqjAMj1Z1GE7NABxaWbOrSCV8anvGngQQuvqXXa3UwYJU7d-OFA/s468/stepherns%20highlighted%20eenergy%20budget.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFzl5J74ZiO5fTyC9zoBFs3FxEjYOe8r81uSA8JRvmpy4zYalNVrbRExVFpJQgKBs4QZ2kKONMVUX3-BUOdIHdS8ayAA8tyIgHpIKhT0fLQw_qoOQ7LELHyzAIRZ4CWPmdsYoAr4PqjAMj1Z1GE7NABxaWbOrSCV8anvGngQQuvqXXa3UwYJU7d-OFA/w640-h360/stepherns%20highlighted%20eenergy%20budget.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Climate scientists construct models of the earth's energy budget. The amount of energy absorbed by the earth or emitted back to space each second, is measured in Watts and is standardized for an area measuring one square meter.
For those unfamiliar with that measurement, simply understand that more Watts signify more energy. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The energy budget illustrated here was published by Stephens 2012. Others have slightly different numbers, but this illustration is one of the best because it is one of the few that lists the range of uncertainties in their measurements. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Because the sun's surface is so hot it emits high energy shortwave radiation. On average the earth warms as short waves add 75 Watts to the atmospheric water vapor while the earth's surfaces absorb about 160 Watts, totaling 240 Watts that are heating the earth's daytime climate. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">According to the Stefan-Boltzman law, and remember scientific laws are undisputed, when a surface is heated it causes that surface to respond immediately by releasing an equal amount of energy from that surface. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To maintain the earth's temperature balance, the 240 Watts of energy from the sun should cause the earth to emit 240 Watts back to space or transfer some of that energy from the surface into the oceans or soils. However, because the earth is so much cooler than the sun, it only emits that energy as longwave infrared waves, which interact very differently with the earth than the sun's shortwaves. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">While some longwaves can escape back to space unimpeded and at the speed of light, other longwaves can be absorbed by greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and water vapor. Greenhouse gases then re-emit that absorbed energy, and redirect half back towards the earth's surface. On average the earth's surface also absorbs an estimated 345 Watts of re-cycled longwave energy which counteracts the rate of cooling and prevents the earth's nighttime cooling from dropping to the point of global freezing. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">However, that longwave energy is not trapped, as many media headlines suggest. Eventually nearly all the energy from the sun escapes back to space. However, the best modeled energy budgets suggest that a slightly less amount of energy radiates back to space relative to what had originally entered from the sun. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Putting aside some large uncertainties, there appears to be a radiative imbalance of 0.6 Watts less energy leaving the earth than is added by the sun. Some researchers estimate that imbalance may be as high as one Watt. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">That imbalance does not violate the Stefan-Boltzmann law because that missing heat gets stored below the land surface or below the ocean surface, where the heat cannot radiate back to space in a timely manner.
</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There is no scientific disagreement that our oceans have been warming since the Little Ice Age ended around 1850 AD. What remains to be debated is, to what degree are oceans naturally warming due to storage of more shortwave energy from the sun, or due to storage of increased downward longwave energy emitted by rising carbon dioxide concentrations.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Some have argued, incorrectly, that the earth's land surface heats and cools the same as the oceans. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYwxHi4f_uY1bIhydGwQArnGOQKkkntj3hueSm_O2138qPq3JzV6N_mjjFrT6rtFVcrjqkMrvEZdD4AwmORvIqfTEBBI8Djf0DiErPdBr6IyTNmqX1o9b_zd4asDVdzdpeovkRaxdbeqkEjoARClF0htKXAY5DzxVM2e3NhdRpoYeD2Fy1b3bnCowrEg/s468/soil%20vs%20ocean%20heating.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYwxHi4f_uY1bIhydGwQArnGOQKkkntj3hueSm_O2138qPq3JzV6N_mjjFrT6rtFVcrjqkMrvEZdD4AwmORvIqfTEBBI8Djf0DiErPdBr6IyTNmqX1o9b_zd4asDVdzdpeovkRaxdbeqkEjoARClF0htKXAY5DzxVM2e3NhdRpoYeD2Fy1b3bnCowrEg/w640-h360/soil%20vs%20ocean%20heating.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">However, in contrast to the ocean, the suns' shortwave energy doesn’t penetrate soils much deeper than an inch. The combined heating from shortwave & longwave energy plus sensible heat transfer from warm air, increasingly heats soils at the surface reaching summertime highs. Then, primarily via conduction, surface heat slowly passes down the temperature gradient from the warm surface to cooler depths in accord with the second law of thermodynamics. Heat transfer via conduction is slow, so temperatures can remain 8ºC (15 º F) cooler just 10 inches (25 centimeters) below the surface. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">During the winter, the colder surface reverses that temperature gradient, so that stored summer heat travels via conduction back to the surface. Again, because surface cooling happens quickly and conduction happens slowly, the deeper soil remains warmer than the surface soil. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Greenhouse longwave energy penetrates only a few microns into the ocean surface and even less into most soils, but the sun's shortwave energy passes much more deeply into the ocean. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">More energetic shortwaves like blue light can penetrate over 100 meters (that’s about 4000 inches) into clear ocean water, with only half its energy absorbed within the first 20 meters. In contrast 50% of less energetic red light is absorbed in just the first few meters. That's why seaweeds in the deeper ocean cannot use red light to photosynthesize like land plants do. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Although both the heating of the land and ocean depends on surface heating, radiative and convective heating are much more important for heating the ocean. This causes important differences in the way our oceans heat and cool, thus analogies to land surface heating are misleading. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This standard, albeit overly simplistic ocean temperature profile, shows the upper layer of the ocean, often referred to as the epipelagic layer or sunlight layer, extends from the surface to 200 meters depth. Turbulence due to winds and currents mixes and homogenizes the temperature as illustrated here and globally averages 13°C or (55 °F). </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs9MISqKcJRNCRyyZqtn5v2A3hy8ZT-0AOAk9FYouUtQ1BgOVD6dPl1EwaMfHrNYIkgrxW3pCDuOSjSkWPq4zy_v8NAOgGYwLwCjzwsd-DIuZohCJV3fZx_Z-lhgQPrTCUcq7XCIUdEgpQcHjbELXtHXe7g-shrdHUMSn8YFWYD0y6Dhgq5hZCDT6PiA/s468/thermocline%20nasa.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs9MISqKcJRNCRyyZqtn5v2A3hy8ZT-0AOAk9FYouUtQ1BgOVD6dPl1EwaMfHrNYIkgrxW3pCDuOSjSkWPq4zy_v8NAOgGYwLwCjzwsd-DIuZohCJV3fZx_Z-lhgQPrTCUcq7XCIUdEgpQcHjbELXtHXe7g-shrdHUMSn8YFWYD0y6Dhgq5hZCDT6PiA/w640-h360/thermocline%20nasa.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Below that mixed surface layer is the thermocline layer, defined as a region of rapidly cooling temperatures, because mixing of warm surface heat into the layers below rapidly declines with depth. . </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">At a depth of about 1000 meters and below there is a more homogeneous temperature of just 4°C or 39°F
However, the illustrated homogeneous upper sunlight layer obscures the most important dynamics of the oceans' surface skin layer that are key to controlling ocean heating and cooling. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">A 2018 paper by Wong & Minett analyzed ocean temperatures from data collected during 2 ocean cruises in warm tropical and subtropical waters of the north Atlantic. They reported important differences in heating and cooling patterns in the microns-thick surface skin layer and millimeter thick subsurface layers. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPoZmS_E1pggnoYVQWiP4dHQjvOjZnu-r9Oca3A8KyWQksfwN6Y51ucZMbQQCuDiwCDConBp0zkeNhBOhYHcxxTVB9OBoLsVyJl24VQ1bAvcjZY15DTWa1M5BETXeY7qg8IbqKYb5286fNe9gi53ey3-YANmtEakkCoDQUuN6C1yPKFzjmvJOfoGwG-A/s468/W%20&M%20surface%20skin%20solar%20heat.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPoZmS_E1pggnoYVQWiP4dHQjvOjZnu-r9Oca3A8KyWQksfwN6Y51ucZMbQQCuDiwCDConBp0zkeNhBOhYHcxxTVB9OBoLsVyJl24VQ1bAvcjZY15DTWa1M5BETXeY7qg8IbqKYb5286fNe9gi53ey3-YANmtEakkCoDQUuN6C1yPKFzjmvJOfoGwG-A/w640-h360/W%20&M%20surface%20skin%20solar%20heat.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">For perspective, the sharpened point of a pencil is about one millimeter wide. It takes one thousand microns to equal just one millimeter. The ocean’s surface gatekeeper is only a couple of microns thick. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Only 4.9 Watts per meter squared of solar energy was absorbed in the first 10 microns. . </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast, the subsurface was increasingly heated, so by 10 millimeters deep, 261 Watts of solar energy were absorbed. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Only at the surface can any ocean heat be released back to the atmosphere or space. So, this differential solar heating creates the required temperature gradient that allows the solar heated subsurface water to constantly move up towards the cooler surface. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Heating by longwave energy adds another complication that must be considered. Longwave energy only penetrates the first few microns of the skin layer. And that fact prompts some skeptics to argue CO2 back radiation cannot heat the ocean. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">But on the other side of the debate, it is argued that because longwave heating can add 100 times more energy into the skin layer than solar heating, longwave heating can alter and even reverse the temperature gradient required for ocean cooling. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">But if true, then how does the ocean ever lose heat. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Nonetheless, the alarmist narrative becomes that added infrared energy must alter the temperature gradient to some degree. Therefore, as more greenhouse gases add more longwave energy to the surface skin layer, it increasingly disrupts the temperature gradient enough to reduce the rate of subsurface cooling. So, rising CO2 is indirectly warming the ocean. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">But measurements do not support such narratives. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Satellite measurements determined the oceans' surface temperature by measuring the longwave radiation emitted from the skin layer. The sub-skin layer below was also measured but via emitted microwaves. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The results show the ocean's skin layer is always cooler than subsurface layers below, despite the combined surface warming by shortwave and longwave heating plus rising heat from solar heated waters below</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxtx4C0Wiq6jXtjWLMmC7JPoDYPlatQCYTGa3-87vo-uI-fODAZ70tVXbWEHgBCHox6iZ09PNQ8bJ-vFkQu7zhBdEbQne1_kRQbztkjbNS2CM_n7d-f3PXc4iOR-5JvslJroHjOS_Qc5aLVkHqbTQ2WDzF3KINbuM1DeAJEG83kkX2lhXv9Su_8BT1Bg/s468/W%20&%20M%20day%20noght%20cooling%20skin%20surface.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxtx4C0Wiq6jXtjWLMmC7JPoDYPlatQCYTGa3-87vo-uI-fODAZ70tVXbWEHgBCHox6iZ09PNQ8bJ-vFkQu7zhBdEbQne1_kRQbztkjbNS2CM_n7d-f3PXc4iOR-5JvslJroHjOS_Qc5aLVkHqbTQ2WDzF3KINbuM1DeAJEG83kkX2lhXv9Su_8BT1Bg/w640-h360/W%20&%20M%20day%20noght%20cooling%20skin%20surface.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In the daytime, there is a deeper solar heated diurnal warm layer. At night, without solar heating, subsurface waters eventually cool and mix with the water below creating a more homogeneous upper layer temperature everywhere except in the cooler skin surface. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">No matter the season, or time of day the skin layer is always cooler than the waters immediately below.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Although not intuitive, the constant cool skin surface phenomenon can be explained by the Stefan-Boltzman law. According to that law, when the skin surface layer is heated, by longwave or shortwave energy, the surface skin layer radiates an equal amount of energy back to the atmosphere immediately. Any longwave heating of the skin surface layer is so transitory there is no observable effect on the temperature gradient that's required to cool the ocean's solar heated sub-surface layers. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">As Wong & Minett's results illustrated, the micron thick skin layer absorbed 410 Watts of longwave and a negligible amount of shortwave, but simultaneously emitted 470 Watts out of the ocean, maintaining the observed cooler skin layer. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The 470 Watts of longwave-out vs 410 Watts of longwave-in does not violate the Stefan-Boltzman law because the skin surface heating is the combined result of warming from 67 Watts of solar heated water rising from below and the downward longwave radiation from above. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizc7leOvmb5A_KpXnp7gXm-0bbD5WQTbIzpfJXbtpfpH6dVU00S6Rw87LX6uBah--qwWr9V46mFDriR8LJ5jiRhpehHWDoocvjd-JT00rNYNf-Me9YFxc4ZWeKkqle7L-S8x1h3GbXBgvqee4Zv3pR2lm2F3RLXTj9TM9x-QOq00h7wUOdkGrEEcCB3Q/s468/W&M%20LW%20in%20LW%20out%20cloudy%20vs%20clear.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizc7leOvmb5A_KpXnp7gXm-0bbD5WQTbIzpfJXbtpfpH6dVU00S6Rw87LX6uBah--qwWr9V46mFDriR8LJ5jiRhpehHWDoocvjd-JT00rNYNf-Me9YFxc4ZWeKkqle7L-S8x1h3GbXBgvqee4Zv3pR2lm2F3RLXTj9TM9x-QOq00h7wUOdkGrEEcCB3Q/w640-h360/W&M%20LW%20in%20LW%20out%20cloudy%20vs%20clear.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">That combined heating also caused the skin surface to lose a total of 7 Watts more from sensible heat loss to the cooler air above via conduction, and more latent heat due to evaporation from the skin surface. Thus, on average the skin surface cooling balances skin surface heating, but the skin surface remains slightly cooler because it radiates heat away faster than subsurface heat can rise from below. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Still their data raises one concern. It is very unusual that their estimated heat loss via sensible and latent heat was a mere 7 Watts of cooling. That is 15 times less than globally averaged ocean cooling rates. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It is well established, that the energy needed to evaporate enough water that's observed in the earth's water cycle, oceans must experience over 80 Watts per meter squared of evaporative cooling. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Acknowledging the conundrum that those longwave energies do not penetrate deeper than a few microns and thus cannot warm the oceans directly, the stated intent of Wong & Minett's analysis was to advance their hypothesis that more co2 longwave energy can still warm the ocean indirectly by reducing the temperature gradient and thus, reduce the rate of cooling of the ocean's diurnal warm layer. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">To support their claim, they argued the absorption of more longwave into the skin layer, did not result in the required increased surface temperature that would immediately increase emissions and balance the longwave energy surface budget. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">To that end, they examined the increased longwave heating produced on cloudy days as an analog for the effects of increased longwave heating from rising carbon dioxide. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Their highlighted results illustrated here, show that despite an increase of 40 Watts of longwave heating from cloudy skies, there was no increased cooling via emitted longwave-out and no increased loss of sensible and latent heat so the cooling temperature gradient must have been disrupted. But that would violate the Stefan-Boltzman law, their narrative requires magical thinking. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In reality the Stefan-Boltzman law was never violated. It was simply a bad narrative. Although increased cloud cover did increase longwave heating, cloud cover simultaneously reduced the shortwave solar heating of the layers below the skin surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The reason 40 increased Watts of incoming longwave did not also increase outgoing longwave is due to the fact that clouds equally reduced the solar heating of subsurface waters. When long wave and shortwave heating are both considered, the balance between incoming and outgoing heat at the skin surface was maintained as predicted by the Stefan-Boltzman law. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg68Bqy-_0BL5_WIPouC-zrevJ81mfvMLGnmaURRltpn2rXvXMn7AVqH6X5JWS5tAovURmuRYVOuoK2S3d_BJzKK9-wQtt05_pQfO_MvOb72dgf0XPhKypTBaIKz8OF-3PBwlXVS7QS3jc1vRqOpNefeEKjAYNp5ysEu65EISjzgGoeuvHq9VnngAC2gg/s468/cool%20skin%20surfac%20mixinge%20.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg68Bqy-_0BL5_WIPouC-zrevJ81mfvMLGnmaURRltpn2rXvXMn7AVqH6X5JWS5tAovURmuRYVOuoK2S3d_BJzKK9-wQtt05_pQfO_MvOb72dgf0XPhKypTBaIKz8OF-3PBwlXVS7QS3jc1vRqOpNefeEKjAYNp5ysEu65EISjzgGoeuvHq9VnngAC2gg/w640-h360/cool%20skin%20surfac%20mixinge%20.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Others have argued that warmth generated by longwave heating of the skin surface would be transported quickly downward by mixing with layers below. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, downward mixing of the observed cooler skin layer would only cool the warmer subsurface layers. While any mixing that brings warmer subsurface water up to the surface, only enhances its cooling. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Only the mixing of deeper solar- heated subsurface waters with the cooler waters below, carries heat deeper into the ocean. The mixing of solar heated water into deeper layers, then makes solar heat less likely to resurface and cool. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus, it is the downward mixing of solar heated waters, not the transitory longwave heating of the skin surface layer that stores energy in the ocean and creates the estimated energy imbalance. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Taking a broader global view, analyses of heat flux into and out of the world's oceans illustrates where the oceans are warming. Huang's (2015) illustration of ocean heat flux contradicts claims that a thickening global blanket of CO2 is heating the world's oceans. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Nearly half of the ocean surfaces, regions colored green, show no net heat flux into or out from the ocean. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The regions of greatest heat flux into the ocean are colored red. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There, the intense tropical heating is further amplified by the reduced cloudiness observed in the tropics, as published in Fasullo and Trenberth’s 2008 study. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Furthermore, the tropical trade winds cause greater upwelling of cold deep water in the eastern Atlantic and eastern Pacific. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Colder waters on the surface can reverse the typical heat flux so that heat flows from the warmer air above into those colder upwelled waters. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUUmfY_77Sz6aL3HvAIfddGSDKh9ZwkD7XatdiNUOt6R7vToRVCug11WMCBbUINy-0C5W7R-6Ivg77w2QDE2uAId_RSnxNWvAb0gp09x2PJ6lodnNffyyutudQwSjV1x7dMZmToLxsJROJ17FYjSLhoGrh288J3dmCaEkoyectt6j2OWWEyLAaDVLbhA/s468/huang%20surface%20heat%20and%20cool.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUUmfY_77Sz6aL3HvAIfddGSDKh9ZwkD7XatdiNUOt6R7vToRVCug11WMCBbUINy-0C5W7R-6Ivg77w2QDE2uAId_RSnxNWvAb0gp09x2PJ6lodnNffyyutudQwSjV1x7dMZmToLxsJROJ17FYjSLhoGrh288J3dmCaEkoyectt6j2OWWEyLAaDVLbhA/w640-h360/huang%20surface%20heat%20and%20cool.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The obvious clue to the primary driver of ocean warming is that the regions of greatest solar flux into the ocean are the same regions created by pacific and Atlantic La Ninas. That solar heated water is transported westward and then poleward along ocean currents where the greatest amount heat is vented, (colored dark blue.
The Holocene optimum, with temperatures warmer than today happened during perpetual La Nina conditions. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">For details on how a solar heated ocean causes our current warming trend, please watch my earlier video: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMH_K8IF-1s&t=246s" target="_blank">Global Warming Driven by Pacific Warm Pool, La Nina & ITCZ: an alternative climate change theory</a> or read its <a href="https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2022/01/how-global-warming-is-driven-by-pacific.html" target="_blank">transcript. </a></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">To date there has been no provable mechanism illustrating how heating from CO2 can heat anything more than the ocean's skin surface. In contrast the combined climate effects of solar heating, the ITCZ migrations and La Ninas are strongly supported in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5ER9ELoMgCcYFTPsQsACde58V8oA9ixiMKXLf5b4ygvFAzpbf5Q7fqyWtUVDy8P05RQAQTl93XhrG20gBoYA3ZNmT7dpdEBTs08c3wnWmlU3WrJI2Sit9ne-RIYVA2S8Q9WASWEPTOXesQf_uI_m4bcqJM5iZrn0kk7bsTMlfvi51OINRTStUdtCVog/s468/oceans%20not%20boiling.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5ER9ELoMgCcYFTPsQsACde58V8oA9ixiMKXLf5b4ygvFAzpbf5Q7fqyWtUVDy8P05RQAQTl93XhrG20gBoYA3ZNmT7dpdEBTs08c3wnWmlU3WrJI2Sit9ne-RIYVA2S8Q9WASWEPTOXesQf_uI_m4bcqJM5iZrn0kk7bsTMlfvi51OINRTStUdtCVog/w640-h360/oceans%20not%20boiling.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So, I will ignore the click bait news media's fear mongering that our oceans are "on the boil" due to rising CO2. There is simply no scientific proof to support such dishonest narratives. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And I will sleep well. There is no climate crisis. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSQfJSDdIRGa9-0y3bVAyzhNJO4dUKaiWKqFRTlBaT6ac9XTED4y49khPC7RUUZiqDU4LHRANj2HvK8_sKNSSXeIe0X15vaN10cf_vVmIA48W3GrxrRYh_F6BTSnfPyNG2Gxn0wvItlnnhgYcNaAUQHvathAF71jMqdJHgBfvCRGQfNQyzfmAW1D6p4A/s468/shun%20group%20think%20huxley.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSQfJSDdIRGa9-0y3bVAyzhNJO4dUKaiWKqFRTlBaT6ac9XTED4y49khPC7RUUZiqDU4LHRANj2HvK8_sKNSSXeIe0X15vaN10cf_vVmIA48W3GrxrRYh_F6BTSnfPyNG2Gxn0wvItlnnhgYcNaAUQHvathAF71jMqdJHgBfvCRGQfNQyzfmAW1D6p4A/w640-h360/shun%20group%20think%20huxley.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Our democracy depends on a diverse array of good critical thinkers. So, please shun mindless group think. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Instead embrace renowned scientist, Thomas Huxley’s advice
Skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin. </span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And if you appreciate the science clearly presented here, science rarely presented by mainstream media then please</span></div><p></p>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-7104961573545823842022-07-13T12:47:00.097-07:002022-07-13T15:29:25.578-07:00Attenborough’s “Breaking Boundaries” documentary; Distorting Science to Shill for One World Government<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGTWTKeZbWMe92nVdG2aRPn4jOb1CeNY3sHMwTIC_2RbYo7nJN_Wg1s3eo9GIkwUrd5qBIc_wUUKliiAfS7UxvdY7HVGzl63iVvU7UZdcE69mtpWTRzxFMof0el25vNHyCgIQNqhof8LdnEbjVgZUpSf8LpNAdbmbgn32c_H9h3SwXxq47A4l0jdyzAA/s713/attenborough.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="713" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGTWTKeZbWMe92nVdG2aRPn4jOb1CeNY3sHMwTIC_2RbYo7nJN_Wg1s3eo9GIkwUrd5qBIc_wUUKliiAfS7UxvdY7HVGzl63iVvU7UZdcE69mtpWTRzxFMof0el25vNHyCgIQNqhof8LdnEbjVgZUpSf8LpNAdbmbgn32c_H9h3SwXxq47A4l0jdyzAA/w640-h406/attenborough.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Below is thee transcript for </span><span style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><b>Attenborough’s <a href="https://youtu.be/w8IbgqVgxP8" target="_blank">“Breaking Boundaries” documentary; Distorting Science to Shill for One World Government</a></b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">View at <a href="https://youtu.be/w8IbgqVgxP8">https://youtu.be/w8IbgqVgxP8</a></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Today I will look at how one of my environmental heroes is now betraying the science.
When I taught ecological classes, I would eagerly incorporate many of Attenborough’s beautiful wildlife videos. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But after just recently viewing his 2021 video, "Breaking Boundaries: the science of our planet", I’ve been disturbed, to see Attenborough’s magnificent cinematography increasingly used to distort the science, instill fear and shill for “a globalist agenda”</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The video alternates between parallel narratives from Attenborough and narratives by a Swedish scientist, Johan Rockstrum. Together they pushed a myth that we are turning a planet that was once our friend, into a planet that is our foe. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDoGY-QZ0MQ4On5RVN69ONtmDi1YKg1SJHQTcPcfzu6Kv3EzR8xtV2ZPdpJuKmmgIAq6mA0zhPRJmXg5CgS9Uy_OtQJvlX--5o5BlWMD0RK0H6mgLuGT5B4ColHXDoq51_OGogJQgQYDkXso-bSdHHqg1Q0QB0qD_uF4EXCmTQ03o20pmbN2hOAjEE7g/s1920/BreakingBoundaries_Giraffe_16x9_Post%20(1).webp" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDoGY-QZ0MQ4On5RVN69ONtmDi1YKg1SJHQTcPcfzu6Kv3EzR8xtV2ZPdpJuKmmgIAq6mA0zhPRJmXg5CgS9Uy_OtQJvlX--5o5BlWMD0RK0H6mgLuGT5B4ColHXDoq51_OGogJQgQYDkXso-bSdHHqg1Q0QB0qD_uF4EXCmTQ03o20pmbN2hOAjEE7g/w640-h360/BreakingBoundaries_Giraffe_16x9_Post%20(1).webp" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But anyone with the least amount of knowledge about earth's history knows the earth has always been both friend and foe to wildlife and humanity. Deadly weather commonly unleashed throughout history, eliminated all that did not adapt, causing mass extinctions and collapsing civilizations. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Oddly, Attenborough argues that by simply adhering to globalist Johan Rockstrum’s planetary boundaries, we can save the world. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And like all demagogues and false prophets, he offers a utopian fantasy that his guidelines ensure the earth remains the "<b>perfect home</b>.” </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEaLUeSuljfQHqI1AEjIJn0rfZny8MJH40tyDbPXF0dXwOwAaHKGUVpDekTzXNEhi8BLdeX9tZndwL2RD5y72ngn_QSj0NyLqNYzKljvODeuceQcFjX1aDEjORb5R_jrMxj1FcsjyJQ3uSxZuix-vp0or6LYJ-uKmOBo7Cj0r_XLAClCt2bf1L5jPTJg/s1052/100,000%20year%20tempertures%20%20holocen%20e%20highlight.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="1052" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEaLUeSuljfQHqI1AEjIJn0rfZny8MJH40tyDbPXF0dXwOwAaHKGUVpDekTzXNEhi8BLdeX9tZndwL2RD5y72ngn_QSj0NyLqNYzKljvODeuceQcFjX1aDEjORb5R_jrMxj1FcsjyJQ3uSxZuix-vp0or6LYJ-uKmOBo7Cj0r_XLAClCt2bf1L5jPTJg/w640-h182/100,000%20year%20tempertures%20%20holocen%20e%20highlight.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Attenborough and Rockstrum begin by suggesting that this graph of Greenland’s ice core temperatures is science’s most important and most relevant for guiding human civilization. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Rockstrum points to the great instability of temperatures over the past 100,000 years during the last glacial maximum. The numbered peaks are Dansgaard–Oeschger events, caused when accumulating ocean heat that had been transported from the tropics into the Arctic, periodically melted enough of the insulating ice to let heat ventilate, causing temperatures to rapidly rise by 10 ºC (18 ºF) in just 10 years.
That instability, Rockstrum claimed caused great environmental hardships for humans. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But during the most recent 11,7000 years, a period called the Holocene, the average temperature stabilized, and varied only by plus or minus 1 °C. However they don’t mention that stability was due to less ice. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Despite the fact that humans did not create the Holocene, they suggest humans can now magically maintain the Holocene’s stable climate, if only we follow Rockstrum’s guidelines and keep the earth within his so-called 1 ºC planetary boundary. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOjo7gE6KyhR0-cDrnD4L7nSHE3B6r6vtjbY-0RjVvBCIOpNAp9Kff1sB-RuSF2lxj1y5Owhj-79Dsj4FZc9N914usOyotmm4l9O41FuyuC-hqOnIeJPgeerDbZ0BNqzIJNH6csgFDB8wzEL-jIhBSHmSzmQGE6zvht4U_oSjjRhaXaEv9H9UjSchTXw/s966/anthropocene%20skull.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="966" data-original-width="774" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOjo7gE6KyhR0-cDrnD4L7nSHE3B6r6vtjbY-0RjVvBCIOpNAp9Kff1sB-RuSF2lxj1y5Owhj-79Dsj4FZc9N914usOyotmm4l9O41FuyuC-hqOnIeJPgeerDbZ0BNqzIJNH6csgFDB8wzEL-jIhBSHmSzmQGE6zvht4U_oSjjRhaXaEv9H9UjSchTXw/w512-h640/anthropocene%20skull.jpg" width="512" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Attenborough repeats a false narrative that he frequently espouses, bemoaning,
"The Holocene has ended. The garden of Eden is no more. We have changed the world so much that scientists say we are in a new geological age: the Anthropocene, the age of humans"</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Therefore, to prevent further catastrophes and return to Eden our “immediate priority, is to reduce carbon emissions to zero and stabilize temperatures as low as we possibly can” </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast, according to the executive committee of the International Union of Geological Sciences, the official group of scientists who define the earth’s geological ages, the Holocene has not ended. And despite political efforts by some scientists to declare the Anthropocene as an official age in order to highlight humanity's negative impacts, there has yet to be any consensus on the proposal that the Holocene has ended. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP_YGb8iJQqZqcgs3OB1iJZBtZZgkV_-bDljUppxbtAZOp5TACe3jPrCu9xVAO0m3z6AWoSfhZ3STy9zCvxNx3CUFrZ9_kGBeqY6isNllDciS-qytSGhLjZcqZuNB9zsA8S6AC9azWSVnMQVHUgP4yuD281H47poAcvqJ33pDIxVDyShUGFXdpk_4ZUQ/s4372/Hlocene%20geological%20ages.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1067" data-original-width="4372" height="156" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP_YGb8iJQqZqcgs3OB1iJZBtZZgkV_-bDljUppxbtAZOp5TACe3jPrCu9xVAO0m3z6AWoSfhZ3STy9zCvxNx3CUFrZ9_kGBeqY6isNllDciS-qytSGhLjZcqZuNB9zsA8S6AC9azWSVnMQVHUgP4yuD281H47poAcvqJ33pDIxVDyShUGFXdpk_4ZUQ/w640-h156/Hlocene%20geological%20ages.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Instead of formalizing the Anthropocene, the International Union of Geological Sciences officially defined 3 distinct ages of the Holocene
The first 2 ages are defined by dramatic changes in Greenland’s ice core. Accordingly, the Greenlandian Age began 11,700 years ago marking the end of the last glacial maximum, the re-arrangement of ocean and atmospheric circulation and a rapid warming of about 10 degrees Celsius.
Furthermore, the transition from the Pleistocene’s last glacial maximum into the Holocene resulted in one of the world’s greatest mass extinctions, mostly of large animals, and the loss of biodiversity. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast to Attenborough’s stable Garden of Eden, Greenland’s ice cores also reveal just how unstable the Holocene climate has truly been. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIpKQOZtw4mmnPkKaGmmc2g4tuwytMbxq2nUP4kH9vpJtwuchadfk-9zxqzPsoO7es25DRqxH4NHfE4GNS-Rhc8f6kuGueH0cr9PArkNA-av47JDYpWSV55HGhnFzwP4UKNcw74GuNQVK14NHngzDMizykAu7liPPjsdEKxYdFdxSAuYLC8EwaO7xJ4g/s1874/Ice%20core%20temps%20highlight%20meghalayan.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1127" data-original-width="1874" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIpKQOZtw4mmnPkKaGmmc2g4tuwytMbxq2nUP4kH9vpJtwuchadfk-9zxqzPsoO7es25DRqxH4NHfE4GNS-Rhc8f6kuGueH0cr9PArkNA-av47JDYpWSV55HGhnFzwP4UKNcw74GuNQVK14NHngzDMizykAu7liPPjsdEKxYdFdxSAuYLC8EwaO7xJ4g/w640-h384/Ice%20core%20temps%20highlight%20meghalayan.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Northgrippian Age, named after the location of one ice core, began when temperatures plummeted to the lowest point in the entire Holocene 8,200 years ago. Temperatures then rose, reaching 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer than today, that warm period has been informally called the Holocene Climate Optimum. Then a cooling and drying trend occurred that established many of the world's deserts. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The most recent period, the Meghalayan began 4,200 years ago marked by a 200-year global mega-drought that collapsed many Eurasian civilizations, as well as a megadrought in sparsely populated North America, stretching from Massachusetts to Idaho. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Indeed, it has been droughts and famine, during cooling trends that have destabilized the environment and human civilizations. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Meghalayan’s cooling trend was interrupted by warm spikes lasting several decades such as the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods. In addition, more intense El Nino and La Nina events evolved. Such instability has made it difficult for scientists to determine if recent extreme weather events are just more of the same, or perhaps signal an end of the Holocene and the start of the Anthropocene. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbKi5qNetH7gKLjFEbduMxd9VqHcatHARtsKe8DHthWuBQNp2DbIJ6KxBdpT_1d7qp4FpVRAA55zqkNG5n-wpHqvgZdaPl7xUgOrUGTIcMBkJqMCZgS4yYDk570ibJK66VYjAhWpG7ETgmRe2PtbVPP2M9Wy0pjzCQkNLCJUfEfs1C5QeA9wJqs6V0DA/s2895/lion%20antelope%20grassland.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="879" data-original-width="2895" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbKi5qNetH7gKLjFEbduMxd9VqHcatHARtsKe8DHthWuBQNp2DbIJ6KxBdpT_1d7qp4FpVRAA55zqkNG5n-wpHqvgZdaPl7xUgOrUGTIcMBkJqMCZgS4yYDk570ibJK66VYjAhWpG7ETgmRe2PtbVPP2M9Wy0pjzCQkNLCJUfEfs1C5QeA9wJqs6V0DA/w640-h194/lion%20antelope%20grassland.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the Greenlandian Age, the Sahara was a rich grassland with scattered shallow lakes, supporting a wealth of wildlife that supported several tribes of hunters and gatherers.
Those stone age people celebrated that abundance of wildlife in numerous cave paintings</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcJbmmD4dsB8fjDthCU6KZQpJW21zR9OSBKzpY2V2OxD3cP_uNS3yPO1aIoSSmgkP0JKw2fQkKrQfh59YK2CnjNLd0tMBbczq8NW-LNJK11s7XW7o1sbyB_YamI-2XpHZPa9ejY_L6jg7qPfO7qwzZWYf6RGN2mPd0txpmh1j9dt7AVyQ7EFgx-cQMDw/s1824/green%20sahara%20painintomgs.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="920" data-original-width="1824" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcJbmmD4dsB8fjDthCU6KZQpJW21zR9OSBKzpY2V2OxD3cP_uNS3yPO1aIoSSmgkP0JKw2fQkKrQfh59YK2CnjNLd0tMBbczq8NW-LNJK11s7XW7o1sbyB_YamI-2XpHZPa9ejY_L6jg7qPfO7qwzZWYf6RGN2mPd0txpmh1j9dt7AVyQ7EFgx-cQMDw/w640-h322/green%20sahara%20painintomgs.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But around 6000 years ago as rainfall decreased, the green Sahara transitioned to the Sahara Desert, again greatly reducing biodiversity, and forcing humans to seek more hospitable conditions elsewhere. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAxzvyWNRs7e4fk9F5aCIOsnUWP2yx-OqMcbyNELMc6KA2m6rLmaFcF7nIetlL4D_0H3LCbo_t9AfxQyl0QdupnaXP-Y4nfQBM26-TFy9gf80zvlwqsy82VDvkXds1ZKjqKfZwLyKEUfLQotX5WZft6dhUU5TAbC0cyx7yWVXgLq9olY_5M7V0SZIUOQ/s558/sahara%20desert.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="558" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAxzvyWNRs7e4fk9F5aCIOsnUWP2yx-OqMcbyNELMc6KA2m6rLmaFcF7nIetlL4D_0H3LCbo_t9AfxQyl0QdupnaXP-Y4nfQBM26-TFy9gf80zvlwqsy82VDvkXds1ZKjqKfZwLyKEUfLQotX5WZft6dhUU5TAbC0cyx7yWVXgLq9olY_5M7V0SZIUOQ/w640-h342/sahara%20desert.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Sahara’s reduced rainfall was largely caused by a shift in the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. The location of the greatest solar heating within the global tropics, causes intense currents of rising air which then draw in moist surface air from the north and south via the Trade Winds, and concentrates that moisture where the winds converge. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3g7dI1TueyJENUIVko9CZC37dlgVAGKdHTddr-F3ZP1ePBBljf6ek9cDpc79ve6z8AeeQ2i5_oo3uTKQA0T5d4JfWdOPZyHu9tXvAl5LSDNsq3DBMgep390ohldSavZ-up43cd5voMS07USV9aVr9GM7XsvBEGlYYjaZB7Wq19OTlnyMETQFSoyPgCg/s814/itcz%20circulation.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="814" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3g7dI1TueyJENUIVko9CZC37dlgVAGKdHTddr-F3ZP1ePBBljf6ek9cDpc79ve6z8AeeQ2i5_oo3uTKQA0T5d4JfWdOPZyHu9tXvAl5LSDNsq3DBMgep390ohldSavZ-up43cd5voMS07USV9aVr9GM7XsvBEGlYYjaZB7Wq19OTlnyMETQFSoyPgCg/w640-h348/itcz%20circulation.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As the moist air rises, cools and condenses, that moisture rains out, bringing a heavy rainy season to the land below. The remaining dry air continues to circulate, eventually sinking further to the north and south, bringing deserts and arid climates to those regions below. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The ITCZ moves seasonally with the sun
Bringing a rainy season to the tropics north of the equator during June and July, while simultaneously causing a tropical dry season south of the equator. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHek4Y5-9P-jto_KXfClxRWKs_nF0A-aP84jvD3XzGehgb2UXy5aeA_eCXdRC9vavpK1ME4NQq9RPxTKQqWc7esQJs84HeKlpft3MG_xs6AyET68Jy7_bOql3ZsyUasBzar2bpGUDVSf5QLxzFwD19X3uKUM7oXM4L6tvLV3TC4ZjL53nagQrBDxSiwg/s1070/itcz%20seasonal%20migration.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="426" data-original-width="1070" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHek4Y5-9P-jto_KXfClxRWKs_nF0A-aP84jvD3XzGehgb2UXy5aeA_eCXdRC9vavpK1ME4NQq9RPxTKQqWc7esQJs84HeKlpft3MG_xs6AyET68Jy7_bOql3ZsyUasBzar2bpGUDVSf5QLxzFwD19X3uKUM7oXM4L6tvLV3TC4ZjL53nagQrBDxSiwg/w640-h254/itcz%20seasonal%20migration.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By December and January, the ITCZ has brought a rainy season south of the equator, leaving a dry season to the north</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In addition, the ITCZ also migrates over millennia due to the sun's orbital cycles.
Throughout the Holocene, the ITCZ has exhibited a trend that has continuously contracted southward, and it is that migration that reduced the rains that once supported a green Sahara. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha9VNW6g3V_M8lpIKcrZf3eZmPjFxtmDn4NDtMUo8NmDz_zlYclr8Omw9mPYqscrBXQitDjcWIuoKGFBvFzz0o7Kdxi9TLGC8qc350aHcF9foBnSzreVP-_sSJDtPgZ-go8SoYyNzmBD4TIIG6LMD76Rvuu2oTnxEOKH26oC1YrFomD4buYyN--afbhA/s2080/holocene%20itcz%20shift.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="980" data-original-width="2080" height="302" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha9VNW6g3V_M8lpIKcrZf3eZmPjFxtmDn4NDtMUo8NmDz_zlYclr8Omw9mPYqscrBXQitDjcWIuoKGFBvFzz0o7Kdxi9TLGC8qc350aHcF9foBnSzreVP-_sSJDtPgZ-go8SoYyNzmBD4TIIG6LMD76Rvuu2oTnxEOKH26oC1YrFomD4buYyN--afbhA/w640-h302/holocene%20itcz%20shift.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In response to the Holocene’s drying trends, humans either perished or moved to the great river valleys where ample water enabled civilizations to continue.
Great civilizations emerged in the mid Holocene along China's Yellow River, within India and Pakistan’s Indus River Valley, and along Egypt’s Nile River.
Great Stone Age civilizations emerged in Mesopotamia along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieBEvXvw45HTi03kaP_nJ8MsejvTWQcMzJ-VhDJhF6kbjn1tQuMobBBlROzXCHH6owaJuNNb3Ez-FZtTZYfwvqiTTSl3QN-rgyCQNtAYPkRWEBHvk5ByrNdGqXuNx1iORry53Rm_xbljyM9DC3pX7KsRd3j54V4OZpMWCC8vugAn4m8waYDALf5uwJjg/s4097/Akkadian%20empire.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1251" data-original-width="4097" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieBEvXvw45HTi03kaP_nJ8MsejvTWQcMzJ-VhDJhF6kbjn1tQuMobBBlROzXCHH6owaJuNNb3Ez-FZtTZYfwvqiTTSl3QN-rgyCQNtAYPkRWEBHvk5ByrNdGqXuNx1iORry53Rm_xbljyM9DC3pX7KsRd3j54V4OZpMWCC8vugAn4m8waYDALf5uwJjg/w640-h196/Akkadian%20empire.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But as the ITCZ continued to migrate, the Akkadian empire in northern Mesopotamia and dependent on rainfall, collapsed during the 200-year drought that marks the beginning of the Holocene’s Meghalayan Age. Regional rainfall decreased by 20-30% and water levels of the Dead Sea abruptly fell by 100 meters.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Old Kingdom of Egypt, also known as the Age of Pyramids, also collapsed as drought reduced the Nile River's flow and the floods that had previously renewed the fertile soils and maintained Egypt’s agriculture. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8-8IpFPek2y84-Nad_ZWfpHB5-_Yvr0sDsyZmo3qeYvuyRKlC4_XZwiZjjmG_02Xqi6niu2gdRoN4NYwmmF28508Lr6ZMZvBUdjyJJI-bsVjID6TMKcqd9c9z8j5HWmIQpVOZ_K3zjytrrBkrle-4qyEKSgW_qWcbLuxIQ-TdbJIZrRVKQFIXUkFaNg/s1124/age%20of%20Pyramids.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="842" data-original-width="1124" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8-8IpFPek2y84-Nad_ZWfpHB5-_Yvr0sDsyZmo3qeYvuyRKlC4_XZwiZjjmG_02Xqi6niu2gdRoN4NYwmmF28508Lr6ZMZvBUdjyJJI-bsVjID6TMKcqd9c9z8j5HWmIQpVOZ_K3zjytrrBkrle-4qyEKSgW_qWcbLuxIQ-TdbJIZrRVKQFIXUkFaNg/w640-h480/age%20of%20Pyramids.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Late Bronze Age civilizations such as those that flourished in Greece, or Troy or had re-emerged in Egypt, collapsed due to megadroughts 3,200 years ago</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The greatest droughts and deadliest famines occurred during conditions of low CO2 and cooler temperatures of the Little Ice Age, under the very conditions that Attenborough and Rockstrum argue that we must return to. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Great El Nino and resulting droughts of the 1790s devastated east India and caused widespread civil unrest.
The Victorian Great Drought of 1876 resulted in 30 million deaths
The mid–1700s Strange Parallels Drought caused famine and substantial societal upheaval across southeast Asia, India, and the Siberian plains. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk0lwVDh3HWPIbXGuxpAMyzYeQOp0sQU4Uz9xIb0RsnBdIncibJxY1TXlXoeNJvOErKrKCtP5-zLA_lLTror4MzKRJpVxy9i6wAqNv9bYSwuGm0Pm2gM0l6QGx0QVIncvlgr7Z2Md1UDtKS63d4B9v2nt-MNkcQeyKb9ue7pJ6YhjmVJbOYk11-H1xlQ/s1012/drought%20baked%20clay%20water%20jug.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1012" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk0lwVDh3HWPIbXGuxpAMyzYeQOp0sQU4Uz9xIb0RsnBdIncibJxY1TXlXoeNJvOErKrKCtP5-zLA_lLTror4MzKRJpVxy9i6wAqNv9bYSwuGm0Pm2gM0l6QGx0QVIncvlgr7Z2Md1UDtKS63d4B9v2nt-MNkcQeyKb9ue7pJ6YhjmVJbOYk11-H1xlQ/w400-h266/drought%20baked%20clay%20water%20jug.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-Dba58dx1XIuWv3p8Hq-Epvw3z6Sw1fxj6RHVPJ_Dtx1_e4APgSiZnBOeSQzqkIOdlmSyB6Yt5MRKowuO3938y2XmR0Jk3R4frrDjOTeB2bzdKzNuVCiiOlwJNqutrJ_2diW5oNS58E0qZBs8JF7_5w1tR-0fqmoqI4QoGGaAoZ1SIaITyCy-w8i30w/s500/great%20victorian%20drought.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="364" data-original-width="500" height="291" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-Dba58dx1XIuWv3p8Hq-Epvw3z6Sw1fxj6RHVPJ_Dtx1_e4APgSiZnBOeSQzqkIOdlmSyB6Yt5MRKowuO3938y2XmR0Jk3R4frrDjOTeB2bzdKzNuVCiiOlwJNqutrJ_2diW5oNS58E0qZBs8JF7_5w1tR-0fqmoqI4QoGGaAoZ1SIaITyCy-w8i30w/w400-h291/great%20victorian%20drought.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Climate change during the Little Ice Age also brought murderous diseases such as the Bubonic Plague, but that was never mentioned by Attenborough.
Instead, despite mounting evidence that the Covid pandemic was caused by an escaped virus designed in China's Wuhan laboratory by medical experts whose gain of function research was globally funded, Attenborough featured a cholera expert who fear mongered that the Covid epidemic is evidence of the world exceeding our planetary boundaries. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Yet the Bubonic Plague, the greatest killer of all, that had truly been affected by climate change, was ignored. That plague killed over 200 million people worldwide, even though we were well within Rockstrum’s climate boundary.
The Bubonic Plague periodically disappears when temperatures rise above 81.5 ºF (27.5℃), because its transmission is greatly reduced by that warmth. But that fact does not support Attenborough’s CO2 driven global warming climate crisis narrative</span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKvYqsuYYPnAvxIoiKhfgPnKOvEO_l-XkCk5G_vm9l2jXTfQhcmMmDtBdl6X4aNz3yynmAmt2zAlIYM1QlE9Ors2C8djc2xm80M3VbCA-FYBgS1ANKeowrSH_B236Vsnrt284WSMQPCMc944oEf0hojdFt8kqdgdx-lJ3cOx8ETFQzEhP-Ag-RzhqAkg/s878/bubonic%20plague%20table.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="226" data-original-width="878" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKvYqsuYYPnAvxIoiKhfgPnKOvEO_l-XkCk5G_vm9l2jXTfQhcmMmDtBdl6X4aNz3yynmAmt2zAlIYM1QlE9Ors2C8djc2xm80M3VbCA-FYBgS1ANKeowrSH_B236Vsnrt284WSMQPCMc944oEf0hojdFt8kqdgdx-lJ3cOx8ETFQzEhP-Ag-RzhqAkg/w640-h164/bubonic%20plague%20table.jpg" width="640" /></a></p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC2I9xAbbXuQXD6rxHeRmU_sWtQ4anFdKgzXRgRCb03pvfYi16ZNMDG2gm-Y7k9oJStVDO5S_uKbQvJoVIsLxPfLFYO6e8DJG_vB-m0gvHsFSpOemJBlHmB8IaxA2j7GUCYAFvXr4ZneA_BU63N9CFu-yDI0re_C12iOVFn1G2MNKhUvKWCEZ1jBxJrA/s908/bubonice%20plague%20triagee.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="908" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC2I9xAbbXuQXD6rxHeRmU_sWtQ4anFdKgzXRgRCb03pvfYi16ZNMDG2gm-Y7k9oJStVDO5S_uKbQvJoVIsLxPfLFYO6e8DJG_vB-m0gvHsFSpOemJBlHmB8IaxA2j7GUCYAFvXr4ZneA_BU63N9CFu-yDI0re_C12iOVFn1G2MNKhUvKWCEZ1jBxJrA/w400-h283/bubonice%20plague%20triagee.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Furthermore, La Ninas drive Asia’s wet periods, increasing vegetation and promoting greater rodent populations. In turn, more rodents support more fleas that transmit the deadly bubonic bacteria.
When El Ninos bring dry periods that reduce the Asian rodent population, flea populations are forced to seek other hosts and so bite and infect other animals and people. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By the end of the video the reason for Attenborough’s sins of omission and fear mongering become clear. By Rockstrum’s own words, they reveal their true motive for the video's "end of the world" fear mongering. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5fM0POG4WmZoKFaMGN78zKYZ95MsWAAt6jeA2fNXYs2P6fzvv3FpSLjQ8Gr15VsY2DBiloOBCT4oJvtYekOL0NYL5_MB824S1UcEulcfXBrJIRak0gWfmsPRbn5PFCqhm5vyenngc12pr7wPaAGLdTuQS4XUNntVKhWv6yPEv2LX-PAEBkiMPBvWuqw/s786/johan%20rockstrum.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="786" height="578" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5fM0POG4WmZoKFaMGN78zKYZ95MsWAAt6jeA2fNXYs2P6fzvv3FpSLjQ8Gr15VsY2DBiloOBCT4oJvtYekOL0NYL5_MB824S1UcEulcfXBrJIRak0gWfmsPRbn5PFCqhm5vyenngc12pr7wPaAGLdTuQS4XUNntVKhWv6yPEv2LX-PAEBkiMPBvWuqw/w640-h578/johan%20rockstrum.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">They want Rockstrum’s planetary boundaries to be the guide for a global governance that could be enforced by the United Nations Security Council. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The natural causes of climate change, a migrating ITCZ, the El Nino cycles of droughts and famines, or the cool conditions that enabled several Bubonic Plague outbreaks, don’t support their arguments that there is a need for a world government, and so, get ignored. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Like all demagogues and false prophets, Rockstrum combined climate fear with a promised utopia, but only if we follow their mandates. He promises clean air, healthier children, longer life spans, stable markets, stable jobs, and less conflicts. But such pie-in-the-sky promises should make all sane people wonder just how badly his politics have biased his science. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Unsurprisingly, Rockstrum is on the board of directors of the "global challenges foundation" whose founder states, “our intention is to start a debate on the need for an international political system” …"the need for a world government” … “one that can enforce its rules” </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Rockstrum is also on the board of the "Eat Foundation" that proudly announces it is working to build consensus for a grand food system transformation.
You got to wonder what could go wrong when such experts' control the economy? Well, Venezuela, Ghana, and now Sri Lanka quickly come to mind? </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWujR5aRI-LpUyPkEAr3LvoN4N2kVpOWLI5NOA74JKWDXhM5b0jWLpdTlyImzJi_k6NlFCubaOY8f8C5YBLXfokVfIvFLof1Hh1UdU6nAqVpKXEaiO8cD4MF9mvtroHe-o7X02nuMMheV8PSN8QKqWI-tRA8YJdBc1-u5PhBIfOEV4VpR8oV_4jHivQQ/s1574/itcz%20increasing%20enso.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1574" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWujR5aRI-LpUyPkEAr3LvoN4N2kVpOWLI5NOA74JKWDXhM5b0jWLpdTlyImzJi_k6NlFCubaOY8f8C5YBLXfokVfIvFLof1Hh1UdU6nAqVpKXEaiO8cD4MF9mvtroHe-o7X02nuMMheV8PSN8QKqWI-tRA8YJdBc1-u5PhBIfOEV4VpR8oV_4jHivQQ/w640-h350/itcz%20increasing%20enso.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><p style="font-size: x-large; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Holocene’s southward migration of the ITCZ also caused increasing climate instability by promoting greater El Nino and La Nina event</span></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">s.
Alternating El Nino-like and La Nina-like ocean temperatures in the Pacifi</span><span style="font-family: georgia;">c cause a natural global see-saw of droughts, floods, and heatwaves, but those events have been falsely portrayed as evidence of co2 driven climate instability.</span></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During La Nina-like conditions, strong trade winds cause warm water to pile up in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean warm pools, promoting strong summer monsoon rainfalls that sustain the crops that feed half the world's population.
La Nina-like conditions may only last a few years, or for 30 or more years during a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and even longer when strong solar irradiance strengthens the Trade Winds.
Simultaneously, La Nina-like conditions force cooler surface temperatures due to upwelling in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which then promotes descending dry air and drought conditions over portions of western North and South America. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLcWYpSWVDA7V3DAlL5VFnxrwzAiwpytqLp9bcAlSHS91H2-q22gxloBtn6np2liEqXrZYmENjQP3LaHaHpamqTDf53riTTJ1gN7k7utWFaFDaeEgHOROejDkJNiQee8KIO6z9Z8oCxX0xhfNOLiM1doNIC09GM3jGL2cHRm1W40gIQLK1mko7fGZvuw/s2626/la%20nina%20el%20nino.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1828" data-original-width="2626" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLcWYpSWVDA7V3DAlL5VFnxrwzAiwpytqLp9bcAlSHS91H2-q22gxloBtn6np2liEqXrZYmENjQP3LaHaHpamqTDf53riTTJ1gN7k7utWFaFDaeEgHOROejDkJNiQee8KIO6z9Z8oCxX0xhfNOLiM1doNIC09GM3jGL2cHRm1W40gIQLK1mko7fGZvuw/w640-h446/la%20nina%20el%20nino.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Conversely during El Nino-like conditions, warm water stored in the warm pools, more readily slosh eastward, surfacing somewhere between the central and far eastern pacific, bringing heavy rainfall to the Americas but drought to Asia and Australia.
El Nino-like conditions dominate during periods of a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation or periods of weak solar irradiance as was the case during the Little Ice Age sunspot minimums. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Cooler little ice age temperatures and low CO2 concentrations, never spared the world from massive droughts, famine, or collapsed civilizations and millions of deaths.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwCIMn8nzqsfDhSBVJGaTaIgrrjOlOX8QlvEX5qTU8HeNedgNjuV3HGJcPfydDJviaqE6BuAZtMvmKVkJHXrsDWOjVhgbXSfeUfYA5VjrQ48uMEIQFPh7_UL9ajRVYe-iR07nWFXnxmvY9_ipzuqhflJreE5K1giPijFY7fzkEul8qEY_i4QQhgzXh9Q/s888/khmer%20empire.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="746" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwCIMn8nzqsfDhSBVJGaTaIgrrjOlOX8QlvEX5qTU8HeNedgNjuV3HGJcPfydDJviaqE6BuAZtMvmKVkJHXrsDWOjVhgbXSfeUfYA5VjrQ48uMEIQFPh7_UL9ajRVYe-iR07nWFXnxmvY9_ipzuqhflJreE5K1giPijFY7fzkEul8qEY_i4QQhgzXh9Q/w538-h640/khmer%20empire.jpg" width="538" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The El Nino-like conditions that dominated the 1300s and 1400s, brought decades-long droughts that collapsed Cambodia’s Khmer empire, as well as the Victorian </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Great Drought </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">and other previously mentioned droughts.</span></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During more La Nina-like conditions during the Medieval Warm Period, extreme drought conditions in the American southwest forced the Anasazi civilization to abandon that region. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXjyXjguNH1mYWrglIJeBOaXBnTc_ljCe7dLvCQDjDB7Y3E1XC6B_9qq-Sh61uGEStg_9ZiIrYjscfgTve-QXoTDHoj1oKcCXiqDzpTMkD3GSizfwNhw68L4YE6-UCRteX6TPZLTm69_IdqhkpGq3y7-vu7ldwbIg80KGZWo7qgS4u1QRE4TNFOiq26A/s1186/anasazi%20pueblos.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="1186" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXjyXjguNH1mYWrglIJeBOaXBnTc_ljCe7dLvCQDjDB7Y3E1XC6B_9qq-Sh61uGEStg_9ZiIrYjscfgTve-QXoTDHoj1oKcCXiqDzpTMkD3GSizfwNhw68L4YE6-UCRteX6TPZLTm69_IdqhkpGq3y7-vu7ldwbIg80KGZWo7qgS4u1QRE4TNFOiq26A/w640-h424/anasazi%20pueblos.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To achieve their political aims, demagogues and false prophets always fear monger impending doom.
Edmund Burke warned in the 1700s “no passion so effectually robs the mind of all its powers to act, ...and to reason, ...as does fear.” </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Tragically, instead of educating the public about the complexities of Holocene climate change and droughts, Attenborough chose to stunt the public's ability to reason by pushing fear. To that end, he included parts of a speech by Greta Thunberg, the teenage actress who first learned to fear climate change at the ripe old age of eight years old. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Although the media has systematically denigrated and silenced knowledgeable skeptical scientists, Greta’s handlers easily featured her so-called in-depth knowledge of climate science at the "World Economic Forum" in 2019 at Davos. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Her words are repeated in his video, clearly echoing Attenborough’s intent!
Greta ranted “I don't want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic, I want you to feel the fear I feel everyday” </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiNu2wl45QmbfNfb43vOsiw8IJPgnck7j409vlv8lbJoWE9ga-m99X39vfPKRypn_wit5LkJe0ccrdnw4vJzhF8sj3iFqhkL9NvxtQ5vpLdfvU5lOtV8O9rePGVdinW9tIC4AlmMX7IJn6rnR-6qIeWM3vc8Tr-Lu0Kgj4aFzPR64ADbtCGrnT2zwc-Q/s692/greta%20rant.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="692" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiNu2wl45QmbfNfb43vOsiw8IJPgnck7j409vlv8lbJoWE9ga-m99X39vfPKRypn_wit5LkJe0ccrdnw4vJzhF8sj3iFqhkL9NvxtQ5vpLdfvU5lOtV8O9rePGVdinW9tIC4AlmMX7IJn6rnR-6qIeWM3vc8Tr-Lu0Kgj4aFzPR64ADbtCGrnT2zwc-Q/w640-h640/greta%20rant.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Like most mainstream media, every bad weather event becomes a click-bait story about the impending doom of climate change. The NY Times reviewed "Breaking Boundaries", calling it a documentary about the end of the world.
Although many outlets criticized the video's animations and presentation style, mainstream media never challenged its abundant distortions and misleading omissions. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Likewise, in the political struggle for power in the USA, the Senate Democrats created the "Special Committee on the Climate Crisis". Their goal was not to uncover the truth by fostering robust scientific debate, but to shut down debate. As their first priority clearly stated, the Committee's purpose was to provide "oversight and investigation of the efforts of special interests to foster climate denial".
Gee, how dare our democracy allow citizens to challenge the climate crisis fears pushed by demagogues. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiomCIp0yyS1gUUqtdJaO7gJgGVEvPVtBMsbR89ahPSYCKG51dUqevRWU3z6tKPIfzNv1De_-7KuFvccRj3r3DRBwfLJy5fzW-HosYVTml7HEZlZZBJDryelvYdb_E6q6DUWSiFUffAz9ZxArTVDkFUVKU3oRsoiFkH0Ej034Ky3N7KRhOIz3lTqppjxg/s1595/ny%20times%20%20embrace%20politics%20of%20fear.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1595" data-original-width="1590" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiomCIp0yyS1gUUqtdJaO7gJgGVEvPVtBMsbR89ahPSYCKG51dUqevRWU3z6tKPIfzNv1De_-7KuFvccRj3r3DRBwfLJy5fzW-HosYVTml7HEZlZZBJDryelvYdb_E6q6DUWSiFUffAz9ZxArTVDkFUVKU3oRsoiFkH0Ej034Ky3N7KRhOIz3lTqppjxg/w638-h640/ny%20times%20%20embrace%20politics%20of%20fear.jpg" width="638" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, it is not surprising that the NY Times just published on July 8, 2022, an article titled “Democrats can win [upcoming elections] if they Embrace the Politics of Fear”. Accordingly, climate fear has been a staple of so many democrat politicians and policies. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Finally, one last example of how Attenborough and Rockstrum distorted the science. Early in the video's narratives they claimed the polar ice caps reflect just the perfect amount of sunlight to prevent the earth from overheating. But now the warming and melting from rising CO2 is disrupting that perfect balance.
Yet the history of Greenland’s ice cap tells a very different story. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNVT56JKqOcd49aCQgYn2pektmwaS6VDeoWOydCoHU71_D4oa4WL_t4f9_70966J9iMqBZz54sfx8RYl3r9EjmRXcmAxHhB3fhL11qUmFANt0kyvBMCucXFv6DrlF6Z6ku6kgBy0OAaIJYWay1qOGLB2zn7G0b0lICEh1Y8cpulXUe_sqszQ1f5xpNlA/s3121/greenland%20jakobshavan%201960-90%20highligh.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1416" data-original-width="3121" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNVT56JKqOcd49aCQgYn2pektmwaS6VDeoWOydCoHU71_D4oa4WL_t4f9_70966J9iMqBZz54sfx8RYl3r9EjmRXcmAxHhB3fhL11qUmFANt0kyvBMCucXFv6DrlF6Z6ku6kgBy0OAaIJYWay1qOGLB2zn7G0b0lICEh1Y8cpulXUe_sqszQ1f5xpNlA/w640-h290/greenland%20jakobshavan%201960-90%20highligh.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the early Greenlandian age, Greenland’s glaciers were still growing.
But during the Northgrippian age, glaciers such as the Jakobshavn retreated 100 meters per year and its margin remained behind the glacier's current boundary for 7000 years. Despite reflecting much less sunlight than Attenborough’s perfect balance would suggest, that lack of polar ice never triggered a tipping point or runaway warming. Instead, the earth entered a cooling trend.
The recent Meghalayan age had been informally called the neo-glacial as glaciers expanded at higher latitudes with maximum extents culminating in the Little Ice Age. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But due to natural climate oscillations, glacier growth and retreat has oscillated.
Between 1960 and 1990, the Jakobshavn did not retreat, and Greenland gained ice. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Similarly, alternating periods of ice growth and retreat, frequently happened between 6500 and 2600 years ago as summer sea surface temperatures alternated between 2–4 °C cooler to 6 °C warmer than present while sea ice ranged between 2 months more ice and 4 months more open water than today.
Accordingly, the so-called paleo-Eskimo cultures periodically abandoned and reclaimed the arctic ocean's coastal habitats.
So, is the current loss of arctic sea ice simply a continuation of the Holocene’s natural oscillations? </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Scientists tell a similar story about Norway’s glaciers that completely melted away at least once during the Holocene.
The Hardangerjøkulen glacier, seen here, (and I do apologize to native Norwegian speakers for any mispronunciations) it melted away 8000 years ago when the mean summer temperatures were
1 °C higher than today. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd0x-kZH-DrRPrOyHK4bRmnfm9dOrLFT2TygVNHjzIhV4QarOejJQwv36l9YT7y1fxvE8Ezw4YXrNbkmbE9mggJBycByRw8NlElHci5oCHYhDUQM15XX3oQ6RRvud9I9YD-t4fSGnd9XnUv6Al2m61r8MqBKX5jIamJCHyoOpyHlZampzD0G3qHog9gA/s632/Hardangerj%C3%B8kulen%20glacier.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="632" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhd0x-kZH-DrRPrOyHK4bRmnfm9dOrLFT2TygVNHjzIhV4QarOejJQwv36l9YT7y1fxvE8Ezw4YXrNbkmbE9mggJBycByRw8NlElHci5oCHYhDUQM15XX3oQ6RRvud9I9YD-t4fSGnd9XnUv6Al2m61r8MqBKX5jIamJCHyoOpyHlZampzD0G3qHog9gA/w400-h251/Hardangerj%C3%B8kulen%20glacier.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> The Jostedalsbreen glacier melted away 7600 years ago when mean summer temperatures were
0.7 °C warmer than today. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs4-AJ5Bo55-2gfs5WRL-Yp-Zj1aZSjGwMOwh4TtJSJPKcofnEkY52RnCfRZIHagexeLlK8jJUwMgzV1N83UwQudVp0uyIG5bbD8IwCZu3kH0DeuZBsbFsKXJcbGQcACU4TQPtoRqHm5uu7ezOHqVedSdoNCHLL965ngI2ysKPkiEnHg6_2O5VOl0Ntg/s514/Jostedalsbreen%20glacier.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="398" data-original-width="514" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs4-AJ5Bo55-2gfs5WRL-Yp-Zj1aZSjGwMOwh4TtJSJPKcofnEkY52RnCfRZIHagexeLlK8jJUwMgzV1N83UwQudVp0uyIG5bbD8IwCZu3kH0DeuZBsbFsKXJcbGQcACU4TQPtoRqHm5uu7ezOHqVedSdoNCHLL965ngI2ysKPkiEnHg6_2O5VOl0Ntg/w400-h310/Jostedalsbreen%20glacier.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But most informative, the Folgefonna glacier melted away 9700 years ago when temperatures were similar to today but precipitation, had been reduced by 70%.
</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWhV7qWWcimD3SodEDuFIQbq1yEMbS8tswkdYwOsRH-SgE9yQJIejNbrOyVHGQWGkcgeL1FJAAip0Bz_9Xi7ttagREzdtFhGu4nUa7ZPgqYG6LasDOX6bjhAhXRj-DfwMDfuJZVZDsa7zecEwPFf5tAZTiLGXzUAyPEBJEDH9FCOvFxYgdlleZqBTwMQ/s358/Folgefonna%20glacier.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="257" data-original-width="358" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWhV7qWWcimD3SodEDuFIQbq1yEMbS8tswkdYwOsRH-SgE9yQJIejNbrOyVHGQWGkcgeL1FJAAip0Bz_9Xi7ttagREzdtFhGu4nUa7ZPgqYG6LasDOX6bjhAhXRj-DfwMDfuJZVZDsa7zecEwPFf5tAZTiLGXzUAyPEBJEDH9FCOvFxYgdlleZqBTwMQ/w400-h288/Folgefonna%20glacier.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Likewise, glacier advances and retreats during the little ice age, in both the Swiss Alps and Africa’s Kilimanjaro, have correlated with changes in precipitation, as evidenced by simultaneous changes in surrounding lake levels.
And despite the doomsday narratives, correlations between temperature and ice extent are often lacking. Yet again, Attenborough and Rockstrum ignored those scientific observations so they can push their warming crisis. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Climate truths will always be resisted by those who profit from fear and those who have been naively convinced by chicken little scientists and cinematographers. But the truth will set you free.
Indeed, these truths provide the critical thinking to minimize to what degree you will be manipulated by dishonest political agendas. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So please, share these truths! </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1zrwCwAf5ePS55Bl7R2t6l9SbcvmEAd8Au4eNCS5qXXzHAyiEhgLG80sMSXNYEWU4w48aOuSQfg8QJHizxIOxlRRIy6cNklWqnUH6VxotqOJr-NBEWUM_kmIHKike8c8QxdO4DeLvKLq7liCQ_gvGrM1nnWazeLGvr0PTpKyyCK8ipYEopjILGZTPmg/s1046/beauty%20of%20truth.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1044" data-original-width="1046" height="638" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1zrwCwAf5ePS55Bl7R2t6l9SbcvmEAd8Au4eNCS5qXXzHAyiEhgLG80sMSXNYEWU4w48aOuSQfg8QJHizxIOxlRRIy6cNklWqnUH6VxotqOJr-NBEWUM_kmIHKike8c8QxdO4DeLvKLq7liCQ_gvGrM1nnWazeLGvr0PTpKyyCK8ipYEopjILGZTPmg/w640-h638/beauty%20of%20truth.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Our democracy depends on a diverse array of good critical thinkers. So, please shun mindless group think. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Instead embrace renowned scientist, Thomas Huxley’s advice
Skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p></p>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-9948475730201030602022-06-27T15:50:00.005-07:002022-06-27T15:53:24.213-07:00Media claims CO2 “traps heat”! A big lie or a big stupid ???<p style="text-align: center;">Below is the transcript to the video </p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36dAG3YkqSE" target="_blank">Media claims CO2 “traps heat”! A big lie or a big stupid ???</a></span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">view at </span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36dAG3YkqSE</b></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone. This video will expose a popular climate myth pushed by the media. Although greenhouse gases warm the earth's average temperature, CO2 does not trap heat. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtvyjw3Wi5hIDZSiXFUZVLwkXaOuTq-2OdHffE_jBi52GjdifuZHfYHWcWlXiWcmAYaJg4lZqfbr60GGuITXlMlfhDmZ4w1QAtSO4O8J5Y8ZRERhCnUSK8DD9F1JKfsWOqeKuD40Ylz27cDrLhDo9Xyi5TCVzieiCW1DVUVICKKfx1qWMBO2S7rL3C1w/s684/ABC%20news%20solar%20incoming.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="684" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtvyjw3Wi5hIDZSiXFUZVLwkXaOuTq-2OdHffE_jBi52GjdifuZHfYHWcWlXiWcmAYaJg4lZqfbr60GGuITXlMlfhDmZ4w1QAtSO4O8J5Y8ZRERhCnUSK8DD9F1JKfsWOqeKuD40Ylz27cDrLhDo9Xyi5TCVzieiCW1DVUVICKKfx1qWMBO2S7rL3C1w/w640-h400/ABC%20news%20solar%20incoming.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Click bait media thrives on fearmongering. So, ABC news for example, has published this misleading illustration of solar energy entering the earth's atmosphere, but no energy escaping back to space. To blame rising CO2 on climate change they must call CO2 a heat trapping gas, so they can then make simple minded claims that any rise in CO2 must increase extreme heating and then fearmonger a climate crisis. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But all climate scientists agree that the energy absorbed by CO2 is quickly shed in less than one thousandth of a second. Hardly enough time to argue the heat had been trapped. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvvKL7RHSwo5pB8JIaGyMnIpke2mfGMaxFR3Fa91f54mHDnbL4O30H1BP1PH2XdfZArdq16Od0gAxQKbH3d21n1EiRdqRPvElQSnwdgLaDjugOQCvD57aXQWfu1z6RozIVdNWpm6tBZjjcVA6_Sfd1Kg0T0ZKHwW3zajTWMLqfHJn8gPjHrHIFs14Qww/s1608/climate%20cetral%20bogus%20%20pic.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1287" data-original-width="1608" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvvKL7RHSwo5pB8JIaGyMnIpke2mfGMaxFR3Fa91f54mHDnbL4O30H1BP1PH2XdfZArdq16Od0gAxQKbH3d21n1EiRdqRPvElQSnwdgLaDjugOQCvD57aXQWfu1z6RozIVdNWpm6tBZjjcVA6_Sfd1Kg0T0ZKHwW3zajTWMLqfHJn8gPjHrHIFs14Qww/w640-h512/climate%20cetral%20bogus%20%20pic.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Others like climate central who identify as independent scientists and communicators reporting "just the facts about climate change" published this bogus illustration suggesting just half the incoming solar energy is radiated back to space. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But satellite data and energy budgets estimated by climate scientists' have calculated that of the absorbed incoming solar heat, the earth radiates 99.6%, with several tenths of percent uncertainty, back to space as infrared heat waves.
The greenhouse effect is more complex because CO2 has both warming and cooling effects. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The only thing getting trapped is the public's misunderstanding of how the greenhouse effect works and their fear of the future. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKEKAc2GOrwWbPemlhdMBvWwwuIvN90W-B4ALtwUcQe2ZquCNwRcLVwpm8XpEt1GbDDJg_m0NDt33h11KilWS-X2vKQ7STXKIYN012d5tSOHLcZAYGqDlsFwEeArUVz_sI2qPmloXdJJ0yRtFyXKgKf0zy_FEB1NPOhmKtmL15TwI-_L2Ai4dn2-rBBw/s618/peerson%20trappeed.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="618" height="522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKEKAc2GOrwWbPemlhdMBvWwwuIvN90W-B4ALtwUcQe2ZquCNwRcLVwpm8XpEt1GbDDJg_m0NDt33h11KilWS-X2vKQ7STXKIYN012d5tSOHLcZAYGqDlsFwEeArUVz_sI2qPmloXdJJ0yRtFyXKgKf0zy_FEB1NPOhmKtmL15TwI-_L2Ai4dn2-rBBw/w640-h522/peerson%20trappeed.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Several natural climate dynamics trap heat for much longer periods. And those natural climate dynamics are better able to explain observed warming events. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Consider that 99% of our atmosphere is composed of 3 gases, oxygen, nitrogen, and argon, and they are not greenhouse gases. Near the surface, a CO2 molecule collides a billion times every second with non-greenhouse gases, transferring the energy CO2 may have absorbed from infrared heat to those non-greenhouse gases. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNdcdr0n-ECU3GZDkQK1Ra-8-gYo_hXGIutS7Ebv-7XMC8foW3txpINrT-U2s-ySphaBJEW55yNj3k17UM2fLanojjzMxAMGBNh-UH2emx5vbO0V2Uq54cjCmzyan-5zi6z0QJzcva6IEiAyUvocUvOWsFxGWJHNl_l2kp4uPaHW8rs8gij84bzEHRFw/s930/atmosphere%20%20gas%20composition.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="930" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNdcdr0n-ECU3GZDkQK1Ra-8-gYo_hXGIutS7Ebv-7XMC8foW3txpINrT-U2s-ySphaBJEW55yNj3k17UM2fLanojjzMxAMGBNh-UH2emx5vbO0V2Uq54cjCmzyan-5zi6z0QJzcva6IEiAyUvocUvOWsFxGWJHNl_l2kp4uPaHW8rs8gij84bzEHRFw/w640-h442/atmosphere%20%20gas%20composition.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"> Conversely oxygen and nitrogen cannot radiate energy away. So, to shed the energy absorbed from collisions with CO2 or the solar heated ground they must collide with greenhouse gases that can radiate that heat away. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">If you ever played with newton's cradle, you understand how energy can be transferred back and forth as energy is lost from one ball and given to another.
</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQIOs3dpZSFdoD3jt6ku7fjp3A1B3tfR87tKAQ4RQ7WiYb9v_WUCJ1iVqdZZjJnYRnTuemwpFVnQAeN-OLuScPCSz1QG8KA2idLIojTVvYV74pgNQRtiBdDhTLk7dtI1Ihn4Vu6jY01xZXIIIp6-3ZREkrpOu3nNoP_2K4I63bPVVWBU8z_9wPPn5KQ/s642/newton's%20cradle.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="640" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieQIOs3dpZSFdoD3jt6ku7fjp3A1B3tfR87tKAQ4RQ7WiYb9v_WUCJ1iVqdZZjJnYRnTuemwpFVnQAeN-OLuScPCSz1QG8KA2idLIojTVvYV74pgNQRtiBdDhTLk7dtI1Ihn4Vu6jY01xZXIIIp6-3ZREkrpOu3nNoP_2K4I63bPVVWBU8z_9wPPn5KQ/w638-h640/newton's%20cradle.png" width="638" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Alarmist media only focus on the warming effects of CO2 and ignore the fact that increasing CO2 helps infrared radiation escape from the earth's atmosphere by cooling the middle to upper atmosphere</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghHVUK5ePqulx8wHaILK2c5f3hPV2b7jEmWUK8MvjTYQxwHlVosMMoAk0380hkwIRXOPkWsmI6Z11eUCmVIeRIJY7DZUuz6-zVNUNFBBWLLsNjfp18TuBwBVt_ADs4qp58vM71A6SLVYi9lEIZoopq-ELz3AmeNqf6RaO3B7jpqy5VP3ZCY0yYvGSJAA/s984/3%20atmospheeric%20zones.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="984" data-original-width="734" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghHVUK5ePqulx8wHaILK2c5f3hPV2b7jEmWUK8MvjTYQxwHlVosMMoAk0380hkwIRXOPkWsmI6Z11eUCmVIeRIJY7DZUuz6-zVNUNFBBWLLsNjfp18TuBwBVt_ADs4qp58vM71A6SLVYi9lEIZoopq-ELz3AmeNqf6RaO3B7jpqy5VP3ZCY0yYvGSJAA/w478-h640/3%20atmospheeric%20zones.png" width="478" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">There are three distinct atmospheric layers that affect how infrared heat escapes to space. Changes in the atmosphere's density contributes to how readily infrared heat radiates back to space.
At higher altitudes air density is greatly reduced causing fewer collisions and creating wider spaces for infrared to escape unimpeded. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIX-jpISNNn7mT0CpefRXGrDQe7PBOz5sV5jwxfE3GRblYDRxxtl1VrgVvzMNE9q5TgMsVjz_pz_nEwClgms0_iPdJWA5B6ojZ0hJ2Lz1x7U7xc-psjPXGS7KaA1gbGGX4ch0p-JtuXPce32tpfyBGMos3lygmKIDzxaeWXGHTMVYEFFU0XGZsNA6nbg/s836/atmospheere%20density.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="836" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIX-jpISNNn7mT0CpefRXGrDQe7PBOz5sV5jwxfE3GRblYDRxxtl1VrgVvzMNE9q5TgMsVjz_pz_nEwClgms0_iPdJWA5B6ojZ0hJ2Lz1x7U7xc-psjPXGS7KaA1gbGGX4ch0p-JtuXPce32tpfyBGMos3lygmKIDzxaeWXGHTMVYEFFU0XGZsNA6nbg/w640-h378/atmospheere%20density.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The low-density mesosphere cools with increasing altitude because CO2 radiates more heat back to space, faster than the sun can heat the mesosphere. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The low-density stratosphere also allows more infrared to escape to space, but here the temperature rises with increasing altitude because ultraviolet sunlight interacts with the ozone layer, warming the air faster than CO2 can radiate infrared heat away.
However, both observations and modeling have determined that increasing CO2 concentrations are enhancing infrared radiation back to space causing a cooling trend in the stratosphere and mesosphere. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In the dense lower atmosphere, or troposphere, the upwards and downward flow of infrared radiation is approximately balanced, and the warming effect of CO2 is nearly saturated. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Cooling of the troposphere is largely dependent on </span><span style="font-size: large;">lower pressure</span><span style="font-size: large;"> and </span><span style="font-size: large;">rising convection currents that carry warm air towards the stratosphere where more heat can radiate away to space. In the troposphere, the transport of heat via convection is as equally important for cooling as infrared radiation.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLnJ2IwOajdUdElBhLBNHoWWpynYFAXI-E7y9Elrxa9LtjKABrQ3Tugd3pWDc6ZMIlLkvX016n6VlKrkh6eCoHf6Uxt0AT5t34s0mmZOygq_PJVHqwDZhCA0ZLBdS7-It35JBsKrhUb5X7DaqRYoiPpZe4D64FpIaEjfw4K4ymeawxXAQsMIuI7mDN7g/s1046/convection%20general.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="754" data-original-width="1046" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLnJ2IwOajdUdElBhLBNHoWWpynYFAXI-E7y9Elrxa9LtjKABrQ3Tugd3pWDc6ZMIlLkvX016n6VlKrkh6eCoHf6Uxt0AT5t34s0mmZOygq_PJVHqwDZhCA0ZLBdS7-It35JBsKrhUb5X7DaqRYoiPpZe4D64FpIaEjfw4K4ymeawxXAQsMIuI7mDN7g/w640-h462/convection%20general.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">When air collides with earth's solar heated surface, it warms, expands, and rises. As the rising air approaches the stratosphere, enough heat radiates away to cool the air and allow it to sink back towards the earth’s surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Extreme hot weather typically occurs whenever convection is suppressed.
Simply consider the studies that have found stopping convection by rolling up a car's windows traps heat in a car. In just one-hour temperatures inside the car rise by 43 F. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi02XOuVo4zmFTgsO-H5NzzPL7SQuXFfcXHsfbKvOhLhDMkOWZdhVLxOjZXnR61wPqSz9XU0V2Wqdy0dwt8RtNaNdog2zWQUNJeHtIs1Zio-PO66fr9a8H2p-Yl3zSjEf7ym016pL8bJdcY-8vMGjNoCgN3Xa5JFQpSdlEKakDAl-QTYuSoVlGzvDXzcw/s559/car%20over%20heatn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="559" height="606" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi02XOuVo4zmFTgsO-H5NzzPL7SQuXFfcXHsfbKvOhLhDMkOWZdhVLxOjZXnR61wPqSz9XU0V2Wqdy0dwt8RtNaNdog2zWQUNJeHtIs1Zio-PO66fr9a8H2p-Yl3zSjEf7ym016pL8bJdcY-8vMGjNoCgN3Xa5JFQpSdlEKakDAl-QTYuSoVlGzvDXzcw/w640-h606/car%20over%20heatn%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Convection happens whenever a layer of less dense warm air lies below a layer of dense colder air. During the day, solar heating of the ground creates those conditions and promotes convection. But convection can still be suppressed. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The atmosphere must balance regions of rising air with regions of sinking air. So, the earth is covered by a mosaic of regions dominated by rising convection alternating with regions dominated by sinking air that suppresses convection.
Regions of suppressed convection can be temporary, causing above average temperatures lasting for just a day, or extend periods of heating for millennia as experienced by the earth's great deserts. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXWSdbppg6PMsIIZtVwL-4sQUWOCQoKOkrYnaaE_OqYZed0akMWQ5X-WoiM_XbuK-onKnpJlViIp_4Ym_kA2hCl0JEagr-GBgUO7uS4hePYR1Pm117eOSkCKKq_lhyW9obkReE6DU01IZSHJa3gdXwEcJ4wLb6_sxqR2OfrB8YW9uG-tmiC1VnPqveqA/s886/how%20heat%20dome%20works.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="886" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXWSdbppg6PMsIIZtVwL-4sQUWOCQoKOkrYnaaE_OqYZed0akMWQ5X-WoiM_XbuK-onKnpJlViIp_4Ym_kA2hCl0JEagr-GBgUO7uS4hePYR1Pm117eOSkCKKq_lhyW9obkReE6DU01IZSHJa3gdXwEcJ4wLb6_sxqR2OfrB8YW9uG-tmiC1VnPqveqA/w640-h378/how%20heat%20dome%20works.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Heat waves are common when the downward flow of air beneath a jet stream's ridge, causes air to rapidly heat as the air compresses. That creates a layer of air that's warmer than the surface air below and that layer serves as the top of a heat dome that suppresses convection.
Combined with increased solar heating from clear skies, reduced convection causes heat waves that trap suffocating heat for days and sometimes weeks. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Conversely, convection is suppressed when the surface layer becomes colder than the air above. This typically happens at night and during the winter. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxo21UJyMFcrqRCfOiPO5MgBNKDYqz_Btb64Mpt3Et9Ma_aRk-Cgpc-G0PZZTI_qIVSZytDcqSvj1s7bSGTPnnryxeVtVqLZg1XypJjLOG4LhTva85TrQItwvMvYNTeJNMMmO5cUS7eTGLOQLpKIP-8o_pYMdj9JCMYAr19_P830siwjIk9-5JYplOgQ/s612/smoke%20inversion2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="286" data-original-width="612" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxo21UJyMFcrqRCfOiPO5MgBNKDYqz_Btb64Mpt3Et9Ma_aRk-Cgpc-G0PZZTI_qIVSZytDcqSvj1s7bSGTPnnryxeVtVqLZg1XypJjLOG4LhTva85TrQItwvMvYNTeJNMMmO5cUS7eTGLOQLpKIP-8o_pYMdj9JCMYAr19_P830siwjIk9-5JYplOgQ/w640-h300/smoke%20inversion2.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The ground can shed 20 to 30% of its heat to space by quickly emitting infrared wavelengths to space that are not impeded by greenhouse gases.
In contrast because the atmosphere’s heated oxygen and nitrogen do not radiate heat at all. The air can only shed its heat more slowly by colliding with a greenhouse gas that can radiate heat away. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">This creates the so-called inversion layers with cold air near the surface and a layer of warmer air above that suppresses convection.
In contrast to heat domes, this suppressed convection does not cause a heat wave, but it can trap smoke and pollution near the surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Asphalt and concrete absorb and store solar heat, emitting it more slowly than normal and raising nighttime temperatures
This trapping of surface heat contributes to urban heat islands and explains why city dwellers suffer the most during heat waves</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWhCTIKLM7YrEoSXyq-K1NBODmvJZSGWtCGzZ0BZ6RxcVeuy3eEJH4tUbiSGEkoIO051Wf5gqh3RFiVkRKfS6Lp46U0szaY4-XELpK7Rfhrq80UUb49oIGwbWvWzItBVODoZA9FN_dZwisY1yKsqNQ36n4ceDYFlqk4aqwT3VsoNamiIg5apTftuB4rw/s678/eggs%20on%20pavement.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="440" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWhCTIKLM7YrEoSXyq-K1NBODmvJZSGWtCGzZ0BZ6RxcVeuy3eEJH4tUbiSGEkoIO051Wf5gqh3RFiVkRKfS6Lp46U0szaY4-XELpK7Rfhrq80UUb49oIGwbWvWzItBVODoZA9FN_dZwisY1yKsqNQ36n4ceDYFlqk4aqwT3VsoNamiIg5apTftuB4rw/w260-h400/eggs%20on%20pavement.jpg" width="260" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The oceans trap the most heat for the longest times. Massachusetts institute of technology's esteemed oceanographers, doctors Karl Wunsch and Patrick Heimbach, calculated the amount of heat trapped in today's oceans.
They estimated that solar heated waters may be trapped for 100 to 10,000 years before that heat can circulated to the surface and escape back to the atmosphere. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtgp5HUtSizb0jas2oe1akCO8S9HxuagBZ9Vdd6ejYb4CVa-lBcnqDfaT8zCpwL48BzxmtNr73WSctV8aiKcCKlgRDB1FERucN3bLAIXNjOQDQcmo7seGUMm-e7F4JYYjBGB291lvDjJmn_ltSXcZ-Kf-l1odSkmuR_qfyjZZmgCH63zjZZ_2gpxfsNA/s1264/wunsch%20heated%20atlantic.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="722" data-original-width="1264" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtgp5HUtSizb0jas2oe1akCO8S9HxuagBZ9Vdd6ejYb4CVa-lBcnqDfaT8zCpwL48BzxmtNr73WSctV8aiKcCKlgRDB1FERucN3bLAIXNjOQDQcmo7seGUMm-e7F4JYYjBGB291lvDjJmn_ltSXcZ-Kf-l1odSkmuR_qfyjZZmgCH63zjZZ_2gpxfsNA/w640-h366/wunsch%20heated%20atlantic.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The greatest amount of heat is trapped in the Atlantic Ocean, illustrated here by the dark red color.
One reason for this concentration of trapped heat is the outflow of warm salty Mediterranean seawater into the Atlantic. The clear summer skies of all Mediterranean climates result in evaporation exceeding precipitation, which causes salty & dense, warm surface waters to sink. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The sinking of dense Mediterranean water creates the warmest waters in the world of any waters at 1000-meter depths. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">As detailed in earlier videos, the greatest amount of solar flux into the ocean happens in the eastern pacific during la Nina periods where less cloud cover allows greater solar heating.
The trade winds then pile up that solar heated water in the western pacific and Indian ocean, pushing heat down to 200 meters depth and trapping it there for years. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu9ofB47tERIRWBeONaPtUT96SpoohuzvXNQwrJKNHhjPRwRP8_gHvYo6Aat7ZDWNFMqYoM0lz998aqcsLiTv60ubaWVHi434RfRRxPHz2fZ8sSsQqHJkYXsP02sN7uyGJv4uybxgMEbNQZ2uU73XMbYQtzpcHoNylwPWCddplTliYDrznVqa_GcnDKg/s3263/la%20nina%20%20deep%20thermocline.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1714" data-original-width="3263" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu9ofB47tERIRWBeONaPtUT96SpoohuzvXNQwrJKNHhjPRwRP8_gHvYo6Aat7ZDWNFMqYoM0lz998aqcsLiTv60ubaWVHi434RfRRxPHz2fZ8sSsQqHJkYXsP02sN7uyGJv4uybxgMEbNQZ2uU73XMbYQtzpcHoNylwPWCddplTliYDrznVqa_GcnDKg/w640-h336/la%20nina%20%20deep%20thermocline.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The alarmists' narratives claim the oceans are heating up because oceans absorb 90% of the so-called "excess heat from CO2's downward infrared energy. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But the science suggests it is the sun's visible light that is warming the oceans. Visible light carries far more energy than greenhouse infrared. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgineikPOwWHx3a72-oN-WdSxS9ofhQVqvDNUvEw6RH2I1dC7GsdEmUQz_pHa1O2nDKcIEL4hV5m3Dpe1Pqx71j77VbmTvrt8prvOuXc1nGwZ2cwTT1NcdPYTc868yAw-oeu4KYppkSpmpwAqbO2yPuCdxZmT09uwNaqb1iXxm8473K1bn36REGXf8sMg/s4157/visible%20ligth%20penetration%20dept.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1677" data-original-width="4157" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgineikPOwWHx3a72-oN-WdSxS9ofhQVqvDNUvEw6RH2I1dC7GsdEmUQz_pHa1O2nDKcIEL4hV5m3Dpe1Pqx71j77VbmTvrt8prvOuXc1nGwZ2cwTT1NcdPYTc868yAw-oeu4KYppkSpmpwAqbO2yPuCdxZmT09uwNaqb1iXxm8473K1bn36REGXf8sMg/w640-h258/visible%20ligth%20penetration%20dept.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And it penetrates to 40 meters depth in murky coastal waters</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And up to 200 meters depth in clear open ocean waters</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast greenhouse infrared heat penetrates only a few microns past the ocean surface. That heat, absorbed in the ocean's extremely thin skin layer is not transported to deeper layers but commonly and quickly released to the atmosphere via evaporation, suggesting infrared heat from greenhouse gases are not causing ocean warming at all. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Just as trapped solar heat warms the oceans, if outgoing infrared doesn’t balance incoming solar heating the earth's climate will warm. So, the debate becomes: are the currently observed warmer temperatures due to natural dynamics that trap heat as described in the first part of this video, or due to the trapping of heat by rising CO2.
But atmospheric physics suggests CO2 can't be more than a minor contributor. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2gM5M7S2veScsrPmKa83bqan7A211iTrwvQ8oFII5sr3FVc6d7pa2JsHsDThs08znOhewoy2BgTYOgIOWG9qo_RkkeKQ-iYisKy29uPzIbQ384wLtED1Fk9EkxG4vSrXO07BuMRSNtu4vavXikfsIBUrJUH7LWveHPeYZPFZdLWp0pghu9KKvLYpkrw/s2621/avearge%20infrARED%20GRFEENHOUSE%20HAPPER.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1755" data-original-width="2621" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2gM5M7S2veScsrPmKa83bqan7A211iTrwvQ8oFII5sr3FVc6d7pa2JsHsDThs08znOhewoy2BgTYOgIOWG9qo_RkkeKQ-iYisKy29uPzIbQ384wLtED1Fk9EkxG4vSrXO07BuMRSNtu4vavXikfsIBUrJUH7LWveHPeYZPFZdLWp0pghu9KKvLYpkrw/w640-h428/avearge%20infrARED%20GRFEENHOUSE%20HAPPER.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The physics describing how heated bodies emit infrared and how that infrared interacts with greenhouse gases is very well studied and can be accurately modeled as illustrated here in a 2019 paper by atmospheric physicists, Drs. Wijngaarden & Will Happer from Princeton. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The solid blue curve describes a hypothetical condition with no greenhouse gases, and it illustrates how much energy is ideally emitted from a surface with our current average temperature back to space by each infrared wavelength.
But keep in mind, without greenhouse gases to re-cycle infrared heat back to the earth's surface to delay cooling, the earth's average temperature would become uninhabitable, plummeting to an average temperature just below freezing. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The jagged black curve indicates how much energy actually escapes via each wavelength under our current atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and ... With CO2 at 400 ppm.
The difference between this curve and the idealized blue curve indicates how much of the energy outflow of each infrared wavelength is reduced by greenhouse gases and instead gets re-directed to the earth's surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And keep in mind, that re-directed infrared has delayed cooling and raised the earth's average temperature to our very livable current temperature of about 59 degrees Fahrenheit. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, in this and similar graphs, the large areas of reduced outgoing infrared for specific wavelengths, has falsely suggested some of the outgoing energy has been trapped.
But that would be a gross misinterpretation. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The large areas of reduced outgoing infrared suggest about 20% could be trapped but that disagrees with evidence from satellite data and energy budgets, indicating at least 99.6% of incoming solar energy, still escapes as infrared.
So, if not trapped where does the missing infrared go? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The misinterpretation arises because, when greenhouse gases emit downward heat via a limited number of different wavelengths, the resulting warmed surface then radiates that heat via all possible wavelengths, and that allows more infrared heat to escape via wavelengths of “atmospheric windows" where greenhouse gases do not impede the heat's escape to space. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, the large reduction of outgoing infrared wave lengths centered around 15 microns, which are wave lengths CO2 and water vapor absorb, indicates CO2 is involved in the greatest intensity of re-directed downward infrared heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The area below the green curve indicates how much energy is affected by just CO2, with the remaining reduction above caused by water vapor.
</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The red curve shows that despite a doubling of CO2 concentrations to 800 ppm, the downward flow of infrared at these wavelengths is only increased by 1%</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas and absorbs and re-directs infrared heat from a much larger range of wave lengths. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But again, for every wavelength of re-directed downward heat, that heat is not trapped, a significant portion of that heat always escapes unimpeded through the infrared "atmospheric windows". And the longer the nights, the greater the escape of greenhouse heat.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEEsl5-U2P-m_BMJGbug67vXBdRqRwrsTEQ6BPywmhGEl8l01ZMt9rpY4d6J8FBL1qMMiEbvlhPK4Y2rd-qWFlYRtwhDG3SP08wVP_h_F44SNUi0Ytbiya4cpvN8QC1MFBItroJI1Fd_ylyhBV-L9GpAa52YWYg0pVu0ZuuY0uw1XpNIVatKa5aOdWaw/s2305/MEDITERANNEAN%20INFRARED.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="962" data-original-width="2305" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEEsl5-U2P-m_BMJGbug67vXBdRqRwrsTEQ6BPywmhGEl8l01ZMt9rpY4d6J8FBL1qMMiEbvlhPK4Y2rd-qWFlYRtwhDG3SP08wVP_h_F44SNUi0Ytbiya4cpvN8QC1MFBItroJI1Fd_ylyhBV-L9GpAa52YWYg0pVu0ZuuY0uw1XpNIVatKa5aOdWaw/w640-h268/MEDITERANNEAN%20INFRARED.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /> </span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Wijngaarden and Happer also modeled how changes in solar heating due to latitude, affected escaping infrared. Surface temperatures common to the Mediterranean would ideally emit infrared with a maximum intensity of about 140 units
And.... Freely escaping infrared through atmospheric windows would range between 110 and 50 units</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Over much hotter surface temperatures as observed in the Sahara, ideally emitted infrared increases to a maximum intensity of about 190 units
Accordingly in the Sahara, the more freely escaping infrared via the atmospheric windows also increases to a range between 160 and 100 units</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgQN0_Gfw1lDNstr3AvmyEoVycnRtpJj_4XQ7Qa50hPpnwLE03W8Q1PKjiqDB-oNUPhK7ssXzU1caOsPpNjCL2nb9v0ApCj8MPWDW1c8_tfE2Xy6JculvCf1gDSnNayi3Uz8zyo-Uhqf95UDMzaxaSmWv1gb035KayNxwR70Qr0PMRgum4GF0wmrPdmA/s2305/SAHARA%20INFRAred.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1425" data-original-width="2305" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgQN0_Gfw1lDNstr3AvmyEoVycnRtpJj_4XQ7Qa50hPpnwLE03W8Q1PKjiqDB-oNUPhK7ssXzU1caOsPpNjCL2nb9v0ApCj8MPWDW1c8_tfE2Xy6JculvCf1gDSnNayi3Uz8zyo-Uhqf95UDMzaxaSmWv1gb035KayNxwR70Qr0PMRgum4GF0wmrPdmA/w640-h396/SAHARA%20INFRAred.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus, atmospheric windows enable negative feedback that reduces overheating.
whether the surface temperatures are raised by increased solar energy or by recycled greenhouse infrared, higher temperatures cause more infrared to freely escape unimpeded through those atmospheric windows. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Wijngaarden and Happer also confirmed what other researchers had found. There is no greenhouse warming over Antarctica in the winter. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The wavelengths dominated by CO2 emit more infrared back to space than Antarctica’s cold surface could ideally emit.
This surprising result happens because the heat trapped by non-greenhouse molecules comprising the warm air that is constantly transported southward to the Antarctic, continues to collide with CO2 which can then radiate heat out to space. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnCPaqhVvQ7P0Bw5-tBWemHScr8DG67yK8-IUjuYhMCE3S-9OWvhOpJX1k795gjJDxQGnJkjobBVN-pJf714Em9Vpwyd9DTKQpceSiiSXU74afmVyY6qtD6q2qN1xMpxHAu4LbIj8DOYhx4DNmP5GQ0JiEXoQq4CUi6oDljaoKs0v8IDShAOYzlq-9Qg/s2635/antarctica%20infrared.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1562" data-original-width="2635" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnCPaqhVvQ7P0Bw5-tBWemHScr8DG67yK8-IUjuYhMCE3S-9OWvhOpJX1k795gjJDxQGnJkjobBVN-pJf714Em9Vpwyd9DTKQpceSiiSXU74afmVyY6qtD6q2qN1xMpxHAu4LbIj8DOYhx4DNmP5GQ0JiEXoQq4CUi6oDljaoKs0v8IDShAOYzlq-9Qg/w640-h380/antarctica%20infrared.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Unusual warm events in Antarctica that the media ignorantly proclaims to be caused by CO2 warming, are caused when warm winds originating from elsewhere descend to Antarctica’s surface, as observed during its many fohn storm events</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So, beware of anyone telling you that increasing CO2 is increasingly trapping heat and causing a climate crisis. They are either ignorant of the science, or dishonestly manipulating your thinking to advance their political agendas. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9dz_J1lssaaxedAAy4V3gpWWkvg6K4us_FkRZteY8roioIOlRSg4CF5lNTF2duBrEX7ixkM9HfmxRuTi0v5E4Jnnupm5JpaiSB6rYRY_n2OOBqZVbA7qwGhZyclU0KBBnM4pxEsDy59amfpB1AE5ZjQg3CFumMr93ko2Ig56DXHuoy0TjoykoFEktCw/s1420/earth5.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1170" data-original-width="1420" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9dz_J1lssaaxedAAy4V3gpWWkvg6K4us_FkRZteY8roioIOlRSg4CF5lNTF2duBrEX7ixkM9HfmxRuTi0v5E4Jnnupm5JpaiSB6rYRY_n2OOBqZVbA7qwGhZyclU0KBBnM4pxEsDy59amfpB1AE5ZjQg3CFumMr93ko2Ig56DXHuoy0TjoykoFEktCw/w640-h528/earth5.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Truly .... there is no climate crisis</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Our democracy depends on a diverse array of good critical thinkers. So, please shun mindless group think. Instead embrace renowned scientist, Thomas Huxley’s advice</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin. </span></p>
<p></p><p></p>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-47159352108196079732022-06-07T11:12:00.001-07:002022-06-07T11:12:19.604-07:00 Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change part 5: Clouds the Moderators of Warming and Extreme Heat<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihziFIjCg9hXj46ZpmCmJpbp15404NEpteG-t9SqaEC4rtpuG4RAKxKrRFy3uG7aGmMO60miw_pD4AZIpR-O6nHYekrZ_W1mUUphyeADZhay4oxHwpGf0h2xbbc1wjvt1HjEYD6dKYHRQnIDrs2cAILxUrSTgZvVVSpuANUOBdXMu2SGpkjhIbbqnnbA/s2470/clouds%20truth.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1663" data-original-width="2470" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihziFIjCg9hXj46ZpmCmJpbp15404NEpteG-t9SqaEC4rtpuG4RAKxKrRFy3uG7aGmMO60miw_pD4AZIpR-O6nHYekrZ_W1mUUphyeADZhay4oxHwpGf0h2xbbc1wjvt1HjEYD6dKYHRQnIDrs2cAILxUrSTgZvVVSpuANUOBdXMu2SGpkjhIbbqnnbA/w640-h430/clouds%20truth.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Below is the transcript from the video </span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://youtu.be/tiQ6bLiWNmw" target="_blank"> Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change part 5: Clouds the Moderators of Warming and Extreme Heat</a></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a class="style-scope ytcp-video-info" href="https://youtu.be/tiQ6bLiWNmw" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: Roboto, Noto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/tiQ6bLiWNmw</a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone to the final part of the Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change - here I examine the impacts of changing cloud cover.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">On balance, clouds cool our climate</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Conversely, fewer clouds will produce global warming, as well as extreme local heat waves. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">As climate scientist Kevin Trenberth explained in 2009,
“Global warming is mainly caused from increases in absorbed solar radiation due to decreasing cloud cover.” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Most climate scientists admit, the great difficulties in estimating cloud effects have caused significant uncertainty regards global warming calculations. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQvJUWElk73y9OC9NOLIl-1dfZT08hpU7tTQ69h-A5rEW0--jAPS5njxjuXtdADd-Vl-6oMT-MfpSt48gvQN0swSCdrFDpQO4XZ3dCNy4idFbVUTtp23FcZpN01Hhr8-cA9zpRVTdpB-DWT_pGvYez6MfQSP1hlS9dELFpBQL7PFG9Bg3Np7ytgWvow/s1156/high%20lo%20cloud%20solar%20reflect.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="1156" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJQvJUWElk73y9OC9NOLIl-1dfZT08hpU7tTQ69h-A5rEW0--jAPS5njxjuXtdADd-Vl-6oMT-MfpSt48gvQN0swSCdrFDpQO4XZ3dCNy4idFbVUTtp23FcZpN01Hhr8-cA9zpRVTdpB-DWT_pGvYez6MfQSP1hlS9dELFpBQL7PFG9Bg3Np7ytgWvow/w640-h354/high%20lo%20cloud%20solar%20reflect.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Because the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere rapidly declines with altitude, High clouds are usually thin and reflect a minimum of sunlight, but still have a greenhouse effect.
Whereas low clouds are denser and will significantly reduce the solar radiation absorbed at the earth's surface</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">According to calculations in wild 2019, on average clouds reduce about 54 watts per meter squared of the sun's energy</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">One quick side note here:
Non-scientists are often put-off by the unfamiliar measurement used by all climate scientists of watts per meter squared.
But it is just a measure of energy flowing each second into and out of the earth. For our purposes, all one needs to understand is the greater the number of watts, the greater the energy flow. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">To determine if humans are disrupting the earth's energy balance, scientists construct energy budgets as illustrated here. But the amount of information is so dense, it readily confuses the general public. To help clarify, I’ll guide you through the important points. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">It is also important to pay attention to the plus or minus numbers that reflect how uncertain each calculation is. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4YwFacu_b0SzsUoNekHBkFEkwncT6sv2KYlhuD68nwx-q_g9smkAWecJ6lxpayTySw20B8R1NtCG-uBfI40rixt2tkOi25v7yL1D-CySv3ijeo-rWYbuk6ZsOwZUrxDdWccgM_JtfmKgYQvXfNzWXyCVT_zY9Ic_K2NTXRD3thRCzdyxIkH9wDVJB2g/s2837/energy%20budget%20stephens%202012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1764" data-original-width="2837" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4YwFacu_b0SzsUoNekHBkFEkwncT6sv2KYlhuD68nwx-q_g9smkAWecJ6lxpayTySw20B8R1NtCG-uBfI40rixt2tkOi25v7yL1D-CySv3ijeo-rWYbuk6ZsOwZUrxDdWccgM_JtfmKgYQvXfNzWXyCVT_zY9Ic_K2NTXRD3thRCzdyxIkH9wDVJB2g/w640-h398/energy%20budget%20stephens%202012.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">For example, here they calculate that the earth's surface absorbs just 6 tenths of a watt more than it emits back to space with that imbalance causing the earth to warm. But being good scientists, Stephens (2012) also published that their calculations could be 17 watts too high or 17 watts too low, reflecting just how unsettled the science is. So, beware of the scientists' illustrations that do not accurately publish their uncertainty. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Some estimates are very accurate. Satellite measurements of solar radiation have very little uncertainty. After averaging for day and night, and differences between the equator and the poles, energy budgets begin with an average solar input of 340 watts per meter squared at the top of our atmosphere. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">After subtracting estimates of the energy absorbed by the atmosphere and reflected by clouds or the earth's surface, they estimate each square meter of the earth's surface absorbs on average between 159 and 165 watts. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">What confuses most people is why isn't the earth cooling if the surface absorbs about 160 watts of solar energy, but then releases more than twice that energy away as infrared? </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The confusion arises due to the greenhouse effect. Primarily water vapor and clouds, plus carbon dioxide and other minor greenhouse gases readily absorb most infrared energy.
But in less than a microsecond, greenhouse gases immediately lose that energy either via a collision with O2 and N2, or emit that energy, with half that energy being directed back towards the surface and recycled. The recycling of infrared energy is called greenhouse warming, but it would be more accurately called delayed cooling.
The more energy that is recycled the slower the surface cools. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Click-bait mainstream media and politicians greatly mislead the public when suggesting CO2 traps heat energy.
Each time heat energy is recycled back towards the surface, the earth quickly emits 10% to 30% of that energy as infrared energy in wavelengths that greenhouse gases cannot absorb.
So, with every recycling of downward infrared energy, 10 to 30% leaks back to space uninhibited and it exits at nearly the speed of light. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Clouds increase the amount of greenhouse heat that gets recycled, and according to wild 2019, on average clouds re-direct 28 watts per meter squared back to the surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, because clouds reflect away twice as much solar energy as they recycle, on balance, clouds cool the earth by 26 watts per meter squared. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Eventually it is estimated that 239.7 watts per squared, and an uncertain plus or minus 3.3 watts, escape to space. The claim that CO2 is causing a warming crisis by creating a heating energy imbalance of 0.6 watts per meter squared is questionable simply due a level of uncertainty that is 5 times greater than their claim</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Furthermore, when compared to the IPCC’s estimated 2.5 watts of added greenhouse gas warming, reduced cloud cover can also amplify solar heating. A cloudless sky can have 10 times the heating effect of CO2. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmIyXMH5rG80Iiz69qr2Rr8h18e0C0_s2Se9Byx9ELNf4AfWpGpDm4yhagd5dygQo_yI3kYh0oTScH5sNBE4Y5xlW5qaRvGVJeO3OwgvKc0kbUOtKMdHMtn8cC0E1nTp0T2vXEnBVT3_ZhprbxWWzYoOKa0TECq5LAv-ZEIL_7jwlpliGJ6S9GfpfIeg/s1214/Hadley%20circ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="472" data-original-width="1214" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmIyXMH5rG80Iiz69qr2Rr8h18e0C0_s2Se9Byx9ELNf4AfWpGpDm4yhagd5dygQo_yI3kYh0oTScH5sNBE4Y5xlW5qaRvGVJeO3OwgvKc0kbUOtKMdHMtn8cC0E1nTp0T2vXEnBVT3_ZhprbxWWzYoOKa0TECq5LAv-ZEIL_7jwlpliGJ6S9GfpfIeg/w640-h248/Hadley%20circ.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The earth’s atmospheric circulation causes both moist regions with dense cooling clouds and hotter drier regions with clear skies. The primary driver of atmospheric circulation is the Hadley Circulation. The intertropical convergence zone or ITCZ is a region near the equator where the north and south trade winds converge, driving moist air upwards and generating towering cumulonimbus rain clouds. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus, the ITCZ covers a region of heavy precipitation which sustains the earth's equatorial rainforests. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF2Vc38U9zE94BWDwqfNCQVWzgvkhnmAyJnzg-Mfb_emQnovQkC_9ZkRFoBLjvDpSfKpk_-FnO6Xehz91hFacKrR8d35oyhS5llptKbjX_XmeJBaeMWkwp9aqkkneu86NGXDXEoe65HC3btvRhQCpC1adcHQ4vI9YBw38owufwbzv4vSRjfDWwKNfH5w/s1216/global%20desertd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="1216" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF2Vc38U9zE94BWDwqfNCQVWzgvkhnmAyJnzg-Mfb_emQnovQkC_9ZkRFoBLjvDpSfKpk_-FnO6Xehz91hFacKrR8d35oyhS5llptKbjX_XmeJBaeMWkwp9aqkkneu86NGXDXEoe65HC3btvRhQCpC1adcHQ4vI9YBw38owufwbzv4vSRjfDWwKNfH5w/w640-h216/global%20desertd.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">What goes up must come down. After the moisture rains out, the air is dry and sinks to the north and south of the ITCZ. The sinking dry air prevents cloud formation, minimizes rainfall, and increases extreme solar heating, characteristic of the world's deserts. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">When incoming solar energy is averaged across the globe, it obscures critical local dynamics caused by clouds. Whereas the global average of surface solar heating is about 160 watts per meter squared, at midday under clear tropical skies, the surface can receive 1000 watts.
Under the clearer skies at the edge of the Sahara Desert, Aswan, Egypt constantly receives 160% of the averaged solar heating (or 263 watts per meter squared) </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ457a_nP6_4bw0cvblTXngIRN0W_ruBAfy3ky2T1_ePCm2pspApa5H_RcQp0DxP6KQYKb7gOXVGJF5w-k8Lw400rnDubUmmC90iiWCNoTJ5URi777Hv7Mc5zIOXq7jDvT303_p9KfuvR50W4fgMHeiNF8SeWHwInA1pKaVC5Uull_giYb4SGXFqJx5g/s3382/max%20min%20deserts.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2025" data-original-width="3382" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ457a_nP6_4bw0cvblTXngIRN0W_ruBAfy3ky2T1_ePCm2pspApa5H_RcQp0DxP6KQYKb7gOXVGJF5w-k8Lw400rnDubUmmC90iiWCNoTJ5URi777Hv7Mc5zIOXq7jDvT303_p9KfuvR50W4fgMHeiNF8SeWHwInA1pKaVC5Uull_giYb4SGXFqJx5g/w640-h384/max%20min%20deserts.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Cloudless desert skies also cause extreme weather swings. According to NASA, deserts experience the most extreme annual maximum temperatures, averaging 38 Celsius or over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
With fewer clouds, surface heat more rapidly cools at night as less infrared heat is recycled. And temperatures can drop by 75 degrees Fahrenheit falling below freezing. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In 1913, Death Valley reported the world's record high daily temperature of 56.7 Celsius or 134 Fahrenheit.
Just 6 months earlier, similar dry cloud free conditions produced Death Valley’s coldest minimum temperature of minus 9 degrees Celsius or 15 Fahrenheit. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">On smaller scales, heat domes form wherever descending air currents prevent convection and reduce cloud cover, causing extreme solar heating, </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGWTisbWmJOJguef6UkU39rkv435IIeb2ZdNFXkK_6UhZI2X34iRYwwmyVaMv-7_69T05Es6DIyyJit-jOdX9OdB-D49185AF1JVe7Z_z98THnkX4UD1siqBCmSQVXcKc4NUNzebPkVbPo9GxEVWqWvJGlesG9K4Y8iAVNyMUbswLoN2LRYTtCG-ih4A/s1242/heat%20dome%20canada.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="1242" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGWTisbWmJOJguef6UkU39rkv435IIeb2ZdNFXkK_6UhZI2X34iRYwwmyVaMv-7_69T05Es6DIyyJit-jOdX9OdB-D49185AF1JVe7Z_z98THnkX4UD1siqBCmSQVXcKc4NUNzebPkVbPo9GxEVWqWvJGlesG9K4Y8iAVNyMUbswLoN2LRYTtCG-ih4A/w640-h338/heat%20dome%20canada.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Jet stream troughs promote rising convection, more clouds, and cooler temperatures. Jet stream ridges cause dry descending air, less cloudy skies, and high temperatures</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The cloudless skies beneath a stalled jet stream ridge caused the stifling heat dome over northwestern north America in 2021.
As detailed in part 2, that heat dome generated Canada’s record high temperatures of 49.6 Celsius or 121.3 Fahrenheit. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">On a global scale several studies have reported cloud cover has been decreasing since at least 1980, with the advent of satellite coverage. A 2014 study determined there was a 6.8% decrease in cloud cover over the northern hemisphere which increased solar heating by 5.4 watts.
That declining cloud effect adds twice as much solar energy than what the IPCC attributes to rising greenhouse gases, and over 3 times the heating attributed to rising CO2. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEx_0qdJXlXIyfMWXn8b53fRBOKF4eYf28MwvOf24fEehzWkw6Hx04xQ1itDXVHE_6N8dMz1dTzY0zrpcRbAdeiLlDh_l_8AWoGSr8-x4PQPAfcsgGtD5JPYPxOvm25eu7DDeSkKnNUwAGh_GIey1UaJZbGZgnOGp4z5d2u7cxa4se0x1TsZsObsYzSw/s1214/NH%20declining%20coud%20cover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="776" data-original-width="1214" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEx_0qdJXlXIyfMWXn8b53fRBOKF4eYf28MwvOf24fEehzWkw6Hx04xQ1itDXVHE_6N8dMz1dTzY0zrpcRbAdeiLlDh_l_8AWoGSr8-x4PQPAfcsgGtD5JPYPxOvm25eu7DDeSkKnNUwAGh_GIey1UaJZbGZgnOGp4z5d2u7cxa4se0x1TsZsObsYzSw/w640-h410/NH%20declining%20coud%20cover.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">A 2022 paper reported a similar decrease in cloud cover, noticing the rise in global temperatures correlated with decreasing cloud cover. Thus, researchers also argued cloud cover has a greater radiative effect on global warming than rising CO2.
</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH3ZqesWcBP_gF3Ju_aMzycPMQuK04VT0gjdAuwH-kLnvWOqUGn6Y3Cacb7UKSXJmelAhqiym4Inb2Y9aS12wfL5CsvCAjcbk3XW98WTZ48JEqLenOfvojLR-YzAbKqFtCsolqvs4SV12tI1tV9pLcCGQD8HTmudtQmhQ4lQVfUUxfo-b8CZFV8VsPYA/s1202/declline%20cloud%20%20rise%20temps%20jonas%202022.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1202" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH3ZqesWcBP_gF3Ju_aMzycPMQuK04VT0gjdAuwH-kLnvWOqUGn6Y3Cacb7UKSXJmelAhqiym4Inb2Y9aS12wfL5CsvCAjcbk3XW98WTZ48JEqLenOfvojLR-YzAbKqFtCsolqvs4SV12tI1tV9pLcCGQD8HTmudtQmhQ4lQVfUUxfo-b8CZFV8VsPYA/w640-h380/declline%20cloud%20%20rise%20temps%20jonas%202022.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">However, different types of clouds have different causes and very different heating and cooling effects, so more detailed analyses beyond total cloud cover are needed to correctly assess the effects of changing cloud cover.
Low level clouds below 2000 meters, significantly reduce solar heating and minimally add to any greenhouse warming. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7YAAAz1BP--mUAhrBjGylSNx5Du4P-3zFrdRyimcNS0ZQdmCzlTdzHrCbdSgeLpip9aCz9vmTPxlt8J5VotM5PJVNclXdelyttF8m2h3p6UbwOg_Qh73J7i59__bhWVHihRNYHNwvnK64DtW9dRZhtbIfydosBxgUxHczzgo73vQuFQ8nm4_R0tZZ3Q/s1210/cloud%20variety.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="788" data-original-width="1210" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7YAAAz1BP--mUAhrBjGylSNx5Du4P-3zFrdRyimcNS0ZQdmCzlTdzHrCbdSgeLpip9aCz9vmTPxlt8J5VotM5PJVNclXdelyttF8m2h3p6UbwOg_Qh73J7i59__bhWVHihRNYHNwvnK64DtW9dRZhtbIfydosBxgUxHczzgo73vQuFQ8nm4_R0tZZ3Q/w640-h416/cloud%20variety.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Stratus clouds form in flat layers when moist air sits over cooler surfaces causing, water vapor to condense into liquid drops. Moist air traveling over regions of cold ocean upwelling produces low stratus clouds, also known as fog. Also, when a warm air mass gradually moves over a cold air mass stratus clouds form. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">In contrast, the lumpier tops of cumulus clouds form when heated surfaces cause several currents of rising moist air that condense at higher altitudes. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">If there is an abundant supply of moisture, such as over tropical oceans, the latent heat released from condensing moisture powers the rising momentum that grows a low-level cumulus cloud into a towering cumulonimbus that rises to the stratosphere. Because the stratosphere is warmer than the rising air, these cumulonimbus clouds flatten out at the stratosphere boundary causing the characteristic flat anvil top. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">High altitude cirrus clouds are thinner and don't reflect much solar heat but do have a small greenhouse effect causing net warming.
Cirrus clouds are often produced by the outflow from the anvil top of cumulonimbus clouds. Because cirrus clouds are composed of ice crystals and slow to evaporate, cirrus are often transported far from their point of origin. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Observing the narrowing of the ITCZ during the decades of recent warming and the resulting reduction of cirrus cloud production, MIT’s Dr. Lindzen postulated the "iris effect", a negative feedback mechanism promoting climate balance by reducing cirrus caused greenhouse warming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Adding to the complexities of cloud science is the diversity of cloud life cycles, with most individual clouds growing and dissipating in less than one hour. Their varied lifetimes are being better determined by geo-stationary satellites.
The Madden Julian Oscillation, first discovered in 1971, is a natural climate dynamic causing growing and dying clouds to move across the tropical ocean at speeds between 14 to 19 kilometers an hour, creating alternating regions of heavy rains and marine heat waves. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglB2so_xn34hoKW-obKTi9PrZv_FujKuvVu8kw94gB9sEsDFoqlGBBOKEOpkm26kBGLxm017osSigkTvEJyocvIAOfz9X9VyvyHrRRSPs0yvX27WWS99JTMdYqqnPbWoXkXj5uGJJGEGMLE0NkfnMNG3WZsatjzYOtdRGORPsthEhs6C2i8FbGQi6grA/s990/MJO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="990" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglB2so_xn34hoKW-obKTi9PrZv_FujKuvVu8kw94gB9sEsDFoqlGBBOKEOpkm26kBGLxm017osSigkTvEJyocvIAOfz9X9VyvyHrRRSPs0yvX27WWS99JTMdYqqnPbWoXkXj5uGJJGEGMLE0NkfnMNG3WZsatjzYOtdRGORPsthEhs6C2i8FbGQi6grA/w640-h290/MJO.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Heated waters of the Indian ocean warm pool initiate rising convection that gives birth to a cumulonimbus cloud.
As the cloud grows, it reduces the amount of infrared heat that escapes to space.
However, it also increasingly blocks solar heating, and on balance causes the ocean surface to cool which initiates the clouds decay. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">After the moisture rained out of the rising air in the growing cloud, the remaining dry air descends further to the east suppressing convection
The cloudless skies beneath the descending air causes intense solar heating of the ocean surface. According to Wirasatriya (2017) 60% of the equatorial hot events with sea surface temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius for 6 to 30 days, are associated with this phase of the MJO
Eventually surface heating initiates a new region of convection and new cumulus cloud formation</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The intense convection of the Madden Julian oscillation also initiates other wave trains of rising and sinking air that stretches across the hemisphere.
The wave train's high-pressure areas can create heatwaves as far away as the Atlantic. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpDKididazj1V8-NOwpDnin-Iv1PwbHCEn5RfVE4uWLWSEBYvt2YD0cFXO5whgGxWBcvze-xGh9xFjTx8HM2iBAyR-HgMZiyv1LmCMvFrJKQwMHvWfloZpB89WFRRk-8v9vmipvEpk15kx2WvB9TeCQOzfbzeyyWFrcgqvRueJ0JgkvTO_23BKEV1Ng/s990/MJO%20wave%20train.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="990" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpDKididazj1V8-NOwpDnin-Iv1PwbHCEn5RfVE4uWLWSEBYvt2YD0cFXO5whgGxWBcvze-xGh9xFjTx8HM2iBAyR-HgMZiyv1LmCMvFrJKQwMHvWfloZpB89WFRRk-8v9vmipvEpk15kx2WvB9TeCQOzfbzeyyWFrcgqvRueJ0JgkvTO_23BKEV1Ng/w640-h178/MJO%20wave%20train.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The greatest amount of solar heat flux into the ocean happens along the equatorial Pacific, and that heat then gets transported across the globe and to warms the earth.
The cloudless areas of intense solar heating during the Madden Julian Oscillation's hot events contribute to the increased heat flux into the western and central Pacific. But due to upwelling of colder waters in the eastern Pacific, the Madden Julian oscillation doesn’t reach that region. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzbeiY10OCJN1CElLJO6vn4_TSpoGQ87Vvp8cbYSYJY8PH3lDcDemN1xDx9g6p9V65cHVX_xM6g3MSDs8YJr1W92UVpc8R7GFPX3nVDUoSEWbMDEetNHgtw79Zdyryq1V53JAxV0IMsg9Z5OFkjB7xcw_w7zkm8mule4-Hript6MQ3plckDHmfT9GkdA/s3442/Heat%20flux%20pacific%20Huang%202015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1998" data-original-width="3442" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzbeiY10OCJN1CElLJO6vn4_TSpoGQ87Vvp8cbYSYJY8PH3lDcDemN1xDx9g6p9V65cHVX_xM6g3MSDs8YJr1W92UVpc8R7GFPX3nVDUoSEWbMDEetNHgtw79Zdyryq1V53JAxV0IMsg9Z5OFkjB7xcw_w7zkm8mule4-Hript6MQ3plckDHmfT9GkdA/w640-h372/Heat%20flux%20pacific%20Huang%202015.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">As detailed in part 3 of this series, it is the clearer skies in the eastern Pacific associated with La Nina like ocean conditions that enables the greatest amount of heat flux into the eastern Pacific. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Not only do La Nina like conditions in the Pacific increase ocean heating, La Ninas and the related negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, expand the Hadley circulation’s region of reduced clouds and increased solar heating</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmLw_U2mYAIvwoG68Zgj6WnNjV_wBX1nJdljeL9L4b-WwBM77DgzuC2o0Z4o1QMYQYeUiORUHCc1gq6UFwCqJArrD43rX7bhcYH2wEV8g1N1Y32dZEHNy2KYgwXitH-RmtsmzWI-vcA5O-rg2wt6QhYdPOzinIRJc6o_p4An6jPK4pUC3KenMADl0M5A/s1212/La%20Nina.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="538" data-original-width="1212" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmLw_U2mYAIvwoG68Zgj6WnNjV_wBX1nJdljeL9L4b-WwBM77DgzuC2o0Z4o1QMYQYeUiORUHCc1gq6UFwCqJArrD43rX7bhcYH2wEV8g1N1Y32dZEHNy2KYgwXitH-RmtsmzWI-vcA5O-rg2wt6QhYdPOzinIRJc6o_p4An6jPK4pUC3KenMADl0M5A/w640-h284/La%20Nina.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">And same as the Madden Julian Oscillation, La Nina's center of intense convection in the western Pacific, initiates hemispheric wave trains and alternating regions of high and low pressure.
The descending air under one high pressure region resulted in clear skies, increased solar heating and calm winds that reduce evaporative cooling, and produced a notorious long-lived heat wave in the north-eastern Pacific dubbed "The Blob"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR1Vt48Ys6xrX5gduRKVQ2t6oQ3kBkWy8r80f_d4LiJauJtAeePt23mRT7KXrznzgoQQdBYX60MqOXAzrugds9lkCM-XzRj2F50PSyLbMDEYBydmjRwsqZbs3IrocRaAMmaSYQ8o98BLXZGpYEXaIatrCLMosNLVbpnwe44eJBPJUAOQNTChDURUwXWg/s1212/La%20Nina%20wave%20train.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="1212" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR1Vt48Ys6xrX5gduRKVQ2t6oQ3kBkWy8r80f_d4LiJauJtAeePt23mRT7KXrznzgoQQdBYX60MqOXAzrugds9lkCM-XzRj2F50PSyLbMDEYBydmjRwsqZbs3IrocRaAMmaSYQ8o98BLXZGpYEXaIatrCLMosNLVbpnwe44eJBPJUAOQNTChDURUwXWg/w640-h184/La%20Nina%20wave%20train.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Every 3 to 7 years an El Nino causes an eastward flow of warm water, that increases cloudiness and reduces heat flux into the eastern Pacific. The first extreme El Nino of the 21st century happened in 2015 and 2016</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">That El Nino shifted the center of intense convection eastward, which also produces different wave train pathways. Accordingly, the 2016 El Nino's new wave train ended the hot Blob's existence. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjshrKNPnneVHcy5tp8Eb48ARD58N_3FCo6ynqSE_PZ0XKoufgqQtfVqPUpalVPKCx-9V-CXi-3JKWzPwvFb02CNhe2azccMrxfMC36KqPWu2w75LUFfYTOvirG_Em6q0tEHcsFbJ-MpikBFAgGXMxMMMan6r_y_ql5SN2xURTbq2J7cXFoWYc2Bztf6A/s1066/El%20Nino.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="594" data-original-width="1066" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjshrKNPnneVHcy5tp8Eb48ARD58N_3FCo6ynqSE_PZ0XKoufgqQtfVqPUpalVPKCx-9V-CXi-3JKWzPwvFb02CNhe2azccMrxfMC36KqPWu2w75LUFfYTOvirG_Em6q0tEHcsFbJ-MpikBFAgGXMxMMMan6r_y_ql5SN2xURTbq2J7cXFoWYc2Bztf6A/w640-h356/El%20Nino.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUY-sePbMNYQwipOQ3VjiSAtQMLUqvmCrl5a8HIlqs5RoWJRYL28azztEvAARJ7Pip6GlE9Dp5md97WqP26LDI2IglxFMosZXtcL04btPzNM4U08tnnjAHJRaFRZa4yqGJ6SA6SD5dk0CQSw8RA1FZvJ9ZJr7s0af2u3gdRtCwjfW0My5ydyWMI-LdA/s1066/el%20nino%20wave%20train.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="1066" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfUY-sePbMNYQwipOQ3VjiSAtQMLUqvmCrl5a8HIlqs5RoWJRYL28azztEvAARJ7Pip6GlE9Dp5md97WqP26LDI2IglxFMosZXtcL04btPzNM4U08tnnjAHJRaFRZa4yqGJ6SA6SD5dk0CQSw8RA1FZvJ9ZJr7s0af2u3gdRtCwjfW0My5ydyWMI-LdA/w640-h224/el%20nino%20wave%20train.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Coral reefs of Fiji, Tonga & Rarotonga have recorded 150 years of ocean warming and are sensitive to temperature changes caused by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">La Nina-like conditions during each negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase reduce clouds in the eastern Pacific.
Accordingly, during each negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase, ocean heat content has increased</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiCe67NOuxkVUMOdU3BlJMuPYEsTLqtemRLk_wXigaDZTPOSvE0JhWmNAunij8Am482PX11mZZ584jO7R7mS409xb7HBOPH8P5W1ngDWBmIZpiJhJ1Rc_mS6iyX6ri-Bl85UYbrxJ-YDyE2setrrrw1rX9VKEsnSENY8jGGj_XHl2iWYj3_VuYDGEjzQ/s2750/FTR%20%20La%20Nina%20ocean%20heat%20content.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2135" data-original-width="2750" height="496" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiCe67NOuxkVUMOdU3BlJMuPYEsTLqtemRLk_wXigaDZTPOSvE0JhWmNAunij8Am482PX11mZZ584jO7R7mS409xb7HBOPH8P5W1ngDWBmIZpiJhJ1Rc_mS6iyX6ri-Bl85UYbrxJ-YDyE2setrrrw1rX9VKEsnSENY8jGGj_XHl2iWYj3_VuYDGEjzQ/w640-h496/FTR%20%20La%20Nina%20ocean%20heat%20content.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">El Nino-like conditions dominate during each positive PDO phase, generating a cloudier eastern Pacific & reduced ocean heating</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Several studies have reported that the Hadley circulation is widening,
Especially during La Ninas and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillations
As the regions of descending air currents and reduced-cloud cover expand poleward, heat flux into the Pacific increases. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Both observational and modeling studies find
That as the world warmed the Hadley circulation intensified and the ITCZ narrowed.
As illustrated by Su (2017) the narrowing of the ITCZ causes the region of cumulonimbus clouds to narrow but extend further upwards (the darker blue cloud), while reducing the cirrus clouds that before had extended away from the anvil tops (the gray cloud outlines). That dynamic is similar to Lindzen's “Iris Effect” that would reduce cirrus greenhouse warming. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TeiXxQqcyQ2_mA5J2eP8Q8fHYzR5SKJCs1vt4SkOM8TCBC7eTE4YtzQKUrGIme9zg6X6Ab5ikDiM85Hqr5Dt7oRbJnk7BjZ5UTTbl6pX9I1A_H1gt1Szq4s0XHtH4xEViBng7MXHa1szp0yqsuHjKuKuno8-L_TYIWt6S3D9SBU0G8NfN3CYXprMRQ/s1368/widening%20HAdley%20SU.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="742" data-original-width="1368" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7TeiXxQqcyQ2_mA5J2eP8Q8fHYzR5SKJCs1vt4SkOM8TCBC7eTE4YtzQKUrGIme9zg6X6Ab5ikDiM85Hqr5Dt7oRbJnk7BjZ5UTTbl6pX9I1A_H1gt1Szq4s0XHtH4xEViBng7MXHa1szp0yqsuHjKuKuno8-L_TYIWt6S3D9SBU0G8NfN3CYXprMRQ/w640-h348/widening%20HAdley%20SU.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">But there would also be a greater warming effect caused by the reduction in low level subtropical clouds that allows greater solar heating. As Shin 2012 and others have reported, the Hadley Circulation's intensification widens the regions of descending air currents, reducing cloud cover and expanding the dry lands as illustrated by the change from larger low level clouds areas before (colored gray) evolving into smaller low level cloud cover (illustrated in darker blue). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The regions with the greatest reduction in global cloud cover occur where heat flux into the oceans is greatest. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">So, to whatever degree the cause of global warming, whether the Big 5 Natural Causes or added CO2, the resulting reduction in low level tropical cloud cover would serve as positive feedback amplifying any warming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">The Big 5 Natural Causes of climate change together, do explain most of the 150 years of global warming. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHyqqZ1iWxteeUv3ltVWNpyu_nqyCaFclZnaHaOk58v5kgbwFhJqpfXZwqTsjMUKilq-45d9ZGmQGDHPDCPR4iUBfhLGsecNXj-Gr58oLC7UnT3WIUzP82IkRYg_LJ_DKRAMISfUvTbVoiGmpdKhRYJKMZ_jHmYXJZimC6VARZ9JRrIDZC1udHTPY8Ig/s1440/Crisis%20sleep%20well.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1440" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHyqqZ1iWxteeUv3ltVWNpyu_nqyCaFclZnaHaOk58v5kgbwFhJqpfXZwqTsjMUKilq-45d9ZGmQGDHPDCPR4iUBfhLGsecNXj-Gr58oLC7UnT3WIUzP82IkRYg_LJ_DKRAMISfUvTbVoiGmpdKhRYJKMZ_jHmYXJZimC6VARZ9JRrIDZC1udHTPY8Ig/w640-h300/Crisis%20sleep%20well.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">When the causes of natural climate change are fully accounted for, as good rigorous science traditionally demands, it constrains to what degree warming effects can be attributed to rising CO2..
Constrained by natural climate change, CO2 can only contribute much smaller amounts of heat than what's repeated by the narratives of alarmists seeking to control energy policies. Clearly when you follow all the science, there is no climate crisis</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Up next: Well, I’m taking a 2-week vacation will determine the topic of my next video when I return. But I encourage you to send me suggestions for topics that you feel are needed to further clarify climate science</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Until then, heed renowned scientist Thomas Huxley’s advice, skepticism is the highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: medium;">And if you appreciate the science clearly presented here, and rarely presented in mainstream media then please, give it a like, give it a share or copy the URL and email it to friends, subscribe to my channel to find all my videos or read my book Landscapes and Cycles: an Environmentalist's Journey to Climate Skepticism. </span></p><span style="font-size: medium;">
Thank you
</span><p></p></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-37849897339776236922022-05-23T22:01:00.078-07:002022-05-23T22:51:03.061-07:00The Big 5 Causes of Natural Climate Change: part 4 Landscape Changes<p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"> </span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi97T5PwEez_OGl4AOOKeiXiKzZiuFhkkmoYkW_3_twrBBk4vXSiLDLTzzKK_3GLHLZmGT5QW9W4fKv0tV1bRoGSJmHeMvdlQFc_a2hd5GRF1_6Y-uWoSH_iv4NiY79uxDqUgLLY7VDiiId_32E8j7ZHSlTVwXmnF5XgT5nDgnT155gVZqJ_C35l4s1kg/s1026/death%20valley.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="1026" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi97T5PwEez_OGl4AOOKeiXiKzZiuFhkkmoYkW_3_twrBBk4vXSiLDLTzzKK_3GLHLZmGT5QW9W4fKv0tV1bRoGSJmHeMvdlQFc_a2hd5GRF1_6Y-uWoSH_iv4NiY79uxDqUgLLY7VDiiId_32E8j7ZHSlTVwXmnF5XgT5nDgnT155gVZqJ_C35l4s1kg/w640-h372/death%20valley.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Below is the transcript to the video </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"> <a href=" https://youtu.be/ja6ZRgntPsg" target="_blank">The Big 5 Causes of Natural Climate Change part 4 Landscape Changes </a></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">available at </span><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #065fd4; font-size: 15px; text-align: left; white-space: nowrap;">https://youtu.be/ja6ZRgntPsg</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This is part 4 of the big 5 natural causes of climate change.
In parts one thru 3 we detailed how ocean currents warmed the Arctic, how more La Ninas were warming the oceans and affecting jet streams. Here I examine the dynamics that warm the land. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Although most landscape changes are caused by humans, the intent here is show how landscape changes largely account for the land's temperature trends that have been incorrectly blamed on rising CO2. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Despite the cooler global average temperature, the earth's highest recorded temperature, 56.7 Celsius or 134 Fahrenheit was set in California’s Death Valley in 1913, due to landscape features present in most desert ecosystems. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Less vegetation and bare desert soils heat surfaces to greater extremes. You have likely experienced a similar effect when walking barefoot in the summer on a cool grassy surface and then, stepped onto burning asphalt pavement. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Dry regions also produce fewer clouds allowing greater solar heating than elsewhere.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The same amount of energy can raise the temperatures of dry surfaces much more than moist surfaces.
And dark soils, reflect less and so absorb more solar energy than other surfaces</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Similarly, urban heat islands form in part because urban development has created desert-like conditions. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Because urban heat islands amplify every heat wave and set new records, people living in urban centers are more easily seduced into accepting climate crisis narratives than people living in cooler rural regions. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNKKXXpJbFamYJcQF4l-ptJC1rZO11GudlshniRJs3urVGX0Zeu-RD6uR-Lge9-R7kN9KfChmJcOgMOddV77YOw4WB2hjs_PypKSCHKOCluUZ90ZuxOW0GBo2Ft9IeelvZX9DXSCnBIKpGNBx3hVmFGaDMc9XdMbt_D89wD_KBhcsoe2cvdBLf9bXpaw/s1024/air%20heated%20by%20surface.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="651" data-original-width="1024" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNKKXXpJbFamYJcQF4l-ptJC1rZO11GudlshniRJs3urVGX0Zeu-RD6uR-Lge9-R7kN9KfChmJcOgMOddV77YOw4WB2hjs_PypKSCHKOCluUZ90ZuxOW0GBo2Ft9IeelvZX9DXSCnBIKpGNBx3hVmFGaDMc9XdMbt_D89wD_KBhcsoe2cvdBLf9bXpaw/w640-h406/air%20heated%20by%20surface.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The temperature of the air is determined by the temperature of the earth's surfaces. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">1. The sun primarily heats the earth's surface, not the air</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">2. The air then gets heated by contact with the earth's heated surface. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> And that warmed air rises and warms the atmosphere above</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">3. At higher altitudes, the rising air radiates heat back to space and cools and sinks back to the surface</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Any large- or small-scale conversions of ecosystems from forests to grasslands or grasslands to deserts increases the earth's skin surface temperatures. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbXJRBfF1rbU-C_0Wgrq19wIDzf0YcD9k1nShhiH3P999l0asVw_D-JT8MIxsNlpMucYQbqKLM2aEg8GMHret2LI_GTp68CYw8idZUkxTHoeoNiqs2nzP5JSeTNSePBVfcoGXoKV5IdtUDkIr0V9-1zocmew9xRRE8Y-bfXMNRW_ChHrGJw68OrTQg1w/s2296/Land%20surface%20temperature%20map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1521" data-original-width="2296" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbXJRBfF1rbU-C_0Wgrq19wIDzf0YcD9k1nShhiH3P999l0asVw_D-JT8MIxsNlpMucYQbqKLM2aEg8GMHret2LI_GTp68CYw8idZUkxTHoeoNiqs2nzP5JSeTNSePBVfcoGXoKV5IdtUDkIr0V9-1zocmew9xRRE8Y-bfXMNRW_ChHrGJw68OrTQg1w/w640-h424/Land%20surface%20temperature%20map.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">With the advent of the satellite era, we now have global coverage of the earth's skin surface. But skin surface temperatures can be as much as 30 degrees Celsius hotter than conventional air temperatures measured 5 feet above the surface. This map of the earth's land surface maximum temperatures illustrates how solar heating and landscapes combine to determine skin temperatures</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As expected, the coldest regions are at the poles represented in dark blue.
But surprisingly for most people, the hottest maximum temperatures are not recorded at the equator, but elsewhere due to landscape effects. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This graph correlates the earth's ecosystems with surface temperatures.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrDzhAyr0qViOfNWL0J_MeqcaNRUBsY_wmD-r0MXxcM7sLWqAmRlPSNoPqJohCVkbbXdYzN_4v1u2pEde2b7vUOG9FXMxAv-scG9hlDWzMrwASM4ywOrMt4UD0Pjd2p-IZTakwWbJVXyIjUJsF4ExRpYMRy21xODfwfTkKETBPmSa1xKyqiys9_4-Fg/s848/land%20surface%20temperatures%20and%20ecosystems.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="664" data-original-width="848" height="502" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqrDzhAyr0qViOfNWL0J_MeqcaNRUBsY_wmD-r0MXxcM7sLWqAmRlPSNoPqJohCVkbbXdYzN_4v1u2pEde2b7vUOG9FXMxAv-scG9hlDWzMrwASM4ywOrMt4UD0Pjd2p-IZTakwWbJVXyIjUJsF4ExRpYMRy21xODfwfTkKETBPmSa1xKyqiys9_4-Fg/w640-h502/land%20surface%20temperatures%20and%20ecosystems.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Forest ecosystems cover the greatest area. The northern forest across Canada and Eurasia experience maximum temperatures centered around 20 degrees Celsius or 68 degrees Fahrenheit and the equatorial forests reach maximums centered around 30 Celsius or about 86 Fahrenheit.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Grasslands typically experience higher maximum temperatures, spanning 30 to 50 degrees Celsius. The prairies of north America illustrated in yellow are warmer than north Americas eastern forests but cooler than the western deserts</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The hottest maximum temperatures are recorded in the deserts spanning 45 to 70 degrees Celsius. Death Valley's 56.7 Celsius record air temperature was observed in 1913. In 1922, 57.8 degrees Celsius was recorded in the desert of Libya breaking the Death Valley record. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">However, because these extreme air temperatures happened 100 years ago and conflict with CO2 climate narratives, some researchers speculated that Libya’s temperature must have been incorrectly recorded, so successfully lobbied to remove it from the record books.
There have been ongoing similar attempts to erase Death Valley's record temperature.
Clearly those who control the present narratives, control the past. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Now with satellites measuring skin surfaces, the record hottest skin surface temperature of 70.7 Celsius (about 160 Fahrenheit) was recorded in 2005 in Iran’s Lut Desert, but it's not clear what the air temperature would have been. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The reason different ecosystems experience such different temperatures, even at the same latitude, is because of moisture. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ9Ai7BfZzeRWYWh9_MTrsDI0zTnyBtqveFwi0jU9LBdJX2wn4s9MSmFosipJKMNBE_K5azsblI7u3V_LFhNIY3NSkcCWUnUzoErgYrfqI-whpsXdsE2V1ilAvYn4uYnZtqnsreBeONSPIf4lRexSpdNs0GPCGibF6PQplitTMPS0Xshjqr9STVwOOfA/s1086/moisture%20energy%20effects.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1086" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ9Ai7BfZzeRWYWh9_MTrsDI0zTnyBtqveFwi0jU9LBdJX2wn4s9MSmFosipJKMNBE_K5azsblI7u3V_LFhNIY3NSkcCWUnUzoErgYrfqI-whpsXdsE2V1ilAvYn4uYnZtqnsreBeONSPIf4lRexSpdNs0GPCGibF6PQplitTMPS0Xshjqr9STVwOOfA/w640-h490/moisture%20energy%20effects.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The same amount of energy required to raise one gram of water one degree Celsius, measured here in joules, can also raise dry air by 4 degrees. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The same amount of energy that increases wet soil by one degree raises dry soil by 2 degrees</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Likewise, that same amount of energy would raise asphalt by 2 degrees. In addition, asphalt and other dark surfaces absorb more energy. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Finally, 2200 times more energy is required to evaporate one gram of water without changing the temperature. Without moisture to evaporate, that energy instead causes surface temperatures to rise. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNN38OP-0L9QNIH4yxOH7WQiKZtwAiZOtviB78dDxZgP1pk9I0uxy2kbtoaPUI1ZvSnJ3tIqsGK15fKGJkUnrLcrYETqGzabrkyEe4sg9MxYCOAT5I1YR4cpuOvcH2NgYZ4pg3r9m9p6hIWi9BLn7Cb_2vRXg5hizh2o2VfmP1NduGwV2QY1DxIMYbug/s1920/dry%20lake%20bed.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1920" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNN38OP-0L9QNIH4yxOH7WQiKZtwAiZOtviB78dDxZgP1pk9I0uxy2kbtoaPUI1ZvSnJ3tIqsGK15fKGJkUnrLcrYETqGzabrkyEe4sg9MxYCOAT5I1YR4cpuOvcH2NgYZ4pg3r9m9p6hIWi9BLn7Cb_2vRXg5hizh2o2VfmP1NduGwV2QY1DxIMYbug/w640-h294/dry%20lake%20bed.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Any loss of vegetation, such as converting a forest ecosystem to an urban setting, will reduce evaporation and moisture, and thus generate heat islands. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Wetlands around the world have been increasingly drained and dried since global warming began in the 1800s. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYOWx9551HRAE9NXdpBAQPJuRQ1pZ4mkHhDBgvzVfsYUwzbOZ5I4QVh1-hZkMsaQLj1hEnNW-MfFj4uM-l0F9ZHkV93q5oAvUSHMUSJ9wcpbMDvGbFl_qoAKLSjgop_ye_C8CMcyKAvGRRdumOIVgTnqtB402_3dFP5HNaSemfz4ABnEJRU3ak8a47MA/s655/california%20lost%20wetlands.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="655" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYOWx9551HRAE9NXdpBAQPJuRQ1pZ4mkHhDBgvzVfsYUwzbOZ5I4QVh1-hZkMsaQLj1hEnNW-MfFj4uM-l0F9ZHkV93q5oAvUSHMUSJ9wcpbMDvGbFl_qoAKLSjgop_ye_C8CMcyKAvGRRdumOIVgTnqtB402_3dFP5HNaSemfz4ABnEJRU3ak8a47MA/w640-h434/california%20lost%20wetlands.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In the 1800s California’s central valley was considered a marsh land represented by the yellows and greens. By the 1990s, over 90% of California’s wetlands were drained and dried. Irrigation has only partially offset the resulting warming effects</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The most severe loss of wetlands in the United States are colored red. And the percentage of lost wetlands in each state is listed here. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbxOiL9dPO4-6q4RrC7XQpWrei6HyaFV2e0Sj3k8mo1fy_hDHPKbZXAIR_lQQK4BmimgkK9IBKDQ-bB6XxZW5Nms4ydgQPVTF8q7qSyqiREdR8v4CayZ1P6sGCm2VFThu6vOxfxd9NLNuKGkAotJARDBNSdfIq5xoJ8d9AlAu3S1boqo5ZmRM8Q3xYw/s928/usa%20loost%20wetlands%20color%20map.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="928" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYbxOiL9dPO4-6q4RrC7XQpWrei6HyaFV2e0Sj3k8mo1fy_hDHPKbZXAIR_lQQK4BmimgkK9IBKDQ-bB6XxZW5Nms4ydgQPVTF8q7qSyqiREdR8v4CayZ1P6sGCm2VFThu6vOxfxd9NLNuKGkAotJARDBNSdfIq5xoJ8d9AlAu3S1boqo5ZmRM8Q3xYw/w640-h466/usa%20loost%20wetlands%20color%20map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">California’s 91% loss was the greatest, but similar losses were observed in the Midwest from Iowa to Arkansas to Ohio. Florida only lost 46% of its wetlands but nearly 90% of the everglades. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6XYKF7SnMcHXwenB1I9jAmZIF8wbw9hYs7pr7gTHfG1NigrXq-bDhpsz_tsZ99_JQxhjm61wJJpg8oKaTowAzK0nlxDVJJ-kuv-RgWqrDB8H-vzN0-Vz-KnboxzLspe98vO_VgxNAPMl73ZPGXp8kTat6pd2F0nY9IJgsnpR-E2Vcx4RXnd5mVucGMg/s958/usa%20lost%20wetlands%20percents.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="958" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6XYKF7SnMcHXwenB1I9jAmZIF8wbw9hYs7pr7gTHfG1NigrXq-bDhpsz_tsZ99_JQxhjm61wJJpg8oKaTowAzK0nlxDVJJ-kuv-RgWqrDB8H-vzN0-Vz-KnboxzLspe98vO_VgxNAPMl73ZPGXp8kTat6pd2F0nY9IJgsnpR-E2Vcx4RXnd5mVucGMg/w640-h452/usa%20lost%20wetlands%20percents.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Such losses were not confined to the USA. Globally 87% of surveyed wetlands have been lost since the 1700s. And that loss continues today. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVZgUTI1eL1h0GPwNTU31H8_8SyZq5bInOwCexpo0KkIW1YMKNAOpH09bVWeDetVWRN4D0sU28QgN1Be3cqaw9wJs85pg0i5TeZ0ohlvmSpJ9UIDeVYb0cg6yCljbTrXX1NCKEeUj2VrKDL3tcrTOQj9ZllBeVBmsQgRTrW6P3NQlBgJVg3USO_7A56A/s3510/global%20trend%20of%20lost%20wetlands.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1567" data-original-width="3510" height="286" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVZgUTI1eL1h0GPwNTU31H8_8SyZq5bInOwCexpo0KkIW1YMKNAOpH09bVWeDetVWRN4D0sU28QgN1Be3cqaw9wJs85pg0i5TeZ0ohlvmSpJ9UIDeVYb0cg6yCljbTrXX1NCKEeUj2VrKDL3tcrTOQj9ZllBeVBmsQgRTrW6P3NQlBgJVg3USO_7A56A/w640-h286/global%20trend%20of%20lost%20wetlands.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Based on reconstruction of tree rings, there has been no change in the natural variations in rainfall, so increasing dryness has not been driven by human climate change.
Griffin, in 2014, reconstructed rainfall patterns for the past 700 years from blue oak tree rings. The blue star and dashed line represent California’s extreme 2014 drought. The reconstruction revealed similar droughts happened about 3 times every century and some have been far worse than 2014, even during the colder Little Ice Age. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-WhA0qTbi6_siHA3oVCp4abDB37MsmTIy8u17uW9hMbFu3yeF-hzdSPRLgo13KfuaG4rsk6KQcn3uzvDOzzoJKbr4HNsP4E7u_5YHj7CFQFbZPHIfRYxNIM-u5lYpDNzj-uldrYSq1TPIQZzS9kl-GrjwtykggffSJsEhBgktR7sQRzeg4Wq1Uq5I5w/s1920/blue%20oak%20drought%20reeconstruct.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="658" data-original-width="1920" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-WhA0qTbi6_siHA3oVCp4abDB37MsmTIy8u17uW9hMbFu3yeF-hzdSPRLgo13KfuaG4rsk6KQcn3uzvDOzzoJKbr4HNsP4E7u_5YHj7CFQFbZPHIfRYxNIM-u5lYpDNzj-uldrYSq1TPIQZzS9kl-GrjwtykggffSJsEhBgktR7sQRzeg4Wq1Uq5I5w/w640-h220/blue%20oak%20drought%20reeconstruct.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In addition to lost wetlands, degraded landscapes have reduced natural cooling that happens via transpiration.
Over 60 to 80% of the globe's dry lands have been degraded by deforestation and overgrazing. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYcuTF2Khq_3Q98xHvqgq-9YxpJItZ6kEAjndPitjDO80q7ImEw05FjOS-zRyBv9pU7TsBVmLf10uvMvGsUlvKJbWapF1iwdAbr9TpU0ZkxfDGqF6Chz6obOXO28DSNLnXFtuq1TGG1CC06o4ahF68tkfuhO62oF3lak_zufmXBalq0a4O0xNwm6IATw/s1360/deforestation%20overgrazing%20perce%20t%20cotinent.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="842" data-original-width="1360" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYcuTF2Khq_3Q98xHvqgq-9YxpJItZ6kEAjndPitjDO80q7ImEw05FjOS-zRyBv9pU7TsBVmLf10uvMvGsUlvKJbWapF1iwdAbr9TpU0ZkxfDGqF6Chz6obOXO28DSNLnXFtuq1TGG1CC06o4ahF68tkfuhO62oF3lak_zufmXBalq0a4O0xNwm6IATw/w640-h396/deforestation%20overgrazing%20perce%20t%20cotinent.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As human populations expanded by 7-fold since 1800, the demand for wood for heating and buildings grew, causing the area of deforestation to double. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In 2021, researchers from the US Forest Service compared the effects of the 2021 heat wave on undisturbed forests versus deforested and degraded forests. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In west Oregon undisturbed forests were 5.5 degrees Celsius (or 10 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler. Likewise in Washington state, the degraded forest plantations were 4.5 degrees warmer.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr7Fdq9wQ70GSYrsTU80IFYdlKoG94_q8eyPGl8SBqiegSUSKOPvMO4SES3oNJNouNxe3mVybCqqcMXUkkokbInjI0fhRf-KkAtdFfJI6vPnOJ6PS-81frcIoEVcm8CfCH51STRbnOVsKoQCWVTsMeIYFr8CWAPEgGh1HSVA3p1Oz6ekbxqm5dhbTO5Q/s1174/fragmented%20forest%20usfs.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="728" data-original-width="1174" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr7Fdq9wQ70GSYrsTU80IFYdlKoG94_q8eyPGl8SBqiegSUSKOPvMO4SES3oNJNouNxe3mVybCqqcMXUkkokbInjI0fhRf-KkAtdFfJI6vPnOJ6PS-81frcIoEVcm8CfCH51STRbnOVsKoQCWVTsMeIYFr8CWAPEgGh1HSVA3p1Oz6ekbxqm5dhbTO5Q/w640-h396/fragmented%20forest%20usfs.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Thus, researchers concluded, "the loss and degradation of primary forests was driving regional climate change and amplifying the severity of heat waves and droughts. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This graphic illustrates the regions where deforestation and forest fragmentation have taken the greatest toll. (rust colored). Between 2002 and 2020 as populations grew, China lost over 6% of its forests</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Southeast Asia, largely in Malaysia and Indonesia, have lost huge swaths of forest because misguided politics are subsidizing biofuels and promoting deforestation to plant palm oil. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUhZdKbxQjw_r_kg3g978jGUPqIDf-32otJTPhUGQvPuhvDTnttlq-RWkthzo6tsLCIOGInpQ1fbtMII9a88xMTWhTDF4ZaH6gkYZ59fHKoCb7YT5pedx2osrwtHxM7sqGmiIaugJRG7Ixz2Pw9plYuKpf5DbAWfka6pTj6E5qusI_bU5U8-QOqGr-Lg/s2675/foreest%20fragmentation%20map.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1708" data-original-width="2675" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUhZdKbxQjw_r_kg3g978jGUPqIDf-32otJTPhUGQvPuhvDTnttlq-RWkthzo6tsLCIOGInpQ1fbtMII9a88xMTWhTDF4ZaH6gkYZ59fHKoCb7YT5pedx2osrwtHxM7sqGmiIaugJRG7Ixz2Pw9plYuKpf5DbAWfka6pTj6E5qusI_bU5U8-QOqGr-Lg/w640-h408/foreest%20fragmentation%20map.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast, Scandinavia exhibits no fragmentation and a growing forest, and it has not experienced global warming</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">By reconstructing temperatures using Scandinavian tree rings, Esper 2012 concluded temperatures have been declining for the past 2000 years. The 3 warmest 30-year periods happened during the Roman Warm Period 2000 years ago, and the Medieval Warm Period 1000 years ago. Both were warmer than the recent 30-year warm period between 1920 and 1940. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8vY9gZZDre6WxrXruUG9EQz5rNBuaJvdYvpm3dufkpWsgOwst6xrgPkqSp99Art9GZ3crbpk3Si44S-CGUFEKMhzAF92w93dhnuJJMhrTCVYie6hO43tyL5kOWyw-gby5elDFVSvKWPMoUrbKtbEFmCe6_IV0tPsQDWXqkImPpf-BaBlxmvYItzzGtg/s1514/esper%20scandinavian%202000%20years.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="1514" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8vY9gZZDre6WxrXruUG9EQz5rNBuaJvdYvpm3dufkpWsgOwst6xrgPkqSp99Art9GZ3crbpk3Si44S-CGUFEKMhzAF92w93dhnuJJMhrTCVYie6hO43tyL5kOWyw-gby5elDFVSvKWPMoUrbKtbEFmCe6_IV0tPsQDWXqkImPpf-BaBlxmvYItzzGtg/w640-h322/esper%20scandinavian%202000%20years.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Overgrazing has likewise warmed the land's surface skin temperatures. A 1994 study found overgrazed grasslands were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius warmer than well managed grasslands.
and overgrazed north American grasslands were warming 63% faster than well managed grasslands. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRywUnqc8PsRPq6EnnaPVab4oMALI9TMBYyHby5F9TDpKOA0H8rC2RIv0BqxiptVu4nrCxdGqzA9egUynfoPPwy2-BrDR9COC2KDbAP6195_qb4XKrepPK9qKNA3yitpQ-5fbPA0_MojZdQlXqWgfbCR4No8uabWXiQTUxX31dvTsWNfkstNnC_KM7tQ/s2525/overgraze%20comparison.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1572" data-original-width="2525" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRywUnqc8PsRPq6EnnaPVab4oMALI9TMBYyHby5F9TDpKOA0H8rC2RIv0BqxiptVu4nrCxdGqzA9egUynfoPPwy2-BrDR9COC2KDbAP6195_qb4XKrepPK9qKNA3yitpQ-5fbPA0_MojZdQlXqWgfbCR4No8uabWXiQTUxX31dvTsWNfkstNnC_KM7tQ/w640-h398/overgraze%20comparison.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The loss of grasslands in the 1930s contributed to the deadly Dust Bowl.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast to the false narrative that global warming is causing more fires, more fires are, however, changing the landscapes, reducing transpiration, and warming the land. Southern California’s Malibu Canyon suffers 2 fires each decade as result of human ignitions.That has resulted in the loss of shrub lands, converting them into invasive grasslands that are both more easily ignited and increase skin surface warming</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs5TAIyRz0D_l1Tgw_oZfNjbFP4IuJLBDj4YJsgZcN6m3JH-bm_9VuhcQpNitLaKaKWmZbJ2TC055uTXYsQl1kuBRqqgAsTmeS9m7vDh2i5qTODfkxIH8ASWoVhzb4__HCaAfjxce3RrWTbbfCsWJ99DnL0CO7XShrTY0buymtPX2Cm7IBF2CiHQkqbg/s2493/malibu%20canyon%20conversion.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1691" data-original-width="2493" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs5TAIyRz0D_l1Tgw_oZfNjbFP4IuJLBDj4YJsgZcN6m3JH-bm_9VuhcQpNitLaKaKWmZbJ2TC055uTXYsQl1kuBRqqgAsTmeS9m7vDh2i5qTODfkxIH8ASWoVhzb4__HCaAfjxce3RrWTbbfCsWJ99DnL0CO7XShrTY0buymtPX2Cm7IBF2CiHQkqbg/w640-h434/malibu%20canyon%20conversion.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">While studies show humans start over 84% of all wildfires, along California’s central and southern coasts, the growing human population has started 100% of the fires</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjZK2QRpTdwdNh2cREKWEsJfWIooohhFLxIAAkt1kMQmNdZfTYUJhNXKTazNXkatAuH9h3i-1GS6mWWgvDIegH2dA0YG7EMaDYRftnMKij7ZElww2bqrU18-CANN1l2hCjfqSfdY51D5F-9e5ViRgQylimRCyd9y5CNQzxTT_L-DP3jOiBIxZNC_lluw/s1383/WIldfire%20ignitions%20BAlch%202017.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1089" data-original-width="1383" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjZK2QRpTdwdNh2cREKWEsJfWIooohhFLxIAAkt1kMQmNdZfTYUJhNXKTazNXkatAuH9h3i-1GS6mWWgvDIegH2dA0YG7EMaDYRftnMKij7ZElww2bqrU18-CANN1l2hCjfqSfdY51D5F-9e5ViRgQylimRCyd9y5CNQzxTT_L-DP3jOiBIxZNC_lluw/w640-h504/WIldfire%20ignitions%20BAlch%202017.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To what degree these landscape changes bias the global average temperature upwards, depends on the proximity to any landscape changes, of the weather stations that contribute to that average, </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As of 2011, the World Meteorological Organization oversees 11,119 weather stations, and to easily operate them these stations are associated with human habitat, not wilderness.
The United States has the densest coverage and the most stations operating for 75 years or more (represented by red dots), the minimum time span needed to assess natural vs human climate changes. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2iVFUGH1r8gKoZv2dX0HXSFnd525g6NuHCYnGGE8MkDyh5qSIaJTyanJfWnTj1DGFvYePhNm-0cnM07_cgGo-3M3jGad3qzfSc-XblzAwo9iQiImw6HXawFg73KT4_Z12U2BhkrhcFbpWjW8qmLecB0pd3m9xv2ajmEL4qEYqGYKg3TPawiCsNrrKVA/s3350/weather%20stations%20maps.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1787" data-original-width="3350" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2iVFUGH1r8gKoZv2dX0HXSFnd525g6NuHCYnGGE8MkDyh5qSIaJTyanJfWnTj1DGFvYePhNm-0cnM07_cgGo-3M3jGad3qzfSc-XblzAwo9iQiImw6HXawFg73KT4_Z12U2BhkrhcFbpWjW8qmLecB0pd3m9xv2ajmEL4qEYqGYKg3TPawiCsNrrKVA/w640-h342/weather%20stations%20maps.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">For the rest of the globe, that coverage averages out to just one station for each area the size of the state of Connecticut. And that one weather station is assumed to represent all temperatures in the surrounding 5,000 square miles. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Urban areas represent less than 1% of the entire land surface of earth.
However, 27% of the weather stations used to calculate climate change are in urban areas. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Urban heat islands are typically 2 to 3 degrees Celsius, or 5 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit, warmer than surrounding, well-vegetated suburban and rural regions. Urban heat islands are typically created by reducing vegetation and removing rainfall into storm drains while paving over moist soils and wetlands with asphalt and concrete. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLfgtjQKKUcb3LipfrtF2nFLeB925MgXZ9i7hAPP2DKOwW5f7B1yAVWAuIeyOIm6MogA9fHcVFj9hgDnn1YqInPQhdTuLRonL_rJmnfDK7UfUJrMiBjJPCcRrqtialqKX_YDj1JeKr_0zKuAvLL3Jx4VK9dQy6LRXrDOyIIwiWJ3d9s2jAeHNK2ggUSg/s728/Urban%20heat%20island%207.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="424" data-original-width="728" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLfgtjQKKUcb3LipfrtF2nFLeB925MgXZ9i7hAPP2DKOwW5f7B1yAVWAuIeyOIm6MogA9fHcVFj9hgDnn1YqInPQhdTuLRonL_rJmnfDK7UfUJrMiBjJPCcRrqtialqKX_YDj1JeKr_0zKuAvLL3Jx4VK9dQy6LRXrDOyIIwiWJ3d9s2jAeHNK2ggUSg/w640-h372/Urban%20heat%20island%207.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Oddly, some studies, simply based on population size, argue rural and urban areas are equally warming and so blame rising temperatures on CO2. But those studies ignore the fact that even with smaller populations, rural areas are warming due to lost wetlands, deforestation, and overgrazing. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To robustly evaluate the warming effects of CO2, new studies must be done that account for the effects of those landscape changes, </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYuN2uyoVXPCDiCn6Tu_fDPOoMKknf2b1x_E4l7i0q31MjxFKHbdk3hb9-TiOsD73GiQJW9DHZ6BaxOiLZUqImhyfy9pd4eZJY0-AHBjXr5vuHCPRn7rNfN6QVLc3nriVFKcGb9UCHUdOj8nEESru2YuZs4mlx5Chh8RoXmTqne2V_9O9jh5gLlSIoCA/s940/atlanta%20vegetation.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="940" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYuN2uyoVXPCDiCn6Tu_fDPOoMKknf2b1x_E4l7i0q31MjxFKHbdk3hb9-TiOsD73GiQJW9DHZ6BaxOiLZUqImhyfy9pd4eZJY0-AHBjXr5vuHCPRn7rNfN6QVLc3nriVFKcGb9UCHUdOj8nEESru2YuZs4mlx5Chh8RoXmTqne2V_9O9jh5gLlSIoCA/w640-h362/atlanta%20vegetation.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNKxaC6YPGKysKJ9sLTbJ7fzIaeuSbDO73NFK7aXwtZ4xFbqqOlpvAaB6MvsoTo7lUGMPWNV_bT7Mr6KRl7n5hwpXCNJ3iMyk3Yk94wkd9gFq4YqhNd8G5ab4jv-X9H1WLJv63Eje5tpcKV7Cdm-fHHaVAx8KbuVS1yDxaHNUt6eC8VT-XF3woRyiLGg/s884/atlanta%20infrared.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="542" data-original-width="884" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNKxaC6YPGKysKJ9sLTbJ7fzIaeuSbDO73NFK7aXwtZ4xFbqqOlpvAaB6MvsoTo7lUGMPWNV_bT7Mr6KRl7n5hwpXCNJ3iMyk3Yk94wkd9gFq4YqhNd8G5ab4jv-X9H1WLJv63Eje5tpcKV7Cdm-fHHaVAx8KbuVS1yDxaHNUt6eC8VT-XF3woRyiLGg/w640-h392/atlanta%20infrared.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">These NASA photographs show the effect of urban centers versus more vegetated suburbs seen in green. The infrared photo shows the well vegetated suburbs are 10 degrees Celsius or 18 degrees Fahrenheit cooler</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Again, it is no coincidence that it is typically urban dwellers suffering from urban heat islands who mistakenly support political parties that push a global warming climate crisis. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In addition to adding more vegetation, one solution to reduce urban heat islands, requires converting dark rooftops to white roof tops</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg96nvXgl7HcT8imXAU9x_flJ9OCVN_25kf-NrDpvoztU5ntZe29uqre5wRwcNUmFGI6q37nvzhl6Ay14QBwr0Z97FHCxdJa9UqiajDBiVd8DdMESTwp3Qnj76wnJ7jJEgLYfgGIgXdtIFw2BJqnAzwcl4eO0iqb4kS3C8Or9bq0IRmF3-lctEMXJqw9Q/s1256/roof%20top%20comparison.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="1256" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg96nvXgl7HcT8imXAU9x_flJ9OCVN_25kf-NrDpvoztU5ntZe29uqre5wRwcNUmFGI6q37nvzhl6Ay14QBwr0Z97FHCxdJa9UqiajDBiVd8DdMESTwp3Qnj76wnJ7jJEgLYfgGIgXdtIFw2BJqnAzwcl4eO0iqb4kS3C8Or9bq0IRmF3-lctEMXJqw9Q/w640-h364/roof%20top%20comparison.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Dark roofs absorb 16 times more heat than white surfaces. And hotter roofs generate hotter buildings</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Dark roofs heat the atmosphere 4 times more than white surfaces
Additionally hotter buildings emit more heat through the night increasing the nighttime minimum temperatures. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In 1988, Thomas Karl, who later became director of the National Climatic Data Center, published research showing that as an urban center's population increased, so did the early morning minimum temperatures, but not maximum temperatures</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjSYq_00j7p4hI5YIK2iyIQ0upF1HCjJLr-FfG_sWFqPmgR-E3PulSqpXU9p3GE533Ar3Pl31YkhUG6ppka4T76YenyFEUOwTGkMtximDeApCYqFdXUTHBtPq-RcVHRPqFg1AcD72Rqnc2kMRK5EDjfpSh2K9ufjwiRQYm86xOrt1eM84CB_dDJWpwNg/s1056/karly%20urban%20minimums.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="920" data-original-width="1056" height="558" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjSYq_00j7p4hI5YIK2iyIQ0upF1HCjJLr-FfG_sWFqPmgR-E3PulSqpXU9p3GE533Ar3Pl31YkhUG6ppka4T76YenyFEUOwTGkMtximDeApCYqFdXUTHBtPq-RcVHRPqFg1AcD72Rqnc2kMRK5EDjfpSh2K9ufjwiRQYm86xOrt1eM84CB_dDJWpwNg/w640-h558/karly%20urban%20minimums.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In a town of 10,000 people, the minimum temperature increased twice as much as a small-town of 2000 people. In a city of one million people, the minimum temperature increased 15 times more than the small town. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And although maximum temperatures decreased, the city's average temperature still increased 15 times more than the small town. As cities grow the altered landscape, added buildings, and streets of asphalt will store more daytime heat, which is then slowly released at night, and that best explains the asymmetric temperature trends. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Trying to evaluate how temperatures were affecting Sierra Nevada wildlife, I examined the temperature data from the nearest us historical climate network station in Tahoe City.
Unexpectedly, but like Karl’s study, I found the maximum temperatures were highest in the 1930s and have been cooling since
But minimum temperatures had been rising. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ1o9FD-ETtDyNQLjtrJ7U4CVzUmaABIvZRiLgo6Bjhp85zY1aqQYfbtdEeoPHLc3CkrZzGirwxXlAgjuN1C_P8C4xKnaN9goSHYZEu4OMLHLUY3NoE-O9f-QTz3yY08Qy9uNnCxbKQYiKXT5sjxr7nC2WIvX8xhtFQzg4kIALvzIGSPf6l0VVHJoGMQ/s922/tahoe%20city%20min%20max.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="922" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ1o9FD-ETtDyNQLjtrJ7U4CVzUmaABIvZRiLgo6Bjhp85zY1aqQYfbtdEeoPHLc3CkrZzGirwxXlAgjuN1C_P8C4xKnaN9goSHYZEu4OMLHLUY3NoE-O9f-QTz3yY08Qy9uNnCxbKQYiKXT5sjxr7nC2WIvX8xhtFQzg4kIALvzIGSPf6l0VVHJoGMQ/w640-h388/tahoe%20city%20min%20max.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Sierra Nevada was not getting hotter. Surfaces were just cooling less by early morning</span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, the commonly paraded temperature trends only present the average of the maximum and minimum and that misleading statistic hides the grossly different temperature dynamics. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioGGTBnyVaEIcSLT1hcHM1S4Ino-IMmb0AKdhL1zUayXdsUHvhfBXVxS3sdqQc349DJk3dySVLR9O2vB2Nc0dkCoIHem4mhZDEp5JsV-LQkzqYWkIk3ox4vFzIznS01hbQQfpz-U9LHqFNNCQ6wTIHjU_R2wYoX4X56j2V62EkddRXG_MyzqmzL038eA/s920/tahoe%20city%20average.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="920" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioGGTBnyVaEIcSLT1hcHM1S4Ino-IMmb0AKdhL1zUayXdsUHvhfBXVxS3sdqQc349DJk3dySVLR9O2vB2Nc0dkCoIHem4mhZDEp5JsV-LQkzqYWkIk3ox4vFzIznS01hbQQfpz-U9LHqFNNCQ6wTIHjU_R2wYoX4X56j2V62EkddRXG_MyzqmzL038eA/w640-h390/tahoe%20city%20average.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Minimum temperatures are more sensitive than maximums to surface changes due to differences in daytime and nighttime convection. Solar heating during the day generates robust convection that carries heat away from the surface and upwards, to mix with cooler air above. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the night, convection is greatly reduced so that air warmed at the surface is not diluted by mixing with cooler air above. Inversion layers often form that can trap heat, even preventing smoke from rising. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2wAu-na3p0xNN-F0tFqqgHU_sCtN4LTnXaQevF4QmXyQ22kutujorktu52zTwsVxHYS-CBvSJ1a6oU97PFkCDxuuJN5DqAbn8F8BH4d2_rC2f0eeIJzLNSUMgbaYiEQigUx0RqZCeYjihQCioXcX5vAHehJaWQI3F_3LUuJlOKzlQioSs5__G-Nchug/s2603/day%20night%20convection.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1888" data-original-width="2603" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2wAu-na3p0xNN-F0tFqqgHU_sCtN4LTnXaQevF4QmXyQ22kutujorktu52zTwsVxHYS-CBvSJ1a6oU97PFkCDxuuJN5DqAbn8F8BH4d2_rC2f0eeIJzLNSUMgbaYiEQigUx0RqZCeYjihQCioXcX5vAHehJaWQI3F_3LUuJlOKzlQioSs5__G-Nchug/w640-h464/day%20night%20convection.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In 2013 I published this graph in my book of temperatures in Death Valley, from data supplied by the us historical climate network. The climate trends were very similar to that observed in the Tahoe City data and elsewhere in California, with the maximum temperatures peaking in the 1930s. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Death Valley's weather station shows it was sited in a more natural landscape in 1913 when its record maximum temperature was recorded, even though minimum temperatures were much lower. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCIeO5ftTbItlPgNHTuwFihlefoaATJxnY2_Ot9hnqBluhSnctReruGdwlKRGN-vrhXpq36BzIUgDse27xWQuOSlfWtwcg-mrYChr_OTtAzfD-FSKJM_eTKhe9t3mhMZnse6PI8COxVtEi47-KoiC0LRHnEaaEgJ5p8_9PN1huwur7dl7wIr9Dd1I_Sw/s3918/death%20valley%20max%20min%20and%20site.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1058" data-original-width="3918" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCIeO5ftTbItlPgNHTuwFihlefoaATJxnY2_Ot9hnqBluhSnctReruGdwlKRGN-vrhXpq36BzIUgDse27xWQuOSlfWtwcg-mrYChr_OTtAzfD-FSKJM_eTKhe9t3mhMZnse6PI8COxVtEi47-KoiC0LRHnEaaEgJ5p8_9PN1huwur7dl7wIr9Dd1I_Sw/w640-h172/death%20valley%20max%20min%20and%20site.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><p style="text-align: justify;">As meteorologist Anthony Watts and his Surface Station surveys have revealed, even Death Valley has been affected by landscape changes. As Death Valley became a National Park and popular tourist spot, a visitor's center and several RV parks were added around the weather station. The observed rise in minimum temperature is again consistent with those land surface changes.</p></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz2L77lanxbHkzrXlu-cRMYu6OF4D4O2D30L3QDnJhFB7EWRM0GFUNN62-LgMiSz1HdiwlIjxiimcKxkx4ELy1vBb-DnSQyx5FfYVD0hsJ3zfYoOmnrnJ9X2hELwQKruYsNLEcE8KCAjY34xdJTMRkOGV4WJyFfympoRIdcn2ifHCz4RsaL5yaeenQ3Q/s4280/deaeth%20valley%20landscape%20change.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="921" data-original-width="4280" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz2L77lanxbHkzrXlu-cRMYu6OF4D4O2D30L3QDnJhFB7EWRM0GFUNN62-LgMiSz1HdiwlIjxiimcKxkx4ELy1vBb-DnSQyx5FfYVD0hsJ3zfYoOmnrnJ9X2hELwQKruYsNLEcE8KCAjY34xdJTMRkOGV4WJyFfympoRIdcn2ifHCz4RsaL5yaeenQ3Q/w640-h138/deaeth%20valley%20landscape%20change.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Death Valley is also a symbol of how fragile our temperature data has become as politics can outweigh science. The data I published had been previously adjusted for any known errors. </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It was consistent with California’s regional climate trends observed in Tahoe city and Yosemite national park as well as other stations around the country. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkZQuJkCSdBjYEQ_0DDoSOP9V1KkUQpKbwOHQZKy0bangQDwnl9vpjG1g8D3WUxwMuEVOCxXnFW1mXongl05LNWhu-Obdpx63ZlRM-7JBKcdpFZkREFVJnD6BUhgpGxG5_rIkF7FvvR5-WnQrEamB-2kF36r5XgJSapmwgofJeWFstX6QA4kWxJu7BFQ/s4120/death%20valley%20yosemite%20comapare.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1081" data-original-width="4120" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkZQuJkCSdBjYEQ_0DDoSOP9V1KkUQpKbwOHQZKy0bangQDwnl9vpjG1g8D3WUxwMuEVOCxXnFW1mXongl05LNWhu-Obdpx63ZlRM-7JBKcdpFZkREFVJnD6BUhgpGxG5_rIkF7FvvR5-WnQrEamB-2kF36r5XgJSapmwgofJeWFstX6QA4kWxJu7BFQ/w640-h168/death%20valley%20yosemite%20comapare.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Peak maximum temperatures were consistent with the EPA’s heat wave index that also peaked in the 1930s. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6TRhN6PqOVcpjcPMlGwYqhItaueKPozlXPoSoWXCarvEQOeATeUmcAVvnBfjn51T03KTz-U84wNAY_bdYqAx7LwZmwb9tIwWvASVah02fqAC-cd0k1ku5YkQVwtkS1NRjpqPxd6XCXBX2fPN69yAe9xx6W8cBSquO8JxEgPCL8IHcMrtSwNUZWOTcHQ/s928/heat%20waves%20EPA%202021.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="928" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6TRhN6PqOVcpjcPMlGwYqhItaueKPozlXPoSoWXCarvEQOeATeUmcAVvnBfjn51T03KTz-U84wNAY_bdYqAx7LwZmwb9tIwWvASVah02fqAC-cd0k1ku5YkQVwtkS1NRjpqPxd6XCXBX2fPN69yAe9xx6W8cBSquO8JxEgPCL8IHcMrtSwNUZWOTcHQ/w640-h388/heat%20waves%20EPA%202021.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But in 2014, I got an email accusing me of misrepresenting the Death Valley data.
When I checked, I found Death Valley’s data had been adjusted once again, and this time the 1930s warm peak was squashed </span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And Death Valley's temperature trend was now structured to align with the current CO2 global warming narratives. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBYIyHBPqyEEXjUSwbkryvnFjXQj6V84lVj-2nC-p9nt8pTxkb8UsPOTz5mVlg6pSOSlUXEyFOdwfYd1SJ8H-sROA30XMeuVHtOOCGosv91ELa-xK9-nCus9r-lc6BjLl_GsxSsCGKwD3WsqT4JkNDJCvJV8VNZ6tgFZJyD2X_I16LNlQJ2kg5yhpEQg/s2200/death%20valley%20adjusted%20trend.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1054" data-original-width="2200" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBYIyHBPqyEEXjUSwbkryvnFjXQj6V84lVj-2nC-p9nt8pTxkb8UsPOTz5mVlg6pSOSlUXEyFOdwfYd1SJ8H-sROA30XMeuVHtOOCGosv91ELa-xK9-nCus9r-lc6BjLl_GsxSsCGKwD3WsqT4JkNDJCvJV8VNZ6tgFZJyD2X_I16LNlQJ2kg5yhpEQg/w640-h306/death%20valley%20adjusted%20trend.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div></span><p></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Clearly those who control the present, control the past. </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Up next: part 5 of the big 5 natural causes of climate change: clouds
.
Until then.... Embrace renowned scientist Thomas Huxley’s advice.... </span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Skepticism is our highest of duties and blind faith the one unpardonable sin!</span></p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-33107727739414694522022-05-12T10:29:00.033-07:002022-05-14T06:34:15.925-07:00The Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change pt 3 How La Nina Warms the World <p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: center;">Below is transcript to video:</div></span><div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXg5UCRPJJ4&t=38s" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change pt 3 </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">How La Nina Warms the World </span></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">view at </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXg5UCRPJJ4&t=38s</span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh066VpoV4BGCaFrsXC7I5HBk39UWkQu9Rqa48AAlPD8VtetH83ieaJ4IGVPkrkcG_Er9f5by1utGNkjr343A6hqSkusBO2q0F9TvCyh4DKrWnyqsGXJJTiLofWb0uECmzaXutReCXZsBGuYJwGEW2Vjg3bOSINBqbUAhVtbqCs4qU77YeUE2DUsvmmMA/s3208/energy%20flux%20eastern%20pacific.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1769" data-original-width="3208" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh066VpoV4BGCaFrsXC7I5HBk39UWkQu9Rqa48AAlPD8VtetH83ieaJ4IGVPkrkcG_Er9f5by1utGNkjr343A6hqSkusBO2q0F9TvCyh4DKrWnyqsGXJJTiLofWb0uECmzaXutReCXZsBGuYJwGEW2Vjg3bOSINBqbUAhVtbqCs4qU77YeUE2DUsvmmMA/w640-h352/energy%20flux%20eastern%20pacific.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Today in part 3 of the big 5 natural causes of climate change, I want to demonstrate how more frequent La Ninas have warmed the world</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">La Ninas promote clear skies over the eastern pacific increasing solar heating.
As a result, the eastern Pacific absorbs over 100 watts per meter squared more solar energy than it releases back to space. A similar but smaller energy imbalance occurs in the eastern Atlantic during Atlantic Ninas</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The blue regions release more energy back to space than their surfaces absorbed. That excess energy was initially absorbed and transported from the tropics.
Climate scientists agree any imbalance between the earth's absorption and release of energy can cause climate change. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">However, the question is how much of that imbalance is caused by ocean dynamics vs increasing CO2 concentrations</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In all peer-reviewed research the world's energy budget is measured in terms of watts, the flow energy per second. For example, a burning candle emits 80 watts. But step just one meter away from that candle and you will not feel its heat. So, to express the effects of heat energy, heat is measured in the amount of watts reaching a square meter of surface area, or watts per meter squared. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPZmqHa9KMw2SygPbMQjnErQunxKk5WZoW-wMOjgTEoCQ-wT17zuNtpX1mK2Eq177rB1qAurOJn2pSxXicbdbMBEuDsJrDgNgbiM0-pRbfmP1aG3a0CANHcOAP4YWCa47TfpXF_ipNnLIIZ4Vt6-IeiF3PrDD6OoF1It41w0FPMcrwTDYV4zu4PlK-Xg/s895/candle.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="895" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPZmqHa9KMw2SygPbMQjnErQunxKk5WZoW-wMOjgTEoCQ-wT17zuNtpX1mK2Eq177rB1qAurOJn2pSxXicbdbMBEuDsJrDgNgbiM0-pRbfmP1aG3a0CANHcOAP4YWCa47TfpXF_ipNnLIIZ4Vt6-IeiF3PrDD6OoF1It41w0FPMcrwTDYV4zu4PlK-Xg/w200-h189/candle.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">On average, the earth's atmosphere and surfaces absorb 240 watts per meter squared of solar energy. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Claims of a climate crisis, are based on the belief that CO2 is causing the earth to r<b>etain just one more watt of solar energy than it releases</b> back to space</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9kiZQfBprbIYUuFRetGvvMyuHdHko5ADj5DFtQ48QbPRA_M4j1fs8GWCZXy47u3qDIuyzGNbwacuR4orDKsLMftwPmWWFJslL-KBgd2QzTf5zbG3pJqId9mZ_Pn1USLuaIYjjSaU2CTKI6MmuUGFm5azsvPXHE7-dwkOnZauscdUtLonUj6Ts8z7How/s239/earth.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="232" data-original-width="239" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9kiZQfBprbIYUuFRetGvvMyuHdHko5ADj5DFtQ48QbPRA_M4j1fs8GWCZXy47u3qDIuyzGNbwacuR4orDKsLMftwPmWWFJslL-KBgd2QzTf5zbG3pJqId9mZ_Pn1USLuaIYjjSaU2CTKI6MmuUGFm5azsvPXHE7-dwkOnZauscdUtLonUj6Ts8z7How/w400-h388/earth.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But natural ocean dynamics also cause the earth to retain more absorbed solar energy than it releases back to space.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The greatest amount of heat absorption happens when the Pacific is in its neutral condition or a La Nina-like state which is simply a more extreme neutral state. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4yYIXngvS7rPnmMq_nJ0v1Tq8AJpCudWg5eCfgpQ0R1wcvbDXByHIBhuBAzdCSjzcN6M69Jq6eCTGwQ0io2kIwHPj4yvUtwjs8nFvetkcVO_4z8qBjK250gUKUx5Nzv6djqr0uunxHWiHJDEovlRHCH2u21mqlJ4V7KakLfJ3cS2e5nAsG4WM1f23cw/s3263/la%20nina%20%20deep%20thermocline.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1714" data-original-width="3263" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4yYIXngvS7rPnmMq_nJ0v1Tq8AJpCudWg5eCfgpQ0R1wcvbDXByHIBhuBAzdCSjzcN6M69Jq6eCTGwQ0io2kIwHPj4yvUtwjs8nFvetkcVO_4z8qBjK250gUKUx5Nzv6djqr0uunxHWiHJDEovlRHCH2u21mqlJ4V7KakLfJ3cS2e5nAsG4WM1f23cw/w640-h336/la%20nina%20%20deep%20thermocline.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The trade winds blow warm waters across the Pacific and concentrate them in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean creating the warmest body of water on earth, the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">That removal of water from the eastern Pacific allows cool sub-surface waters to upwell there. The cooler temperatures generate fewer clouds which increases the absorption of solar energy by 15 watts per meter squared</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Furthermore, the resulting east to west temperature difference amplifies the trade winds causing positive feedback that favors maintaining La Nina like conditions. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Strong trade winds cause more heated water to be stored deeper in the western Pacific where the heat is inhibited from ventilating back to space. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Climate scientists are fully aware that this dynamic increases ocean warming, but only bring it to the public's attention when they blame the ocean for creating a <b>hiatus</b> in the rise of global average temperatures that contradicts simplistically based predictions of warming driven by rising CO2. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbE90jOHG-awpQRpYmkvIrqQsWPAh_ClSQ3emz66UEaBoz-GZC5kh59OAtPBYSHlsr7NzzVHL9uJpVStnK3uBBrrhSgZGyK2tCpPtPj3W9OLcLAO6ApxASEHlFsY0d7-tu4aYv49o4PUNjCJx4O8SAo2phXUb6f4mRCNSt0mRlGmJiCuqsJVCx6h-7Q/s2598/hansen%202005%20paper%20model.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1778" data-original-width="2598" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdbE90jOHG-awpQRpYmkvIrqQsWPAh_ClSQ3emz66UEaBoz-GZC5kh59OAtPBYSHlsr7NzzVHL9uJpVStnK3uBBrrhSgZGyK2tCpPtPj3W9OLcLAO6ApxASEHlFsY0d7-tu4aYv49o4PUNjCJx4O8SAo2phXUb6f4mRCNSt0mRlGmJiCuqsJVCx6h-7Q/w640-h438/hansen%202005%20paper%20model.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">James Hansen is considered the godfather of the climate crisis. Initially he studied the climate on Venus, which is lifeless and devoid of water.
So naturally his analyses and models of climate change are typically focused on greenhouse gases that affected Venus. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To his credit, Hansen admits this bias in his 2005 paper stating "our climate model is driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols"</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But Hansen also realized that regards the earth's climate, “one may find other combinations that yield warming comparable to that of the past century” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">An increasing understanding of the effects of El Ninos and La Ninas is providing such an alternative combination of effects and a comparable alternative explanation for the warming that Hansen and his acolytes blame on CO2. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Hansen didn’t carefully examine those ENSO effects because as he stated his "coarse-resolution ocean models had been unable to simulate climate variations associated with El Nino–Southern Oscillation processes” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Now the improving understanding of El Nino & La Nina effects will likely cause the CO2 driven climate crisis claims to fall like a house of cards</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBG0IDQ3j-s6mHvOWBP0b01Z8e49ICH4RARLf-wMsDqVuyGuXqIBqxXc2rARWzO-1TKir-kx-UNV_dHfxspirx_3cqQbBblpJ4h8ulUMZvKme7_4KS49Q7Ixsn13ODp6MkABRL6uButCoDyApgeWyroftZRmBx0kZeaVUl0onHC0VwRemVwPmcL92-kA/s368/house%20of%20cards.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="368" data-original-width="281" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBG0IDQ3j-s6mHvOWBP0b01Z8e49ICH4RARLf-wMsDqVuyGuXqIBqxXc2rARWzO-1TKir-kx-UNV_dHfxspirx_3cqQbBblpJ4h8ulUMZvKme7_4KS49Q7Ixsn13ODp6MkABRL6uButCoDyApgeWyroftZRmBx0kZeaVUl0onHC0VwRemVwPmcL92-kA/w305-h400/house%20of%20cards.jpg" width="305" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Climate scientists have calculated the earth's energy budget, but it is <b>plagued with large uncertainties</b>. However, when trying to convince the public that their science is settled, illustrations such as this one posted by NASA, hide all those uncertainties. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiREybV7-fLWDBnfzOWxAS5mCAIYmS9SQxIAlDGiOECNGTWjHEUTtlO4VALrU2pzw-XIXKHInDNiqqQ1pg2MF2D-j6Y15OhE8mvWsheCL6-NcUhhBC5-adsCzuLJMaz5c1jXnwgFWwz81oRNkdpYidfxoIgHP9oDNmtTyouLkeoaxpb7QaVp1gGMLPxlw/s2241/nasa%20energy%20budget.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1718" data-original-width="2241" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiREybV7-fLWDBnfzOWxAS5mCAIYmS9SQxIAlDGiOECNGTWjHEUTtlO4VALrU2pzw-XIXKHInDNiqqQ1pg2MF2D-j6Y15OhE8mvWsheCL6-NcUhhBC5-adsCzuLJMaz5c1jXnwgFWwz81oRNkdpYidfxoIgHP9oDNmtTyouLkeoaxpb7QaVp1gGMLPxlw/w640-h490/nasa%20energy%20budget.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Fortunately, the budget calculations by Stephens 2012 exhibited more integrity and highlighted those uncertainties. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHDPf4cWwPe8O9JEsoPoBrhjL9zX7ZEQ6eHhGsl9kyiE0sv3xBorlK7dzdDORjEKa8HA2yXLJ4xKeNfWG8y8_AAqtLeCoNjgkg6q5fkUwUSjP9Oj1RhRwNP6QvjQi6kHNHxqHWyIaQa6y0CHG7fzJABCO8hX31NB3IutSLEHxYDMrjDLegf9tDSSgniA/s1700/stephens%20energy%20budget%20with%20uncertainty.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1700" data-original-width="1672" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHDPf4cWwPe8O9JEsoPoBrhjL9zX7ZEQ6eHhGsl9kyiE0sv3xBorlK7dzdDORjEKa8HA2yXLJ4xKeNfWG8y8_AAqtLeCoNjgkg6q5fkUwUSjP9Oj1RhRwNP6QvjQi6kHNHxqHWyIaQa6y0CHG7fzJABCO8hX31NB3IutSLEHxYDMrjDLegf9tDSSgniA/w630-h640/stephens%20energy%20budget%20with%20uncertainty.jpg" width="630" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">NASA's yellow arrows show incoming absorbed and outgoing reflected solar radiation
NASA's red arrows show the outgoing infrared and the back radiation from greenhouse gases that recycle the infrared and delay the rate of the earth's cooling</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Nonetheless, eventually nearly all the infrared energy escapes back to space; Except an estimated mere 0.6 watts per meter squared, but with an uncertainty of + or - 0.4 watts </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Regards how much energy the ocean stores and releases, the uncertainty is huge. The uncertainty of the cooling effects by evaporation alone, or latent heat, is + or - 10 watts, overwhelming the estimate of a CO2 driven energy imbalance. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During the Little Ice Age, the oceans cooled for about 400 years. The Pacific was mostly in a persistent El Nino-like state, a condition that reduces how much heat is stored at depth relative to a La Nina like state. Solar minimums reduced the trade winds which the El Nino like state further weakened. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">One result of an El Nino-like ocean is the reduction of upwelling that brings nutrients to the sunlit layers. Thus, during the Little Ice Age the Pacific exhibited low biological productivity. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoPr1G4qIjHG4q2X9vncE3wmH83iIl6hwWt9Ajr3K1d07UYKDxqBwpIW4ozV7gJwXVMx2x-yesV1WWC4Gb8oH2qgGo2OfbRREw4rFr3gD4l79v8HrEANmoZPftt98nm8Gumwh9YKrKuIunsKrVJXV6jDptWGc8KGat4xjYarbN62QK_pzKOUcYLV6nsg/s1348/LIA%20modern%20upwelling%20chavez.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="838" data-original-width="1348" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoPr1G4qIjHG4q2X9vncE3wmH83iIl6hwWt9Ajr3K1d07UYKDxqBwpIW4ozV7gJwXVMx2x-yesV1WWC4Gb8oH2qgGo2OfbRREw4rFr3gD4l79v8HrEANmoZPftt98nm8Gumwh9YKrKuIunsKrVJXV6jDptWGc8KGat4xjYarbN62QK_pzKOUcYLV6nsg/w640-h398/LIA%20modern%20upwelling%20chavez.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Then in the early 1800s as solar irradiance rose the ocean entered a more La Nina-like state, increasing upwelling and ocean productivity. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWyiRw2nEe8ks1JQ0mgwOiBIKv9Zel7jiN9ViExjwuhrCY5MRNUQ8nXju7myjjbFqLjrSCXpf5GpWFLDmFSS_tcfUI23wlwo78XJeMUBxqZRkblOOVSyZ0D5kg1XX3Iljk95AA0TeWZfSC6EDigxdsqn0PiLL7fyFmZ_-cw2dsBK1yioTr6qji2bMiPA/s3510/strong%20trade%20winds%20sea%20level%20merrifield%202011.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1549" data-original-width="3510" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWyiRw2nEe8ks1JQ0mgwOiBIKv9Zel7jiN9ViExjwuhrCY5MRNUQ8nXju7myjjbFqLjrSCXpf5GpWFLDmFSS_tcfUI23wlwo78XJeMUBxqZRkblOOVSyZ0D5kg1XX3Iljk95AA0TeWZfSC6EDigxdsqn0PiLL7fyFmZ_-cw2dsBK1yioTr6qji2bMiPA/w640-h282/strong%20trade%20winds%20sea%20level%20merrifield%202011.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A switch to a more persistent La Nina-like state amplifies the trade winds and raises sea levels in the western Pacific. Accordingly, between 1993 and 2010 satellites observed western pacific sea levels rising many times higher than the global average. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The stronger winds of an La Nina-like state drive more warm water into the western Pacific, increasing the size and the depth of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. The warm pool's growing heat is then transported around the world. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7LW3qcdupu5pjnEjSG6LWHXZ8IfTppF7nZaMqDhqTUSid5So0tMa9ocdTW852s_Blj9npWFsgtFjVp8wqsshGmvG0xr8UN_hxmP4nlB7Ctphsl7Fbd3MKJKnvvDXq0tCGezfwinV4BTNzN66nnQpfWTRsyO-rCU87J3gbi34PFoCnRCs144w7YCwPww/s468/growing%20warm%20pool.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7LW3qcdupu5pjnEjSG6LWHXZ8IfTppF7nZaMqDhqTUSid5So0tMa9ocdTW852s_Blj9npWFsgtFjVp8wqsshGmvG0xr8UN_hxmP4nlB7Ctphsl7Fbd3MKJKnvvDXq0tCGezfwinV4BTNzN66nnQpfWTRsyO-rCU87J3gbi34PFoCnRCs144w7YCwPww/w640-h360/growing%20warm%20pool.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Oceans can warm just by reducing the overall cooling rate, even if there is no increase in absorbed heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During La Ninas, more heat is stored at depths, typically up to 200 meters, and those depths inhibit ventilation of that heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But the estimated 3 Watts/m2 of infrared heat from the back-radiation of greenhouse gases, never penetrates more than<b> a couple of microns</b> below the surface.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">For reference, a human hair is about 70 microns thick. And 1000 microns equal just one millimeter</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVPbSufNDVsYtIEeGCT-gaFKIz-btyHLw5R2uVQnZ_yOrGpTr3Gbk0eWM45rBKNAx9386ngVYkmPldVNvL3WFhzbsxuUhV115SB_TOy0vRq9ENl5XObg7Z2bddO80CeJOVv-LxW8m6i4O3EhxjBA3dpoJ1usAJ2xypJoTyMMOaeJ4mqDWRRQ7ghm6LIg/s392/greenhouse%20gas%20radiation%20penetration.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="220" data-original-width="392" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVPbSufNDVsYtIEeGCT-gaFKIz-btyHLw5R2uVQnZ_yOrGpTr3Gbk0eWM45rBKNAx9386ngVYkmPldVNvL3WFhzbsxuUhV115SB_TOy0vRq9ENl5XObg7Z2bddO80CeJOVv-LxW8m6i4O3EhxjBA3dpoJ1usAJ2xypJoTyMMOaeJ4mqDWRRQ7ghm6LIg/w640-h360/greenhouse%20gas%20radiation%20penetration.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In contrast hundreds of watts from sunlight energy can penetrate 10 million times deeper. Depending on how clear the water is, the shorter wavelengths of sunlight can penetrate to 100-meter depths.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSw_m4eFASJ37sghMvFr8N_xWF2wrmCppEawhh3H2KWgzCNKgNq-ASWD0vwMZUlgQr78yCaiY0qtGaGytLrsvatMi5nQeNzflMxP_nEbMlka50roQ2y2DYeENH-DwfSHRb3YIylb2Y_HiQzUFyRqmlzEEv1jQ1JOFZvgTEkkkqhZmN4aXydCU8iKBLgw/s3350/visible%20light%20penetration.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1086" data-original-width="3350" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSw_m4eFASJ37sghMvFr8N_xWF2wrmCppEawhh3H2KWgzCNKgNq-ASWD0vwMZUlgQr78yCaiY0qtGaGytLrsvatMi5nQeNzflMxP_nEbMlka50roQ2y2DYeENH-DwfSHRb3YIylb2Y_HiQzUFyRqmlzEEv1jQ1JOFZvgTEkkkqhZmN4aXydCU8iKBLgw/w640-h208/visible%20light%20penetration.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In general, a steady cooling of the ocean is controlled by a one-millimeter-thick layer at the surface. In addition, storms like hurricanes will episodically pull heat from the deeper layers. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Depending on depth of sunlight penetration, a layer up to 100 meters thick warms the ocean each day. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But that absorbed heat can only radiate away via the surface gateway that is less than 100 microns thick, termed the electromagnetic skin layer </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7mKowW-exdQdCB830h4uQXA4b9jiOs06P3H1ekhI7_-KpzFXzA28b_ekqvf1OFy6P4xTaPRi8EtJ4N63-QfzSivToo04aSCaydtF9cbU-_cznBvhCsbcqnQ-Q5mMDJnOepNQikS_NZE-KuKIVxMW6pxDAQvoblrP2zxRgylX7wIZ8SMq5WRc8ePsiFw/s1741/cooling%20skin%20layers%20of%20oceean.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1741" data-original-width="1645" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7mKowW-exdQdCB830h4uQXA4b9jiOs06P3H1ekhI7_-KpzFXzA28b_ekqvf1OFy6P4xTaPRi8EtJ4N63-QfzSivToo04aSCaydtF9cbU-_cznBvhCsbcqnQ-Q5mMDJnOepNQikS_NZE-KuKIVxMW6pxDAQvoblrP2zxRgylX7wIZ8SMq5WRc8ePsiFw/w604-h640/cooling%20skin%20layers%20of%20oceean.jpg" width="604" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In addition, heat can leave the ocean via contact with the air or via evaporation, which only happens from the 100-micron thick layer termed, the thermal skin layer</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Because this upper layer is always losing heat, it is cooler than the diurnal warm layer below and is sometimes called the cool skin layer. This cooler skin surface ensures the flow of heat is almost always from the warmer ocean layers back into the atmosphere. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As a result, <b>the micron thick layer that absorbs greenhouse infrared is always ventilating any absorbed heat back to the atmosphere, in contrast to the deeper and warmer solar heated layer</b>. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, it seems virtually certain that any change in ocean warming <b>must be driven by solar changes</b>, and not from any changing concentrations of greenhouse gases.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6D9PpxARcunY7K-6ScT0f8aTl4xMktjbLJwZyTlGxBqWdB4CSncGyVdzj96-x9LZeCkyqOQkFxysOwxAu_33fY3LGV3fmAgs9_bg66v5o3g2HkDOW5X5BY2NsAs_a0yopQfk81W3LXlhh48yYJmagXSMbJwdKN32f5suXpUckgJvSXpilEhILZKFyGw/s3895/el%20nino%20shallow%20theermocline.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1489" data-original-width="3895" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6D9PpxARcunY7K-6ScT0f8aTl4xMktjbLJwZyTlGxBqWdB4CSncGyVdzj96-x9LZeCkyqOQkFxysOwxAu_33fY3LGV3fmAgs9_bg66v5o3g2HkDOW5X5BY2NsAs_a0yopQfk81W3LXlhh48yYJmagXSMbJwdKN32f5suXpUckgJvSXpilEhILZKFyGw/w640-h244/el%20nino%20shallow%20theermocline.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During an El Nino event hot water in the western warm pool sloshes eastward across the pacific. Heated waters that had been stored at depths in the west is brought closer to the surface in the east. Where strong evaporation ventilates a portion of that heat and cools the ocean. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As that warm pool-heat then warms the eastern Pacific, it also reduces the trade winds, and sometimes, even reverses the trade winds’ direction creating feedback that prolongs an El Nino-like state. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Largely governed by the winds, the amount of transported hot water varies from year to year. In the 1600s, Peruvian fisherman named that warm water arrival "El Nino”, referring to baby Jesus, because the flow of warm water arrived each year around Christmas time. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Because El Ninos and La Ninas affect the winds and the jet streams and thus extreme weather patterns as detailed in part 2 of this series, to improve weather forecasting scientists measure changes in temperature within the Nino 3.4 area for statistical purposes. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVqRKYHEOjS8jBXR2BnDTCBQF4m6UA0bjE0x5aQqCM8w-aXRTkyZF94xgw0RqEfOUvlMinpnnVsIEkMuOXMMN-M7uikwZwPPGlyfOVlwGHmChNgW7fg6xWXVtNDjver3_DHNS1UnGel2x9Ue1PhJobxLBJPID6mKySObB37fM8I2M1d2tYp8wr1dHMIg/s3263/nino%203.4%20.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="3263" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVqRKYHEOjS8jBXR2BnDTCBQF4m6UA0bjE0x5aQqCM8w-aXRTkyZF94xgw0RqEfOUvlMinpnnVsIEkMuOXMMN-M7uikwZwPPGlyfOVlwGHmChNgW7fg6xWXVtNDjver3_DHNS1UnGel2x9Ue1PhJobxLBJPID6mKySObB37fM8I2M1d2tYp8wr1dHMIg/w640-h102/nino%203.4%20.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When temperatures rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for about 5 months, an El Nino is declared. When temperatures drop 0.5 degrees Celsius below average a La Nina event is declared. The greater the departure from average the stronger the events effects. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Scientists also classify El Ninos according to the varying distance across the pacific that the heated water travels</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Graphs of the globally averaged air temperatures are very sensitive to the heat released by El Ninos. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">El Ninos are clearly seen as temperature spikes.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn0_aCd0dXm_akYQ_nc9QXbGcguhcLLfI1ANEOfi2xGN1LuTiMvHdgG9BQ95-i_OrSjZWBnyA2EFZa-K3xs071l6RDoxEZUPF4LkAvm6vHWQZAR_ymyutFH1UDc4L529V2OqeHAQhujNll6YSIKgQ3B0OyZ2dOdj-GjIENWLNhDPggHqbwLSn_qPc7SA/s2392/global%20teemperature%20trend%20el%20nino.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1384" data-original-width="2392" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjn0_aCd0dXm_akYQ_nc9QXbGcguhcLLfI1ANEOfi2xGN1LuTiMvHdgG9BQ95-i_OrSjZWBnyA2EFZa-K3xs071l6RDoxEZUPF4LkAvm6vHWQZAR_ymyutFH1UDc4L529V2OqeHAQhujNll6YSIKgQ3B0OyZ2dOdj-GjIENWLNhDPggHqbwLSn_qPc7SA/w640-h370/global%20teemperature%20trend%20el%20nino.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To naive journalists and the general public such warm spikes appear to confirm the coming global warming crisis. But such graphs obscure real climate dynamics
As Kevin Trenberth, a chief architect of global warming theory admits, El Ninos are not just temporarily ventilating ocean heat, but cooling the earth's entire climate. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">On the other hand, the cooler temperatures in the graph are associated with neutral conditions and La Ninas due to the upwelling of cold subsurface waters. Paradoxically that's when the ocean is warming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Clearly because natural El Ninos and La Ninas have such critical effects on climate change, we would expect much more of the earth's warming to be attributed to ENSO dynamics. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But the reason CO2 gets the blame instead is quite clear. After more than a decade since James Hansen admitted the inability of climate models to reproduce El Nino La Nina ocean dynamics, climate models still do not accurately simulate them.
As published by climate scientists Michael Mayer, Trenberth, and others in 2016</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">"All climate models greatly underestimate changes in Pacific Ocean heat content"</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">"And climate models underestimate the redistribution of heated waters between varying depths and between the eastern and western ocean. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">"So, it is highly likely that climate models also underestimate La Nina’s contributions to the steady increase of heat in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool as well as underestimating the century rise in the average global temperature since the Little Ice Age termination when the pacific entered a more La Nina like state.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0xg11CJMpiMP5rRRxJsCWHKt8RtC28tO5A9Y-hqKhSlQYYOQW1dP2i5g41Da2He7xSgVPcEg1B6qq1IfJHucWD63u5C_gm99Jbn0dZ_ipCGNwSNZQd_us0wVK0HilmYY7_lpJk7HVM0qZkD1TjrqPUz8jXAwWl6z8qNhAYHaYtkYgTriwlJ5yaEGBFg/s2722/ocean%20pdo%20and%20index.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2002" data-original-width="2722" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0xg11CJMpiMP5rRRxJsCWHKt8RtC28tO5A9Y-hqKhSlQYYOQW1dP2i5g41Da2He7xSgVPcEg1B6qq1IfJHucWD63u5C_gm99Jbn0dZ_ipCGNwSNZQd_us0wVK0HilmYY7_lpJk7HVM0qZkD1TjrqPUz8jXAwWl6z8qNhAYHaYtkYgTriwlJ5yaEGBFg/w640-h470/ocean%20pdo%20and%20index.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Although an El Nino event lasts for about a year, its redistribution of heated water has much longer lasting effects associated with the pacific decadal oscillation</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The heated water that sloshed to the eastern Pacific doesn’t completely cool, causing the eastern tropical pacific to remain abnormally warm for 20 to 30 years.
The reduced trade winds and other circulation changes reduce transport of warm waters to the northern pacific making it abnormally cool. This pattern of ocean surface temperatures is labeled the positive phase of the pacific decadal oscillation and strongly alters weather patterns, especially for western north America</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As an El Nino's residual warm waters continue to cool or get transported back to the western pacific, the trade winds gradually increase, and the resulting upwelling cools the eastern pacific further. Circulation changes now pump more warm water into the northern Pacific. The resulting reversed temperature pattern is called the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and it amplifies the wavy jet stream over western North America increasing the probability of drought and heat waves. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The net increase in warm pool and global temperatures can be explained by an El Nino/La Nina Amplification effect</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During an El Nino, heated warm pool water moves eastward primarily along the North Equatorial Counter Current. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As El Nino gives way to more neutral and La Nina conditions, much of El Nino's residual warm water then re-circulates back to the warm pool via the north equatorial current and is reheated. This reheated water is slightly warmer than the heated cold-upwelled waters that largely fill the warm pool. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH5jtiXaZDTUvWNp0C_VWKJufrNm5ZuHNTrD5w6fvzdIHK5foRE7wgvrFs4ik588chYI526sjpIXVuFgUN1fSsrYAWVaJTzFvfiFscS0E12T6O_-S58ITcdHGS8aR_t0do8u_gvZVw_shT7B811uM_9SJA2X_886ulBVQ1_ZXshKCnttklt-LTCVh9wQ/s3474/pacific%20recirculation%20nino%20residual.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2167" data-original-width="3474" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH5jtiXaZDTUvWNp0C_VWKJufrNm5ZuHNTrD5w6fvzdIHK5foRE7wgvrFs4ik588chYI526sjpIXVuFgUN1fSsrYAWVaJTzFvfiFscS0E12T6O_-S58ITcdHGS8aR_t0do8u_gvZVw_shT7B811uM_9SJA2X_886ulBVQ1_ZXshKCnttklt-LTCVh9wQ/w640-h400/pacific%20recirculation%20nino%20residual.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Some of that reheated water also circulates northward to warm the northern Pacific. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">An independent climate researcher and author, Bob Tisdale, was the first to recognize the higher temperature effects resulting from a La Nina-like state reheating residual warm waters from an El Nino event. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The re-circulation and re-heating of residual warm El Nino waters results in a gradual stepwise warming of ocean temperatures after each El Nino event. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWKTLboRSCVfzJ8y4MKKeh7nW9RcOpgyGHkorRn2LcIDcznR5p19O82x70hkKqcA_DRauzvC0OP_kxzpmfKywT-srh8My3y2ETmh-d-xjtojVeK2STQiWXdZw55Ifsa8zANVFl7T6AtaezXnlNn2ZzcuNMxlpQVTyGWyr8JxXE5sS2LD0D67jfWOBsSA/s1024/tisdalee%20nino%20stepwise%20heating.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1004" data-original-width="1024" height="628" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWKTLboRSCVfzJ8y4MKKeh7nW9RcOpgyGHkorRn2LcIDcznR5p19O82x70hkKqcA_DRauzvC0OP_kxzpmfKywT-srh8My3y2ETmh-d-xjtojVeK2STQiWXdZw55Ifsa8zANVFl7T6AtaezXnlNn2ZzcuNMxlpQVTyGWyr8JxXE5sS2LD0D67jfWOBsSA/w640-h628/tisdalee%20nino%20stepwise%20heating.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The accumulating heat in the warm pool, then feeds the Ocean Conveyor Belt that transports that heat into the Indian Ocean, then the Atlantic and up into the Arctic as illustrated by the red loop. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhctaXum7eXcATTM6ggESxwHRkLKwdq2EYa_aTcJovCLOK4dYnW6KzL82vc7FItjS0-_zjFggYYdk62thVL3DORqF0tgJ4RR7rUKyeHNd9tK9_RA55Hqs_GZlljmWtUhdOF4logPtdqxQIy2QkibeC-tsrKpLwzEl3nSdsrGzt-fkQXiAAg56J8vjOwEQ/s1496/ocean%20conveyor%20belt.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="822" data-original-width="1496" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhctaXum7eXcATTM6ggESxwHRkLKwdq2EYa_aTcJovCLOK4dYnW6KzL82vc7FItjS0-_zjFggYYdk62thVL3DORqF0tgJ4RR7rUKyeHNd9tK9_RA55Hqs_GZlljmWtUhdOF4logPtdqxQIy2QkibeC-tsrKpLwzEl3nSdsrGzt-fkQXiAAg56J8vjOwEQ/w640-h352/ocean%20conveyor%20belt.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Higher sea levels in the western Pacific during La Ninas help push warm pool waters into the Indian Ocean. A portion of those waters are further heated in the Indian Ocean, which then get transported around southern Africa into the Atlantic – a dynamic referred to as the Agulhas leakage. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3YqrRhcOvDCEzgAcKVMfErwT-I2HraVDu6DRyfc5-0MV_FDgp3D5O5qCXBqqpipEcJKJSLj3cvs4JhEtWsT5JexmbiymATfPRFQ8TvO9GSvAgxRfLVOM3BOofExQ8ZTpWb7fDfCfO4GBqJ8MG32RdoELWTn9P1GivBRTirETIEbTIOrRFyEQpnhO2ag/s968/agulhas%20leakage.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="968" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3YqrRhcOvDCEzgAcKVMfErwT-I2HraVDu6DRyfc5-0MV_FDgp3D5O5qCXBqqpipEcJKJSLj3cvs4JhEtWsT5JexmbiymATfPRFQ8TvO9GSvAgxRfLVOM3BOofExQ8ZTpWb7fDfCfO4GBqJ8MG32RdoELWTn9P1GivBRTirETIEbTIOrRFyEQpnhO2ag/w640-h454/agulhas%20leakage.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Recent studies have detailed the pathway of Agulhas Leakage water into the Arctic</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">First across the southern Atlantic, then across northern brazil's coast and into the Caribbean, then up the east coast of North America and into the Arctic – linking La Nina warming to Arctic sea ice fluctuations.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglQBRZtaq-ltJzjxvOC_WxkkPLUBQGPC9dTZ6JXCd4fQm6KGrWxl1hVKNnX5m3xZyUUmd1lueGf3eQ1_-WCeThraxpF-Njl-EPpyHZ9OChtrTlHX43nSmZDIcsURyTg28T5ajm6HZbYIQY-_2of9YSgi3HfIPm18g56lM502sTAvQogub4P_0Wj6g15w/s774/agulhas%20amoc%20currents%20boweer%202019.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="774" height="568" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglQBRZtaq-ltJzjxvOC_WxkkPLUBQGPC9dTZ6JXCd4fQm6KGrWxl1hVKNnX5m3xZyUUmd1lueGf3eQ1_-WCeThraxpF-Njl-EPpyHZ9OChtrTlHX43nSmZDIcsURyTg28T5ajm6HZbYIQY-_2of9YSgi3HfIPm18g56lM502sTAvQogub4P_0Wj6g15w/w640-h568/agulhas%20amoc%20currents%20boweer%202019.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Oscillations in the Agulhas Leakage correlate with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which correlates with lost Arctic sea ice, as detailed in part one of this series. That lost ice allowed more stored Arctic heat to ventilate and increase the global temperature much like the ventilation of deep warm pool waters also raises global temperatures. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVn8lekQC-W4sAc-7TGT7nyi6Ep7VRJB0ahcVQAQFcwRC-N8DkqhNntAgUatjEXz9FTnNK_Y99se3L07qFdnvx9XL2F8hWevdPz0gAFFLGcB4zclfkVcRUJOG2S27-JdHP5povO7tf_WUQAvXgnUTPV3F-Flk9dRzey5kYtcX67aQCxSk9ATgnyvNkOg/s468/agulhas%20amo%20correlation.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVn8lekQC-W4sAc-7TGT7nyi6Ep7VRJB0ahcVQAQFcwRC-N8DkqhNntAgUatjEXz9FTnNK_Y99se3L07qFdnvx9XL2F8hWevdPz0gAFFLGcB4zclfkVcRUJOG2S27-JdHP5povO7tf_WUQAvXgnUTPV3F-Flk9dRzey5kYtcX67aQCxSk9ATgnyvNkOg/w640-h360/agulhas%20amo%20correlation.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As Hansen unintentionally predicted in 2006: “other combinations" such as discussed here, the transport of solar heated waters heated by more frequent La Nina events, can yield alternative causes that explain a comparable warming.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Up next: part 4 of the big 5 natural causes of climate change: landscape changes</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><b>Until then embrace renowned scientist Thomas Huxley’s advice: “skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin"</b></span></p>
</div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-82000282861931139972022-05-02T23:13:00.018-07:002022-05-03T12:25:19.116-07:00The Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change: part 2 Jet Streams and Extreme Weather
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This is the transcript to the video </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif"><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://youtu.be/I4_DjeCsgWk" target="_blank">The Big 5 Natural Causes of Climate Change: part 2 </a></span></span></span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://youtu.be/I4_DjeCsgWk" target="_blank"><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif"><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; white-space: nowrap;">Jet Streams and Extreme Weathe</span></span>r</a></span></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b>https://youtu.be/I4_DjeCsgWk</b></p><p style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK6Ndw2iggGw05YSiqvIKJO-6ZncAEqbeJzNNnvop4At7_AcSlhqgFiuH7shz1eBc6pGqF43PJeiELV52r03Fbr64Y1aOYyufXPb-Y9qzW_uqdbIZQNK1RQzmQZeTmwgJOeFYT7wGjSJeeAzopukFqc2zwySw0GUjdV1cRzQYIkNX_Kp-S2Ho1KhqtZQ/s1158/jet%20%20streams.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="832" data-original-width="1158" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK6Ndw2iggGw05YSiqvIKJO-6ZncAEqbeJzNNnvop4At7_AcSlhqgFiuH7shz1eBc6pGqF43PJeiELV52r03Fbr64Y1aOYyufXPb-Y9qzW_uqdbIZQNK1RQzmQZeTmwgJOeFYT7wGjSJeeAzopukFqc2zwySw0GUjdV1cRzQYIkNX_Kp-S2Ho1KhqtZQ/w640-h460/jet%20%20streams.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Welcome everyone. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This is part 2 of the big 5 natural causes of climate change: focusing on jet streams and extreme weather. Jet streams are high-altitude, fast-moving, narrow bands of winds that separate cold arctic air from warm tropical air. Jet streams are key to understanding climate change because they both create weather and steer weather around the globe. Unlike global warming, jet streams undeniably cause both extreme heat waves and extreme cold snaps as well as directly causing droughts and floods</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Jet streams cause extreme weather when their waviness increases and causes weather patterns to linger over a region longer than normal. Examinations of the jet stream's cycle of waviness was first published by MIT’s Carl-Gustav Rossby in the 1940s. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To honor his profound contributions to understanding atmospheric circulation and its effects on climate, wavy jet streams, as well as other wavy circulation patterns, are called Rossby waves</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Rossby insisted that the jet stream's wavy patterns were essential for the planet to achieve greater temperature equilibrium more efficiently as each wave's ridge transports more warm tropical air poleward and each trough drives more cold arctic air equator-ward.
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<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The jet stream normally steers mid-latitude weather systems relatively quickly from west to east across the globe. When that eastward movement slows, the jet streams become more wavy causing weather patterns to linger and extreme weather to evolve. Rossby noticed the minimal circulation speeds most frequently happened in late February and early march when sufficient cold arctic air reservoirs developed and pushed the jet stream equator-ward. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-cNOTmjqTOx7xkiGDpNqIAL0LUstfOo9VJBsshO9PkKBHL0dsFJ7vdAY4WaVQCEtKxZTxudTsbNNYIwO5Lx7ibkZE8oCk8O2iwT2UdR9Qjf2eswkr2A7y9otFtKKHLd01cBwRt_2KdkAR88IM1pTkjC2-9Jn8QCoZ1fPRydgdJ4dB1J7UaXWROpWbrg/s998/north%20atlantic%20oscillation.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="998" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-cNOTmjqTOx7xkiGDpNqIAL0LUstfOo9VJBsshO9PkKBHL0dsFJ7vdAY4WaVQCEtKxZTxudTsbNNYIwO5Lx7ibkZE8oCk8O2iwT2UdR9Qjf2eswkr2A7y9otFtKKHLd01cBwRt_2KdkAR88IM1pTkjC2-9Jn8QCoZ1fPRydgdJ4dB1J7UaXWROpWbrg/w640-h314/north%20atlantic%20oscillation.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Rossby developed a circulation index to track jet stream changes, but later, researchers developed the more commonly used North Atlantic Oscillation index based on changes in air pressure between Iceland and the Azores.
That index more easily identifies changes in the jet stream waviness and gave weather forecasters a higher degree of predictive skills. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZsPJy2pptFp4f7kURcc3q5MmKZpuY7rSObkLg0oc6vHw9TM4nPtrCJZqKnZIPo9NZQKREGMlJ5WrcBhpDceIX-LnMN5YiiYzujYoKcpQSQyVePaAz-1iwdgsMgki6-dN5hO1fpNqbUX8_CQ2tOcFnuCNIfvdHeEtpZZE7uk2v0aZQR5Tbn-QB_ZHPLw/s1000/nao%20trend.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="553" data-original-width="1000" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZsPJy2pptFp4f7kURcc3q5MmKZpuY7rSObkLg0oc6vHw9TM4nPtrCJZqKnZIPo9NZQKREGMlJ5WrcBhpDceIX-LnMN5YiiYzujYoKcpQSQyVePaAz-1iwdgsMgki6-dN5hO1fpNqbUX8_CQ2tOcFnuCNIfvdHeEtpZZE7uk2v0aZQR5Tbn-QB_ZHPLw/w640-h354/nao%20trend.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During a large pressure difference, or positive phase, a more zonal jet stream flow will evolve, bringing warmer, wetter weather to northern Europe. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When pressure differences are below average, or the negative phase, a wavier jet stream evolves causing more unpredictable weather, blocking patterns, and extreme weather. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The index shown here is just for the winter months, as that's when the earth's oscillation is the greatest. However, the index here uses annual averages that don’t reveal critical monthly changes in waviness. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO7rksFInmwF9vUqrXjWYjgMa9C92bN2zHZZ0KNNo__CkNfcb6Gtu68CnUA9uQ_aona3gNmuv4k9AD_2X2O1Kyoov1fLw5afYgBdjD3fKiAg_d_cNsMG_BFJm-tqsCSGw5mPr7vQZlbVkUrPyzGyvPorM8I2hKGdcZKmJIp3-2ViezjEzpLn5F3JH3Dg/s300/5%20wave%20arctic%20oscill.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="300" height="561" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO7rksFInmwF9vUqrXjWYjgMa9C92bN2zHZZ0KNNo__CkNfcb6Gtu68CnUA9uQ_aona3gNmuv4k9AD_2X2O1Kyoov1fLw5afYgBdjD3fKiAg_d_cNsMG_BFJm-tqsCSGw5mPr7vQZlbVkUrPyzGyvPorM8I2hKGdcZKmJIp3-2ViezjEzpLn5F3JH3Dg/w640-h561/5%20wave%20arctic%20oscill.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The dynamics that drive the north Atlantic oscillation also drive the more global arctic oscillation. The illustration shown here shows the jet stream encircling the earth in 5 long waves. But with better satellite data we now know the jet stream may exhibit just 2 waves or many different numbers of waves depending on interactions with other climate dynamics. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A wavy jet stream generates its own weather. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy1ztEVI4Er9F2qUqYGvh-FzaNBE2DujAWUQxa0bvw6iZmTJRIpOIsWpnE6SeGVuFvCm7frNd1dzL5x0SeKxuaHChYE0z6dhY6IAuqP7ST2ZON0CWS-LsfWphLmsSbNCZDK_p7fiJ-xIYk5-vCQH5XGHcGh_Nn88HZtOeUbCdbSYuFarrhEU324v7KAg/s1610/jet%20stream%20causes%20weather.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="1610" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjy1ztEVI4Er9F2qUqYGvh-FzaNBE2DujAWUQxa0bvw6iZmTJRIpOIsWpnE6SeGVuFvCm7frNd1dzL5x0SeKxuaHChYE0z6dhY6IAuqP7ST2ZON0CWS-LsfWphLmsSbNCZDK_p7fiJ-xIYk5-vCQH5XGHcGh_Nn88HZtOeUbCdbSYuFarrhEU324v7KAg/w640-h332/jet%20stream%20causes%20weather.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Winds exiting a jet stream's ridge converge forcing air downward, generating a surface high pressure system and warmer, dry weather</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As winds exit a jet stream's trough, the upper winds speed up creating a quasi-vacuum that induces upward air motion that generates a surface low pressure system and stormy wet weather</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaiSL58iv2cZfGmy9D0RLzwEX-0C1dxOX9hzUUV4i9Ptf44LR52_i73_1ieIHkHmPAbLQLZCLCjlDQbAk63nSZUKV_mqrHIlyhXZn_a6u5Blc6NlOXWRdGt99YyhPl9X1RwXQ41_Eo6V29mIsvdtxrYFNirnz5-LtQER45h2JtWeuSzrAafojUjPQM1g/s1042/summer%20winter%20jet%20stream.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="762" data-original-width="1042" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaiSL58iv2cZfGmy9D0RLzwEX-0C1dxOX9hzUUV4i9Ptf44LR52_i73_1ieIHkHmPAbLQLZCLCjlDQbAk63nSZUKV_mqrHIlyhXZn_a6u5Blc6NlOXWRdGt99YyhPl9X1RwXQ41_Eo6V29mIsvdtxrYFNirnz5-LtQER45h2JtWeuSzrAafojUjPQM1g/w640-h468/summer%20winter%20jet%20stream.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The intertropical convergence zone's or ITCZ seasonal migrations affect the jet stream's location. During our summer the ITCZ and the jet streams move northward inhibiting cold polar air from pushing southward while also allowing more warm and moist air to migrate northward. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Some of the observed global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age is due to the ITCZ’s and jet stream's northward migration from its much more southward location 200 years ago. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During our winter the ITCZ and jet stream move equator-ward allowing colder air to push southward as well as increasing the jet's waviness</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The dry high-pressure system forming beneath a jet's ridge, pulls warm tropical air northwards on its western side as well as promoting clear skies and greater solar heating. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The low-pressure system forming in the jet stream's trough pulls colder arctic air southward as well as promoting cloudiness and rain. This dynamic partially explains why the south- eastern united states has long been dubbed a "warming hole."
</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyXv5beaFzbVDaMI5ZQf2AHndmmuP_7DuhYUDeNQ0URBsTc_GamEUvuVqbST61yNq_aKndAmjzjwAcfZ4Y2VUd3hZYKpZx3d6Io8SVwgybBcnEYxoDcCnHkB9TTmrNnfZulJsGBJ37ehXCaqSPDstwPPQ-PPPxr_CUh0O-yZkRDup_AksrjjrXyyO0GQ/s4221/cooling%20usa%20temps%20jet%20stream%20trough.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1526" data-original-width="4221" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyXv5beaFzbVDaMI5ZQf2AHndmmuP_7DuhYUDeNQ0URBsTc_GamEUvuVqbST61yNq_aKndAmjzjwAcfZ4Y2VUd3hZYKpZx3d6Io8SVwgybBcnEYxoDcCnHkB9TTmrNnfZulJsGBJ37ehXCaqSPDstwPPQ-PPPxr_CUh0O-yZkRDup_AksrjjrXyyO0GQ/w640-h232/cooling%20usa%20temps%20jet%20stream%20trough.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">That warming hole gets obscured by temperature statistics that are averaged nationally and globally. However, a recent study shows that 34% of all USA weather stations with at least 70 years of data, (represented by blue dots), exhibit cooling trends and most are concentrated in the jet stream's trough. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Knowing that published temperature data, when the government falsely claims in its "Climate Resilience Tool Kit", that cities in the southeast are at risk due to heat from climate change, that false claim only generates mistrust for the government's climate science narratives</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEs1l4cTy4pQSskizDrmNlBG9Q-bw0AZEWJX8dIeWyCaIbsvX_4o6ihCl4sajZIm4DlLI9-V16xSv9vJjJ-qQI1L1tWiLZAZq0TvS_tusELFUy_prxRZWy3B3pqE8xgSjnUtMblWkTd3vhNoCfgof1d3wy3htGb5kcQ9UPpz4N2MEAS3JcWF6wbyAfYQ/s1110/US%20climate%20tool%20kit.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="1110" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEs1l4cTy4pQSskizDrmNlBG9Q-bw0AZEWJX8dIeWyCaIbsvX_4o6ihCl4sajZIm4DlLI9-V16xSv9vJjJ-qQI1L1tWiLZAZq0TvS_tusELFUy_prxRZWy3B3pqE8xgSjnUtMblWkTd3vhNoCfgof1d3wy3htGb5kcQ9UPpz4N2MEAS3JcWF6wbyAfYQ/w640-h168/US%20climate%20tool%20kit.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Aligning with Rossby’s observation that the jet stream's greatest waviness occurs during winter when the reservoir of cold arctic air reaches a maximum, the jet stream dove deep into the southern United States between February 12th-19th, in 2021.
Arctic air caused the regions colored purple to remain below freezing for over 160 hours. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQwYK-IOT_29nkrS32llc9rP0eh3gBYwn4hYZOPAWHAWGtUUk_RXz717Xp1_d2rZpIXBb4dEklhMZysyXOjrDyvSRKonK1mYIhIZh35mjRfEP7Aof4bUfKrlW_6-3f1pXrUTDR8WDPUPF2NTuAvi1gglh1oDW0iTRNcdRT0ZYyh6W9O42jgycdisrMiA/s4207/2021%20cold%20snap%201889.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1168" data-original-width="4207" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQwYK-IOT_29nkrS32llc9rP0eh3gBYwn4hYZOPAWHAWGtUUk_RXz717Xp1_d2rZpIXBb4dEklhMZysyXOjrDyvSRKonK1mYIhIZh35mjRfEP7Aof4bUfKrlW_6-3f1pXrUTDR8WDPUPF2NTuAvi1gglh1oDW0iTRNcdRT0ZYyh6W9O42jgycdisrMiA/w640-h178/2021%20cold%20snap%201889.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Global warming was unlikely to have had an effect as that cold snap resembled the cold snap of 1899, also in February. Judging from san Antonio’s 7 coldest temperatures, these extreme cold snaps happen every few decades</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Just 4 months later around the 2021 summer solstice, a wavy jet stream created a heat wave over western north America, causing Lytton British Columbia to experience record-breaking heat from June 27th to 29th. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLXOp00nY65HE1G570ZIeI2azYFUS0mF3QBBBoNnj0VTd5SBl4VlCJkcSAgQgL3u0S8faRCbyFX_TZYSjwRF9FJzrex0LZGFBbu1mwNjr1hI4rZoVAMEjuBrCkieTXwvMDZDSb4mGIUQw1QuqsaqAJkhVvPnQpjRiEqlVnL9L7Efv3cbPR5WXYlfo2cg/s1006/lytton%20heeat%20wave%20omegajpg.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="1006" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLXOp00nY65HE1G570ZIeI2azYFUS0mF3QBBBoNnj0VTd5SBl4VlCJkcSAgQgL3u0S8faRCbyFX_TZYSjwRF9FJzrex0LZGFBbu1mwNjr1hI4rZoVAMEjuBrCkieTXwvMDZDSb4mGIUQw1QuqsaqAJkhVvPnQpjRiEqlVnL9L7Efv3cbPR5WXYlfo2cg/w640-h388/lytton%20heeat%20wave%20omegajpg.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In line with expected temperature variations that wavy jet streams cause, while the north-west was baking, the southwest was cooler than normal. Western North America’s geography appears to favor a wavy jet stream pattern</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">British Columbia’s previous heat record that happened in 1941 was also set in Lytton, giving the town the nick name of "Canada’s hot spot" The wavy jet stream simply induced a blocking pattern, here an omega block, causing the high-pressure system to remain over Lytton for several days driving temperatures higher with each passing day. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAgvttxjxM0VSSISeD5Wto0r-rmPayN6Aaay-pxKY0Z8OFwsvSgR7YHzOjZYRBzerm920D2Nk9-VqfjZ5DP8gXv9ib2mrQSqI7C7gjv1QFlq6fTJ43Y7bSrErRPrKrrBRrlMsU_v8qAipfyF2Py2Alc3xxDXGLW2Vu5-5VAk0zlJZRmZ5eZQjdD5uF5w/s421/lytton%20north%20america%20temperature%20jet.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="421" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAgvttxjxM0VSSISeD5Wto0r-rmPayN6Aaay-pxKY0Z8OFwsvSgR7YHzOjZYRBzerm920D2Nk9-VqfjZ5DP8gXv9ib2mrQSqI7C7gjv1QFlq6fTJ43Y7bSrErRPrKrrBRrlMsU_v8qAipfyF2Py2Alc3xxDXGLW2Vu5-5VAk0zlJZRmZ5eZQjdD5uF5w/w640-h464/lytton%20north%20america%20temperature%20jet.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A pseudo-science group called "World Weather Attribution" claimed their analyses showed it would be impossible for the Lytton heat wave to happen without human caused climate change. Similarly, click bait media and alarmist scientists echoed the same narratives. But the scientific evidence does not back them up! </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhojtMH_OcVE45opN7EcHRD3lzvGu_WrQ4KzJoF8bBJ45JfAZ5Ofs5-1yYfqpjY_UlKVZsUolkFpD4tG5qCdwc4SnmCOaIYmEnx3HT3sjZdhNmP9f89Py06Pw3MD8CvMkWoAL2yNUn_EA45ybmIeHegD1G7H4G-IYFd2wGnZWB8JQCfK5dTWophnmYdRg/s1020/Sun%202022%2030%20year%20cooling%20northwest.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="458" data-original-width="1020" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhojtMH_OcVE45opN7EcHRD3lzvGu_WrQ4KzJoF8bBJ45JfAZ5Ofs5-1yYfqpjY_UlKVZsUolkFpD4tG5qCdwc4SnmCOaIYmEnx3HT3sjZdhNmP9f89Py06Pw3MD8CvMkWoAL2yNUn_EA45ybmIeHegD1G7H4G-IYFd2wGnZWB8JQCfK5dTWophnmYdRg/w640-h288/Sun%202022%2030%20year%20cooling%20northwest.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A recent 2022 peer reviewed study shows this region has been cooling for the past 30 years. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The jet streams omega block kept a heat dome in place for several days enabling natural dynamics to amplify the temperature. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6bx3nd6Qkz3Nzoga6NlmJjqd_DfduDb4Etefdnt27Wa6Y-uvn2qunJI1Io6af5jV6KouB04uM_MXQGzljA_dZhlhuQ-Ut9Tz124tcVMo31-t0gcCQTTD00MAHiJDYysY8869d2L-L1OQzes_pRkSGcm3lnjkDg9ApHEFTU4F4SRr0J2bblM75qvn32g/s1224/heat%20dome1.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="790" data-original-width="1224" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6bx3nd6Qkz3Nzoga6NlmJjqd_DfduDb4Etefdnt27Wa6Y-uvn2qunJI1Io6af5jV6KouB04uM_MXQGzljA_dZhlhuQ-Ut9Tz124tcVMo31-t0gcCQTTD00MAHiJDYysY8869d2L-L1OQzes_pRkSGcm3lnjkDg9ApHEFTU4F4SRr0J2bblM75qvn32g/w640-h414/heat%20dome1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The high-pressure system pulled warm tropical air northward into the region</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Dry air in a high-pressure system produces clear skies increasing solar heating</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Descending air also heats as it sinks plus that sinking air prevents</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Surface cooling via rising convection</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Rocky Mountains and the ocean and land temperature differences frequently promote jet stream waviness over North America’s west coast. Small disturbance in the jet stream's summer flow can quickly evolve into an omega block and a heat wave.
The evolution of a fluid's looping flow is common in all the earth's currents.....
Be it water or be it air. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">My research with meadow restoration observed that evolving dynamic in meadow streams. Small differences in surface hardness causes small waves to evolve in the stream's channel. The wave's curvature alters the stream's speeds which naturally amplify the waviness over years, and the stream erodes the banks to evolve into omega configurations. Eventually the waviness amplifies enough to cause that part of the channel to break off from the main flow forming stagnant oxbow lakes. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFjPWEOyHtG0p8AW_GHmApqYH5Wi_84osjHVlzLTz-VsXOAl2ljzcyJskvYvDwdd9wtsFyQc6A3e9lmuzzURRIN08y4vY1WcDb805u0IYzZC6cXz08GSsh8Q-sin2IoFH8qsn0_nd3b6eOx4jvvd_nQZ3UeMwPLYry9RxAZKz54YgJli6yoB8OHexrOg/s520/stream%20omega%20curve.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="332" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFjPWEOyHtG0p8AW_GHmApqYH5Wi_84osjHVlzLTz-VsXOAl2ljzcyJskvYvDwdd9wtsFyQc6A3e9lmuzzURRIN08y4vY1WcDb805u0IYzZC6cXz08GSsh8Q-sin2IoFH8qsn0_nd3b6eOx4jvvd_nQZ3UeMwPLYry9RxAZKz54YgJli6yoB8OHexrOg/w408-h640/stream%20omega%20curve.jpg" width="408" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Unconstrained by the land, the same natural flow dynamics cause eddies to pinch off from the main flow of the Gulf Stream in just a matter of days. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Likewise small disturbances to the jet stream cause omega blocks and eddies known as cutoff lows or cutoff highs to evolve in just a few days, no matter how climate is changing. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBwb3U0sJSs25l2WcmjeorU19NxMQz1NDApQw7qjfpsl_aaY6AJ2hmrFRbK0GoAFfGc4HQZslLkL4wIidFB04Wzx_xMp96sx6sblQPTApQ7HHMDiKTnhqgStV54u7otxGZFdCF--xZD7aHYdohJQsrZiwQ0PHpFcafNta2wJ7srPRvDlm683MzJjNnVA/s564/gulf%20stream%20eddy%20formations.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="564" height="596" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBwb3U0sJSs25l2WcmjeorU19NxMQz1NDApQw7qjfpsl_aaY6AJ2hmrFRbK0GoAFfGc4HQZslLkL4wIidFB04Wzx_xMp96sx6sblQPTApQ7HHMDiKTnhqgStV54u7otxGZFdCF--xZD7aHYdohJQsrZiwQ0PHpFcafNta2wJ7srPRvDlm683MzJjNnVA/w640-h596/gulf%20stream%20eddy%20formations.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In 1948 Rossby published that jet stream meanders frequently increase in amplitude until troughs and ridges are cut off from the main current" A recent 2022 peer reviewed study illustrated just how the omega block evolved and enabled the record 2021 heat wave. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The column to the left shows how the jet stream evolved from a relatively straight west to east flow on June 22nd, a looping wave and an omega block by June 24th and by June 26th the loop was ready to cut off from the jet stream flow. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEislFCnvAvbDv9GPc1tHDDviScgFzwek75ZlBW1dlsqd8s6J5FOd5bYu0Tebn09vaVERCICwsDx1LDacdYMNsLS7Ldb-XfE7frMftlZp5U7mkOr-5dx_AjiPhsYxOdBqIY-vri0M9A2qLSrxNKwig8boSmAeVsbMtZGNv9aaOA2fLM9XdunBP_e5MWrhw/s2805/sun%202022%20Lytton%20omega%20evolution.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2030" data-original-width="2805" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEislFCnvAvbDv9GPc1tHDDviScgFzwek75ZlBW1dlsqd8s6J5FOd5bYu0Tebn09vaVERCICwsDx1LDacdYMNsLS7Ldb-XfE7frMftlZp5U7mkOr-5dx_AjiPhsYxOdBqIY-vri0M9A2qLSrxNKwig8boSmAeVsbMtZGNv9aaOA2fLM9XdunBP_e5MWrhw/w640-h464/sun%202022%20Lytton%20omega%20evolution.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The column on the right shows how air temperatures changed, and the authors stated "an upper-level atmospheric blocking snatched a warm pool of air from lower latitudes” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">El Nino’s can alter a jet stream's flow by warming the eastern Pacific’s surface temperatures. The increased convection also initiates a train of alternating high- and low-pressure systems that can amplify or reduce a jet stream's waviness elsewhere</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During a la Nina, colder eastern pacific waters amplify a high-pressure system that forces moisture carrying westerly winds northward causing more drought in California and the west coast. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaR0z4XHnZxw3pN-EOXYebk4iWtZK1olz0cJhESgcS9vIFHrOQTAeYXV0zDy1uE1ids5yfOZdRm-DylxeKZ8gilAmGo8lA-A04-Fpq5cs65g5I54TuunwCfInWh12SLSY8tFld_kmaM63YtzzX5yTKb7wRNQVhxTbmD6ez1eVCLFHt61wrL5s0QGX7wQ/s4331/la%20nina%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1425" data-original-width="4331" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaR0z4XHnZxw3pN-EOXYebk4iWtZK1olz0cJhESgcS9vIFHrOQTAeYXV0zDy1uE1ids5yfOZdRm-DylxeKZ8gilAmGo8lA-A04-Fpq5cs65g5I54TuunwCfInWh12SLSY8tFld_kmaM63YtzzX5yTKb7wRNQVhxTbmD6ez1eVCLFHt61wrL5s0QGX7wQ/w640-h210/la%20nina%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It is likely that, decadal changes in the jet streams position are partially driven by changes in El Ninos and La Ninas</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Elsewhere, Greenland’s heat waves and melting ice sheet coincides with a decreasing North Atlantic Oscillation, and an increasingly wavy jet stream, which caused a high-pressure system to sit over the ice sheet and increase solar heating. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW4iLSV-9oUMx7kB9ZH8mRpffE3Za11jyWeV0jm66DLzDvIwHqxRPIHLx5zM7fRgzgMjLNFwiVcvT9pQlO1IjiZTHgks9n30oyMviEyjStzQU_fupuY32oh4R3vw1-y-nHs0JfNxJHcFyoTGzE9876m6E-4ypaI_yxPF0uUx2htqiyAiUQch7qq_TMTw/s1989/greenland%20melt%20rive2r.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1989" data-original-width="1837" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW4iLSV-9oUMx7kB9ZH8mRpffE3Za11jyWeV0jm66DLzDvIwHqxRPIHLx5zM7fRgzgMjLNFwiVcvT9pQlO1IjiZTHgks9n30oyMviEyjStzQU_fupuY32oh4R3vw1-y-nHs0JfNxJHcFyoTGzE9876m6E-4ypaI_yxPF0uUx2htqiyAiUQch7qq_TMTw/w592-h640/greenland%20melt%20rive2r.jpg" width="592" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The 2017 Hofer paper demonstrated that a wavier jet induced less clouds that increased surface melt (the red curve). Less clouds allowed more summer solar heating, represented here by the orange curve, and labeled (jja swd) </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUr5aYlnI-Bq_FNBjoongpO1GeuAnWHHKXFNUxnDVOkGnAlVB3U8WIx_B5dvOTCpfcPlpC9dz9Hs7M_lYjt2l_AI3SVHPYk7DFOWpe5NZj6_n4zpmlKAQfqLnLVYqBucUzKsfre8BKyr5nSpXuNVDnGhqi1hHUQqhKZ_TURfNKgW9Y_OOht-CsyB0xWw/s692/Ofer%202017%20increase%20solar%20melt%20greenland.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="596" data-original-width="692" height="552" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUr5aYlnI-Bq_FNBjoongpO1GeuAnWHHKXFNUxnDVOkGnAlVB3U8WIx_B5dvOTCpfcPlpC9dz9Hs7M_lYjt2l_AI3SVHPYk7DFOWpe5NZj6_n4zpmlKAQfqLnLVYqBucUzKsfre8BKyr5nSpXuNVDnGhqi1hHUQqhKZ_TURfNKgW9Y_OOht-CsyB0xWw/w640-h552/Ofer%202017%20increase%20solar%20melt%20greenland.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Although the increased solar heating increased the amount of longwave infrared, the lack of clouds caused a reduction in net greenhouse warming causing a steadily decreasing effect on ice sheet melting represented by the purple curve. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In 2015 scientist were confused when Greenland’s summer melt was unusually rapid only in the colder northwest region, while little melt was happening in the warmer southeast region. But a cutoff high explained that climate oddity</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Here is the national weather services' global reconstruction of the upper atmosphere in summer 2015, with the jet streams shown in red. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf8yHV3HVSp563N7iRX377LRz2uxP_IIuJFbvAqSoBF7uvTpjhshq-D52gYOjmsTwC9jP44ODuB9l5HNdzG4VFlFGHkTCrw7jSNa3JgT6X5qfpBFT8HE-sp4wxXhGocztStY3_Zr34xjxLbCXsDt2gMsw6HvIM0AME3RGtZ-tHzblJzOZnVm98IdEdEQ/s1166/null%20wchool%20jet%20wave.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1166" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf8yHV3HVSp563N7iRX377LRz2uxP_IIuJFbvAqSoBF7uvTpjhshq-D52gYOjmsTwC9jP44ODuB9l5HNdzG4VFlFGHkTCrw7jSNa3JgT6X5qfpBFT8HE-sp4wxXhGocztStY3_Zr34xjxLbCXsDt2gMsw6HvIM0AME3RGtZ-tHzblJzOZnVm98IdEdEQ/w640-h366/null%20wchool%20jet%20wave.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Notice in the northern hemisphere the jet’s wave is not as amplified as in the southern hemisphere despite reduced Arctic sea ice. Also notice that no jet stream ridge nor its high-pressure systems sit over Greenland during this time. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj40Yze9hpUl5r-w38UcTqiZWmQzZw-ST9KNwXuhzxEX0Z9yQFFnkZWPGFWZfS66sppUNMTOQbFnyuHZmBLU3lJ2BFzcN27RSWroBKoxDTvEPiZDY5M2E9i7CY-lqGMGnEBlj7TXahj_sH2d00H2IoWxb5OyutlvmrUetSUwg2xS6U9aM5m3SQFmqXf5w/s1517/cutoff%20greenland%20high.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1517" data-original-width="1430" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj40Yze9hpUl5r-w38UcTqiZWmQzZw-ST9KNwXuhzxEX0Z9yQFFnkZWPGFWZfS66sppUNMTOQbFnyuHZmBLU3lJ2BFzcN27RSWroBKoxDTvEPiZDY5M2E9i7CY-lqGMGnEBlj7TXahj_sH2d00H2IoWxb5OyutlvmrUetSUwg2xS6U9aM5m3SQFmqXf5w/w604-h640/cutoff%20greenland%20high.jpg" width="604" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The extreme melting was the result of a cutoff high that had detached from the jet stream and moved northward. Free from being steered eastward by the jet, the cutoff high created a heat dome that remained over northwestern Greenland for many, many days</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Also, in 2021, western Germany experienced extreme flooding in July driven by a jet stream's cutoff low. But again, the World Weather Attribution published the floods were made worse by CO2 global warming. And again, that claim was echoed by click-bait media and alarmist scientists. They all offered the same irrelevant narrative that in a warmer world, the air holds more moisture to produce extreme rainfall. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But the real cause was the dynamics of a cut-off low that concentrated the moisture in that region for days</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Cut off lows are called weatherman’s woes because it unpredictably causes extreme weather. Cut off lows form from the same naturally evolving fluid dynamics that cause cutoff highs and omega blocks</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIb6tNTANpwFq-NCQn65nb-q-6DH4IkyH1tDDJJkoXwKMBNqwmAuy7ts5fTBhXIae2xoqMzJiuc7TPi1reBGkDTFVlPKdx5SVAb4HwmkxYo6xnIQ-tCVoTKzEgsGT7DmHgvfnubdBEQG_m4fx01k0WFXrexpb5z9Tp1_DDD2zHisHOXvPnyTWEMhUlyA/s1769/cutoff%20low%20formation.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1769" data-original-width="531" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIb6tNTANpwFq-NCQn65nb-q-6DH4IkyH1tDDJJkoXwKMBNqwmAuy7ts5fTBhXIae2xoqMzJiuc7TPi1reBGkDTFVlPKdx5SVAb4HwmkxYo6xnIQ-tCVoTKzEgsGT7DmHgvfnubdBEQG_m4fx01k0WFXrexpb5z9Tp1_DDD2zHisHOXvPnyTWEMhUlyA/w192-h640/cutoff%20low%20formation.jpg" width="192" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In this weather map, notice only at the center of the cut off low is there enough abundant moisture, indicated by the red color, to promote the heavy flooding.
Despite claims of a global warming effect, all the surrounding regions contained below average atmospheric moisture. Extreme rainfall happened because the cutoff low remained in place for days, continuously concentrating moisture over the region. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbM7cFIp_AixWS4w7pLWemod7W8d74gsnli9ppX-Gw8nxN-6osXn008A_D8ItvSCK1nw6gu8lgTfD2ppWfG2XhCoI9aKzjh2JXdU2ABorVPu9pY-782l94CfUqyDjaNiOB23n6gNIH9wQqRQRrcO6gt1NaOiqw-vFtSDbXHREF3N_Ku5yetJx9lZ9tvw/s934/cutoff%20low%20concentrate%20moisture%20.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="770" data-original-width="934" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbM7cFIp_AixWS4w7pLWemod7W8d74gsnli9ppX-Gw8nxN-6osXn008A_D8ItvSCK1nw6gu8lgTfD2ppWfG2XhCoI9aKzjh2JXdU2ABorVPu9pY-782l94CfUqyDjaNiOB23n6gNIH9wQqRQRrcO6gt1NaOiqw-vFtSDbXHREF3N_Ku5yetJx9lZ9tvw/w640-h528/cutoff%20low%20concentrate%20moisture%20.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Cutoff lows are unusual events. But a 2008 scientific paper detailed how the geography of this region promotes 33% of all the global cutoff lows events</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But cut off lows are not needed to bring unusually heavy rains.
The flooding in Great Britain happened as the trough of the jet stream migrated southward causing a stormy low-pressure system to migrate over Great Britain
And linger there due to an omega block over Scandinavia</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Sadly, the Scientific American has devolved into click bait fear mongering, highlighting journalist Chelsea Harvey’s spooky fabrications of looming mass extinctions and other climate disasters. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhezD5fiMfHHrEcQtBbMXzNfwBIp0XTpbf8xsWyo-EvfK8t5MKvUNy4IuigQh1QWmCHxICd1tB7ULxL4hEbvEuyakXErBIA2T_11S9MQlA6eRGcSw_J_1tqTB4rUGgjxRMDpNEaB-MtE8-XBXVV2ySw4pgZWVfk7VwCwsanNc6hdlGJkFNFZbvSseIxBA/s802/=sci%20ameerican%20jet%20article.%20jpg.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="392" data-original-width="802" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhezD5fiMfHHrEcQtBbMXzNfwBIp0XTpbf8xsWyo-EvfK8t5MKvUNy4IuigQh1QWmCHxICd1tB7ULxL4hEbvEuyakXErBIA2T_11S9MQlA6eRGcSw_J_1tqTB4rUGgjxRMDpNEaB-MtE8-XBXVV2ySw4pgZWVfk7VwCwsanNc6hdlGJkFNFZbvSseIxBA/w640-h312/=sci%20ameerican%20jet%20article.%20jpg.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Last year Scientific American published Harvey’s tabloid piece regards how climate change will shift the jet stream and tragically disrupt the world's weather.
To her credit, she did note such claims were highly controversial with no consensus among scientists. However, she highlighted a 2021 paper by Osman and although the reconstructed evidence, as shown here, shows that for over a thousand years the jet stream has always been driven by natural variability, and despite the evidence that since the Little Ice Age, the jet stream’s natural variability has shown no trends related to rising CO2. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKhBkWcRjVK1WYDKowbUVmOvlmuRVv0tiI5Jkjw0c_xb8BcyYWVh8vb9jss-K4szPRjh8hyoauZNZVKFZ-IK8dBBsOzwWNg8zzMJhUs4TQ8HPQcKw6tuchNJ6QnuGcjzmuEfy9dBe0DZxR0Bvk07IiOcCmMoPmZHdiKeC2Y5pyS2NBNnsA7j2xUwZaQ/s1168/osman%20jet%20trend.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="590" data-original-width="1168" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKhBkWcRjVK1WYDKowbUVmOvlmuRVv0tiI5Jkjw0c_xb8BcyYWVh8vb9jss-K4szPRjh8hyoauZNZVKFZ-IK8dBBsOzwWNg8zzMJhUs4TQ8HPQcKw6tuchNJ6QnuGcjzmuEfy9dBe0DZxR0Bvk07IiOcCmMoPmZHdiKeC2Y5pyS2NBNnsA7j2xUwZaQ/w640-h324/osman%20jet%20trend.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Still Osman, Harvey and the Scientific American all want the public to believe that in just 40 years further rising CO2 will suddenly overwhelm natural variations and push the jet stream unnaturally northward and disrupt our weather</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Blaming humans and rising co2 for all the ills of the world and every natural weather change is a simplistic answer that corrupt politicians and alarmist scientists like Michael Mann push, and the click bait media thrives on. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIaHnIIUC-6HutOZX7j7IoT5xaLfYrBlDx0ClFljOwho9WIeURnBnD0zKmVXRbIK4gbAN4TEIeFlBS2n-fPpWqItTRvFLprTAU3FZkRx3F_EzLATnbpYCEngESz-_4krusyU5DDh4yqO_qNhuAbDz68NSmHUh5hzPnWqM4cBqKwHFDGbvzgUL8iMcs2g/s1710/people%20cliff%20simple%20but%20wrong.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="1710" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIaHnIIUC-6HutOZX7j7IoT5xaLfYrBlDx0ClFljOwho9WIeURnBnD0zKmVXRbIK4gbAN4TEIeFlBS2n-fPpWqItTRvFLprTAU3FZkRx3F_EzLATnbpYCEngESz-_4krusyU5DDh4yqO_qNhuAbDz68NSmHUh5hzPnWqM4cBqKwHFDGbvzgUL8iMcs2g/w640-h210/people%20cliff%20simple%20but%20wrong.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Such simple narratives will only send a gullible public and public policy over a cliff. It obscures the complex climate interactions that so many other scientists have identified even though their work fails to capture media headlines. People who truly want to understand the science, they need to understand the natural complexities of climate change so we can enact the best policies</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So up next: part 3 of the big 5 natural causes of climate change: La Nina and the Warming Ocean</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Until then.... Embrace renowned scientist Thomas Huxley's advice:
Skepticism is our highest duty and blind faith the one unpardonable sin</span></p>
<p></p>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-893772711678017382022-04-24T23:46:00.014-07:002022-04-25T00:02:44.216-07:00The Big 5 Natural Causes of Global Warming - part 1: Varying Atlantic Water Transport<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This is the transcript for the video </span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQbSplM6o9Y</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQbSplM6o9Y" target="_blank">The Big 5 Natural Causes of Global Warming - part 1: Varying Atlantic Water Transport</a></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy9Spd7cd6a1i8hY1M5Q9cXlcLCHYt9xLwBHtJkHI46dWMS0C8dGoszboLou1Pe8mDkUbgq9RTF188aBjy5ZB5phZL3qvY_SJjA44mp9veXa7t-qau1cldKtdyTlGOuic8GVhBrXiKXRl5BHhxxYouhuD4ZO2KpPAzUQhhcLCSpbsIU9TcuVqKzpsziw/s762/arctic%20%20water%20currents.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="762" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhy9Spd7cd6a1i8hY1M5Q9cXlcLCHYt9xLwBHtJkHI46dWMS0C8dGoszboLou1Pe8mDkUbgq9RTF188aBjy5ZB5phZL3qvY_SJjA44mp9veXa7t-qau1cldKtdyTlGOuic8GVhBrXiKXRl5BHhxxYouhuD4ZO2KpPAzUQhhcLCSpbsIU9TcuVqKzpsziw/w640-h414/arctic%20%20water%20currents.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">I previously discussed how CO2 has maintained today’s hospitable climate in the video titled, “How CO2 Saves The Earth: Greenhouse Gases Vital Warming & Cooling Effects”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGPbIsCXLTO_bOhCQCfdtOWIDrA_6kDHqOODllE9yYRs-QwqUlqbFiyCu8TVKH-T8SBUjs0lzeRvGRW632I_d1gSywQFolaKbcfsWEFmMKMbnfM4k-rGUJ1FbZUp-jqx3YPVMI48QUIFauVbNkMOdo8lrsuGEcVL_sgEsS6m1mPsU9TsuiCKsCQrEXDg/s943/Stephens_2012.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="456" data-original-width="943" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGPbIsCXLTO_bOhCQCfdtOWIDrA_6kDHqOODllE9yYRs-QwqUlqbFiyCu8TVKH-T8SBUjs0lzeRvGRW632I_d1gSywQFolaKbcfsWEFmMKMbnfM4k-rGUJ1FbZUp-jqx3YPVMI48QUIFauVbNkMOdo8lrsuGEcVL_sgEsS6m1mPsU9TsuiCKsCQrEXDg/w640-h310/Stephens_2012.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But as our lower atmosphere saturates with CO2, additional CO2 has much less of an effect today. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Big 5 natural climate dynamics - when considered together- offer a far better explanation of both regional climate trends and the statistical global warming trend since the end of the little ice age. The first of the Big 5 identifies the effect of varying transport of warm Atlantic waters into the Arctic. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Jonathan Kahl’s analysis of Arctic surveys between 1950 and 1990 & published in the pre-eminent journal Nature, found no rise in arctic air temperatures. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH3zxet8TbxF8IsuqEPqAKbEo0O1CnBMt0lijA5IBzVkxNEHLdDv3Yjh7OUt52DBcvv5tFqwwuiGuhSVeUi1AKNpMty8oPrlbH97F4VUL85dpBgRtn1YY-kYl19xghCfxR-NgGMlSDqRlkb_Af4LQ-WTP_sB_LvOcjdelDMZ3nhsLOSNeIw80QNn3QHA/s1414/Kahl's%20research%20paper.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="1414" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhH3zxet8TbxF8IsuqEPqAKbEo0O1CnBMt0lijA5IBzVkxNEHLdDv3Yjh7OUt52DBcvv5tFqwwuiGuhSVeUi1AKNpMty8oPrlbH97F4VUL85dpBgRtn1YY-kYl19xghCfxR-NgGMlSDqRlkb_Af4LQ-WTP_sB_LvOcjdelDMZ3nhsLOSNeIw80QNn3QHA/w640-h238/Kahl's%20research%20paper.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But after the 1990 shift of the Arctic Oscillation, which caused sub-freezing winds from Siberia to blow insulating arctic sea ice out of the Arctic, arctic air temperatures suddenly began warming several times faster than the global average temperature.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsvmDaQb6Fwdw8ojt8TqgJ0IaC_HGGVwdeU0p5Q-UCYbTT-e2umBCzznZxeFyGXEOin46qVzRxAZx3W7Y4oKjd3TYFmuL2oEwwpa0QQ7T_Qf9KpMSOAyXw-5t0aiKuc-k56DSDW1WBreUFPt9-dByJBQe6Es_MAKnQ4VmaqfypPZxqUhZ50qGkvqJXqQ/s3240/cohen%202014%20warm%20arctic%20cool%20usa.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1164" data-original-width="3240" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsvmDaQb6Fwdw8ojt8TqgJ0IaC_HGGVwdeU0p5Q-UCYbTT-e2umBCzznZxeFyGXEOin46qVzRxAZx3W7Y4oKjd3TYFmuL2oEwwpa0QQ7T_Qf9KpMSOAyXw-5t0aiKuc-k56DSDW1WBreUFPt9-dByJBQe6Es_MAKnQ4VmaqfypPZxqUhZ50qGkvqJXqQ/w640-h230/cohen%202014%20warm%20arctic%20cool%20usa.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />The loss of insulating sea ice increased the ventilation of stored ocean heat, warming the air but cooling the ocean. That warming offset and obscured, the 25-year winter cooling trend in both North America and Eurasia, represented here by the blue colors. Clearly Arctic warming was due regional climate dynamics, not global. </span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">From Danish sea ice records and modern satellite photos, we see two distinct periods with very similar reductions in the extent of arctic sea ice. One during the 1930s and one since 2000. Those 2 periods of reduced sea ice are separated by an intervening 30-year period of increasing sea ice, suggesting sea ice is modulated by a natural oscillation. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7uzjLdGtU-VH8RhMkKz10U84raSskSSjJKTcmqzTDLLknFAAo6kQ3lGgKqq5QufGkFlFhH8Dpyi1Xva1NEB5SrtRBglcePD58JxgFLTL33N69wdyV93X_NeAW8OoaBEBk9Pu17EsCoildN2ipAF5v88V2HcrOOjkCjtmHUQOT6R3VsIbzy-H1gFlHww/s1684/danish%20&%20modern%20sea%20ice%20reduction.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="922" data-original-width="1684" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7uzjLdGtU-VH8RhMkKz10U84raSskSSjJKTcmqzTDLLknFAAo6kQ3lGgKqq5QufGkFlFhH8Dpyi1Xva1NEB5SrtRBglcePD58JxgFLTL33N69wdyV93X_NeAW8OoaBEBk9Pu17EsCoildN2ipAF5v88V2HcrOOjkCjtmHUQOT6R3VsIbzy-H1gFlHww/w640-h350/danish%20&%20modern%20sea%20ice%20reduction.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation represents a natural cyclical dynamic where the northern Atlantic waters alternate between becoming warmer than the southern Atlantic and then become cooler. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It cycles approximately every 60 years. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiri_38HTpK0eqriXUFFeGFEN2TJWic_NyJjsAJM7fdoodaRZ6GcZRTCBuDZPOJAyM9iZ1srursTFtY0HErOpmMBerZRIYrm9Kr5qrQPOiNbFM6DZAfK6exGs108vLVQQk0SX1l-V64T_jRIjMNNbxA6xtjY6dYLk4B3rJUGpI2tW5IQErDf9GjzIc3Ew/s3092/AMO%20warm%20north%20.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1351" data-original-width="3092" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiri_38HTpK0eqriXUFFeGFEN2TJWic_NyJjsAJM7fdoodaRZ6GcZRTCBuDZPOJAyM9iZ1srursTFtY0HErOpmMBerZRIYrm9Kr5qrQPOiNbFM6DZAfK6exGs108vLVQQk0SX1l-V64T_jRIjMNNbxA6xtjY6dYLk4B3rJUGpI2tW5IQErDf9GjzIc3Ew/w640-h280/AMO%20warm%20north%20.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsakj29eU9fdGdbgkZcwFZ6Y31bZ7lwjpZjziI5hs9EkScNVVBqYaIwTYcJAfOiOKT4okulhrAVsWq6K9VtIYFSQPv35a7-i9HongHBPleRt03cLuU2_T1wejvCVqMkiGN9PkNxHJ1vteKRlYbH8NKW6IX-yCKnwHqlRCUzyzRsRInV3g7Q0IbT7dytw/s1172/AMO%20%20alternating%20trends.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="1172" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsakj29eU9fdGdbgkZcwFZ6Y31bZ7lwjpZjziI5hs9EkScNVVBqYaIwTYcJAfOiOKT4okulhrAVsWq6K9VtIYFSQPv35a7-i9HongHBPleRt03cLuU2_T1wejvCVqMkiGN9PkNxHJ1vteKRlYbH8NKW6IX-yCKnwHqlRCUzyzRsRInV3g7Q0IbT7dytw/w640-h248/AMO%20%20alternating%20trends.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The decades with 0.3 to 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer north Atlantic waters coincide with the decades of reduced Arctic sea ice and rising global temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The decades between the 1950s to 1990s, when the north Atlantic's temperatures were 0.3 to 0.5 degrees Celsius cooler, Arctic sea ice increased and there was no global warming trend. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As climate scientist Moreno-Chammaro published in 2020, these alternating periods of warmer and cooler north Atlantic temperatures also correlated with changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdn4HH3z7eKjAA7cnL9F1J6QaA4Cu5XjOlI0TEkdhJQFY4aqcpZ9S1T8K0vbb1icui--8v-xAikUNxETBWJhqGsSiGl2ekPo36Ecx-p1VuHqXmcyElrvWIWov5tc4pUTvqk9QYF18nJ44b5CDpqaog45fybczVD-SjyApcY-KKP36JohTceh8rf3on0w/s1072/itcz.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="554" data-original-width="1072" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdn4HH3z7eKjAA7cnL9F1J6QaA4Cu5XjOlI0TEkdhJQFY4aqcpZ9S1T8K0vbb1icui--8v-xAikUNxETBWJhqGsSiGl2ekPo36Ecx-p1VuHqXmcyElrvWIWov5tc4pUTvqk9QYF18nJ44b5CDpqaog45fybczVD-SjyApcY-KKP36JohTceh8rf3on0w/w640-h330/itcz.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The ITCZ is a migrating band of rising air, that sailors called the doldrums, which also brings heavy rainfall. Over Asia and Africa the ITCZ follows the sun to the Tropic of Cancer or Tropic of Capricorn according to each hemisphere's summer solstice. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The ITCZ is also the driver of the earth's Hadley Circulation that constantly transports warmth and moisture from the tropics towards the poles. </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAxgH3KUilWvLEKyjQaxRtoq-Jna1JTgP7Z1q9qV8Y_F_Iw1EV1I_03Vhctek3eGQEx8TIW8sjCMxEWCTt9XKTDKXKHLEVq1EZSNxSM6aozzlMRGbYRC-KxBBK4bYJ3WNTPnmNWqEMREdN8MBxijk-J6OqwzPiKBxuGFY2vwDO32AXG2Ow1rigYmorbA/s4024/hadley%20high%20and%20low%20pressuree%20emphasis.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1911" data-original-width="4024" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAxgH3KUilWvLEKyjQaxRtoq-Jna1JTgP7Z1q9qV8Y_F_Iw1EV1I_03Vhctek3eGQEx8TIW8sjCMxEWCTt9XKTDKXKHLEVq1EZSNxSM6aozzlMRGbYRC-KxBBK4bYJ3WNTPnmNWqEMREdN8MBxijk-J6OqwzPiKBxuGFY2vwDO32AXG2Ow1rigYmorbA/w640-h304/hadley%20high%20and%20low%20pressuree%20emphasis.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Where the north and south trade winds converge defines the ITCZ’s position, and determines where the rising branch of moist air of the Hadley Circulation will create a rainy season. Because the OTCZ determines the location of tropical rainy seasons, it leaves strong clues to how its location has changed over centuries and millennia. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Around 30 degrees north and south of the equator, the air moving towards the poles at the top of the atmosphere converges with upper atmospheric winds that are moving back toward the equator. This upper air convergence drives air currents downward to create a quasi-permanent high-pressure region at the surface. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Around 60 degrees north and south, the convergence of opposing surface air currents drives air upwards producing a quasi-permanent low pressure region. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As the ITCZ migrates north and south, so do these inter-connected high and low pressure systems</span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCPWaqoq0tWee1iAdgPLbSsRs_jJoq2NGXHAcJipNbXMBtCBZPvOzMMiW1Mv--huD5q0_eouYKMIxezDBDnbxjL6uOaOWZlqg7dEYFanRXw0BhRqsC9fMYv8V6kZdYB3lLSD7P0g3eNjSbFKP0enWj9d-mN5XuYDV22F2-n3QnJg-3PwngQ_6lezkphQ/s468/ITCZ%20north%20south%20equatorial%20currents.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCPWaqoq0tWee1iAdgPLbSsRs_jJoq2NGXHAcJipNbXMBtCBZPvOzMMiW1Mv--huD5q0_eouYKMIxezDBDnbxjL6uOaOWZlqg7dEYFanRXw0BhRqsC9fMYv8V6kZdYB3lLSD7P0g3eNjSbFKP0enWj9d-mN5XuYDV22F2-n3QnJg-3PwngQ_6lezkphQ/w640-h360/ITCZ%20north%20south%20equatorial%20currents.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As illustrated by Zou's 2014 research, during the Little Ice Age as the ITCZ migrated southward, so did its associated pressure systems. Its more southerly location caused warm equatorial currents to be deflected southward by the point of Brazil. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The southward migration of the associated north Atlantic pressure systems also steered warm gulf stream waters more eastward, reducing warm water flows into the Arctic, resulting in cooler temperatures that enabled the greatest Arctic sea ice buildup in 6000 years. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">When solar irradiance increased, marking the end of the Little Ice Age, the ITCZ and associated pressure systems all migrated northward. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHeJm2PAdlbBs1zvWVhOt25Fl5kqtmeC7SD_-t7DW9tEjOxSAdfYYBT0nveSwleZ8PH9P0Tkrqwezx0YHBVtEw6Oa7YoqCgy6ZMRiiU_3x9XWUEPYL3m-SXuSkP2WuIGjnvoh0yzQbVyAdCbWmoWDAv50X0ezyhsxR_UWg22Pe8jQO1KRrbfUicsab5Q/s3726/solar%20minimuum%20itcz.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1961" data-original-width="3726" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHeJm2PAdlbBs1zvWVhOt25Fl5kqtmeC7SD_-t7DW9tEjOxSAdfYYBT0nveSwleZ8PH9P0Tkrqwezx0YHBVtEw6Oa7YoqCgy6ZMRiiU_3x9XWUEPYL3m-SXuSkP2WuIGjnvoh0yzQbVyAdCbWmoWDAv50X0ezyhsxR_UWg22Pe8jQO1KRrbfUicsab5Q/w640-h336/solar%20minimuum%20itcz.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Now, the more northerly location of the ITCZ guided more warm tropical waters north of the point of Brazil causing more warm water to flow across the equator and feed more warm water into the gulf stream. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Additionally, the northward shifting north Atlantic pressure systems increasingly drove more warm gulf stream waters into the Arctic, which reduced arctic sea ice. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Changes in solar irradiance and sunspot cycles correlate with that migration of the ITCZ. Three sunspot minimums and reduced solar irradiance occurred during the Little Ice Age and correlates with the ITCZ southward migration( illustrated here in blue). </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The increasing solar irradiance since the end of the little ice age correlates with the northward migrating ITCZ and our current warming trend. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUzGOmUWmcolIQqTkXe8br7vUu_D6K2tln9UgBirG1TjYtcaYKssIOX2WJjytkNNLkfsbRDWtbjcquhCQfsOu8s30rn5K3EptP28wYRYtqKSXuxNahmvPJKJ61dQ8Z-WEkDoZDTEoMwaiUy1LNt5L7FnJG0ggECPsijN1B6_mWEkBsEeeDJ5AeV55qA/s762/arctic%20%20water%20currents.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="762" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUzGOmUWmcolIQqTkXe8br7vUu_D6K2tln9UgBirG1TjYtcaYKssIOX2WJjytkNNLkfsbRDWtbjcquhCQfsOu8s30rn5K3EptP28wYRYtqKSXuxNahmvPJKJ61dQ8Z-WEkDoZDTEoMwaiUy1LNt5L7FnJG0ggECPsijN1B6_mWEkBsEeeDJ5AeV55qA/w640-h414/arctic%20%20water%20currents.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As the northward migration of the ITCZ resulted in more warm water entering the Arctic, that warm, inflowing Atlantic water circulates around the arctic for 25-30 years at 100 to 900 meter depths. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">That warm Atlantic water keeps most of the Barents Sea inside the Arctic Circle free of ice all winter</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And warm Atlantic waters circulating along the shallow Eurasian coasts combine with winds from Siberia to push sea ice away from the coast and maintain ice-free polynya during the winter with open waters that further expand during the summer. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu08033HXOpweJcxmmRviaoprfZFkEEZB8054EyhQjD9tUezd4N9uzvQfeNpl3AwbTZo5wfz-h8L4GJK8xN12beukmY26DqS57hAckH0jPNX9iBLQyXVoGDRbs0vIHohhOytnuC2Hv1hO8Jh1EpIdzNjBFHX-aOmw2DS0uwjDsCTUZTnpTHAIKsmscGQ/s1920/sea%20ice%20venting%20heatpng.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="1920" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu08033HXOpweJcxmmRviaoprfZFkEEZB8054EyhQjD9tUezd4N9uzvQfeNpl3AwbTZo5wfz-h8L4GJK8xN12beukmY26DqS57hAckH0jPNX9iBLQyXVoGDRbs0vIHohhOytnuC2Hv1hO8Jh1EpIdzNjBFHX-aOmw2DS0uwjDsCTUZTnpTHAIKsmscGQ/w640-h170/sea%20ice%20venting%20heatpng.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The insulating effects of sea ice determines how quickly the arctic ocean will cool and how much heat ventilates and warms the Arctic air. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">According to peer-reviewed studies by Ignatius Rigor published in 2002,
3 meter-thick ice can ventilate 5 times more heat (about 10 W/m2) than radiated by society’s added CO2. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Where older ice is replaced by thinner 1-meter thick ice, about 15 times more heat than from CO2 (about 30 W/m2) can ventilate. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And newly forming thin ice can ventilate 350 times more heat than added CO2 (about 700 W/m2) </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It is this ventilating Arctic heat that has amplified Arctic and global air temperatures. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As illustrated here by NASA’s National Snow & Ice Data Center,
</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcmtSHYIRBm3qgc8wb_dLStg7-IlzVcSC8ejcE-qB1GwrC5ZCyFQLrPVTW4SjsAL-7ZcWp_t0S5hgb6u1nCF3g2NLE2FF0J3LRSYRyIE-PK-_e7qs6PrIq--LO_MH-ZZDW4f5qPDO8ssCkUv3LlK-qJSsaye3gzvCMApQxDn8XKNXEOVRbAaRol23VQg/s2992/arctic%20sea%20ice%20ages%201985%20-2017.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2351" data-original-width="2992" height="502" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcmtSHYIRBm3qgc8wb_dLStg7-IlzVcSC8ejcE-qB1GwrC5ZCyFQLrPVTW4SjsAL-7ZcWp_t0S5hgb6u1nCF3g2NLE2FF0J3LRSYRyIE-PK-_e7qs6PrIq--LO_MH-ZZDW4f5qPDO8ssCkUv3LlK-qJSsaye3gzvCMApQxDn8XKNXEOVRbAaRol23VQg/w640-h502/arctic%20sea%20ice%20ages%201985%20-2017.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In summer 1985, over one third of the Arctic ocean was covered by old 3+ meter thick ice (represented here in white) Abundant thick, insulating ice explains why Jonathan Kahl's 1993 analyses found no Arctic warming. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">After cold freezing winds began removing that thick ice in 1990, by 2017 less than 5% of the Arctic ocean was covered by old 3+ meter thick ice, and the amount of open water (in dark blue) more than tripled during summer allowing much more stored ocean heat to ventilate</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">To blame CO2 for the sudden loss of arctic sea ice, which all agreed was caused by the 1990s strong shift in wind direction during a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, 6 leading advocates of the CO2 warming theory, including NASA’s now chief climate modeler Gavin Schmidt, published in 2002 that rising CO2 was controlling the natural North Atlantic Oscillation, </span></p>
<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqrC8ZfNk098LPqe6yAIT2_0DKFTZ-9bP6SXtJaX5OJu6LdxnELrzHDL1siiOSFXVXqOFGWziDRvan-Qr9rnRafPCpBr8HiEKn18_ed8JkShDISMZ_xfi9tvneWqVUqCiyZwUus2dWHKvIyQGwfSQg4-Neif09ubeKIUcFL9CQ0fDsxp4n91t3YBR5cg/s2685/nao%20%20model%20and%20trends.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2213" data-original-width="2685" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqrC8ZfNk098LPqe6yAIT2_0DKFTZ-9bP6SXtJaX5OJu6LdxnELrzHDL1siiOSFXVXqOFGWziDRvan-Qr9rnRafPCpBr8HiEKn18_ed8JkShDISMZ_xfi9tvneWqVUqCiyZwUus2dWHKvIyQGwfSQg4-Neif09ubeKIUcFL9CQ0fDsxp4n91t3YBR5cg/w640-h528/nao%20%20model%20and%20trends.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">I quote
"four of the five general circulation models show an unambiguously positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation response to greenhouse gas forcing, consistent with the hypothesis [their hypothesis] that the observed upward trend in these indices is anthropogenically induced” </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But this illustrates how badly Gavin Schmidt's conclusions had been biased by his advocacy, such as his efforts on the so-called RealClimate website that he co-founded with Michael Mann, where he advocated for a hypothetical CO2 driven climate crisis. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In the real world, despite continued rising CO2 concentrations and despite Schmidt's unambiguous modeling results, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been doing the exact opposite. It has been trending more negatively for the past 2 decades. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Oddly, despite this utter modeling failure, Gavin Schmidt was awarded the position of NASA’s GISS director, replacing the prominent climate alarmist James Hansen. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTmr1AVfG12jAXnORWIXgm71bycL2Q7k0agyR9Q2dxBE5FwzrBbifYrJjYMcIF3W4PPIv5f79xBdtRsnhWqOWNSzEx5hLlz4_Ezz8_RBZcMWEtEdsfZOV0nGb1mX8LN0TnIE4Oydh71MErFviz7tSXWecMKbtnVtiz9XQzWevAh2JlEwrhKTnmJ0tq3w/s1929/heat%20arctic%20earth%20thermometer.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1929" data-original-width="1562" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTmr1AVfG12jAXnORWIXgm71bycL2Q7k0agyR9Q2dxBE5FwzrBbifYrJjYMcIF3W4PPIv5f79xBdtRsnhWqOWNSzEx5hLlz4_Ezz8_RBZcMWEtEdsfZOV0nGb1mX8LN0TnIE4Oydh71MErFviz7tSXWecMKbtnVtiz9XQzWevAh2JlEwrhKTnmJ0tq3w/w518-h640/heat%20arctic%20earth%20thermometer.png" width="518" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Changes in natural climate dynamics firmly disputes alarmists' claims of a rapidly approaching CO2 driven climate crisis. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
1. Increasing arctic temperatures are chiefly caused by ventilating stored heat that warms the air but cools the ocean. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
2. The lowest solar irradiance in 100 years (sunpsot cycle 24) suggests further cooling of the North Atlantic. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
3. Declining solar irradiance suggests a southward migrating ITCZ causing less northward transport of tropical heat. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
4. The coinciding shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation further suggests cooler north Atlantic waters entering the Arctic in coming decades, and that would predict that as older Atlantic water circulating in the Arctic for 30 years finally cools, conditions would allow Arctic sea ice to recover. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
5. Finally because most climate models and leading climate scientists incorrectly attributed rising CO2 to the North Atlantic Oscillation's shift to its positive phase, their alarmist crisis claims should be viewed with a great amount of skepticism. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So I urge you to consider the effects of natural climate dynamics, and this is just the first of the Big 5 that better explains our current warming trends. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So up next: # 2 of the Big 5 climate dynamics: How shifting jet streams affect global temperatures. </span></p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-1870614261188805982022-04-15T16:24:00.000-07:002022-04-15T16:24:36.914-07:00National Geographic’s Misinformation about Forests and Climate Change<p> </p>
<p> National Geographic is at it again! Five years ago, National Geographic published a story and a video of a sickly emaciated polar bear that they fearmongered was the result of climate change. After heavy criticism they admitted they didn’t really know what had affected the bear and, in their attempt to raise “concern” about climate change had gone too when stating "this is what climate change looks like." But that’s how click-bait journalism profits.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17pORykoW091_gxz3hRfumiZTEucQva7z-ExNg1VKoOMlw3ODNJttvRvXfx-DGYYhYj5DCNOXAEcuUautF0xtmtgN1rG4gpjbgrhjSOoRZk53Ahhm6fNNVWU30kwftIZgfHRHJ-2fZToK9FNUernwz0nDsWY2fAYXasy9BCdh9VkIxgvxQE3xZJ4RPQ/s546/SICK%20POLAR%20BEAR.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="362" data-original-width="546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17pORykoW091_gxz3hRfumiZTEucQva7z-ExNg1VKoOMlw3ODNJttvRvXfx-DGYYhYj5DCNOXAEcuUautF0xtmtgN1rG4gpjbgrhjSOoRZk53Ahhm6fNNVWU30kwftIZgfHRHJ-2fZToK9FNUernwz0nDsWY2fAYXasy9BCdh9VkIxgvxQE3xZJ4RPQ/s600/SICK%20POLAR%20BEAR.jpg" width="600" /></a></div>
<p>Now, they have assembled cherry-picked photos of dying forests that they also blame on climate change to craft a propaganda article “<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/forests-future-threatened-heat-drought-feature?rid=4F4FC588DBFFD2FA7942E4CE1D38691C&cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_Forests_20220414">The FUTURE OF FORESTS</a>” with the headlines “HEAT AND DROUGHT ARE KILLING OUR FORESTS…BUT WE CAN LIMIT THE DAMAGE… IF WE CHANGE COURSE NOW.”</p>
<p>Although the article admits “Trees are growing faster” due to rising CO2, and in passing also acknowledged “climate change still poses less of a threat to forests than logging and land clearing”, their intent was to sell fear that “the climate threat is growing fast.” To make the reader believe their hyperbole, they paraded a myriad of unsupported claims that “climate change is killing trees.” That, “forest scientists are increasingly uneasy in the quickening pulse of extreme events—fire, more powerful storms, insect infestations, and, most notably, severe heat and drought.” Throughout the article, National Geographic sprinkles in truth but then hammers their readers with climate change misinformation.</p>
<p>National Geographic mindlessly blamed catastrophic wildfires on climate change-worsened drought, despite all the scientific evidence pointing to the build-up of forest fuels due to poor landscape management. In 2002-2004 some 350 million piñons, New Mexico’s state tree, died across the Southwest due to drought and fire. To National Geographic’s credit they reported on the wildfire in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico that “From 1650 on, this ponderosa pine forest survived 15 fires—but in the 20th century most fires were suppressed. Fuel built up in the forest and a long, hot drought settled in. A monster blaze in 2011 ravaged 45 square miles in its first night.” “Unprecedented fires eviscerated hundreds of thousands of acres of ponderosa pines.”</p>
<p>But then the bait and switch to fearmonger climate change. They claimed, “the drought was hotter”. “The slight increase in temperature attributable to greenhouse gas emissions was already enough to set the death of New Mexico’s trees in motion.”
But it was not a hotter drought. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) combines changes in both rainfall and temperature to estimate drought severity. According to data from NOAA and published on the <a href="https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2019/chapter/new-mexico/figure/new-mexico-palmer-drought-severity-index-nm">GlobalChange.gov</a> website, the PDSI for current drought conditions in New Mexico are now milder than they had been during Little Ice Age droughts, between 1200 and 1800 AD. (Red represents instrumental data and blue represents reconstructed data from tree rings.)</p>
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<p>Likewise, PDSI data for neighboring Utah and Colorado data indicate the western United States is experiencing milder drought conditions than the last 1000 years, as well as similar change in the south-eastern USA.</p>
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<p>Nonetheless, eager to add more threatening effects from increased heat and droughts attributed to climate change, National Geographic focused on recent wildfires in Yellowstone claiming, “Yellowstone is part of a global trend”. They reported trees were not returning after fires in the region, quoting one researcher that in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Washington, the number of burned sites that didn’t recover jumped from 19 percent before 2000 to 32 percent in the years after. But again, the data does not point to climate change as the cause. </p>
<p>From estimates for the Northern Rockies and Plains (MT, ND, SD, WY, and NE) the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for July from 1895–2020, finds the upper Missouri River Basin has been wetter in the recent 15 years while the worst droughts were in the 1930s. That PDSI also correlates with the EPA’s Heatwave Index, showing the worst heatwaves in the 1930s, far exceeding any excessive heat in recent decades.</p>
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<p>National Geographic’s misinformation was most repulsive when dramatizing the fires in California’s Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park. “If any species could withstand climate shifts, you might think it’d be giant sequoias, many of which have stood since the reign of Julius Caesar. Instead, change has come frighteningly fast.” National Geographic then sprinkles in a little truth stating, “Sequoias need low-intensity ground fires to release seeds from their cones and clear soil, so seeds can take root. Their high branches make them unlikely hosts for canopy fires. But in 2020 our history of suppressing fire collided with a rapidly changing climate.” However, again, the PDSI shows California’s drought severity has been milder the last 100 years. Suppressing the frequent moderate fires that had maintained a sequoia-favorable environment for thousands of years was the problem.</p>
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<p>According to the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/seki/learn/nature/giant-sequoias-and-fire.htm">National Park Service</a>, the 2020 Castle fire “burned 12 giant sequoia groves in the park, with differing levels of fire severity depending on their fire history and location. Groves on warmer and drier south-facing slopes, <b>and</b> with <b>no recent fire</b>, sustained extensive mortality of large giant sequoias,” such as Homer's Nose grove, shown here. Notice the dense forest consisting of thinner trees that had encroached on the thicker sequoia giants due to fire suppression, providing ladder fuels to reach the sequoia’s canopies. National Geographic featured a similar photo to emphasize “Climate change and fire suppression are fueling bigger wildfires.”</p>
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<p>Unlike the National Park Service, National Geographic didn’t show photos of how better forest fuel management had protected the sequoias. The NPS reported, “Other groves, growing on cooler, more moist north-facing slopes or having <b>recent history of fire</b> had more mixed and moderate fire severity or limited fire spread. One example is this healthy Garfield Grove (below), where managers did a <b>prescribed burn in 198</b>5” to mimic the natural fire frequency of the past. (<i>Photo: NPS / Anthony Caprio (taken on a November 2, 2020 aerial survey by helicopter</i>)</p>
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<p>National Geographic similarly blamed several other forest declines around the globe on climate change despite knowingly never understanding their real causes. National Geographic reported scientists confessing, “The problem is, we can’t yet quantify the planetwide scope of climate impacts. Satellite data show that Earth’s tree-covered area actually expanded from 1982 to 2016 by 7 percent, an area larger than Mexico. But that doesn’t mean forests are doing fine: The data don’t distinguish between natural forests and industrial tree farms.” “No computer model can yet project how climate will change forests globally—or how their carbon stores will feed back on climate. Earth system models historically haven’t done a good job of capturing this.”</p>
<p>Clearly National Geographic’s authors never really understood forestry or climate history. They were once again just pushing a click-bait piece blaming climate change, “Now fossil fuel emissions spewing from coal plants and tailpipes are rearranging forests in other consequential ways,” concluding with, “Do we want even more of this?” “Stabilizing emissions closer to two degrees or less could limit forest losses in Yellowstone to 15 percent.” “Yellowstone’s forests, like many in the world, will never be the same. But they might be close”</p>
<p>Jim Steele is Director emeritus of San Francisco State University’s Sierra Nevada Field Campus, authored Landscapes and Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism and several <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7XNHEz2QCJ_Phf2mvDFk0Q/videos">climate science videos</a> and is a proud member of the CO2 Coalition.</p>
Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-29712802179855336122022-03-12T16:40:00.005-08:002023-04-09T08:55:06.796-07:00SEPARATING SCIENCE FROM PSEUDOSCIENCE FOR FLOODS AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> This is the transcript for the video</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ8tYvyye64" target="_blank">SEPARATING SCIENCE FROM PSEUDOSCIENCE FOR FLOODS AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION</a></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #065fd4; white-space: nowrap;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ8tYvyye64</span></div></span><p></p><p style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgb1AhcVpWmzqz7gbhG1M91i4L_dxmU6M_qL1KLSjKGS2BaVVEQgOLZaUKSnCDe_N3MCp97smp9M9vZBRA4bRnNkSNgYvtgl_pS2fv_1Um9LUvWX_S5k71sYpDSR-ay_swwnHe7Zg3d4aF8l8MW11JQHsJByqYbuQE_3VCASrCdQz8JHwvSdAv7P2mbIg=s1230" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="1230" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgb1AhcVpWmzqz7gbhG1M91i4L_dxmU6M_qL1KLSjKGS2BaVVEQgOLZaUKSnCDe_N3MCp97smp9M9vZBRA4bRnNkSNgYvtgl_pS2fv_1Um9LUvWX_S5k71sYpDSR-ay_swwnHe7Zg3d4aF8l8MW11JQHsJByqYbuQE_3VCASrCdQz8JHwvSdAv7P2mbIg=w640-h396" width="640" /></span></a><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia;">
Welcome everyone.
</span><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWI4S30LzlH_SJQ7xgKcToCnGH3nWQVS543gHCD8lAy4To0kTVLK_gvu6eQ67HBP8X5MfX0JRCpppNGUNeIb4UnYR270QWYZKg6jUKAcQhXfgPcok_JkwtXK-4KzVwvH8Kw3YeiRMgOTFfMVC964kOyPLqZSQ4-QP54G9HQBZZRK2Og52jANqty_3Zxg=s1648" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="1648" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWI4S30LzlH_SJQ7xgKcToCnGH3nWQVS543gHCD8lAy4To0kTVLK_gvu6eQ67HBP8X5MfX0JRCpppNGUNeIb4UnYR270QWYZKg6jUKAcQhXfgPcok_JkwtXK-4KzVwvH8Kw3YeiRMgOTFfMVC964kOyPLqZSQ4-QP54G9HQBZZRK2Og52jANqty_3Zxg=w640-h278" width="640" /></span></a><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span></p><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This video separates science from the pseudo-science regards floods and extreme precipitation in part 7 of How Pressure Systems Control Climate.
Floods are the most frequent of all natural disasters. The deadliest of all recorded floods devastated regions of China in cooler times of the late 1800s and 1930s. But the visible heartache of floods today makes them lucrative click-bait for mainstream media and good optics to push a climate crisis.
For example, last year National Public Radio promoted pseudo-science in order to frame floods as a new existential threat</span><span style="font-family: georgia;">.</span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Level ground, rich soils and easy access to water have enticed people to colonize flood plains for millennia, despite the risk of inevitable catastrophic floods.
Building levees was one solution. But by denying a river access to its natural floodplains, levees amplified downstream flows only to re-locate flooding. This video won’t delve into the effects of human levee systems, here I focus on the latest science to establish how much flooding can be expected from natural climate variability.
Due to the inevitable natural frequency of floods, by 1920 private insurance companies in America stopped offering flood insurance. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEsHxz6sS5IW6vnbpwrh5lXizYreD4NFOUzABtiX057WJPys9QUzdIQgYfzD4pfSyVZHneTzaq_eFY2YM4czk8STVFq3uovJq08v-2BTey4FK-SsnuwO8JbtMCZ3fZ5Rcj1J0lJG_1AkHbHNetQKF4ez9uQFgGJ_CjCaWSCuKUj5k8Y40e2Qv3E4R19A=s1406" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="708" data-original-width="1406" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEsHxz6sS5IW6vnbpwrh5lXizYreD4NFOUzABtiX057WJPys9QUzdIQgYfzD4pfSyVZHneTzaq_eFY2YM4czk8STVFq3uovJq08v-2BTey4FK-SsnuwO8JbtMCZ3fZ5Rcj1J0lJG_1AkHbHNetQKF4ez9uQFgGJ_CjCaWSCuKUj5k8Y40e2Qv3E4R19A=w640-h322" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Unwisely, governments then offered flood insurance that has unintentionally encouraged people to stay on the flood plains, no matter how often they needed to rebuild, and no matter how much wetland ecosystems are lost.
As seen here, Florida’s St John’s River lost over 90% of its floodplains to encroaching humanity in 70 years. But observing the environmental damage there are now ongoing efforts to restore as much wetlands as possible. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">With the advent of the satellite era, scientists have been able to construct a much more accurate picture</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"> of the earth's precipitation patterns and flood risks from climate change. </span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Kevin Trenberth, from the national center for atmospheric research, is an outspoken scientist who has promoted much pseudo-science regards floods, and unfortunately, he's usually the first scientist mainstream media interviews in search of a climate crisis headline. </span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">He generates pseudo-science by mis-applying the proven Clausius-Clayperon equation, which states a 1-degree Celsius rise in temperature increases the atmosphere's moisture holding capacity by 7%, arguing theoretically that global warming must be increasing rainfall and making floods worse. But while the Clausius-Clayperon equation is verifiable in a laboratory setting. It doesn’t explain global precipitation patterns. </span></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDe-wNp57HlInynkzvCL1mB-ZboxDXOVXmRHLomDcSyVgFI3wZoyV-2JpsR8ADCeBzEZ_9RqRtzGM0PnJmZUG61oClGvOVz-mKq3y2ptTzuFK0UvDJnxwJgJ-IkufmriikmoScIQux2p3dRSr-5kbeRhP2zxWHFkMlcGtUjxpGc8y-qUW1YCQK5Ak-xg=s1452" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="572" data-original-width="1452" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDe-wNp57HlInynkzvCL1mB-ZboxDXOVXmRHLomDcSyVgFI3wZoyV-2JpsR8ADCeBzEZ_9RqRtzGM0PnJmZUG61oClGvOVz-mKq3y2ptTzuFK0UvDJnxwJgJ-IkufmriikmoScIQux2p3dRSr-5kbeRhP2zxWHFkMlcGtUjxpGc8y-qUW1YCQK5Ak-xg=w640-h252" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Nguyen's 2018 satellite-based examination of precipitation shows the average rates of regional precipitation around the globe.
The Trade Winds carry moisture evaporated from the relatively cloudless regions represented here in dark blue and concentrate that moisture in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ. The ITCZ is represented here by the darker red colors circumscribing the equator. The ITCZ accounts for about 32% of all global rainfall and the importance of a shifting ITCZ on wet and dry climates was discussed in earlier parts of this series.
If global warming has increased evaporation, then the ITCZ would be one of the most sensitive regions to support Trenberth’s proclamations that global warming is causing a climate crisis and more extreme rainfall. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Western Pacific Warm Pool is the largest ITCZ region of heavy rainfall, yet in the heart of the warm pool, Indonesia’s elevation differences illustrate how interactions with cold temperatures greatly affect the degree of rainfall.
In Indonesia’s lowlands receive 70 to 125 inches of rain fall while Indonesia’s higher and cooler elevations, 2 to 3 times as much rain fall. </span></span></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Clearly illustrated here warmer temperatures simply don’t translate to more rainfall, over the Sahara Desert where maximum temperatures average 40 degrees Celsius or 104 Fahrenheit, there is only enough moisture to produce 3 inches of rain each year.
In contrast, Dublin Ireland receives over 10 times that amount of rainfall despite a much lower average high temperature of just 15 degrees Celsius or 59 Fahrenheit. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Clearly atmospheric circulation can trump the Clausius-Clayperon temperature equation. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1HVOfGu4VhK99amB8kJG_l4A-qOFX1diVOxpUe_u2S5GaW8-oWhNfHNree7newvZUahFTkgDTVWd9MVrlqpYWR9BJyJYFnT0HL11gI7bqNVgqGIsKjwc5JGRe64v1ldJMju6VqtAImPAwYhm6-DdMjL6DEtBRsmbSG8dgrRUoS6mPDR5WGh7R4RkZhA=s1032" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="458" data-original-width="1032" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1HVOfGu4VhK99amB8kJG_l4A-qOFX1diVOxpUe_u2S5GaW8-oWhNfHNree7newvZUahFTkgDTVWd9MVrlqpYWR9BJyJYFnT0HL11gI7bqNVgqGIsKjwc5JGRe64v1ldJMju6VqtAImPAwYhm6-DdMjL6DEtBRsmbSG8dgrRUoS6mPDR5WGh7R4RkZhA=w640-h284" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Using 33 years of NOAA’S satellite data, Nguyen 2018 also mapped the world's trends in precipitation. Revealing a vast mosaic of increasing and decreasing trends that defies Trenberth’s pseudo-science.
The blue areas represent increasing rainfall trends of which only 2.3% of the earth experiences any statistically significant increasing trend.
Regions of decreasing precipitation are illustrated by red colors, and cover half the earth, but significant drying covers twice the area of significantly increasing precipitation.
To see more clearly where statistically significant changes are happening, Nguyen 2018 produces this map. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMSwI0l4YPw98W3AWo78UmB1Gz-EB3MsQs1eaUHB2bREjqqfNb0_nUrZ1zxqTqyxktqsdCfKkog9bW0eAXHrPxUm7_KasYhDLY2UiwnEAfOakBBgczWwjeyC-6nuHCKOP1IgpVHDgzRak96gsVt5jCTMmdE6fGjfrAmIjWIjFXaE--VioPLER3pJXv1g=s1032" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="1032" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMSwI0l4YPw98W3AWo78UmB1Gz-EB3MsQs1eaUHB2bREjqqfNb0_nUrZ1zxqTqyxktqsdCfKkog9bW0eAXHrPxUm7_KasYhDLY2UiwnEAfOakBBgczWwjeyC-6nuHCKOP1IgpVHDgzRak96gsVt5jCTMmdE6fGjfrAmIjWIjFXaE--VioPLER3pJXv1g=w640-h254" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And contrary to Trenberth’s claim that global warming will cause convergence zones of moisture to exhibit increased precipitation, over 95% of the ITCZ region has shown no significant change in 30 years casting serious doubt on the usefulness of either the Clausius-Clayperon equation or global warming average statistic.
Likewise, over the USA where extreme precipitation events and floods are quite common,
there has been no significantly increasing rainfall. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMFA7DrC85-JIuNoKb1ptLAt5vVadJPloNITU3zJYuqHyIb2BJJUfhE8XCNIUhufCdza9ZmFAm0BHXinKsvdx0uiR83GtIyU-fUxTdm0XiEJEOo70wjjuYHJfEZE84foIz6vjuKOx_s8lWAqHSh6hgI0Ouw8Dty0wRrQyDUUl2Uobs3oB-ynuDMKNBCw=s2947" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1925" data-original-width="2947" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjMFA7DrC85-JIuNoKb1ptLAt5vVadJPloNITU3zJYuqHyIb2BJJUfhE8XCNIUhufCdza9ZmFAm0BHXinKsvdx0uiR83GtIyU-fUxTdm0XiEJEOo70wjjuYHJfEZE84foIz6vjuKOx_s8lWAqHSh6hgI0Ouw8Dty0wRrQyDUUl2Uobs3oB-ynuDMKNBCw=w640-h418" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In 2011, Michael Dettinger a hydrologist with the US Geological Survey and a Scripps researcher, published this illustration showing the location of weather stations reporting extreme rainfall of 400 mm or 15.8 inches or more of rainfall over 3-day periods spanning the years 1950 to 2008. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">It is well known that most extreme rainfall is largely associated with hurricanes and atmospheric rivers. Accordingly extreme rainfall is observed along the Gulf coast and eastern coast of the USA during the warm months, when and where hurricanes are most impactful. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Purple dots represent weather stations that have recorded one extreme event in the past 60 years while the blue dots represent locations observing 2 or three extreme events during that time span. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Atmospheric rivers deliver the extreme rainfall events in California happening mostly during the cooler months of late fall, winter, and early spring. There, a few weather stations have recorded extreme precipitation 6 and 7 times in 60 years. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCSdu_kY3Z1SlTjq-AEfdkpK2HjQK8IsC5I8ftsmzQblFnkibdbkxVgHFfUNqaYrch8gHNRGVLGIOOusWfuLuaCN3VYSTg6Hzg7R-HTfyMmVHuqyo7weIqhWQ16cTbKl9gcz7XjiLJjGLI-rhMXIaALIESnY1LLfQFmpe4XbKELowd_4ShD0m7aQfYag=s918" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="918" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCSdu_kY3Z1SlTjq-AEfdkpK2HjQK8IsC5I8ftsmzQblFnkibdbkxVgHFfUNqaYrch8gHNRGVLGIOOusWfuLuaCN3VYSTg6Hzg7R-HTfyMmVHuqyo7weIqhWQ16cTbKl9gcz7XjiLJjGLI-rhMXIaALIESnY1LLfQFmpe4XbKELowd_4ShD0m7aQfYag=w640-h440" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The water cycle helps illuminate the source of moisture for various extreme rainfall events.
85% of the earth's moisture evaporation occurs over the ocean, but only 90% of that moisture falls back harmlessly over the ocean. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The missing 40,000 cubic kilometers of moisture is transported from the oceans to the land each year, but it only accounts for 35% of all the rainfall on land.
That's because 65% of continental precipitation is fueled by recycled moisture via evaporation from lakes and wetlands and transpiration by vegetation. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyKqkn55C3eupjciARkS-sQvRupXipZpNJJoTPU_1FFPMGxcXa9WG4e9WZf6UuF02vFwLca1EjW_0YPBsWgCP69POPgUXlRlV-ARaCaeyrQw5YEUf4EcK63rNlHO069M-8SAHfZYycx9HZIrK2lsWd5negGw1anXov1_Yb0r1YVEQLEQ-V_WaigmFMvA=s958" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="958" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyKqkn55C3eupjciARkS-sQvRupXipZpNJJoTPU_1FFPMGxcXa9WG4e9WZf6UuF02vFwLca1EjW_0YPBsWgCP69POPgUXlRlV-ARaCaeyrQw5YEUf4EcK63rNlHO069M-8SAHfZYycx9HZIrK2lsWd5negGw1anXov1_Yb0r1YVEQLEQ-V_WaigmFMvA=w640-h422" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Because the eastern USA has more wetlands and more forests than the west, it recycles more rainfall,
During the warm months of June and July about 60% of the eastern USA’s rainfall is sourced from recycled moisture. So, the eastern USA should also be a sensitive indicator of any global warming induced evaporation and rainfall as suggested by Trenberth. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But in contrast to Trenberth’s theoretical pseudo-science, Nguyen’s 2018 analyses </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">show the eastern USA has not experienced any precipitation trends in 30 years. </span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjL0PJ2kWBPYZyMkCAZhW9oCKLkBnUyFmioEJ5IqimY7qpDsPPK82wKAPU8eMVBAWBVioe7WVZ8x6KHBDsRzDLrO8y952NQX183H36U8prVTHFsRr9GmdSjQukX_nniNy7OU6Adwp0pM6y6n1HtKH1IMxSeZYpgDYxR96m7u6d-KQavG-6KxLc2GrXfCA=s1498" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="1498" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjL0PJ2kWBPYZyMkCAZhW9oCKLkBnUyFmioEJ5IqimY7qpDsPPK82wKAPU8eMVBAWBVioe7WVZ8x6KHBDsRzDLrO8y952NQX183H36U8prVTHFsRr9GmdSjQukX_nniNy7OU6Adwp0pM6y6n1HtKH1IMxSeZYpgDYxR96m7u6d-KQavG-6KxLc2GrXfCA=w640-h176" width="640" /></span></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">KAZEMZADEH (2021)</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></i></div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Depending on what model is used, results often differ. Nevertheless, Kazmzadeh's 2021 satellite analysis, likewise, found no precipitation trends in the eastern USA for the most recent 20 years. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Using a different time frame, Kazemzadeh did find significant trends in different locations than Nguyen. But still, only 6.1 % of the earth experienced any statistically significant increased precipitation while 6.1% experienced significant decreases. Both studies suggest no change in the supply of moisture for rainfall.
And in contrast to Trenberth’s expectation of amplified precipitation where moisture converges, hardly any portion of the ITCZ’s region experiences any increased rainfall. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKGEt8B1Rhj43FPTOTU0DI9nOn-bqgGQLGxRoHFauqOUXeOCZp3ebOeoLE5iBtyMdavcKFECG4sKV307IHNQ7DYDIe0E-HSQSWEopg-ZpKhCa0cEqZIs603QNVWdgwAmBPt3-EfhEWY_X183277mlkfoi47v7ggEQsvkFcH1Hr6rivQkc5AD23s4APCg=s1074" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="1074" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKGEt8B1Rhj43FPTOTU0DI9nOn-bqgGQLGxRoHFauqOUXeOCZp3ebOeoLE5iBtyMdavcKFECG4sKV307IHNQ7DYDIe0E-HSQSWEopg-ZpKhCa0cEqZIs603QNVWdgwAmBPt3-EfhEWY_X183277mlkfoi47v7ggEQsvkFcH1Hr6rivQkc5AD23s4APCg=w640-h264" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /> </span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In addition to the effect of different starting dates for rainfall trends, how a region's boundary is defined also alters trend analyses. Because state agencies manage water resources, Nguyen 2018 analyzed rainfall trends by political boundaries, resulting in 10 states exhibiting insignificant trends of increasing rainfall while 5 states experienced significant decreasing trends. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">A much different picture arose when defining regions by the more climatically meaningful watershed boundaries. Such analysis then found no regions of the USA experiencing any increase in rainfall, but a significant drying trend in the Colorado river basin. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8M-nYmF57z7_4xFSry1mccMyY_BQGtc0Ak2XlSXL_lIzUQ3O7Kl_8hx9pDMvkgIACTY51p6sOBH_vILDO7aUOTAkMMenEd0Rta9a_6I5HNtOb6N20UjcGitCeWJAALL8l17X4NA-KCvPRsEtqsrApZQhgPAmBd5K8X19yfXuL976YPt1ggaxnh0pmew=s1074" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="1074" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8M-nYmF57z7_4xFSry1mccMyY_BQGtc0Ak2XlSXL_lIzUQ3O7Kl_8hx9pDMvkgIACTY51p6sOBH_vILDO7aUOTAkMMenEd0Rta9a_6I5HNtOb6N20UjcGitCeWJAALL8l17X4NA-KCvPRsEtqsrApZQhgPAmBd5K8X19yfXuL976YPt1ggaxnh0pmew=w640-h264" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So beware, depending on a researcher's agenda, they can cherry-pick the statistics that best suits their narrative. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">If Trenberth’s theoretical proclamations are true that global warming has increased extreme rainfall, it should be reflected in higher flood peaks in the rivers.
To test the global warming claims, Gabrielle Villarini examined 50 long-term stream gauge stations, each with a 100+ years of data.
As her results here indicate, there has been no increasing trend in peak river flows. The range of flow volumes remained stationary within the bounds of natural variability. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgumttoRWK55AfEHxl35F5OaYjX2y7mzYT3XNHFsFc_Lv5r_CRBgeNjkjo3rh0BiaAxcZBJnstTTGKpnNAoLIy78aDdSYchZfpBWoXG2aYff62jxVAu0vWa3GGHqTs52x8iGm4Yqb12CfOGgOtECa8nyBkkgPu7faOaqwTZhvgp-hC2rp5RBq0Xte8bXA=s922" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="922" data-original-width="724" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgumttoRWK55AfEHxl35F5OaYjX2y7mzYT3XNHFsFc_Lv5r_CRBgeNjkjo3rh0BiaAxcZBJnstTTGKpnNAoLIy78aDdSYchZfpBWoXG2aYff62jxVAu0vWa3GGHqTs52x8iGm4Yqb12CfOGgOtECa8nyBkkgPu7faOaqwTZhvgp-hC2rp5RBq0Xte8bXA=w502-h640" width="502" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Nonetheless, there are always outlier years with damaging floods and those years provide the misleading click-bait headlines for the media. The oldest USA station that has monitored the Connecticut river since 1836, had a major flood due to the rains of the march hurricane of 1936.
So damaging was that flood, it prompted the USA’s flood control act of 1936. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Given the lack of any long-term river flow trends, Villarini concluded </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">"it is easier to proclaim the demise of stationarity of flood peaks than to prove it through analyses of annual flood peak data." </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhqe2LSYm_ysYtP7R5ShnrDJh7x2O9EOkAMLWE6BQjQCFs-gvm9oKxdgoLYmhnzqDFj6JlZixFgq0RBPCwclIqMeZ6657R6Q79w4f65X1bAcO-9yjp1dgspCeqxyHFBRtnPwALSmSgxlQXeuas_y5332wXmw_EmDx0c3vwrJrri1BlU52wRGvbBm4e1cQ=s1230" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="1230" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhqe2LSYm_ysYtP7R5ShnrDJh7x2O9EOkAMLWE6BQjQCFs-gvm9oKxdgoLYmhnzqDFj6JlZixFgq0RBPCwclIqMeZ6657R6Q79w4f65X1bAcO-9yjp1dgspCeqxyHFBRtnPwALSmSgxlQXeuas_y5332wXmw_EmDx0c3vwrJrri1BlU52wRGvbBm4e1cQ=w640-h396" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The causes of flood damage from hurricanes are more complex and must consider extreme precipitation, coastal surges, coastal landscape changes and broken levees. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But as expected the devastating flood from hurricane Katrina in 2005 provided Trenberth with the optics to push his single-minded obsession with a climate crisis. Again, he repeated that the Clausius-Clayperon equation dictated worse floods due to an 8% increase in extreme precipitation and a warmer ocean making Katrina stronger. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But Katrina evolved as local conditions changed, not as a global warming statistic changed. Katrina was a small category 1 hurricane when it first hit Florida, then evolving into a category 5 over the Gulf of Mexico but declining into a category 4 and 3 as it hit the gulf's coastline. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">If we cherry pick Katrina’s time as a category 5 hurricane, it rates as the 12th strongest in 150 years.
But there were stronger hurricanes in the 1930s and 50s, contradicting claims that global warming had caused stronger hurricanes. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoDbaZguAMxF4RdGqSKgaz78gAhSLGfPZU3OtcR7WDpndGk-tz2JMxjteZz4xSLi6eJjNpzvdY7DrocJcTl_Nayj9zvtOkc-L3TGeiSPkB-bnHcU3UMv9ZEEK0Hna9jHWB-g84gyqbSGH16hDotgz7FoR72GYViUBJi65kK88D9GyaPcenoPihOt8tSg=s662" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="662" height="606" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoDbaZguAMxF4RdGqSKgaz78gAhSLGfPZU3OtcR7WDpndGk-tz2JMxjteZz4xSLi6eJjNpzvdY7DrocJcTl_Nayj9zvtOkc-L3TGeiSPkB-bnHcU3UMv9ZEEK0Hna9jHWB-g84gyqbSGH16hDotgz7FoR72GYViUBJi65kK88D9GyaPcenoPihOt8tSg=w640-h606" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The horrific flooding was not due to human effects on climate but, how humans had degraded the landscape around New Orleans.
By altering the Mississippi river's course, and draining and urbanizing the wetlands of its floodplains, parts of New Orleans, are now 3 to 5 meters below sea level. Even without a hurricane, any failure of its levees, would produce a devastating flood.
A recent study by Dixon in 2005 found New Orleans is still sinking at a rate of 6.4 mm/year and as much as 33 mm/year. Sinking land is a far bigger threat than rising sea level. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiDgC2KXo9ygDgBnPX3fg-PwzqEuTnQoBv8ZP_WU4-zjZw7YlfmeB1N-DCLcn_27AXMWw2VQxBdDjugEPvky5OYPVgjZCgQJZtptdlp2C7GVi9XKYKA4-2wLIX9zL3h-6TAiIqQfum9t-MIMgzEAUOoiVEK7FIM46Jh5JhnewES1dHVCS118Kdza2kSNg=s900" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="900" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiDgC2KXo9ygDgBnPX3fg-PwzqEuTnQoBv8ZP_WU4-zjZw7YlfmeB1N-DCLcn_27AXMWw2VQxBdDjugEPvky5OYPVgjZCgQJZtptdlp2C7GVi9XKYKA4-2wLIX9zL3h-6TAiIqQfum9t-MIMgzEAUOoiVEK7FIM46Jh5JhnewES1dHVCS118Kdza2kSNg=w640-h520" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Where hurricanes make landfall is primarily determined by how the winds from the Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system guides the storm.
Known as the Bermuda high when centered more towards the USA, the winds more often drive hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico, relative to times when the high is centered further east and known as the azure high, which causes more hurricanes to pass up the middle of the Atlantic with little coastal impacts. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">This relationship with the High-pressure system is clearly seen by mapping the frequencies of hurricane storm tracks.
As represented by the dark red regions, hurricanes more frequently pass harmlessly northward much to the east of the USA.
The 2 regions that experience the most landfalling hurricanes are around New Orleans and the east coast from Florida to North Carolina when the high moves westward. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGFIA-d7PcTMta5FAEsaEDy-RCM41CxZAp3N5u35MilxeGo6HUyX2vpIJ5dNeIwBQte2nM4ZVlBDcFEC2lTSd4KOdWIdyzM8T5VqtQJHkEei39LTB6iStjwF-tmGzG635AJYQlAi46bQIPwZe26A32Iqwku3uRuDqoe9AXoU5og3ke-BBHM9NkuklLdA=s1987" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1533" data-original-width="1987" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgGFIA-d7PcTMta5FAEsaEDy-RCM41CxZAp3N5u35MilxeGo6HUyX2vpIJ5dNeIwBQte2nM4ZVlBDcFEC2lTSd4KOdWIdyzM8T5VqtQJHkEei39LTB6iStjwF-tmGzG635AJYQlAi46bQIPwZe26A32Iqwku3uRuDqoe9AXoU5og3ke-BBHM9NkuklLdA=w640-h494" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Climate scientist have been deeply divided on whether or not global warming is causing more Atlantic hurricanes.
Using raw data, Trenberth’s ilk point to a rising trend as seen in green. Other scientists argue before the satellite era, many hurricanes went undetected and thus were underestimated unless they came closer to shore.
So those scientists adjust the data and find no trend as illustrated by the orange line.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsvFe4fqw0J-stNvVo5r-EzEa9KcBxIIGHa0ORtj2c4tZPQtpWlRVU8YsJCYBlpOPlzTdFukFRKQ6Zzpn8n_teR1fcwL940pMJSrXW11nrudDquxj1uYP4Ph164tDmT8p72Ul4l9E8vuReN6L6-2US61rsVGS3zCxFAmc15zk3z9Z9R2FiCQdm9xFazA=s1592" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="502" data-original-width="1592" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjsvFe4fqw0J-stNvVo5r-EzEa9KcBxIIGHa0ORtj2c4tZPQtpWlRVU8YsJCYBlpOPlzTdFukFRKQ6Zzpn8n_teR1fcwL940pMJSrXW11nrudDquxj1uYP4Ph164tDmT8p72Ul4l9E8vuReN6L6-2US61rsVGS3zCxFAmc15zk3z9Z9R2FiCQdm9xFazA=w640-h202" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Hurricane landfall data is more robust, and it too finds no increasing trend. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And accordingly, there is no significant trend in precipitation in the USA where it is most affected by hurricanes. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">High precipitation in every cyclonic storm, whether called hurricanes, extratropical cyclones or atmospheric rivers is primarily due to warm moisture transported poleward from the tropics by the warm conveyor belt
As the warm conveyor approaches colder air to the north, it rises and cools, causing moisture to condense and rain out.
The rising air of the warm conveyor also induces cold dry air to sink from the upper atmosphere to maintain a mass balance. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijE0g4gPRP3-ql8hCXJHsm8VL1LD-6GxxtH2Tkw3ihlw7D5Ku_J9mYadjNrgA9s8-co-f-89J-N_X64Y8xybnwd1EnT8Rcqp-SXSM8DRBhNfz9jYPNPUi4BcuF62DGBDl-ZbvcTDCfhopnJttbEmzQAmVWNPHYVKIKTXeGiHmy9wzk1KEwdLKmzZZY2A=s814" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="814" height="578" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijE0g4gPRP3-ql8hCXJHsm8VL1LD-6GxxtH2Tkw3ihlw7D5Ku_J9mYadjNrgA9s8-co-f-89J-N_X64Y8xybnwd1EnT8Rcqp-SXSM8DRBhNfz9jYPNPUi4BcuF62DGBDl-ZbvcTDCfhopnJttbEmzQAmVWNPHYVKIKTXeGiHmy9wzk1KEwdLKmzZZY2A=w640-h578" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">These dynamics of all cyclonic storms are readily seen in satellite photos.
The long gold arrow illustrates the path of the warm conveyor that is causing clouds to form as it rises. Also note the faint outline of the USA showing the moisture is being pulled from the tropics south of the Yucatan
The dark band paralleling the warm conveyor represents the cold dry air that has descended into the cyclone. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhO8WxwaMeyz6za5ZvzSOGWf956AHgvbDvQNk9nZjWJDkelHLSsptI_bOgUQA205AsL4vrVoPnTAvyTTSANms7zIpzXTFg8uVewKUWtd-Ut2nsLoUcNhSdo4Xa8LeyZFCnc79-Vnj51h0MMBfcpHm2jH0F-Lg15zZUD_LMCfDgmDV7ujZagLNJpSM3-Rg=s700" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhO8WxwaMeyz6za5ZvzSOGWf956AHgvbDvQNk9nZjWJDkelHLSsptI_bOgUQA205AsL4vrVoPnTAvyTTSANms7zIpzXTFg8uVewKUWtd-Ut2nsLoUcNhSdo4Xa8LeyZFCnc79-Vnj51h0MMBfcpHm2jH0F-Lg15zZUD_LMCfDgmDV7ujZagLNJpSM3-Rg=w640-h320" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The earth's more frequent atmospheric rivers transport more moisture poleward than hurricanes,
likewise, via their warm conveyor belts, they transport more than 90% of all tropical moisture reaching the mid latitudes. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Globally about 130 atmospheric rivers occur each year with 20–30-hour lifespans. Disproportionately, California averages 15 a year, explaining why California is such a hot spot for extreme precipitation.
Globally there can be 5 or 6 atmospheric rivers happening at any one time, but not all make landfall. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjwHc0D73u7Rjprk0zEhJegoXs8GmPeTDBnc0rCdpGXVAzebacpg9ERiXiU8HYw9dE7ZCYMbG0AKNoVgXEJQEU5FRExlZuo7PzDacRMPXcDh22nqrzvlkdS9X8mVcQr1f0c2-8T8XPyhhxOlaReeVYiNxynRoWzgQi5FyXMVEb8sP2dn5qPf9Kw3aR8sg=s3886" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1787" data-original-width="3886" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjwHc0D73u7Rjprk0zEhJegoXs8GmPeTDBnc0rCdpGXVAzebacpg9ERiXiU8HYw9dE7ZCYMbG0AKNoVgXEJQEU5FRExlZuo7PzDacRMPXcDh22nqrzvlkdS9X8mVcQr1f0c2-8T8XPyhhxOlaReeVYiNxynRoWzgQi5FyXMVEb8sP2dn5qPf9Kw3aR8sg=w640-h294" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Like hurricanes, the path of an atmospheric river is determined by the configuration of High- and Low-pressure systems. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Here an atmospheric river extends poleward from the pacific warm pool
With a contracted low-pressure system centered around the Aleutian Islands, the atmospheric river was guided north of San Francisco (the green dot) and into British Columbia on September 21, 2021. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiqOOPdmpb2GOFMq_xkRB4O80x7R4MH-MKYuBQXVRfyBnDNs9ZraskGE6L62AS80beU0FkAScPVaJs_5bDMn8U-bdEplPk0uST-Nfr2C1QiyYrFgexOiHKHulHB5WRSENMjU-zGa8ASdW3Q88U_tI3ZfEPJuUvW6aJf03hUim1jsXi9yHedgNJ40T8-wA=s3868" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1980" data-original-width="3868" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiqOOPdmpb2GOFMq_xkRB4O80x7R4MH-MKYuBQXVRfyBnDNs9ZraskGE6L62AS80beU0FkAScPVaJs_5bDMn8U-bdEplPk0uST-Nfr2C1QiyYrFgexOiHKHulHB5WRSENMjU-zGa8ASdW3Q88U_tI3ZfEPJuUvW6aJf03hUim1jsXi9yHedgNJ40T8-wA=w640-h328" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">One month later, the low-pressure system had expanded and moved southward.
Along with the high-pressure system to the south the atmospheric river was guided into California. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHyQVhZz024c3U-y85lbMJXrOu09Vr3whUfbfNfLcgenJ97ilgD97nry-t_legWNl5Hk4UcGR_XBkp-8GzCQVAns7MJR1SV5Cp9d6wAdKItQeIu0ZjnCwxRn8QpzTmupJvDvJ-GFE-GlLbsdAepcD1LT8I1SmSmjYxRXMt7MeNlde9S1pQS3fwYQKaEQ=s1915" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1388" data-original-width="1915" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHyQVhZz024c3U-y85lbMJXrOu09Vr3whUfbfNfLcgenJ97ilgD97nry-t_legWNl5Hk4UcGR_XBkp-8GzCQVAns7MJR1SV5Cp9d6wAdKItQeIu0ZjnCwxRn8QpzTmupJvDvJ-GFE-GlLbsdAepcD1LT8I1SmSmjYxRXMt7MeNlde9S1pQS3fwYQKaEQ=w640-h464" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">San Francisco received over 4 inches of rain in a single day, ranking as the 4th most ever recorded. But we can’t blame global warming
More and stronger rainfalls happened in the cooler 1800s. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDGaUFIM5BaYs2A3bNDMyRN7zKvYWClfy9f89gufOGNY5xnEiscoReIYko0_FsvCjDn-BT4OIN3GBjm9dAWM_Lp7tZ8L7SzZgIzNMx-NS-r4DPDM8msaOKvvy0ffxSpLJ6J_f6gC4MTpRp8wWs2fLDfDb0W9vLkh6RMKOQ6-06yIcYKAF3U2My-Z4C0Q=s540" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="540" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjDGaUFIM5BaYs2A3bNDMyRN7zKvYWClfy9f89gufOGNY5xnEiscoReIYko0_FsvCjDn-BT4OIN3GBjm9dAWM_Lp7tZ8L7SzZgIzNMx-NS-r4DPDM8msaOKvvy0ffxSpLJ6J_f6gC4MTpRp8wWs2fLDfDb0W9vLkh6RMKOQ6-06yIcYKAF3U2My-Z4C0Q=w640-h442" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">The great flood of 1862 was caused by an atmospheric river’s rain on snow event in the sierra Nevada that resulted in the downstream flooding of Sacramento.
By studying the amounts of sediments delivered by heavy river flows into the Santa Barbara basin and san Francisco Bay, scientist have identified floods caused by past atmospheric rivers.
During the cooler times of the Little Ice Age between 1300 and 1860s ad, California experienced several atmospheric river-induced megafloods.
The greatest of all in over 2000 years happened in 1605. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So why so many mega-floods during the cooler little ice age?</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6yKwDgs5RBluVST_dryeQtVH8vDRefTO3QiZnQeI0_j8mZlgOvBdyjCmBeAlU3NgB1b6V49mPSomW06g-h0BCnLhWgsyLWtDh1esUW1I6gpzFyfwMo8cnhRJFPvKyThRoOWundDd9JGnc6d2di8axMlUxhPyOfOwUKe2qyi6vM4dtqZbQAHeahmjrzA=s468" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6yKwDgs5RBluVST_dryeQtVH8vDRefTO3QiZnQeI0_j8mZlgOvBdyjCmBeAlU3NgB1b6V49mPSomW06g-h0BCnLhWgsyLWtDh1esUW1I6gpzFyfwMo8cnhRJFPvKyThRoOWundDd9JGnc6d2di8axMlUxhPyOfOwUKe2qyi6vM4dtqZbQAHeahmjrzA=w640-h360" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">
The best explanation suggests as El Ninos and La Ninas and the associated pacific decadal oscillation alter the sea surface temperatures,
The pressure systems align accordingly </span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Although debated, most researchers have determined that during the Little Ice Age the Pacific Ocean existed mostly in an el Nino-like condition with more rainfall over the eastern pacific due to warmer surface temperatures
In combination with more atmospheric rivers initiating from a warmer eastern pacific, the research by Zhou 2019 shows El Nino-like conditions configure the cyclonic low-pressure systems and anticyclonic high-pressure systems to drive more atmospheric rivers into California </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgK5ONT2zmbvsRh9ZBFUKLV9dQE6IJ3YwPkYp4URRSGw_4PIEAGquCgHZpQPcUiWwVyL7-DdeR5Z0VlWBrnyBjY13LLDEjgmSb8bFnG7Bo-1z7jEM-U8L9by64QAd1lQ4eiIODkK6KcRWLM_tNqCt2czU_mtyn5oBMTSqHFK1SdkvEnBgfsJ131tRfz4Q=s2970" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="2970" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgK5ONT2zmbvsRh9ZBFUKLV9dQE6IJ3YwPkYp4URRSGw_4PIEAGquCgHZpQPcUiWwVyL7-DdeR5Z0VlWBrnyBjY13LLDEjgmSb8bFnG7Bo-1z7jEM-U8L9by64QAd1lQ4eiIODkK6KcRWLM_tNqCt2czU_mtyn5oBMTSqHFK1SdkvEnBgfsJ131tRfz4Q=w640-h244" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNGj3ew2y5LZlKVmIa7NaC1Sna4fL1KUS0QRdjI6GIrJYROR1McpZOwK29S580t-hUvJCO8LKE0IjzoqxPEC1QHtN1-pLQN2Kz8SjY3nuimxdJA4N2lM9d2hzF5Hcc7xtAu-pp7Vdh8_mCvHltr-5SI1Six7vPjbeFu2V1W5f7baKwzfQqU1Ff_pvN9A=s1296" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="1296" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjNGj3ew2y5LZlKVmIa7NaC1Sna4fL1KUS0QRdjI6GIrJYROR1McpZOwK29S580t-hUvJCO8LKE0IjzoqxPEC1QHtN1-pLQN2Kz8SjY3nuimxdJA4N2lM9d2hzF5Hcc7xtAu-pp7Vdh8_mCvHltr-5SI1Six7vPjbeFu2V1W5f7baKwzfQqU1Ff_pvN9A=w640-h242" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During La Nina-like conditions, the eastern Pacific is cooler and the western pacific is warmer.
This promotes more atmospheric rivers beginning in the western pacific warm pool.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">In combination with the resulting changes in the pressure systems, more atmospheric rivers are guided northward into British Columbia and California becomes drier. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgV7C_AUStmAgJchwcbS-4uCQ_CZ19cLJAqwg0hEGykg3ZiCgwoS-9naUmkcCi9KE3u-8k2ops5gERSHqmxqoOlf-wY4w4LVLfIjpVr8ydL1A4xVCT1Jr_P-zH4rvvjPIcmpfWHJSkN-JNwIoZJ1rNo9fL1zfAXeJlGqgv0HII9bPp2OyEuuTqBl9Buw=s2873" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1063" data-original-width="2873" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhgV7C_AUStmAgJchwcbS-4uCQ_CZ19cLJAqwg0hEGykg3ZiCgwoS-9naUmkcCi9KE3u-8k2ops5gERSHqmxqoOlf-wY4w4LVLfIjpVr8ydL1A4xVCT1Jr_P-zH4rvvjPIcmpfWHJSkN-JNwIoZJ1rNo9fL1zfAXeJlGqgv0HII9bPp2OyEuuTqBl9Buw=w640-h236" width="640" /></span></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAcRcyEV9c9FeoMz65sZfIEKPEM1p7Y54JXDsZNYNM1c7v45FC0UgjEoDPDw92fgPWH0FajeuVpKRgLPb4U8Mg16AHW03KZQqs4YUHNqNu1c5tkfRRzLBOa8HKTXMLAPUxQd362x_RF1Xk35SE0dGlhVRNhhn736ZQrTJGCMbHQioqQ5yKC8CDuA3fGg=s1242" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="486" data-original-width="1242" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAcRcyEV9c9FeoMz65sZfIEKPEM1p7Y54JXDsZNYNM1c7v45FC0UgjEoDPDw92fgPWH0FajeuVpKRgLPb4U8Mg16AHW03KZQqs4YUHNqNu1c5tkfRRzLBOa8HKTXMLAPUxQd362x_RF1Xk35SE0dGlhVRNhhn736ZQrTJGCMbHQioqQ5yKC8CDuA3fGg=w640-h250" width="640" /></span></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">During La Ninas the resulting warming of the western pacific warm pool also promotes more atmospheric rivers into the southern hemisphere,
One which recently flooded Australia’s Brisbane region.
The configuration of pressure systems focused that atmospheric river onto Brisbane and its surrounding regions, bringing a record 24.1 inches of rain in just 3 days </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiIlyl3OA4PjkESxLC5WawcqMtzcYYdHhyJtbeljsKkNGpST3-LmpoigKBlU9vUnSGkSIz9Rq2zJfdku7VkVl3KQx3F5favA6n1vKl_DGcliXBC-wmFRUALLTRIKosAUwOEhqhjyUWj1ZqVARss6X3WNLohDJScnWOTfsSchep9wZlwjSU3ok-EoRFNfw=s2530" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1035" data-original-width="2530" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiIlyl3OA4PjkESxLC5WawcqMtzcYYdHhyJtbeljsKkNGpST3-LmpoigKBlU9vUnSGkSIz9Rq2zJfdku7VkVl3KQx3F5favA6n1vKl_DGcliXBC-wmFRUALLTRIKosAUwOEhqhjyUWj1ZqVARss6X3WNLohDJScnWOTfsSchep9wZlwjSU3ok-EoRFNfw=w640-h262" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">But that is not the record rainfall for Brisbane’s watershed. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">As has been the case so often, It was during cooler times, that a stronger atmospheric river inundated the region. In 1893,
In the nearby town of Crohamhurst a record 35.7 inches of rain fell in just one day. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiUBThOitTNvFigBtn0E9b1GYvKWuqazVRP07X70r6nFNTL5iVVotw1pbGKvK0db72VPjzdLgGRyCno6AQywOp-bUxYMvMVNHKsK942F_0xrEMvcmH_4EhDPV_ZfNu3tX2hiK23TkBvcHAKNpO7-KneBHTrmeR23FFzE-WZrzO0xORmZ7v2ICgR9SCzHw=s1092" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="1092" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiUBThOitTNvFigBtn0E9b1GYvKWuqazVRP07X70r6nFNTL5iVVotw1pbGKvK0db72VPjzdLgGRyCno6AQywOp-bUxYMvMVNHKsK942F_0xrEMvcmH_4EhDPV_ZfNu3tX2hiK23TkBvcHAKNpO7-KneBHTrmeR23FFzE-WZrzO0xORmZ7v2ICgR9SCzHw=w640-h266" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">So, make no mistake. As experts have warned, megafloods are coming, with the same devastating force as they have in the past.
Climate models predict worse atmospheric rivers due to increased evaporation and the atmosphere’s greater moisture capacity from global warming, but satellite data contradicts those claims, making forecasts based on global warming useless. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimkfA58U9A4mK7iC5hZgKw7oM_9FXBl89jEOEsTavPTTX0X2-xoqjfeiJaupxpUP-pAIsZO_jRw_3KNu_bkN3eXzUpZ7ZdKdw-JW2LJLxwp71hv5oX8ZqaBDDnw15i0FHtwmABq8SWGnrKJhd0S7qara0-FifsyL32mMsOu0n45z_rYjV-kZNEYz11hw=s688" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="688" height="606" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimkfA58U9A4mK7iC5hZgKw7oM_9FXBl89jEOEsTavPTTX0X2-xoqjfeiJaupxpUP-pAIsZO_jRw_3KNu_bkN3eXzUpZ7ZdKdw-JW2LJLxwp71hv5oX8ZqaBDDnw15i0FHtwmABq8SWGnrKJhd0S7qara0-FifsyL32mMsOu0n45z_rYjV-kZNEYz11hw=w640-h606" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">And data from the little ice age shows atmospheric rivers are independent of global warming.
However, on the good side, forecasting the location of devastating floods maybe more predictable because the path of hurricanes and atmospheric rivers are, modulated by natural oscillations and their effect on observable guiding pressure systems,
But despite better weather forecasting, the real worry is people continue to colonize more and more flood plains, putting themselves in harm’s way. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrqUV7TVkFkMoACFV0qwcvC8MhbqWOJm8TBIIqDk42qXKsHfz__uZsCVJ1qgJM3zeHB5eJiwfH8OygozKvEJBnO4Xt1UQzSmfZ7l1YdHRPv4kutu0XvM7ZVWc9AUzQZSgUMc2Cy3ey8KyDs1lp9D-vDpoa6R6E-yNZv_L1FKMrrTcdQLfm2wqNOMJYDA=s1042" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="1042" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjrqUV7TVkFkMoACFV0qwcvC8MhbqWOJm8TBIIqDk42qXKsHfz__uZsCVJ1qgJM3zeHB5eJiwfH8OygozKvEJBnO4Xt1UQzSmfZ7l1YdHRPv4kutu0XvM7ZVWc9AUzQZSgUMc2Cy3ey8KyDs1lp9D-vDpoa6R6E-yNZv_L1FKMrrTcdQLfm2wqNOMJYDA=w640-h402" width="640" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">If you live in a flood plain, cutting your CO2 emissions won't stop the floods. The wisest plan is to move to higher ground or else keep reinforcing your levees.</span></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><br />Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-34540217041378711372022-02-21T12:41:00.011-08:002022-02-21T12:45:01.153-08:00HALF-TRUTHS ABOUT RETREATING GLACIERS<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">To watch the video "<a href="https://youtu.be/NAzHNoyIsZQ" target="_blank">HALF-TRUTHS ABOUT RETREATING GLACIERS"</a> visit</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a class="style-scope ytcp-video-info" href="https://youtu.be/NAzHNoyIsZQ" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: Roboto, Noto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-align: start; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/NAzHNoyIsZQ</a></div><br /><p></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">below is the transcript</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDi7QPqrTVErDkh3zPgaJpBbzPwB0YIMDL8cSDwi6rDGO2BG6XjOPPG2Sdn52AsG_q4cor0ac3GAkv_NX19AI6o4QErS6pW8bZRjrd0FBcM8LHsIPWwbxLvkyiDB5CPl2lcsT_dQwhqTLZhXbY3-GIFSfwULECSM-I0sAFFB75LNkMPCCg3gaXUGOMwg=s4037" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1269" data-original-width="4037" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDi7QPqrTVErDkh3zPgaJpBbzPwB0YIMDL8cSDwi6rDGO2BG6XjOPPG2Sdn52AsG_q4cor0ac3GAkv_NX19AI6o4QErS6pW8bZRjrd0FBcM8LHsIPWwbxLvkyiDB5CPl2lcsT_dQwhqTLZhXbY3-GIFSfwULECSM-I0sAFFB75LNkMPCCg3gaXUGOMwg=w640-h202" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Welcome back to this examination of Half Truths About Retreating Glaciers in part 6 of How Pressure Systems Control Climate. </p>
<p>There is no question what-so-ever that most of the world's glaciers have been retreating. However because the elites at Climate.gov believe rising CO2 is causing all the earth's warming, they mistakenly assume it iscan also be blamed for retreating glaciers, stating</p>
<p>"the most dramatic evidence that earth's climate is warming is the retreat and disappearance of mountain glaciers around the world." </p>
<p>So, the public is fed half-truths about a CO2 climate crisis causing glacier retreat. </p>
<p>In contrast, there is wealth of opposing, peer-reviewed, published, scientific evidence demonstrating that changing patterns of moisture transport control the ebbs and flows of glaciers - not global average temperature. So here I will share just a small portion of that science for you to follow. </p>
<p>Just consider that Greenland's Jakobshavn glacier retreated by half its length before 1851 during cooler times. Clearly dynamics other than warming are in play, dynamics shamefully downplayed or not discussed at all by mainstream media. </p>
<p>A growing number of scientists have been questioning the dogma that the Little Ice Age's glacier growth and subsequent retreat, was driven by changing temperature. As Norwegian glacier expert Atle Nesje queried </p>
<p>"The Little Ice Age - only temperature? </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSbLPurnsyB8eUtpIIXwFzzGy7ZH5bSRRVzpsm41L_aqGKxs7JSWUgXKiqfuC2qEUVbJRUEr6Xp99Yif-B6JpYmahD8Bw-r1zqKqwvbh9H6x0pXLl6kC4GAszY7zsdSJMpc0U_EkpaPoUjgsixZ2Rog0Q4rfwmshErk9vOBBathGbBVzKwt9kB7O-WSg=s762" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="762" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSbLPurnsyB8eUtpIIXwFzzGy7ZH5bSRRVzpsm41L_aqGKxs7JSWUgXKiqfuC2qEUVbJRUEr6Xp99Yif-B6JpYmahD8Bw-r1zqKqwvbh9H6x0pXLl6kC4GAszY7zsdSJMpc0U_EkpaPoUjgsixZ2Rog0Q4rfwmshErk9vOBBathGbBVzKwt9kB7O-WSg=w640-h404" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>In that regard climate scientist Michael Mann wrote, "the little ice age was a time of modest cooling of the northern hemisphere by about 0.6 degrees Celsius." those centuries may have been "more significant in terms of increased climate variability." </p>
<p>Climate scientist Christian Vincent questioned why the Alp's glaciers began retreating in early 1800s before any global warming had begun and concluded decreasing winter precipitation caused glacier retreats. </p>
<p>Glaciers can be characterized by two different but intimately linked zones. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhRulcVFVfmGstGw205c8jc8kGpeuIsu1wwQiiKyBKbqZmhDSnzwo3YBn5E7Jiu_4HA_JDXZ2EaP0mS98eQmHKpS5RGGEUgzHMokoVdNwIXq-3jAPYXSU5X4Vrw029xcjrbVQ1C7CDlZmVe0wAqlXyFqANtfgG9eX5eEQEI-IFYO0RIEgUTilgTDP3pdA=s1048" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1048" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhRulcVFVfmGstGw205c8jc8kGpeuIsu1wwQiiKyBKbqZmhDSnzwo3YBn5E7Jiu_4HA_JDXZ2EaP0mS98eQmHKpS5RGGEUgzHMokoVdNwIXq-3jAPYXSU5X4Vrw029xcjrbVQ1C7CDlZmVe0wAqlXyFqANtfgG9eX5eEQEI-IFYO0RIEgUTilgTDP3pdA=w640-h512" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>The ablation zone is located at the lower end of a glacier, there, snow and ice are lost during the warm summer melt season. So, some scientists argue glaciers are retreating because CO2 global warming is increasing ablation. </p>
<p>At the top of a glacier is the colder accumulation zone where snow and ice are added to a glacier. When there is less replenishment of ice in the accumulation zone due to decreased precipitation, less ice is transported downslope causing the ablation zone to retreat. </p>
<p>Thus, less precipitation can cause retreating glaciers even when temperatures are not warming. </p>
<p>A group of Swiss climate scientists led by HansPeter Holzhauser published that the period of Little Ice Age glacier growth in the Alps (illustrated by black silhouettes) correlated with periods of heavy rainfall and high lake levels (illustrated by the shaded regions) </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHDkIOzm5n4OWC4YgYXSIVDKMylovmtekqKNED-48WJm50XIXTIjHFLBqjRucNzQmYPbm4v95EzBwCc85Sm3llf38goFk7kF7Jl5Nl7WiSSxcyt8aFi4q1bMkpH1DU9YeXPAP7ECFxvgFTNz3Oz8zG-qQLgYr7SL_0CD-0RMczix0Q9oM_QZGmTZvFHQ=s2479" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1989" data-original-width="2479" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiHDkIOzm5n4OWC4YgYXSIVDKMylovmtekqKNED-48WJm50XIXTIjHFLBqjRucNzQmYPbm4v95EzBwCc85Sm3llf38goFk7kF7Jl5Nl7WiSSxcyt8aFi4q1bMkpH1DU9YeXPAP7ECFxvgFTNz3Oz8zG-qQLgYr7SL_0CD-0RMczix0Q9oM_QZGmTZvFHQ=w640-h514" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>Three periods of high lake levels corresponded with peak glacier growth while glacier retreats correlated with lower lake levels. </p>
<p>In the paper "solving the paradox of the end of the little ice age in the Alps," Vincent reported that our current retreat of alpine glaciers had resulted from a 25+% decrease in winter precipitation since 1830. </p>
<p>Norwegian glacier expert Atle Nesje argued the North Atlantic Oscillation determines which regions receive glacier sustaining moisture, by shifting the pathways of the moisture- bearing westerly winds. </p>
<p>During the oscillation's negative phase, the Azore High- and Iceland-Low pressure systems weaken and shift southward, diverting moist westerly winds towards southern Europe. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimJzzw_D5aFdp1TwB-pmYpCZwk8j43EDaG8atMTq2yCZljQegg_gubiNjL8RFVbsbKpFKjXjP-0y-dD32Mma0GXlk4oaZSV8JON7qS2FBPKU5xU3G5mjvkEILxP_KBcDqnRIIZBY7gHBxSUJOx3Lm5qzi57hjTYy-X3B5WcwkouFfpo0_vZ5fiKH9u1A=s1740" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="530" data-original-width="1740" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEimJzzw_D5aFdp1TwB-pmYpCZwk8j43EDaG8atMTq2yCZljQegg_gubiNjL8RFVbsbKpFKjXjP-0y-dD32Mma0GXlk4oaZSV8JON7qS2FBPKU5xU3G5mjvkEILxP_KBcDqnRIIZBY7gHBxSUJOx3Lm5qzi57hjTYy-X3B5WcwkouFfpo0_vZ5fiKH9u1A=w640-h194" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>During the positive phase those pressure systems intensify and shift the winds northward towards Scandinavia. In the positive phase, precipitation is diverted away from southern Europe causing its glaciers to retreat, while simultaneously redirecting moisture to the Scandinavian coast where glaciers were growing since 1967. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOOx5i5v2oQjaTIDfeeshzQBGZeZ2I_dDPi50lWZu6RTeY4RO5LRDycvkg3iPfRVc9S7S3cmzMVRMNA9UVp4M3BvFOHkal3TRLhfk85ndeIkiLiORYL4TG2ZYvp-wiXIi7wneeePGhUjsJc0Rxa0GPrcD_5wxG7wKlWfTXqL2a8Bkbho1BkVEVQjPkiw=s566" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="522" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOOx5i5v2oQjaTIDfeeshzQBGZeZ2I_dDPi50lWZu6RTeY4RO5LRDycvkg3iPfRVc9S7S3cmzMVRMNA9UVp4M3BvFOHkal3TRLhfk85ndeIkiLiORYL4TG2ZYvp-wiXIi7wneeePGhUjsJc0Rxa0GPrcD_5wxG7wKlWfTXqL2a8Bkbho1BkVEVQjPkiw=w590-h640" width="590" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><br /></p>
<p>The North Atlantic Oscillation can shift phases from month to month but on average can favor one phase for decades or centuries. </p>
<p>During the little ice age, the scientific consensus suggests the North Atlantic Oscillation was primarily in its negative phase, accounting for the growing glaciers in southern Europe. But since at least 1920, it has been in the positive phase more often, accounting for the high percentage of retreating Alpine glaciers</p><p><br /></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiEK767Z8IFM2CsdIshne4jDJCmedvM0i2rboLiB77rH3liNehaygANyXntHyEy3KXznJ4dE_r8mQu5r63ClHlguncAgdHhibEP1Fn6dsDuqVCmNdzRXxwXfnnjJCBj3YACXPSeMTsvBfEZ2byozFmxA9Cbl4ht6Vyv2BKt2u3RrzVOMzNv2xg0bi3nCg=s3391" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1324" data-original-width="3391" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiEK767Z8IFM2CsdIshne4jDJCmedvM0i2rboLiB77rH3liNehaygANyXntHyEy3KXznJ4dE_r8mQu5r63ClHlguncAgdHhibEP1Fn6dsDuqVCmNdzRXxwXfnnjJCBj3YACXPSeMTsvBfEZ2byozFmxA9Cbl4ht6Vyv2BKt2u3RrzVOMzNv2xg0bi3nCg=w640-h250" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Between 1950 and 1980, during a slightly more more negative phase of the oscillation the number of advancing Alpine glaciers increased to over 60%. But with a return to a more positive phase, fewer than 5% of the Alps’ glaciers are now observed advancing and most are retreating. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjKjgiGU84RnVlwal8wpoMItN75s19UdM9ss1HMO5PAW2QEMzHGGA9UrR4pqE3CPgu7un4of_vuX4_DUkfVJiO7-p6S2w2_mP0H6LB5zKwJ0QYN6EwjNqquk2vaNuvb_ZbiU6Y6ZcV15llrC5lXI42jyBNIu8_MetS10r10LrvCPekDlmIRG38Z6_DdPw=s349" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="349" data-original-width="280" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjKjgiGU84RnVlwal8wpoMItN75s19UdM9ss1HMO5PAW2QEMzHGGA9UrR4pqE3CPgu7un4of_vuX4_DUkfVJiO7-p6S2w2_mP0H6LB5zKwJ0QYN6EwjNqquk2vaNuvb_ZbiU6Y6ZcV15llrC5lXI42jyBNIu8_MetS10r10LrvCPekDlmIRG38Z6_DdPw=w514-h640" width="514" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>Due to the surprising denial of precipitation effects on glaciers, politicians and climate crisis promoters argued rising CO2 would cause the extinction of Mount Kilimanjaro’s glacier before 2020.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjVI-9gj1NK9LPCh6jshLarI-BXLlVyXoo62LpjTnXll2aXWz0j0CPkRQ60jf_l3ob738O5LpE1e27NwibrbmAsBBESz60ZVlC1kcaiPYF7MFO7OX_gPVSBuvMS-WLVdWRk9Y1VnpFgG1p1HlpZGZjA9N6_PGDq5pp-OGFjOopJqYYhMJP0gRJh6GFkkQ=s4290" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1622" data-original-width="4290" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjVI-9gj1NK9LPCh6jshLarI-BXLlVyXoo62LpjTnXll2aXWz0j0CPkRQ60jf_l3ob738O5LpE1e27NwibrbmAsBBESz60ZVlC1kcaiPYF7MFO7OX_gPVSBuvMS-WLVdWRk9Y1VnpFgG1p1HlpZGZjA9N6_PGDq5pp-OGFjOopJqYYhMJP0gRJh6GFkkQ=w640-h242" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>However, based on past lake levels, such as nearby Lake Naivasha’s, precipitation changes correlate with the ebbs and flows of Kilimanjaro’s glacier. </p>
<p>1000 years ago, during the Medieval Warm Period this region of Africa was much drier than today, and the existing glacier of that time likely disappeared. </p>
<p>Then during the Little Ice Age, coinciding with sunspot minimums the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrated southward, the region experienced increasing rainfall and a new glacier evolved, reaching its maximum area by the late 1700s. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhv6DbkdsAVnW6SMucJRCRNuOUnRI2C0VnF-ig9244_VokNSiNgOBVqYLRjQu42plB0hZuQL28066uw-spserK4OMQo_J_LQxZagq-EtDB_Sva-lhT6_V_oQloLEtWa2opv_spiqJ4k-gLenGP4rsyZrOnQApsb8G4LU4bAO4c_BkVASPsHhlXoYop2Vw=s1993" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1475" data-original-width="1993" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhv6DbkdsAVnW6SMucJRCRNuOUnRI2C0VnF-ig9244_VokNSiNgOBVqYLRjQu42plB0hZuQL28066uw-spserK4OMQo_J_LQxZagq-EtDB_Sva-lhT6_V_oQloLEtWa2opv_spiqJ4k-gLenGP4rsyZrOnQApsb8G4LU4bAO4c_BkVASPsHhlXoYop2Vw=w640-h474" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>In 2007, glacier expert Douglas Hardy summarized the research indicating Kilimanjaro’s current glacier is only about 50-200 years old, in agreement with the timing of Lake Naivasha’s high stand. </p>
<p>Similarly, research by Cullen (2006) concluded glaciers on Kilimanjaro are merely remnants of a past climate rather than a sensitive indicator of 20th century climate change</p>
<p>Curiously, over the past 4 years as sunspots approach a century low, lake Naivasha’s lake levels have been increasing along with increased snowfall on Kilimanjaro. So, keep an eye out for how Kilimanjaro responds. It certainly hasn’t disappeared as Al Gore or Michael Mann predicted. </p>
<p>By ignoring the precipitation dynamics of previous centuries click-bait media uses graphs like this to suggest the glacier may soon disappear and incorrectly blame CO2 warming. </p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5txq9MOU1qfIvimanEszWrfZNyPJANP3yHmjjN1FIKLITXin8kN5FZOUGpZxfQ-fjjNL5NtqiiYcXvki-hmujvtYUBiXRF4EvEKaqsnIBSTJb5x12SP7zTU6kCliGP16SVrMvBS0PAloxYJwm-SeyJjj2B3BxK7Mh0TgASEkc0pr4NijIh9zAVnnAEA=s938" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="938" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg5txq9MOU1qfIvimanEszWrfZNyPJANP3yHmjjN1FIKLITXin8kN5FZOUGpZxfQ-fjjNL5NtqiiYcXvki-hmujvtYUBiXRF4EvEKaqsnIBSTJb5x12SP7zTU6kCliGP16SVrMvBS0PAloxYJwm-SeyJjj2B3BxK7Mh0TgASEkc0pr4NijIh9zAVnnAEA=w640-h466" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>The climate crisis narratives typically fail to report renowned glacier expert Georg Kaser's 2010 explanation of that decline stating, "the near extinction of Kilimanjaro’s plateau ice in modern times is controlled by the absence of regional wet periods rather than changes in local air temperature on the peak of Kilimanjaro." </p>
<p>A 2019 study led by Kevin Anchukaitis used drought proxy data to determine regions of high rainfall and snowpack (here illustrated in blue) and regions of drought illustrated in brown</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0rUvUTXPIZOzfShlGemdd5pqgMdGR-R3k6wToRyndwtk8Vg-D9hLQ9I-B0rArjY8rNeIHKj9Kiw2feSq1Oe2RQrsIHwWKGnbElhgsx4XLwxXkiAs45eZqwVso97C-dlvt_oP1bCZB4RhGA3YcepG7n8lxIfosAZKUvIfKWOvDAVo_gdgKGP7Mhzqq7A=s3520" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1585" data-original-width="3520" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh0rUvUTXPIZOzfShlGemdd5pqgMdGR-R3k6wToRyndwtk8Vg-D9hLQ9I-B0rArjY8rNeIHKj9Kiw2feSq1Oe2RQrsIHwWKGnbElhgsx4XLwxXkiAs45eZqwVso97C-dlvt_oP1bCZB4RhGA3YcepG7n8lxIfosAZKUvIfKWOvDAVo_gdgKGP7Mhzqq7A=w640-h288" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>They found a strong correlation with weak solar output (the sunspot minimums), the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Little Ice Age glacier advances in southern Europe, Alaska, and northwestern North America</p>
<p>When the North Atlantic Oscillation changed to its positive phase, wet regions switched to dry regions, with resulting glacier retreats.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEinQmWEpgiDrhMM6zLAUaF8BWdnCPWkAbXlVySIGK6N9jJUD16oFV_EsLQtgnGCHPQ_QhPHZ7IYjUE0h9liv_7Za29A-96O61QMYbK8QewzhyYtC4k0aVQeGWr_U7u_Cn4WwnG8k9wqtGqsEhINf8BcA2n8Cd098UHuMiwmIzgPfJeWz1yKoz4ReZWr-w=s3277" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1113" data-original-width="3277" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEinQmWEpgiDrhMM6zLAUaF8BWdnCPWkAbXlVySIGK6N9jJUD16oFV_EsLQtgnGCHPQ_QhPHZ7IYjUE0h9liv_7Za29A-96O61QMYbK8QewzhyYtC4k0aVQeGWr_U7u_Cn4WwnG8k9wqtGqsEhINf8BcA2n8Cd098UHuMiwmIzgPfJeWz1yKoz4ReZWr-w=w640-h218" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>Glacier National Park, on the USA-Canadian border, sits at a pivot point of the North Atlantic Oscillation's wet/dry see saw.</p><p>The park's largest glacier, the Sperry, reached its maximum size in the mid 1800s during the wet negative phase. The ensuing drought conditions when the North Atlantic Oscillation switched to its positive phase, caused the Sperry to lose 62% of its area between 1850 and 1945. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigNgLGWbXO1UzNzsSuISM-kZBuV14eQFhlZ0QOvFbr6vyrGrCkxQQGHPAJwERB2qslIPNA56gWkjVbg9qeU415jbcqHMeSID_EzTf5IRlSyc1W_lj7HroE4MeGHKtIscIFl4fKF-1Ti4cdEPIHh5WXSYVF6PuI-Nkuai8jtt-1SIrDeISQ1Afo1eNH7A=s2892" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="2892" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigNgLGWbXO1UzNzsSuISM-kZBuV14eQFhlZ0QOvFbr6vyrGrCkxQQGHPAJwERB2qslIPNA56gWkjVbg9qeU415jbcqHMeSID_EzTf5IRlSyc1W_lj7HroE4MeGHKtIscIFl4fKF-1Ti4cdEPIHh5WXSYVF6PuI-Nkuai8jtt-1SIrDeISQ1Afo1eNH7A=w640-h202" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>Further north, the mysterious retreat of Alaska’s Glacier Bay glaciers highlighted another dynamic. </p>
<p>In 1794 the Vancouver expedition reported the entire bay was covered by a large tidewater glacier with its ocean outlet at Icy Strait choked with ice</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7GD41Z7wXtoVxYxnXPBsqlyLTZcKQT92DbAUgNfjzaqnlCBQiPwMxdS90930xgw7IWt7IkXJrdNzmrjTl8uJlhR7P_xqJW2BvLxQ6GdQ8yzCvS_1-S2oS_SN6F5-0W9Ovin6otFi9kWq81ajQQHi0K2GHTfOfMmw5_dCMVcun4UdRdlw82yA9FnUEtg=s468" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh7GD41Z7wXtoVxYxnXPBsqlyLTZcKQT92DbAUgNfjzaqnlCBQiPwMxdS90930xgw7IWt7IkXJrdNzmrjTl8uJlhR7P_xqJW2BvLxQ6GdQ8yzCvS_1-S2oS_SN6F5-0W9Ovin6otFi9kWq81ajQQHi0K2GHTfOfMmw5_dCMVcun4UdRdlw82yA9FnUEtg=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>Eighty-five years later in 1879, before global warming had begun, John Muir visited Glacier Bay to find the glacier had retreated a whopping 48 miles. </p>
<p>By 1916 the bay's main glacier had retreated an additional 17 miles
Why such a rapid retreat in cooler times? </p>
<p>To complicate matters, there are still glaciers that are currently growing despite warmer temperatures. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgszLoMF0a9JeQsjVpitafBZIypGCGttTsUcvqg6qnMGTuvwXAYo7OKG68DSDLV8FNqIecWcaLGzxKPSzjfbOf0UmMMFYPgMKSD6ed1Vb4rfT91y3bGBWe2K7jKsdgqSufrZ_165aQ9DAbDJSqM_cpZ5-k-zDXFw--eOjF_lhCkCxfcO0oW07QKdpZoFw=s468" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgszLoMF0a9JeQsjVpitafBZIypGCGttTsUcvqg6qnMGTuvwXAYo7OKG68DSDLV8FNqIecWcaLGzxKPSzjfbOf0UmMMFYPgMKSD6ed1Vb4rfT91y3bGBWe2K7jKsdgqSufrZ_165aQ9DAbDJSqM_cpZ5-k-zDXFw--eOjF_lhCkCxfcO0oW07QKdpZoFw=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
<p>The Johns Hopkins glacier has been advancing since 1929. </p>
<p>The Margerie glacier flows downslope at a rate of 2000 feet per year where its terminus maintains a stable position by calving ice bergs into the bay. </p>
<p>The Brady Glacier had advanced between 1794 and 1961 and is now relatively stable</p>
<p>The key to understanding these contrasting fluctuations is that the non-retreating glaciers have accumulation zones at elevations above 10,000 feet or 3 kilometers. </p>
<p>Livia Jakob’s 2021 study of glacier behavior in the Gulf of Alaska since 2010 showed contrasting glacier fluctuations were a function of elevation. Glacier Bay is fed by glaciers in the St Elias mountains (shown here in orange) </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtvXVfks_Y_t0uH899VrlpChncdoF5HzdPG1fJ8KqODm_d2LFP1gIaDkBLw5TxRZ87_2ZNWHEBgoSO2-_FKZbFHlo-UgiFwHIBX0dKkLCdg-1OaIRIVhXHDr4gELSyEIoHAmdODgpV7OLX5mrt4tYHSsQBWQOkudoHxdjjwhCvmN9S6suVtyyhwQkfug=s2424" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2332" data-original-width="2424" height="616" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgtvXVfks_Y_t0uH899VrlpChncdoF5HzdPG1fJ8KqODm_d2LFP1gIaDkBLw5TxRZ87_2ZNWHEBgoSO2-_FKZbFHlo-UgiFwHIBX0dKkLCdg-1OaIRIVhXHDr4gELSyEIoHAmdODgpV7OLX5mrt4tYHSsQBWQOkudoHxdjjwhCvmN9S6suVtyyhwQkfug=w640-h616" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>Glaciers originating in the higher elevation mountains are stable or gaining ice over the past decade as seen by the green trend lines in the St Elias Mountains and the Alaska Range mountains. </p>
<p>In contrast, glaciers at lower elevations are losing ice, the reds and yellow trend lines. Coincidentally, most of the small glaciers that once contributed to the glacier that had filled Glacier Bay and seen during the Vancouver expedition, had accumulation zones below 10,000 feet. </p>
<p>Clearly, in addition to precipitation amounts, glacier growth and retreat are functions of elevation</p>
<p>Why is an elevation of 3 km or 10,000 feet so critical at Glacier Bay? </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6--QI8egVoLGUK3fPRDgb2pse9uunWqoExXSsrenOD5upXgjlRAfggruEOm4jHQb2f-rpeIE7sQuXdnquWg_UqjvkfSQxWvUlqSA7cPqpxbmL8Fok03i2F526byR9BCHU9b8vqRMESuIOpgycvPM7l6qsRbs7ULgoT05BKrwd4-JmW7B5T0k8JH3RJw=s468" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg6--QI8egVoLGUK3fPRDgb2pse9uunWqoExXSsrenOD5upXgjlRAfggruEOm4jHQb2f-rpeIE7sQuXdnquWg_UqjvkfSQxWvUlqSA7cPqpxbmL8Fok03i2F526byR9BCHU9b8vqRMESuIOpgycvPM7l6qsRbs7ULgoT05BKrwd4-JmW7B5T0k8JH3RJw=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>Snow forms when water vapor freezes and freezing temperatures are typically encountered at 10,000 feet and above. For snow to accumulate on a mountain slope, local air temperatures must remain below freezing all the way to the surface. </p>
<p>However, during the summer, Glacier Bay's average high surface temperatures are above freezing in August through October, just when peak precipitation occurs. </p>
<p>Using a moist lapse rate of 2.7 ºF cooling for every 1000-foot increase in altitude, we can calculate the elevation where snow will accumulate each month. </p>
<p>The minimal freezing elevation for August is 10,300 feet, it's 7,700 feet for September and 4,800 feet in October</p>
<p>Atmospheric rivers carry the bulk of moisture from the tropics to the higher latitudes. Where atmospheric rivers make landfall is determined by the seasonal position of the Pacific’s high- and low-pressure systems. </p>
<p>The more northerly position of the Pacific High-pressure system during summer guides more atmospheric rivers into the Gulf of Alaska during August through October. Accordingly, Glacier Bay's peak precipitation happens during September and October. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgXbBqtrmUtBN7Cbqvvjk4T41EUkLkZy_ZFa-v5A9yK8NbiQjQ5GP3Jh5CB1uA_TeM3jkxV6BBZr-FZTw46xTDUlENYn_6UGvtGTv8Zv99Z3OAHij_sG88J-asQbelQB-7jRpvffVvE0zncPu5LgaoweIl8NN3vdizxvjNIfiKNZttKqy5ETDgNoZ3Lrg=s2575" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1700" data-original-width="2575" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgXbBqtrmUtBN7Cbqvvjk4T41EUkLkZy_ZFa-v5A9yK8NbiQjQ5GP3Jh5CB1uA_TeM3jkxV6BBZr-FZTw46xTDUlENYn_6UGvtGTv8Zv99Z3OAHij_sG88J-asQbelQB-7jRpvffVvE0zncPu5LgaoweIl8NN3vdizxvjNIfiKNZttKqy5ETDgNoZ3Lrg=w640-h422" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>But landfall of relatively warm atmospheric rivers has dramatically different effects on snowpack at different elevations. Atmospheric rivers increase snowpack above the freezing elevations but reduce snowpack at lower elevations. The near total reduction of snowpack by a warm atmospheric river, has been well documented from Greenland to California’s sierra Nevada. </p>
<p>Without accounting for elevation freezing points such contrasting effects have caused some correlational studies to mistakenly suggest precipitation has no significant effect on a glaciers overall growth. </p>
<p>The moisture transport to the Himalayan glaciers is more complicated. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8qs374naed1xGxmbed32meL7XcLqnTAeK_ngBCyjd-qAJ13iSyDQJhRGCDVBUNtzotL35QqTBi9zj6awVlpcSj_Nhsfy7iJNcamJcU82kRkNe_-f6MgJOMQwMaI-U1H4wzRUEOaf45aoaqLsMU9yu-96ImahDpTk96KKrVnXS1FClghdfaPA0t32rUQ=s4290" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1416" data-original-width="4290" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj8qs374naed1xGxmbed32meL7XcLqnTAeK_ngBCyjd-qAJ13iSyDQJhRGCDVBUNtzotL35QqTBi9zj6awVlpcSj_Nhsfy7iJNcamJcU82kRkNe_-f6MgJOMQwMaI-U1H4wzRUEOaf45aoaqLsMU9yu-96ImahDpTk96KKrVnXS1FClghdfaPA0t32rUQ=w640-h212" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
<p>The greatest accumulation of ice in the Mount Everest region is driven by summer monsoons. And similar to northwestern North America’s glaciers, El Ninos and La Ninas will cause decadal ebbs and flows of moisture transport to those glaciers. </p>
<p>In contrast, the Karakorum mountains receive little moisture from the summer monsoons but more moisture from the winter westerly winds, causing the Karakorum glaciers to react differently than eastern Himalayan glaciers</p>
<p>Nonetheless, a multitude of researchers such as Shekhar (2017) and Singh 2020.
They have reported a long-term drying trend that began in the late phases of the Little Ice Age causing retreating Himalayan glaciers before the rise of industrial CO2. </p>
<p><br /></p><p>Climate expert Tapio Schneider's 2014 research described how the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrated southward during the Little Ice Age, weakening the Asian monsoons supply of summer moisture to Himalayan glaciers</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1Wh615s3cyWsv1klPMR8ukPuvnVoxrOrP5mev8eZ-dgdBKZayp5KnTIn6yMuOXbg13z0GU9goNkKg5fAOHGR31vx2IQrQGNjYYZeEqVXVa7qiM_AEuoRJnn2TvitLLfNmNtt-9dt84UAx94m8gj5vYdasmdZ3VkXaj2b4CDt3t7fGrYKtCDFTu0u_WA=s468" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi1Wh615s3cyWsv1klPMR8ukPuvnVoxrOrP5mev8eZ-dgdBKZayp5KnTIn6yMuOXbg13z0GU9goNkKg5fAOHGR31vx2IQrQGNjYYZeEqVXVa7qiM_AEuoRJnn2TvitLLfNmNtt-9dt84UAx94m8gj5vYdasmdZ3VkXaj2b4CDt3t7fGrYKtCDFTu0u_WA=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>Jian Hui Chen's 2019 study detailed, how the north Atlantic oscillation affects moisture transport to the Himalaya. As the Little Ice Age ITCZ and associated pressure systems shifted southward, a wavier jet stream brought more moisture to the Himalaya and Tibetan plateau via the westerly winds. </p>
<p>As solar irradiance rebounded from its depths during the Maunder sunspot minimum, the ITCZ and associated pressure systems began migrating northward, also driving the jet stream northward and reducing moisture transport to the Himalaya. </p>
<p>The interplay of these conflicting dynamics makes it difficult to predict future glacier changes in the Himalaya. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the politically driven United Nations Environmental Programme, or UNEP argues the decline of Himalayan glaciers are a "clear indicator of [CO2] climate change" and an "obvious indicator of warming temperatures" and they provide this illustration to support their narrative. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzJbUPpDduBvSbMjvLyPCuUXAa2qBpVNzQ3ol0-v3bbwfgXu261C49HceevFVyqvvSw77leO-789h-PkA0aNxj-MqSTfvPkNAruiVRuLBTNxLPbQj6jxcgfZ0rrx7Pzknn6y2dezH3TcuUOQ0U-Lbzi1J7LM5g9R1AxjDiTBg9qQIbcWtiWHGLJBA4FQ=s2057" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2057" data-original-width="1993" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgzJbUPpDduBvSbMjvLyPCuUXAa2qBpVNzQ3ol0-v3bbwfgXu261C49HceevFVyqvvSw77leO-789h-PkA0aNxj-MqSTfvPkNAruiVRuLBTNxLPbQj6jxcgfZ0rrx7Pzknn6y2dezH3TcuUOQ0U-Lbzi1J7LM5g9R1AxjDiTBg9qQIbcWtiWHGLJBA4FQ=w620-h640" width="620" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>However, their bias is immediately obvious. </p>
<p>They illustrate a strong decline in 3 Karakorum glaciers, but just one stable glacier and one that is slightly gaining ice. In contrast, glacier expert Melanie Rankl's 2014 study reported nearly 80% of Karakorum’s glaciers were stable, 5% were advancing and only 7.6% were retreating. </p>
<p>Furthermore, due to a dearth of long-term surveys, most of the Himalayan retreating trends begin around 1960, and that provides the misleading optics used to support a narrative of human-caused CO2 warming. UNEP provides only 2 trends beginning around 1850, and those clearly demonstrate glacier retreats began before global warming. </p>
<p>The United Nations is disturbingly spreading mis-information by not informing the public about the well-documented drying trends that initiated glacier retreat before rising CO2. </p>
<p>But then again, I expect nothing less from an agenda-driven organization that brings a sixteen- year-old actress front and center to brow beat the public about climate science. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjd9m0cL1RpymcXApEykxbpEBaKztvZeM3HXshundIwUgC17i3pohBX5LKwN0Q8LYBQA9JnXq7euvuPnvFFTZMM5KV2tJTjVlCetG_fIC7P_0f8vSrz-fhazAngJMypF_rZ2ipmdSMkRyPFJU5DPgg2CFFhsKAZ5FjqXBIJ2hf-S5LCxorbGeCWh6slgA=s468" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="468" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjd9m0cL1RpymcXApEykxbpEBaKztvZeM3HXshundIwUgC17i3pohBX5LKwN0Q8LYBQA9JnXq7euvuPnvFFTZMM5KV2tJTjVlCetG_fIC7P_0f8vSrz-fhazAngJMypF_rZ2ipmdSMkRyPFJU5DPgg2CFFhsKAZ5FjqXBIJ2hf-S5LCxorbGeCWh6slgA=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>Tibet's ancient holy mother, Quomalangma, also known as Mt Everest, further illustrates why retreating glaciers are a function of less precipitation. </p>
<p>As Franco Salerno published in 2015, 75% of Quomalangma's glaciers reside between elevations of 5000 meter (16,500 feet) and 6500 meters (21,300 feet). This happens because atmospheric temperatures do not drop below the freezing point until elevations of 5000 meters and higher. </p>
<p>Glacier accumulation zones are fed by monsoonal moisture peaking in July and August. Accumulation zones must be above 5000 meters as summer monsoonal flows raise the surface temperatures above freezing at 5000 meters. However, measurements reveal precipitation at high elevations was just half of what it had been 20 years before Salerno's study. </p>
<p>That fact led Salerno to conclude their research “Challenges the assumption that temperature is the main driver of glacier mass changes.” </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhYlF-88cKMWRLuPBbFA8CJAivIxHkD6ea3AS1WrjFEaeZKCsDfAqKKsbWj5V_i0q7oZoLaBSKx973jp9Lh1xe2OMcFeg6ftih9NiKF8BCeP4-WQEC7Fo-VcmNozNFsHDbCPp4ryCOBOZ1BYZMs5qBMl_tPaZB_TelNg0TilLVHM_6nqDsEmoAHn9fulA=s798" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="730" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhYlF-88cKMWRLuPBbFA8CJAivIxHkD6ea3AS1WrjFEaeZKCsDfAqKKsbWj5V_i0q7oZoLaBSKx973jp9Lh1xe2OMcFeg6ftih9NiKF8BCeP4-WQEC7Fo-VcmNozNFsHDbCPp4ryCOBOZ1BYZMs5qBMl_tPaZB_TelNg0TilLVHM_6nqDsEmoAHn9fulA=w586-h640" width="586" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>So, what does the future hold for the Earth's glaciers? </p>
<p>Understanding that moisture transport, not global average temperature, controls glacier growth, suggests they are not in crisis</p>
<p>A return to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation would reverse the retreat of many of the world's glaciers. </p>
<p>Although glacier lengths may shrink, accumulation zones will survive where there is adequate precipitation. </p>
<p>El Nino and La Ninas and other natural oscillations will affect storm tracks causing decadal ebbs and flows of regional glaciers</p>
<p>But the ultimate control will be determined by solar effects on the ITCZ’s latitude and its associated pressure systems. While changes in sunspots and irradiance are unpredictable, the orbital influence of the obliquity cycle suggests the ITCZ will continue to move southward for another 10,000 years causing Little Ice Age-like growth of the world's glaciers. </p>
<p>Up next: part 7: Floods</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-14204822981206928022022-02-07T10:15:00.018-08:002022-02-09T10:11:52.247-08:00Heat waves are 100% Natural<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Watch the video </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><a href="https://youtu.be/eddO6RVZ2CM">HEAT WAVES ARE 100% NATURAL- PART 5: HOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTROL CLIMATE</a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">at </span><a class="style-scope ytcp-video-info" href="https://youtu.be/eddO6RVZ2CM" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: Roboto, Noto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration-line: none; white-space: nowrap;" target="_blank">https://youtu.be/eddO6RVZ2CM</a></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Below is the video's transcript :<br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Welcome everyone</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Heat waves provide the perfect optics for those who want to push climate alarmism arguing CO2 is causing the world to dramatically overheat. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7TBYFtWLgTnPs5yb9hl5EU5sB35u2xBCmxJwAAdWrAMZCgZqd-BvTQl34trUKJxLkwBr7aHGk3MipZH2Bo8zU3kE7ZNfIC4-Fbz6HMNYYNB8I8qC6SrZsQadqA28WkDr7k_g37s70yNNiYsPPZa7ZOM0bT5VmgzEX1JC1n1xpolhRHUvpxZ9Us5s8zw=s558" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="558" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj7TBYFtWLgTnPs5yb9hl5EU5sB35u2xBCmxJwAAdWrAMZCgZqd-BvTQl34trUKJxLkwBr7aHGk3MipZH2Bo8zU3kE7ZNfIC4-Fbz6HMNYYNB8I8qC6SrZsQadqA28WkDr7k_g37s70yNNiYsPPZa7ZOM0bT5VmgzEX1JC1n1xpolhRHUvpxZ9Us5s8zw=s320" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Using uncontested physics and published peer reviewed evidence I will conclusively show heat waves are all natural. So today in part 5 of how pressure systems control climate, I examine how natural shifts in the location and duration of high-pressure systems cause heatwaves. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Various researchers will define heatwaves differently depending on the hypotheses they want to support.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">But the American meteorological organization defines a heat wave as a weather event during which maximum temperatures are 5+ degrees Celsius higher than average on those dates and lasts for 5+ consecutive days</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoZXpaww9qy_tqQFtgpZhQXOKD7oG2j1zt_mmXeuSIs9Jqltzll5TyOI4NsHEGW547AsRd8kt9FO9kGAMurdYBVi97koTWM2B0kpN4DtL4f2qwN-TwadehUFGSIL8nmV7fmgLQOP9BXmvl4UvcfjI1u5Fm15qtx1ajD4AhDB6nuGEY8dj74m_fnl1UCA=s980" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="980" height="413" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjoZXpaww9qy_tqQFtgpZhQXOKD7oG2j1zt_mmXeuSIs9Jqltzll5TyOI4NsHEGW547AsRd8kt9FO9kGAMurdYBVi97koTWM2B0kpN4DtL4f2qwN-TwadehUFGSIL8nmV7fmgLQOP9BXmvl4UvcfjI1u5Fm15qtx1ajD4AhDB6nuGEY8dj74m_fnl1UCA=w640-h413" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Researchers that push a CO2 driven climate crisis, argue that it is the shift in the average global temperature that results in more extreme heat waves and more record high temperatures.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">But that is misinformation. Any honest and critical thinker will readily see the peak in USA heatwaves, as illustrated by the EPA, happened in the 1930s and there is no correlation with the global warming trend.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0OWjKe0ILHA850MBwIFGdLqOGtrE_DRlqW-L7I48VFfTeBKaH-xSUYvLjZPVsZ8YSqyPg9VHIbxNwUlBrFdhykWdLqAumoMkHtFLaI4HfFYlp3HVg6eCsdJxV7-o6F5LsJVfS0oYSXjzmj_BlKU9Ac3wcNYUcv9kqrRx3hMk8us_2WO2ekvtWlZqYgg=s928" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="928" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0OWjKe0ILHA850MBwIFGdLqOGtrE_DRlqW-L7I48VFfTeBKaH-xSUYvLjZPVsZ8YSqyPg9VHIbxNwUlBrFdhykWdLqAumoMkHtFLaI4HfFYlp3HVg6eCsdJxV7-o6F5LsJVfS0oYSXjzmj_BlKU9Ac3wcNYUcv9kqrRx3hMk8us_2WO2ekvtWlZqYgg=w640-h388" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Clearly heatwaves and extreme temperatures are caused by factors other than changes in the global average temperature statistic. Such a false manufactured statistical argument is why Mark Twain's quip that there are” lies, damn lies and statistics” has resonated for over a century.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">To put heat waves and extreme temperatures into perspective we first see that the theoretical maximum ground surface temperature has been estimated to lie between 90 and 100 Celsius or 194 to 212 Fahrenheit. </span></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
The air temperatures used to generate a global average are primarily heated by contact with the earth's solar heated surfaces, air temperatures correlate with ground </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">temperatures but are 30 to 50 degrees Celsius cooler.</span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Based on that difference we can infer the theoretical maximum air temperatures should lie between 50 and 60 Celsius or 122 and 140 Fahrenheit.</span></p><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large; text-align: center;">The science of heatwaves and maximum temperatures have determined 5 basic factors to evaluate any trends</span></h2>
<p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">First, maximum temperatures are determined by the overhead angle of sunlight which is greatest in the tropics, clear skies permit maximum insolation but are greatest in the subtropics under high pressure systems.</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
Second, because air is heated by contact with the ground, changes in surface conditions are very important. Dry surfaces heat to much higher temperatures than </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">moist surfaces without any added solar or greenhouse heating</span></li></ul><div><br /></div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Third temperatures in descending air currents also increase temperature without any added heat energy due to increasing pressure. As witnessed under high pressure systems and foehn winds.</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Fourth changes in mixing can also increase air temperatures without any added solar or greenhouse heating. For example, warm air transported from the Sahara Desert has raised temperatures during Europe’s heatwaves</span></li></ul><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Finally, there is the balance between radiative heating and radiative cooling. Climate crisis narratives suggest increased CO2 slows the escape of infrared heat energy, reducing the rate of cooling and thus warming the earth. But counter-intuitively, outgoing infrared heat energy increases, Due to the dry conditions beneath high pressure systems, thus reducing any greenhouse effect.</span></li></ul><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiF-7SC_h0CJ-iQBqa5ht0KpuHS61CN_K6c39lOcwke-vZTZzU-NNuQ3bCQdvJo53CcS8tOrFeiPSeiSVsW6D-LCYKTu7nZHr2v64-vam04k8uijfMDnrjfouOqVM5HdVSZK-cjpbvb7XG0UvHeyz9eMugjJP1CS1F9MzQ6MDQQ8csy4-ZsT1Oztwmd5g=s970" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="970" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiF-7SC_h0CJ-iQBqa5ht0KpuHS61CN_K6c39lOcwke-vZTZzU-NNuQ3bCQdvJo53CcS8tOrFeiPSeiSVsW6D-LCYKTu7nZHr2v64-vam04k8uijfMDnrjfouOqVM5HdVSZK-cjpbvb7XG0UvHeyz9eMugjJP1CS1F9MzQ6MDQQ8csy4-ZsT1Oztwmd5g=w640-h440" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The most intense solar heating happens in the tropics and least in the polar regions.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
The direct rays of the sun are overhead and concentrated during the northern hemisphere's summer shifting as far north as 23.5 N degrees then traveling to 23.5 S degrees for the southern hemisphere's summer. This swath of latitudinal heating from the most intense sunlight defines the tropics, but due to cloudiness the earth's most extreme temperatures don't happen in the tropics.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">North America’s and also the world's record for the hottest extreme temperature ever measured is </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>56.6 Celsius or 134 Fahrenheit measured in Death Valley located in the sub-tropics at 36 degrees north on July 10, 1913.</b> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">This century old record again refutes any correlation with global average warming trend. It is likely this record has not been broken because it lies close to the theoretical maximum caused by the combineD dynamics previously outlined.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Africa's record maximum is 55 degrees Celsius or 131 Fahrenheit on July 7, 1931, in Tunisia at 32 degrees north.</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Asia's record maximum of 54 degrees Celsius or 129.2 Fahrenheit happened in Israel on June 21, 1942, at 32 degrees north.</b> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">These extreme temperatures all happened within weeks of the summer solstice, during a colder global average temperature, and in the subtropics where dry desert conditions, and cloudless high-pressure systems prevail.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Europe's record maximum happened in Athens Greece on July 1977</b></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>Australia's record of 50.7 Celsius or 123.3 Fahrenheit happened in January 1960 in Oodnadatta Australia</b> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">that claims to be the driest town in the driest state of the driest continent</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Science clearly explains the contribution of dryness to extreme temperatures</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGtKED3BHXo_6iTG7uENTvrjzHaG85dFOGnBkUfVERaQJXHrT9sRTo7wdOSA8RWlb94dRggRMwJuVWrB_n8C5WBe-1XmQdY_NfoULn_xr8TvSv_1ksArV-0P4GJfOYmJ8lomHkY5ZhjMOjIV950uDqqaxckrnA0_xoP3CixSwn2nXR1-93aXYLlNUuRA=s1046" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="798" data-original-width="1046" height="488" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhGtKED3BHXo_6iTG7uENTvrjzHaG85dFOGnBkUfVERaQJXHrT9sRTo7wdOSA8RWlb94dRggRMwJuVWrB_n8C5WBe-1XmQdY_NfoULn_xr8TvSv_1ksArV-0P4GJfOYmJ8lomHkY5ZhjMOjIV950uDqqaxckrnA0_xoP3CixSwn2nXR1-93aXYLlNUuRA=w640-h488" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
Dry soil requires just 0.8 jouleS of energy to raise a gram of dry soil by one degree. </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">In contrast wet soil requires more than twice that energy to raise a gram by one degree.</span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">In addition, over 2200 joules are required to evaporate a gram water without raising its temperature causing evaporative cooling.
Without adding any heat energy from the sun or greenhouse gases, increasing dryness raises local temperatures. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Again, illustrating why temperature change is not a reliable indicator of increased greenhouse warming.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWfvn1nrfGL0kARdY5HMfYgEVHuSfA-lMYZ9MB-W5wj8PCevL2zwxYWhN4SfyCW0EdrpfaTP1lvQ5fKGZWhjtStyASXSbdioLT6LMsEP5eZTZS5w9h3OGOHu5kTkvGsNMtQa1-btGb-QqNgLyK6GSOjnAIKqYMETlqv1x46e7cG2Uu2Xe2cr1glZuNCQ=s792" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="792" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiWfvn1nrfGL0kARdY5HMfYgEVHuSfA-lMYZ9MB-W5wj8PCevL2zwxYWhN4SfyCW0EdrpfaTP1lvQ5fKGZWhjtStyASXSbdioLT6LMsEP5eZTZS5w9h3OGOHu5kTkvGsNMtQa1-btGb-QqNgLyK6GSOjnAIKqYMETlqv1x46e7cG2Uu2Xe2cr1glZuNCQ=w640-h229" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The much higher temperatures measured in big cities is called the urban heat island effect, which amplifies the public's suffering during a heat wave. The urban heat island effect is caused in part by the drying of the landscape as rains are quickly diverted into storm sewers instead of moistening the ground. In addition, the landscape is increasingly covered in asphalt and concrete which takes less energy to heat and holds that heat longer.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Those who push a climate crisis often use this graph of warming temperatures in the USA’s 50 large cities from climate.gov
But to claim that warming trend is due to rising co2 is misinformation that ignores the increasing drying effects</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpjGRJyLFweTLwnebccED0l5NleGwx4vvv0w55ModCEbrs9TXRJCLQZWv8n6vvbrVE5MTXRljc5c2LlIToKHNEsATLxbcqVFNYzehUDDTJ1tHws4TjmcODn2TOeiOEtowR2z7_QT6PJ0FEW48b2fJYwRopb-eoPuXwdSfxLOvvbuw5mc5uFBkam8gLpg=s1310" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1297" data-original-width="1310" height="634" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgpjGRJyLFweTLwnebccED0l5NleGwx4vvv0w55ModCEbrs9TXRJCLQZWv8n6vvbrVE5MTXRljc5c2LlIToKHNEsATLxbcqVFNYzehUDDTJ1tHws4TjmcODn2TOeiOEtowR2z7_QT6PJ0FEW48b2fJYwRopb-eoPuXwdSfxLOvvbuw5mc5uFBkam8gLpg=w640-h634" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Foehn winds are another example of higher temperatures that are not caused by added solar or greenhouse warming, but warm adiabatically solely due to increasing air pressure.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicyj88__WVxb6FqDiRfcoMCqePhEBbUfS8DUrxGQqYK0RBES4El7whAdy9V_4aUrCcxTg-cv8BaWvJMlJeetqyLIwJhSgyYexao3xam5bo8yxFF5uLuFlqbe7Nf6jLWbc7xmOShn5PPhhrgfH7FlsXQzuAatC7tGltUaiFEWUsaEBC9qFFR1V4nb_jAQ=s1000" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="1000" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicyj88__WVxb6FqDiRfcoMCqePhEBbUfS8DUrxGQqYK0RBES4El7whAdy9V_4aUrCcxTg-cv8BaWvJMlJeetqyLIwJhSgyYexao3xam5bo8yxFF5uLuFlqbe7Nf6jLWbc7xmOShn5PPhhrgfH7FlsXQzuAatC7tGltUaiFEWUsaEBC9qFFR1V4nb_jAQ=w640-h250" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Moist air approaching a mountain are forced upwards on the windward side. The release of latent heat from condensing water vapor helps the air rise.
On the leeward side as the air descends it warms to several degrees warmer than on the windward side solely due to increasing pressure.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><b>The record temperature of 18.3 Celsius or 64.9 Fahrenheit for Antarctic happened on February 6, 2020, </b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">much to the delight of the co2 climate crisis crowd.
But this record was caused by a foehn wind descending on the Esperanza base which is located at the tip of the Antarctica peninsula, the continent's most equator-ward location.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjcyMZ6zkrSfrA2f7Lxj-iedPsBckBVhN0lDJIBr60kZ6PwYK_S-Xb3jt5c68Q9ZY7JmZCqnd5XVuZYXxrN6Kpk3FMAJT4CmU4LsnF0FMo-Gh0BNYLrNzG-nJ6CjsuaxKZMitKVxhP9ZCVVlmvYobBgGtLhttPCPnlW403L48SeZOEVA6d1ak2qAm5anQ=s3212" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="847" data-original-width="3212" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjcyMZ6zkrSfrA2f7Lxj-iedPsBckBVhN0lDJIBr60kZ6PwYK_S-Xb3jt5c68Q9ZY7JmZCqnd5XVuZYXxrN6Kpk3FMAJT4CmU4LsnF0FMo-Gh0BNYLrNzG-nJ6CjsuaxKZMitKVxhP9ZCVVlmvYobBgGtLhttPCPnlW403L48SeZOEVA6d1ak2qAm5anQ=w640-h168" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
Depending on the strength and attack angle of the westerly winds, the winds will travel around the peninsula or at other times go up and over the peninsula's </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">mountains. </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The Antarctic record temperature was simply an example natural adiabatic heating.
</span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">High pressure systems are created by dry descending air currents that also heat the air adiabatically the same as foehn winds</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgPpYBDIwIm3NzsJpXtuIzGOZHhMxqRQFm--D2WXvQCPAn1yWn0kiR01PRW7204ARPv1dVe9M-iexLMD4Z3dxFDQlVdd3BmPY3LvbtS5XhB2YNHCL1yYvwDEREkqK9c0HojcEycjhySQ5U2wV5MzRVvdd34wbU3d_lvI2BVmomBD4-eEGbj_3EBrphweg=s1348" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="706" data-original-width="1348" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgPpYBDIwIm3NzsJpXtuIzGOZHhMxqRQFm--D2WXvQCPAn1yWn0kiR01PRW7204ARPv1dVe9M-iexLMD4Z3dxFDQlVdd3BmPY3LvbtS5XhB2YNHCL1yYvwDEREkqK9c0HojcEycjhySQ5U2wV5MzRVvdd34wbU3d_lvI2BVmomBD4-eEGbj_3EBrphweg=w640-h336" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">High pressure systems are almost always associated with a heat wave.
The dry descending air creates clear skies that allow more solar heating. In addition, the adiabatically warmed descending air prevents warm surface air from rising and mixing with cooler air creating a heat dome, analogous to the heating of a car with its windows rolled up.
</span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">With the age of satellites, we can now measure changes in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) while surface weather stations measure incoming solar radiation at the surface. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjWA-iDq5cHchtbDUdN_b0uIxBPFFi4RV6Q9JLfOrWFYJ-eJyM_TYeFUU2Nk1LmVD1upUsH1X_9m7M7DIXf1OH0L8cY0oJaoWj9VaDexpqIValjiPcBzUOneLE3Soo1Jw_6SspvlqAEB3qz2vGmiRy2A7E04Xvu0ug9ZSv7gOSG854J-aQg2afsE4XpQ=s960" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="363" data-original-width="960" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgjWA-iDq5cHchtbDUdN_b0uIxBPFFi4RV6Q9JLfOrWFYJ-eJyM_TYeFUU2Nk1LmVD1upUsH1X_9m7M7DIXf1OH0L8cY0oJaoWj9VaDexpqIValjiPcBzUOneLE3Soo1Jw_6SspvlqAEB3qz2vGmiRy2A7E04Xvu0ug9ZSv7gOSG854J-aQg2afsE4XpQ=w640-h242" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">As illustrated here, during a heatwave in China, the yellow to red colors represent increased downward solar radiation and increased outgoing long-wave radiation measured in watts per meter squared. One watt is equal to one joule of energy per second.
Compared to about just 2 W/m2 of CO2 downward heat, the center of this heat wave here, exhibited an increase of 30 to 40 outgoing watts/m2, suggesting a decreased greenhouse effect during a heat wave due to drier air. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">In fact, scientists using satellite data, look for such increases in outgoing infrared to determine the location, intensity, and extent of heatwaves around the world.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The heating around the equator causes rising air that draws in moisture on the trade winds that converge and rise forming the intertropical convergence zone.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFsz5nsqwclU1tG_0GfotuYxN6_tpe6eBc57RIwQuw9fDdR59HhMnwLkOUBThO4mF2Jg4gl8WMooNlZnnp_Li1ShgESJm0kqU0Gq9rFKa13jV2VowuOxb3GUTkcBF0IImqnSeEuROa2DbS6AHZqHPY7opKQAfI3Jxt-eLzZwg_fvNt9OoHexwk9bDPrQ=s2869" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1457" data-original-width="2869" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjFsz5nsqwclU1tG_0GfotuYxN6_tpe6eBc57RIwQuw9fDdR59HhMnwLkOUBThO4mF2Jg4gl8WMooNlZnnp_Li1ShgESJm0kqU0Gq9rFKa13jV2VowuOxb3GUTkcBF0IImqnSeEuROa2DbS6AHZqHPY7opKQAfI3Jxt-eLzZwg_fvNt9OoHexwk9bDPrQ=w640-h326" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Prevented from rising higher at the tropopause, the winds are now re-directed towards the poles. Those high-altitude winds converge with equator-ward winds forcing air down to the ground.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">This creates a quasi-permanent band of high-pressure systems around the globe centered at about 30 degrees.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Upon reaching the ground descending air is now redirected. Some moving back towards the equator and due to the Coriolis effect form the trade winds and complete the circulation cell known as the Hadley cell.
See part 2 of this series for a discussion on how the Hadley cell creates the world's rainforests and deserts.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Other wind currents are directed northward and due to the Coriolis effect form the westerly winds. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Where these winds converge with winds from the north pole the air is forced upwards forming regions of low pressure.
This dynamic of converging winds forming high- and low-pressure systems can be thought of as a short-wave train</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Furthermore, these regions form the major jet streams that modify the location of these pressure systems</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJM4f58RVs7A2lO9QuwKpB4vJbw1ytT55fzjyOEOn0QQiYxDGAlAQGrjwyvMN4jMvCQ-tq3B-mp-ZF-R9aSfOTJdKwZfnHPgonFbnU-lBgqylRO6Ul_syPydSc7Tc5HBxSVAn63SjWo9_cdD1vNJbSg2BccOM1-Tg-ghi-Bo_x6-GjoA29pV-BU3bMvg=s320" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="320" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJM4f58RVs7A2lO9QuwKpB4vJbw1ytT55fzjyOEOn0QQiYxDGAlAQGrjwyvMN4jMvCQ-tq3B-mp-ZF-R9aSfOTJdKwZfnHPgonFbnU-lBgqylRO6Ul_syPydSc7Tc5HBxSVAn63SjWo9_cdD1vNJbSg2BccOM1-Tg-ghi-Bo_x6-GjoA29pV-BU3bMvg=w640-h454" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">In 2003, 2010 & 2018 Europe experienced heat waves that broke many local temperature records.
All were triggered by drought and high-pressure systems</span></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
According to a peer reviewed paper analyzing the contributing factors Black (2006) also found a regionally intensified ITCZ for the 2003 heatwave. </span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi-P9s4CT8nIu7MW5LtShu72g1nmpICeTNycaQmGWjVOEXpZsvxYwVewGHZ7ELWJTy5sMvayOQT7rkO9oh36Ix-HgAXDOpHRlFeXAJrpU4VLnAp2H7W6Ov4jt9yZ2OvCU-0k3Eil-x0aff6YIzxz8MEIAcapCmS1Z867necsKf3lI75EaMeAW4Z5IpQpA=s1246" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="1246" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi-P9s4CT8nIu7MW5LtShu72g1nmpICeTNycaQmGWjVOEXpZsvxYwVewGHZ7ELWJTy5sMvayOQT7rkO9oh36Ix-HgAXDOpHRlFeXAJrpU4VLnAp2H7W6Ov4jt9yZ2OvCU-0k3Eil-x0aff6YIzxz8MEIAcapCmS1Z867necsKf3lI75EaMeAW4Z5IpQpA=w640-h368" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Here the northward </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">ITCZ is represented in green as reduced outgoing heat waves, which </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">shifted high-pressure systems further north, illustrated here in red, representing increased outgoing heat waves</span><p> </p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">In addition, both Black and Sparnocchia (2006) reported "hot dry air was pumped into western Europe from the Sahara"</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgCJCqtlfIytE6rLREjpZ7AwHq3LFa1OU_H8K-fDAevNh8D_b4b6vU8swavRTpP8Z6q_seg-6XW-Ae8dAkgSaHO4B-vnWIpECq21zDOS-t7bHQlhkZ6YQ0JjhaI4DoqLCgc-YhwshLLb7U5zy2I8NJsT_HWDO5tKwrhhdYl8zyC5xdMlGWUCUx7hdftuA=s610" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="610" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgCJCqtlfIytE6rLREjpZ7AwHq3LFa1OU_H8K-fDAevNh8D_b4b6vU8swavRTpP8Z6q_seg-6XW-Ae8dAkgSaHO4B-vnWIpECq21zDOS-t7bHQlhkZ6YQ0JjhaI4DoqLCgc-YhwshLLb7U5zy2I8NJsT_HWDO5tKwrhhdYl8zyC5xdMlGWUCUx7hdftuA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">El Ninos and La Ninas can shift the location of intense convection of the ITCZ.
During a La Nina, intense convection is located over the western pacific warm pool which induces a wave train of sinking air and high pressure over Africa and also over the eastern Pacific, which then induces low-pressure and rain over the Atlantic as seen here.
</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">(I also suggest seeing part 4 discussing how La Nina’s increase the strength of the warm pool causing global warming.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Intense La Nina convection further triggers a wave train of high- and low-pressure systems that stretches across the Atlantic into Europe and Asia</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkxhcY77s643cV9ZgQKqu2htJjoP8FZRXc1iG10eSc9-k1QJQiiEHwC2ewMXwGO2HjVlKf0HugBwfi3gwXi6Pdhg69TnlkpPYOsK3yV3eUPny-ZS69WX-e5uVSvyX_UCfLKVYhbgMWSPmsmYT_t8biE5gb43TitFwQTO_nDYs9z6NpmTWZzQVguCs2Hg=s1424" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="1424" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhkxhcY77s643cV9ZgQKqu2htJjoP8FZRXc1iG10eSc9-k1QJQiiEHwC2ewMXwGO2HjVlKf0HugBwfi3gwXi6Pdhg69TnlkpPYOsK3yV3eUPny-ZS69WX-e5uVSvyX_UCfLKVYhbgMWSPmsmYT_t8biE5gb43TitFwQTO_nDYs9z6NpmTWZzQVguCs2Hg=w640-h242" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">A map of anomalously wet and dry weather across the globe during a La Nina demonstrates its dominant global teleconnections.
It was a La Nina wave train that brought dry weather over the USA’s Great Plains and, with that dryness further amplified by landscape degradation, generated the Dust Bowl and the USA’s period of greatest heat waves.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjdkPwWFwpEjpySMZF_tuf22QViRxt6W9J5UXAFQv5N1sOIAOy25Zaxje_DsEsnQ3785J1886HaRcqyIt9I-7kfWeWxWq10UBUBaQRdlPwUGg5fy0bj306j-4JLE0ikFrABRk34NjDaVieYMuH5wciyUE3reeoTYu4YntFKcE5dF__s6LKBs414eFdQvQ=s960" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="960" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjdkPwWFwpEjpySMZF_tuf22QViRxt6W9J5UXAFQv5N1sOIAOy25Zaxje_DsEsnQ3785J1886HaRcqyIt9I-7kfWeWxWq10UBUBaQRdlPwUGg5fy0bj306j-4JLE0ikFrABRk34NjDaVieYMuH5wciyUE3reeoTYu4YntFKcE5dF__s6LKBs414eFdQvQ=w640-h336" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">During an El Nino, the warm water and center of intense convection moves eastward. Sometimes it reaches all the way to the coast of the Americas, and sometimes only to the central Pacific. This induces varying wave trains with a high pressure over Indonesia causing reduced Asian monsoons and drought. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The 1997-98 El Nino brought floods to California and simultaneously extreme drought and a deadly heat wave to Indonesia.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj3KuNE6MJHO3ijz-ebq_qQOKB9GK8kS4iQEtC_DS84yLNOiP4oicISfcIoWoCdXVr4JC6n3S_3uzuV8ibq0dGtbWc-nfegpIt7Fhz-wNaGoQwKmldWlseq_fss6zSuXTOIHi5B9ISGKqeE9h0LMiD_rWO00MGX9SbkoTkG4L3vz2y0r2zP18MiWXVSPA=s610" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="610" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj3KuNE6MJHO3ijz-ebq_qQOKB9GK8kS4iQEtC_DS84yLNOiP4oicISfcIoWoCdXVr4JC6n3S_3uzuV8ibq0dGtbWc-nfegpIt7Fhz-wNaGoQwKmldWlseq_fss6zSuXTOIHi5B9ISGKqeE9h0LMiD_rWO00MGX9SbkoTkG4L3vz2y0r2zP18MiWXVSPA=w640-h320" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Scientists also determined, since the 1960s El Nino events have amplified heat waves across China</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">El Nino wave trains also trigger anomalously wet and dry regions around the world but in different regions than La Nina and neutral years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjq3hR08AppxYf_uaAft_e3QiPzTGOcqQ9yhF1EHst4Ew5ltFwRGb_QfsjLmk6jzdrlSaCQbcq4jbpVjVd1ufWdRP-CenXbf2X9L65ZsXef4hzofIXngHFdv2mqA3lxCSbF2TCev6jSb4lFYkZXkGJlcvsrNSpuY0yfSQBnb9t3yxWoSGkaxttCUg_KjA=s960" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="960" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjq3hR08AppxYf_uaAft_e3QiPzTGOcqQ9yhF1EHst4Ew5ltFwRGb_QfsjLmk6jzdrlSaCQbcq4jbpVjVd1ufWdRP-CenXbf2X9L65ZsXef4hzofIXngHFdv2mqA3lxCSbF2TCev6jSb4lFYkZXkGJlcvsrNSpuY0yfSQBnb9t3yxWoSGkaxttCUg_KjA=w640-h336" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As Chase (2006) and other scientists have come to realize
“natural variability in the form of El Nino & volcanic eruptions is of much greater importance for causing extreme regional temperature anomalies, t</span><span style="font-family: georgia;">han a simple upward [warming] trend in time" </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">The Madden-Julian Oscillation begins with intense convection over the western Indian ocean warm pool that induces descending air and a high pressure further to the east.
Then over the course of 60 to 90 days the low- and high-pressure systems move in tandem across the pacific until it reaches the cooler waters upwelled in the eastern pacific</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiKtKvrC_BQLWZ1UuPP-vrkhfQEIAkCHul1N9nnT6V88zxXGyYh3p9oW1d_VKf0jSO5N4lxXVF-8PZ22IGX5meEr9goL1RJJgfSNJKFIyWHxbY87WXs41KarQx3y8Uv2H31FJ2jOcMbYBafY0sMSejmC7vNIQOabEaR_H31ukucsdV3D8LWBjvF_YMA2A=s1000" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="1000" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiKtKvrC_BQLWZ1UuPP-vrkhfQEIAkCHul1N9nnT6V88zxXGyYh3p9oW1d_VKf0jSO5N4lxXVF-8PZ22IGX5meEr9goL1RJJgfSNJKFIyWHxbY87WXs41KarQx3y8Uv2H31FJ2jOcMbYBafY0sMSejmC7vNIQOabEaR_H31ukucsdV3D8LWBjvF_YMA2A=w640-h434" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The Madden-Julian Oscillation likewise creates wave trains
such as this one causing high-pressure and a heat wave over the coast of South America. The interaction of all these varying wave trains makes for complex weather patterns</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDrrZDJ8tV4EJ_AdXb7jVR7kTA08ABJMC2urSdMCsgVXKvS447A8rY2MDCOk-eNaEfz1YPnWZWnZNzMlxnZpWB-WG3qnUwmJmbRC1knYx4gdaCgU2RqrLyC4rGCsrdnkqPDN4Rm7UGsc3Pm0ZgiDSlmuNRR39TUKGwFAGIRBjWrycknA9tZXezsfl2YQ=s950" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="950" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgDrrZDJ8tV4EJ_AdXb7jVR7kTA08ABJMC2urSdMCsgVXKvS447A8rY2MDCOk-eNaEfz1YPnWZWnZNzMlxnZpWB-WG3qnUwmJmbRC1knYx4gdaCgU2RqrLyC4rGCsrdnkqPDN4Rm7UGsc3Pm0ZgiDSlmuNRR39TUKGwFAGIRBjWrycknA9tZXezsfl2YQ=w640-h390" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Poleward wave trains from El Ninos, La Ninas and the Madden Julian Oscillation will affect the Arctic Oscillation during which the polar jet stream shifts from strong west to east zonal flow in its positive phase, switching to a more wavy flow in its negative phase which disrupts the eastward flow with more northward and southward flows.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjTX4iUYeqE-P8x7EasS5WCZX8Ox0sEiXAEfQ8FZjNki2Z8__vOvuP9dylqvfJJB4OWbTd-DyRtQ60gwyW2tIaiwz4ZGMHW_GmAWoj_IUb_7MC_Ws1-VcH0GpYQM4fvVlqEcgTDBv_NIQ9oSd6bO9bjUb8f0NXw8h_zlJSKS-vAkJWzAXzPlmS9bP4X2Q=s2850" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2360" data-original-width="2850" height="530" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjTX4iUYeqE-P8x7EasS5WCZX8Ox0sEiXAEfQ8FZjNki2Z8__vOvuP9dylqvfJJB4OWbTd-DyRtQ60gwyW2tIaiwz4ZGMHW_GmAWoj_IUb_7MC_Ws1-VcH0GpYQM4fvVlqEcgTDBv_NIQ9oSd6bO9bjUb8f0NXw8h_zlJSKS-vAkJWzAXzPlmS9bP4X2Q=w640-h530" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Complex interactions with multiple wave trains affects the Arctic Oscillation causing its phases to switch from month to month. Such monthly phase changes are evidence of natural variability that refutes theories arguing the wavy jet stream is driven by less arctic ice and a climate change warming trend. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">During February 2021's valentines week, a wavy flow brought cold arctic air southward & deep into the heart of Texas, causing a deep freeze and major societal disruptions.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Just months earlier in June 2020 a very strong zonal flow of the positive phase prevented cold arctic air from moving south, which would normally moderate the summer temperatures around the Arctic Circle. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5gVwHfd7NfZ_rNj33JhHI9C5XYqGLO3G2PyVv_Zd2AUP4onZoAAnR3iwQjt1bcQ0kq-e_9tWnvTo172WwfdRfPleqLGGGw8_puDW1QObHxVR1YShlMVsbsLFP_N8B7Z_vp4QGP8i92jLqbVUl4Jc_KFaqKA9kyfemJ-gwj08a_lQOFNI3jbmP9tK2xg=s2878" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1847" data-original-width="2878" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh5gVwHfd7NfZ_rNj33JhHI9C5XYqGLO3G2PyVv_Zd2AUP4onZoAAnR3iwQjt1bcQ0kq-e_9tWnvTo172WwfdRfPleqLGGGw8_puDW1QObHxVR1YShlMVsbsLFP_N8B7Z_vp4QGP8i92jLqbVUl4Jc_KFaqKA9kyfemJ-gwj08a_lQOFNI3jbmP9tK2xg=w640-h410" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Accordingly, on June 20th, 2020, Verkhoyansk Russia, just north of the Arctic Circle, reached its all-time maximum temperature record of 38 Celsius, or 100.4 Fahrenheit, to also become the hottest recorded temperature inside the arctic circle </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Overland (2020) rightfully concluded this Siberian heat wave and extreme temperature was an example of random weather.
But despite contradictory evidence, Overland also dutifully suggested climate change and Arctic Amplification had made the heat wave worse.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Overland ignored that for 30 years prior to this extreme weather event, Verkhoyansk's June temperatures demonstrated a cooling trend. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Furthermore, the previous record high temperature deeper inside the Arctic Circle was just 0.2 degrees Celsius cooler, measuring 37.8 Celsius. or just 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit cooler at 100 F and set in 1915 at Fort Yukon, Alaska. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Just a 0.2 degree increase over one hundred years is, in reality, evidence of an extremely small long-term warming trend due to any Arctic Amplification.
And given how sparsely populated it is inside the arctic circle, it is highly likely many other Arctic regions have also experienced similar warm temperatures due to the Arctic Oscillation's jet stream barrier preventing southward flows of cold air; temperatures that were simply not recorded.
Nonetheless the UN News, in support of its IPCC’s climate crisis narrative, characterized this weather event as a "disturbing high temperature record".
So be scared people!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPuvhJu7ZIXMIFcWXbCpBTYDtmdAJMfBKBuVhroW0DdAS0I5xwzu7o9n7ryvIiGBpvOw6GmMG4byOaUgOufxm0dWQR7pXnvZqk73DQLgKttNWZoTJGM1oEDZI3z2ef3UUoHwtH0YpxoxzrFUkusNw4jbCXULm6aPSsNUkMEB5FR94QIJyCIIIrLeUFJg=s3446" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2002" data-original-width="3446" height="409" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjPuvhJu7ZIXMIFcWXbCpBTYDtmdAJMfBKBuVhroW0DdAS0I5xwzu7o9n7ryvIiGBpvOw6GmMG4byOaUgOufxm0dWQR7pXnvZqk73DQLgKttNWZoTJGM1oEDZI3z2ef3UUoHwtH0YpxoxzrFUkusNw4jbCXULm6aPSsNUkMEB5FR94QIJyCIIIrLeUFJg=w640-h409" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
The North Atlantic Oscillation is the regional expression of the Arctic Oscillation and similarly bounces between a wavy jet stream in its negative phase and a strong west to east zonal wind in its positive phase, and varying from month to month.
And again, it is a measure of natural weather variability independent of climate change but causing climate related changes.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">
As published by Mysak (1990), interactions between El Ninos and the jet stream increased waviness that caused sea ice to expand in Baffin Bay to the west of Greenland </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">where the jet's southward flow brought colder air. Simultaneously it caused sea ice reduction to the east of Greenland caused by the wavy jet's northward flow of warmer air. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj50U1RGudGi-DlL38ZdGxKVn7NkxTLPoVDHP_JqnFrwCabsHWjspXH-0agcNR0azUzh6MtXpCs7OaU8JSUg-yal-ILuMKZfbLVjVqDRIWc9nUdco3Jygyx8ssjfeOc2U2aN6rKy3NleN1jnrgi2eN1bqMBe-ZzMWH_QVeZLyMZrVD89DL8IdPIG_h8QA=s4253" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1466" data-original-width="4253" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj50U1RGudGi-DlL38ZdGxKVn7NkxTLPoVDHP_JqnFrwCabsHWjspXH-0agcNR0azUzh6MtXpCs7OaU8JSUg-yal-ILuMKZfbLVjVqDRIWc9nUdco3Jygyx8ssjfeOc2U2aN6rKy3NleN1jnrgi2eN1bqMBe-ZzMWH_QVeZLyMZrVD89DL8IdPIG_h8QA=w640-h220" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">Wavy jet streams also slow down the west to east migration of storms and the high-pressure systems that are typically observed in daily weather patterns.
That enables blocking high pressure systems to sit over a given region for weeks causing long-term heat waves. A blocking high-pressure system enabled the lengthy 2010 Russian heat wave, a</span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">nd a blocking high pressure system enabled the 2019 European heat wave.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaXh8GqPMCaOsaEdBCNzF98QznWZ-XNUNmAnu35hjuUI33TX8pO-6nGSHPsRAgJNg81yHMvaUoZ33UrzVJdJ11PpYOFzdvVpMxqeA-kxIaaX8mYWfQmhbCirZGzPGP28MEOxGLUrqEUChyBQuQxi3qHTX1TTqBZ0ZASESX10BH0Ilt-F6ktzZcAahlEg=s498" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="498" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiaXh8GqPMCaOsaEdBCNzF98QznWZ-XNUNmAnu35hjuUI33TX8pO-6nGSHPsRAgJNg81yHMvaUoZ33UrzVJdJ11PpYOFzdvVpMxqeA-kxIaaX8mYWfQmhbCirZGzPGP28MEOxGLUrqEUChyBQuQxi3qHTX1TTqBZ0ZASESX10BH0Ilt-F6ktzZcAahlEg=w640-h386" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Looking at northern hemisphere temperature anomalies during the Russian 2010 heat wave, we see a quasi-stationary wave train with a hot, dry high-pressure system centered over western Russia causing a month and a half of extremely hot temperatures, a colder low pressure sits over central Russia and a warm high pressure over eastern Russia and cooler temperatures in the north pacific</span></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
Randall dole is an expert on blocking high pressure systems and concluded the 2010 Russian heat wave was "mainly due to natural internal atmospheric variability" that causes blocking high pressure systems and heat waves seen in red, to form every few years in the region while dry land surfaces amplified the 2010 heat</span><p></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
Hauser (2016) reported "dry soil moisture alone increased the risk of severe heat 6-fold"</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgmX8dbtd9t78_HMiL7tA-ZexltbGUB3zwmL3tJCIFaDW2V9hauD8GvzRmGBp0RYAx-o5BTIxwxF_n6-IERrepiaNwhOFIdte6BTu5EfKMV_YvuQsLIXNAAXvGa6EONoiL3yM41W_KeezVUWCH3LxX47hiq-roNnR4h6BZentdtMCfLm7Qo_f_5ByjjjA=s886" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="886" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgmX8dbtd9t78_HMiL7tA-ZexltbGUB3zwmL3tJCIFaDW2V9hauD8GvzRmGBp0RYAx-o5BTIxwxF_n6-IERrepiaNwhOFIdte6BTu5EfKMV_YvuQsLIXNAAXvGa6EONoiL3yM41W_KeezVUWCH3LxX47hiq-roNnR4h6BZentdtMCfLm7Qo_f_5ByjjjA=w640-h434" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Due to the temperature contrasts between the land and ocean and western USA mountain ranges, the north-east pacific is also a region where a wavy jet and blocking high pressure systems frequently form, bringing drought and heat waves to western north America.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEitgCxkVai37f_W0gp0UNB6PmuLxhJbdIxRsSNSjlJF8VhdVrYiN-3_tjvwsXwuIsWl9WWq9W8LLTfd8u3jnA9IPHT2xzMeFfIewIOHmysdvsYDO_v_VPScZq8SBiiNkHZLvShKjzlMK-S182U9gilAICYbX2eVtbnxsgPjdiCthI2FKkh1qRPNlqtfXQ=s2736" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1815" data-original-width="2736" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEitgCxkVai37f_W0gp0UNB6PmuLxhJbdIxRsSNSjlJF8VhdVrYiN-3_tjvwsXwuIsWl9WWq9W8LLTfd8u3jnA9IPHT2xzMeFfIewIOHmysdvsYDO_v_VPScZq8SBiiNkHZLvShKjzlMK-S182U9gilAICYbX2eVtbnxsgPjdiCthI2FKkh1qRPNlqtfXQ=w640-h424" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Again, looking at temperature anomalies across north America, we see it is part of a wave train with the hot blocking high pressure system centered over Oregon, Washington and western Canada, a cool low-pressure system sitting over central USA and Canada, warm high pressure over northeast America and cooler temperatures over the north Atlantic</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHeEwoHqQoa7zBhMQPOxi7IkLNVILgSrFW_NdG9XS9AiStezo7Uot9P5AhOpV56AQmOlzDrgtVRcv0ZJHiMHSt2gKb5FkbXDoMS-vGnqP3-SMBb3qctKhAy3oY8P1xuGUjFO17RRp8mhrXCjuh_5DyJtBbRpEKiEU6D0cNc9bFh2elWWq1Ut8HxaU8cw=s1386" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="460" data-original-width="1386" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHeEwoHqQoa7zBhMQPOxi7IkLNVILgSrFW_NdG9XS9AiStezo7Uot9P5AhOpV56AQmOlzDrgtVRcv0ZJHiMHSt2gKb5FkbXDoMS-vGnqP3-SMBb3qctKhAy3oY8P1xuGUjFO17RRp8mhrXCjuh_5DyJtBbRpEKiEU6D0cNc9bFh2elWWq1Ut8HxaU8cw=w640-h212" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">The 45.5 degree Celsius temperature in the town of Lytton British Columbia set a new record for Canada, but just barely as the old Canadian record was 45 degrees flat set in 1937.
</span></p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">
And although Oregon saw temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, it was still cooler than Oregon’s record heat of 48.3 Celsius set in 1898.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQd49O8nPhnyVYDcGTKuDIPM9XypH2Ty1R6nso14s58YCWSKKNnfEYLGV2fRG9Q-q-5ASUJXKSqS1AeysDV0Enh3fsnZ2L6-TkxTgK3j3LMIIMq31N7Q9mTgRNV2rYKiFB66-EqXQtYZCyz27ItZcWR1eoMktQWGFwtKLkNrm0hGNJy2zO-fZSvXeZFQ=s3602" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="3602" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQd49O8nPhnyVYDcGTKuDIPM9XypH2Ty1R6nso14s58YCWSKKNnfEYLGV2fRG9Q-q-5ASUJXKSqS1AeysDV0Enh3fsnZ2L6-TkxTgK3j3LMIIMq31N7Q9mTgRNV2rYKiFB66-EqXQtYZCyz27ItZcWR1eoMktQWGFwtKLkNrm0hGNJy2zO-fZSvXeZFQ=w640-h144" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Climate crisis narratives currently bombarding the public consistently ignore a wealth of science in order to focus blame for heat waves on CO2 global warming! </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Crisis narratives ignore the hotter extremes in our cooler past. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">They ignore t</span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">he high-pressure systems created by wave train dynamic</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Climate crises narratives ignore high pressure system dynamics of </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"> 1) </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">clearer skies and increased solar heating </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">2) </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-large;">drier surfaces that raise the risk of heat waves 6-fold and more </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">3) adiabatic heating that warms temperatures without any added heat energy </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">4) and the transport of warmer air into cooler regions</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnkfshpRm_rdKSq7VpOw00RT4vcK7S-A4d1OABBOE_eehTWewFQW734GCOyNMlVwHjujuOtMYgi4e_GckdskDKq2inQBl5WA0UMNryE5vbbHnToH6dXP8OYBsCgJn0giEjG-l0Q7JlyHVBAcU1rt7XHnRlWAPMIWFKQhXw9Hph2KPmFPwqNU_8Sbjavw=s4354" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1425" data-original-width="4354" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnkfshpRm_rdKSq7VpOw00RT4vcK7S-A4d1OABBOE_eehTWewFQW734GCOyNMlVwHjujuOtMYgi4e_GckdskDKq2inQBl5WA0UMNryE5vbbHnToH6dXP8OYBsCgJn0giEjG-l0Q7JlyHVBAcU1rt7XHnRlWAPMIWFKQhXw9Hph2KPmFPwqNU_8Sbjavw=w640-h210" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;"><br /></span><p></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">"Attribution science" is a newly created so-called "science" that appears to be just a rubber stamping of the climate crisis narratives as their analyses never fully account for all the contributing factors as good science must, preferring to push a meaningless statistic that a higher average temperature means more extreme weather.
It clearly is misinformation</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">So up next
Next: part 6 - How pressure systems control growing and shrinking glaciers </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Until then .....</span></p><p>
</p><p></p></div></div></div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5456713316106195869.post-32577640869221654482022-01-22T00:39:00.039-08:002022-01-22T09:27:28.309-08:00HOW GLOBAL WARMING IS DRIVEN BY THE PACIFIC WARM POOL, LA NINA & ITCZ: AN ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY<p style="text-align: center;"> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMH_K8IF-1s&t=1s" target="_blank">An Alternative Climate Change Theory</a></p><p style="text-align: center;">Please watch the video at</p><p style="text-align: center;"><span face="Roboto, Noto, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #065fd4; font-size: 15px; text-align: start; white-space: nowrap;">https://youtu.be/IMH_K8IF-1s</span></p><p style="text-align: center;">This is PART 4: HOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTROL CLIMATE </p><p style="text-align: center;">all earlier videos at</p><p style="text-align: center;">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7XNHEz2QCJ_Phf2mvDFk0Q/videos</p><p style="text-align: center;">The transcript for this video is below</p><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhM7icmAhHbnyDNwWNASG2-aFHCn-u8bj2eKrEJ4Z2b1sFLeYRmavX_faa0vWJzWMEeJrTEIi8ljqIqCQkyW1-LrZoNRXuhGBg8IQyklWissK1mOY2Ejc5mQfa5_wySBTiT-7OFHi7UQktQ9jtKb8Vf3ds2dzXXCFgf8Zam4wtRNUPCr6nFGtv0Fvqzzg=s844" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="844" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhM7icmAhHbnyDNwWNASG2-aFHCn-u8bj2eKrEJ4Z2b1sFLeYRmavX_faa0vWJzWMEeJrTEIi8ljqIqCQkyW1-LrZoNRXuhGBg8IQyklWissK1mOY2Ejc5mQfa5_wySBTiT-7OFHi7UQktQ9jtKb8Vf3ds2dzXXCFgf8Zam4wtRNUPCr6nFGtv0Fvqzzg=w400-h230" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p>
<p>Welcome back everyone.</p>
<p>Surprising to many, climate change over the past 10 thousand years has acted completely opposite of what the CO2 hypotheses predicted.</p>
<p>So here in part 4 of my educational video series, I present a much-needed alternative hypothesis that is 100% supported by evidence over the past 10,000 years. I call it the dynamic warm pool, La Niña, Intertropical Convergence Zone hypothesis, or just the Warm Pool Theory for short. </p>
<p>As Rosenthal 2016 has argued, it only requires very small changes in solar heating.</p>
<p>The earth's average temperature is a balance between heating from absorbed solar energy and the rate of cooling as energy is radiated back to space.</p><p></p>
<p>The warm pool theory argues ocean dynamics determine the earth's heat storage and heat ventilation and that controls the earth’s rate of cooling.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiAbQ-z-pew_wVfrmnB7e8tlU-sKgP-CdiNgvjLzzf8d4oFF7u_nDPGlL0h3w3Juo8ZkBpY_ug0YVlFPVeqhr9mqSXWlBQ3hWktUKRlEI_qh4YCAw6Saqw5sfcDWMKIrJ9FYA3E81bP9SMizOAq0xjrCJuE0EsCKeDERb3HlDM5_kHOKd6RTnaApDnavA=s864" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="864" data-original-width="812" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiAbQ-z-pew_wVfrmnB7e8tlU-sKgP-CdiNgvjLzzf8d4oFF7u_nDPGlL0h3w3Juo8ZkBpY_ug0YVlFPVeqhr9mqSXWlBQ3hWktUKRlEI_qh4YCAw6Saqw5sfcDWMKIrJ9FYA3E81bP9SMizOAq0xjrCJuE0EsCKeDERb3HlDM5_kHOKd6RTnaApDnavA=w376-h400" width="376" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>The function of the warm pool is analogous to a home’s hot water heater and determines how much heat reaches the rest of the world. When a home's hot water heater is fully charged, then there's adequate hot water for every sink, dishwasher, and shower. But drain that hot water heater and you suffer a cold shower. Warmer water gradually returns as the hot water heater recharges.</p>
<p>Likewise, the Little Ice Age drained the warm pool. Now our current warming trend is simply the net effect of a recharging warm pool.</p>
<p>Because oceans can store huge amounts of heat, but the atmosphere cannot, and because the upper 10 feet of the world's oceans contain more heat than the entire atmosphere, solar driven ocean dynamics are truly the climate control knob.
The warm pool theory explains the past 10,000 years of climate change, an explanation that CO2 driven climate models have repeatedly failed to account for.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyCl3IToBFIFK12IA6SdAt-htsepgjApctIp-bUS0fyA7BQ_oabCJyebnQXcS8kkobjiF_-4DkPvnaRNpzli5Ahc8wRtum1aF_fCyPsXf4AOE93pORL9JMrcgkhaIttx2pbSA_Epppnh0JhlkCDUlDY9Hx7GiW_fAESqSJ5QFp_KGIENuEIuAhQ6Rdaw=s700" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="700" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgyCl3IToBFIFK12IA6SdAt-htsepgjApctIp-bUS0fyA7BQ_oabCJyebnQXcS8kkobjiF_-4DkPvnaRNpzli5Ahc8wRtum1aF_fCyPsXf4AOE93pORL9JMrcgkhaIttx2pbSA_Epppnh0JhlkCDUlDY9Hx7GiW_fAESqSJ5QFp_KGIENuEIuAhQ6Rdaw=w400-h260" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>The Indo-Pacific warm pool is often called the heat engine of the world. It is defined by waters that are 28ºC or 82ºF or warmer, and is primarily located in the western Pacific as well as the eastern Indian Ocean</p>
<p>The intense convection over the warm pool drives the region's Hadley circulation and transports heat via the atmosphere from the tropics towards the poles.</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEikDUQZQmRcJf3xD_sE8loaRNShi9r8SmLzVwwriOJ5vCofA4OKbb_zs8IYqt7Mdo8PeMerilkACRUilpQXGJmLx-pH0LlGrdMPIPyOCtnALyvPW9sk12a6FSNF_9xXmTGeDM2TxgGzAmtC01jEaixB76t1sFFH7J75l1IZ3yyAoH9tz265xO0T_VZHDg=s756" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="756" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEikDUQZQmRcJf3xD_sE8loaRNShi9r8SmLzVwwriOJ5vCofA4OKbb_zs8IYqt7Mdo8PeMerilkACRUilpQXGJmLx-pH0LlGrdMPIPyOCtnALyvPW9sk12a6FSNF_9xXmTGeDM2TxgGzAmtC01jEaixB76t1sFFH7J75l1IZ3yyAoH9tz265xO0T_VZHDg=w400-h296" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>Convection requires a minimum ocean surface temperature of 26ºC, and widespread deep convection requires 28ºc or more. Smaller warm pools will generate less convection and thus less global. Warming.</p>
<p>In addition, the strength of the warm pool also determines how much warm water is transported from the tropics to the arctic via several dynamics that integrate into the global conveyor belt.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4-kpv7OEXx2cEOc6Ka8K1ix3LcqZZ4O-telrAsNgPmRZlqfbQ_JiVs5afqkI0_8OCAsL25VW8wZT5YPKoweTWO-KXsRAAsmSrpQq16uQlIVL3ZbcCfNMQ1SLNwOqcLngXHUiYLSJgBIU_1Pu8_uINmYO41A7o2UuTrVOkHbgiMUeP5OU9yfPoRbpf4g=s1140" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="1140" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh4-kpv7OEXx2cEOc6Ka8K1ix3LcqZZ4O-telrAsNgPmRZlqfbQ_JiVs5afqkI0_8OCAsL25VW8wZT5YPKoweTWO-KXsRAAsmSrpQq16uQlIVL3ZbcCfNMQ1SLNwOqcLngXHUiYLSJgBIU_1Pu8_uINmYO41A7o2UuTrVOkHbgiMUeP5OU9yfPoRbpf4g=w400-h238" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span face="Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #030303; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">(One point I didn't emphasize enough in this video but am adding here, is as the re-charging of the warm pool increases heat in the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, and that heat gets transported into the Arctic, it creates a positive temperature feedback that melts more Arctic sea ice which allows the great quantities of heat stored in the Arctic Ocean to more readily ventilate. It is that short term ventilation of heat that has biased the global average temperature. Like an El Nino event, that heat ventilation paradoxically cools the ocean while warming the air yet this "dynamical warming" is falsely attributed to radiative heating from rising CO2. </span><div><span face="Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #030303; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div><span face="Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #030303; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">There are 4 previous videos that discuss heat transport into the Arctic, the first video is at </span><span face="Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #030303; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNT7oB53pRY&t=88s. </span><div><span face="Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #030303; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div><span face="Roboto, Arial, sans-serif" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; color: #030303; font-size: 14px; white-space: pre-wrap;">And all 4 can be found at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7XNHEz2QCJ_Phf2mvDFk0Q/videos)</span><p><br /></p><p>It is well established that on average the tropics receive far more solar energy (represented by the blue curve) than the tropics radiate back to space (represented by the red curve).</p>
<p>That's because significant tropical heat is transported to the poles where it is radiated back to space.
That transported heat also warms the poles, which become much warmer than by solar radiation alone. Thus, a stronger warm pool generates a higher global average temperature by transporting heat across the globe via convection and the ocean conveyor belt.</p><p><br /></p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgeLUGEpo583KAXGNH6zhdMgZosho-pgh2kvu-wFzahtei32dsARi8prtIky8cf2tox41Gn6Z-vf4jC7slQWDVdzdlewdyHQCzmhbghRRVjsbXF1kLG90-JZBos8AQWHEzNn6o80VdJIiyIZv9STfL5d7llSaQo4H3KALx5etZLz_bOm5uUmJ2U-Rkz5g=s702" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="702" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgeLUGEpo583KAXGNH6zhdMgZosho-pgh2kvu-wFzahtei32dsARi8prtIky8cf2tox41Gn6Z-vf4jC7slQWDVdzdlewdyHQCzmhbghRRVjsbXF1kLG90-JZBos8AQWHEzNn6o80VdJIiyIZv9STfL5d7llSaQo4H3KALx5etZLz_bOm5uUmJ2U-Rkz5g=w400-h308" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Several peer-reviewed papers have examined how the warm pool has changed since the last glacial maximum. The illustration here is from dang 2020.</p>
<p>Despite low CO2 concentrations, temperatures of the warm pool began heating up 25,000 years ago and peaked about 10,000 years ago in a period known as the early Holocene.</p>
<p>Then for the past 10,000 years the oceans cooled until a slight warming trend began over the recent 300 years</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyFP-lOiKSwguj8MhKl4VEvC7oY9v4roPziZDhIA7kYZggve6-KUTfeAMM8zbR8tauOGe_70DJTgs8ezqzABV0Ea0JfmERFeSsgiXXpeIwSCVsqsPxwiZafLsoeo12LSsEuwoL99MqUXGD1_cCnLCic059Te_qHBL3IygR8-TfwzYnNNj-gIxf-loiFw=s2310" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2310" data-original-width="2181" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyFP-lOiKSwguj8MhKl4VEvC7oY9v4roPziZDhIA7kYZggve6-KUTfeAMM8zbR8tauOGe_70DJTgs8ezqzABV0Ea0JfmERFeSsgiXXpeIwSCVsqsPxwiZafLsoeo12LSsEuwoL99MqUXGD1_cCnLCic059Te_qHBL3IygR8-TfwzYnNNj-gIxf-loiFw=w604-h640" width="604" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>In contrast, sea surface temperatures and the global average temperature lagged the warm pool warming,</p>
Suggesting it is deep ocean warming that drive atmospheric warming.
<p>The sun's Milankovitch orbital cycles of obliquity and precession seem to correlate well with the warm pool's long term temperature trends but can’t explain the last few hundred years. Those orbital cycles do not add to the earth's annual insolation. The peak of those cycles in the early Holocene did cause warmer northern hemisphere summers but were balanced by colder winters. In addition, if precession drives global temperatures, our current temperatures should be as cold as they were 22,000 years ago. I introduced the mechanics of these cycles, in part 3 "how the sun and the ITCZ controlled climate and civilization collapses"</p>
<p>Cooling of the Holocene warm pool can be explained by the ITCZ's southward migration that increases El Niño events which ventilate and drain warm pool heat.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTd4XbJ_IDChaoOEdXriQ-mAtP_2lYq6ealakzKNT-Jl_HSEL1jFRxmnqneV4Ho-mVXcBpbNWFrhhyyb5IKIzFyeX19w8r3ubYxpA2_nvTTxffmzz4buwn4_CrwcDxuFcqZIvmHFGjq_56g8sy42KAeNAv8SkeXGEAB5drb6k_SUYVI8QB4eqkfRMy5g=s890" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="890" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTd4XbJ_IDChaoOEdXriQ-mAtP_2lYq6ealakzKNT-Jl_HSEL1jFRxmnqneV4Ho-mVXcBpbNWFrhhyyb5IKIzFyeX19w8r3ubYxpA2_nvTTxffmzz4buwn4_CrwcDxuFcqZIvmHFGjq_56g8sy42KAeNAv8SkeXGEAB5drb6k_SUYVI8QB4eqkfRMy5g=w640-h326" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>The ITCZ integrates global energy inputs and outputs,and accordingly shifts its average location towards the warmest hemisphere. Thus, small changes in solar energy can drive the migration of the ITCZ.</p>
<p>As the ITCZ migrated southward, it increased the frequency of El Niño events that cool the warm pool and contributed to the Holocene cooling trend.</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjwRNB8knE16g-C7UKGCcef5nYel3oX8RIBgFt51sJ5kxh_FnS-VVt47mJ7abOhioNONTiLWcJi3Qd-yLgmjtinixxU5XA5_MOZ9riw7CZxy4ROj7R4pbfxnwfSsehwyxUiFYX4DBfWXBN1zhEBaJU0MwHVG_rEx8F2CJSlnTF22AZhWTbrcEh6ciw1sw=s890" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="416" data-original-width="890" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjwRNB8knE16g-C7UKGCcef5nYel3oX8RIBgFt51sJ5kxh_FnS-VVt47mJ7abOhioNONTiLWcJi3Qd-yLgmjtinixxU5XA5_MOZ9riw7CZxy4ROj7R4pbfxnwfSsehwyxUiFYX4DBfWXBN1zhEBaJU0MwHVG_rEx8F2CJSlnTF22AZhWTbrcEh6ciw1sw=w400-h188" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>Conversely, it can be inferred that any northward ITCZ shift would result in fewer El Niños and more La Niña-like conditions that heat and enlarge the warm pool.</p>
<p>Although the exact reconstruction of global temperatures varies depending on the models and data that a researcher employs, all agree there has been an 8000-year cooling trend and that is the exact opposite of what CO2 driven climate models simulate.</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEje0vaVcEsV8oXGhUX0l54g2atk7a78yqKDp89juuQetSth-8I-vR4tS4YKR0wVRRuDKv_twHMUPArMToscs639xP6AcjsoFBxjvbVYl87RMKjnD18V0DOHGfyBtcqlNQaFL4C7TxzBDghJVXeC5D9YNZJVOva0-Gs5ikkPl0HwETiI4wqm7Kwim4giAA=s1186" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="492" data-original-width="1186" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEje0vaVcEsV8oXGhUX0l54g2atk7a78yqKDp89juuQetSth-8I-vR4tS4YKR0wVRRuDKv_twHMUPArMToscs639xP6AcjsoFBxjvbVYl87RMKjnD18V0DOHGfyBtcqlNQaFL4C7TxzBDghJVXeC5D9YNZJVOva0-Gs5ikkPl0HwETiI4wqm7Kwim4giAA=w400-h166" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>The erroneous climate models are driven by an 8000-year trend of increasing CO2, which puts those models at odds with evidence-based climate change</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhp0TL7MVI3RQr730xu5LFs8wFxsNoyNS9gOE_4n8vNNafCO3xCmXPj8pXPv7Fzb0-N28Q1Bkzka4SjkEhGwEYfgCOLHPCjBm27Rd4nH7Ekna7E93gOZXdzH7N3hr09fheIEaENsf6P-UqZh6T_fYD-mY1T7gOiQclY0Hho4L2KHiSJUIcVLGMC9-7kxA=s1186" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="1186" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhp0TL7MVI3RQr730xu5LFs8wFxsNoyNS9gOE_4n8vNNafCO3xCmXPj8pXPv7Fzb0-N28Q1Bkzka4SjkEhGwEYfgCOLHPCjBm27Rd4nH7Ekna7E93gOZXdzH7N3hr09fheIEaENsf6P-UqZh6T_fYD-mY1T7gOiQclY0Hho4L2KHiSJUIcVLGMC9-7kxA=w400-h143" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>In contrast to the Holocene cooling trend, all relevant researchers have found the warm pool has been expanding since 1900.</p>
<p>And this expansion coincides with a more La Niña-like Pacific Ocean with fewer El Niño events than during the Little Ice Age.</p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgM3f9qxep-1y7I7tQQsGJOnkPR_tHNoBAZip4HwlTiFrxNaHWb18Xpp0mXUJKUfnwZ7HsS7Me0XEHdXJFEJu6KsrwxMglt8sIrMaJ9Gi5Eu5S9NmLlmWqS_sn2kmQ-Sk-UjjreshdqIzBPe4-RdUauKm1C9BnPMZmrxYoFX7ThdVlENfLUTWvF-NmdxQ=s1024" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="470" data-original-width="1024" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgM3f9qxep-1y7I7tQQsGJOnkPR_tHNoBAZip4HwlTiFrxNaHWb18Xpp0mXUJKUfnwZ7HsS7Me0XEHdXJFEJu6KsrwxMglt8sIrMaJ9Gi5Eu5S9NmLlmWqS_sn2kmQ-Sk-UjjreshdqIzBPe4-RdUauKm1C9BnPMZmrxYoFX7ThdVlENfLUTWvF-NmdxQ=w400-h184" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><br /></p>
<p>Here is a closer look at the dynamics that control the warm pool and the effects of the ITCZ and El Niños.
Trade wind-driven equatorial currents bring heated water to the warm pool.</p>
<p>These currents are the north equatorial current, designated here as NEC, and 2 branches of the south equatorial current designated SEC.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgi7MMJdcsRTz7Bginw6Szyd_2Ns4gsCgCGzHrbTWMRUUyxA7-ICx3Xr8Q8yULS7UccIlEmedbwPHOG5L4ErVLXpRSb7Slaup4lsWacvEZcYj_cgHDwovcORTUwOb6Hf8EmFHNLqgGpgWtoTDclRWsXbi3x9JPnFpAjUeRQatw-j7dBJYg7Ly3bjvHhlA=s2163" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1581" data-original-width="2163" height="469" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgi7MMJdcsRTz7Bginw6Szyd_2Ns4gsCgCGzHrbTWMRUUyxA7-ICx3Xr8Q8yULS7UccIlEmedbwPHOG5L4ErVLXpRSb7Slaup4lsWacvEZcYj_cgHDwovcORTUwOb6Hf8EmFHNLqgGpgWtoTDclRWsXbi3x9JPnFpAjUeRQatw-j7dBJYg7Ly3bjvHhlA=w640-h469" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>
<p>The equatorial currents generate higher sea levels in the Pacific which pushes warm water through the maze of channels around the islands of the maritime continent, comprising a westward current known as the Indonesian throughflow. Much of that through flow joins the Indian ocean's south equatorial current that is part of the ocean conveyor belt. Some throughflow water circulates through the northern Indian ocean, enhancing an Indian ocean warm pool, </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEwZJsGtfgv5M6Cx2ffvp1XnrRPP8ttatjbNLHd3dQMpQqpswDFRcxfE0Q8yqS7wRxXvHv_1KjfWB7Fx7FY_feLsWcQ8c8s0ttowmoy2khs9RwFhq9SzN6dNgYNg15VASdW49yzDfBjZ7hgKDKYxtnjWBaIXUZV8PMB2OyNq0IoXwlzJb9iK2GiE01Vw=s2062" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1581" data-original-width="2062" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEwZJsGtfgv5M6Cx2ffvp1XnrRPP8ttatjbNLHd3dQMpQqpswDFRcxfE0Q8yqS7wRxXvHv_1KjfWB7Fx7FY_feLsWcQ8c8s0ttowmoy2khs9RwFhq9SzN6dNgYNg15VASdW49yzDfBjZ7hgKDKYxtnjWBaIXUZV8PMB2OyNq0IoXwlzJb9iK2GiE01Vw=w400-h306" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>While some flows join the Leeuwin current that flows southward along the west coast of Australia. During a strong La Niña this current is amplified producing what Australians call a Ningaloo Niño.</p>
<p>While the warm pool's overflow through the Indonesian through flow modulates its size, it is the eastward north equatorial counter current that truly controls the warm pool's size which then modulates the throughflow and warming of the ocean conveyor belt, The stronger the north equatorial counter current the more rapidly the warm pool is drained.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3Rv3I7Cb3C_GdzLCVc8B_JNPnPRwFHUklPHDWmlFKn4iAT4Mbbdm5if0Bj0ts-CewqRYARkUqWmBGhO3ezYRJn8iMfdGd4vAa_QMa_M6MnNlOPi1CVkRiVuVg9kSAvXIjvJCcIcq0RnCH9qhE6rexnysF_BgdWA1N9EbVcXaqVSKKR6qNuS8Td8-iPg=s1134" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="868" data-original-width="1134" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3Rv3I7Cb3C_GdzLCVc8B_JNPnPRwFHUklPHDWmlFKn4iAT4Mbbdm5if0Bj0ts-CewqRYARkUqWmBGhO3ezYRJn8iMfdGd4vAa_QMa_M6MnNlOPi1CVkRiVuVg9kSAvXIjvJCcIcq0RnCH9qhE6rexnysF_BgdWA1N9EbVcXaqVSKKR6qNuS8Td8-iPg=w400-h306" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p>
<p>The strength of the north Pacific gyre controls the draining of the warm pool.</p>
<p>The gyre is driven by the north trade winds that drive the north equatorial current on the gyre's southern border, while the westerly winds drive the gyre eastward on the gyre's northern border. The north equatorial current contributes a limited amount of water to the warm pool because much of the current veers northward into Kuroshio current bringing added warmth to Alaska.</p>
Since the 1980s, many researchers have reported that a strong gyre drains the warm pool by enhancing the counter current.<p>
Most recently researchers confirmed the connection between the gyre strength, the southward ITCZ migration during the Little Ice Age and an enhanced counter current that drained the Little Ice Age warm pool.</p><p>So, what's the role of thee ITCZ? In the age of satellites, the ITCZ is defined by a band of heavy clouds encircling the earth.
But centuries ago, sailors identified the ITCZ by the doldrums which stranded many a ship for days and weeks.
The ITCZ's vertically rising air creates relatively motionless surface air with no movement to the east, west, north, or south.
Thus, the doldrums allow a counter current to flow eastward without being opposed by the westward trade winds </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqnuwYbCMskex4PCjXcjdagVi4vetxNsdgITDiqi1QpRvdCshfU-tQGDeLKxADZes-EyWoHrQJj69twEs9_Q_ZjzXEc8lgBhYWRJXNS0iHY6Dbq7I2Mpn_up5VMIbUWYbTpzUTBhqTaAlFVPJFGMx5iDxBNhDFjIrntd4WE8uNkfmCThW_nLa0AO9oXQ=s2461" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1970" data-original-width="2461" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqnuwYbCMskex4PCjXcjdagVi4vetxNsdgITDiqi1QpRvdCshfU-tQGDeLKxADZes-EyWoHrQJj69twEs9_Q_ZjzXEc8lgBhYWRJXNS0iHY6Dbq7I2Mpn_up5VMIbUWYbTpzUTBhqTaAlFVPJFGMx5iDxBNhDFjIrntd4WE8uNkfmCThW_nLa0AO9oXQ=w400-h320" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>As a result, a shifting ITCZ can determine the strength of the counter current and size of the warm pool on all time scales from seasons to ice ages. </p><p>The two branches of the south equatorial current provide about 66% of the warm water to the warm pool.
Because the ITCZ's average position over the Pacific remains to the north, there is only a very weak south equatorial current, here designated SECC, that sometimes disappears completely. So equatorial counter current has a minimal impact on the warm pool. </p><p>Not only does the ITCZ drive the strong north equatorial counter current but also a deeper eastward undercurrent that drains deeper waters of the warm pool. </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCNJAL4cB_8ZEIJDb4V8FDvfZVuqA0K6ap1rYQEGP9GHQ6_z0HdAi2XkOyr0jsnuEfYt8iwo6KsrJ2poBZ3cOubfFxukWoeNbrlGz2k4gBTkpwc9GMG89LA77SC8q0sKchk0Bi_FSwMAG7JEcVfzzFf4NxXyyzN2Yg8g4SiPi_FlByoDLXxRHdmGbTmA=s1302" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="734" data-original-width="1302" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCNJAL4cB_8ZEIJDb4V8FDvfZVuqA0K6ap1rYQEGP9GHQ6_z0HdAi2XkOyr0jsnuEfYt8iwo6KsrJ2poBZ3cOubfFxukWoeNbrlGz2k4gBTkpwc9GMG89LA77SC8q0sKchk0Bi_FSwMAG7JEcVfzzFf4NxXyyzN2Yg8g4SiPi_FlByoDLXxRHdmGbTmA=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>How does the sun and greenhouse warming affect the warmth of the equatorial currents?
The warm pool waters originate from the high-pressure regions created by the Hadley circulation.
The descending air in those high pressure-systems are dry, and thus few clouds are formed and amplifies solar heating. The lower amounts of water vapor, the major greenhouse gas, also allows more heat waves to escape back to space, reducing any greenhouse warming. So, it is accurate to claim increasing warm pool heat is driven by solar heating. </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMQOPB19OZ1oApGz9oNDIuraerIKKAKN3gMymwH6oHszJxNbbUwL05vgv6xUK1RkyzvotSmjsAFOeh05MajPvVqQQD5gegxSmqr6-z4Ov7YxCNP0c4qLByVDd4gP0NuvpzS2cwcBOUgTR-KJSGKjmgk5o_eybIbWmRcJ86CpV9bjRrZQnA1BZN8hsjlw=s4358" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1251" data-original-width="4358" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhMQOPB19OZ1oApGz9oNDIuraerIKKAKN3gMymwH6oHszJxNbbUwL05vgv6xUK1RkyzvotSmjsAFOeh05MajPvVqQQD5gegxSmqr6-z4Ov7YxCNP0c4qLByVDd4gP0NuvpzS2cwcBOUgTR-KJSGKjmgk5o_eybIbWmRcJ86CpV9bjRrZQnA1BZN8hsjlw=w640-h184" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p>All the dynamics in a La Niña-like ocean are illustrated here. An official La Niña happens when temperatures in the Niño 3.4 regions are at least a half degree Celsius cooler than average for 3 months.
Whether during a neutral El Niño Oscillation year or an official La Niña year, the same dynamics increase the warm pool. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhlUmD9QhC4tP35q46-eF105a1q7A4HylCy_d8qIfFyQByNJbtdTJR8kLCRBurTHjHpaw8oS8VWYHE8y-3hHo_nsdbXBvC_Ng4eas9OfiuerlUrqcyQ5UNqkjbUgi_lbVTsNboXDL_IauYWZjoT4sw3KjZ29SwSOk54tW0eOWxxBQr0I5q9cSe5jQ-rlw=s2837" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2154" data-original-width="2837" height="486" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhlUmD9QhC4tP35q46-eF105a1q7A4HylCy_d8qIfFyQByNJbtdTJR8kLCRBurTHjHpaw8oS8VWYHE8y-3hHo_nsdbXBvC_Ng4eas9OfiuerlUrqcyQ5UNqkjbUgi_lbVTsNboXDL_IauYWZjoT4sw3KjZ29SwSOk54tW0eOWxxBQr0I5q9cSe5jQ-rlw=w640-h486" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>Accordingly, the western Pacific experiences higher sea levels that feed the Indonesian throughflow and ocean conveyor belt.
More warm water gets stored deeper in the west Pacific warm pool deepening the thermocline.
Strong trade winds cause upwelling of cooler deep waters in the eastern Pacific, causing a large east west temperature gradient of about 6-7 degrees Celsius between the warmer western warm pool and the cooler upwelled waters of the eastern Pacific.
That large temperature gradient defines a La Niña-like ocean. This temperature gradient amplifies the trade winds which further reinforces La Niña conditions.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgeaalbQnBACSnsOrrO3iPvjXsUeD9y_bHjQJjnF-OGCAT1stkfg7dWb637_ickAqyFTqTmSR_cJhoaE8u_UZVRDZlrW2gUHPB_rE72e8fCsxX4ti3vNKYXao-XqwVveHoEMfyXLGkOy8aBN4_QDHJcCetTGF7xefAWvCWC41-mNmg3e2TMZr98YBg87A=s2699" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1503" data-original-width="2699" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgeaalbQnBACSnsOrrO3iPvjXsUeD9y_bHjQJjnF-OGCAT1stkfg7dWb637_ickAqyFTqTmSR_cJhoaE8u_UZVRDZlrW2gUHPB_rE72e8fCsxX4ti3vNKYXao-XqwVveHoEMfyXLGkOy8aBN4_QDHJcCetTGF7xefAWvCWC41-mNmg3e2TMZr98YBg87A=w640-h356" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>All climate models based on the physics of CO2 warming have predicted that rising CO2 would have little effect on warm pool surface temperatures, arguing CO2 would preferentially warm the eastern Pacific where dryness had reduced greenhouse warming, and thus reduce the temperature gradient
But this has not happened, as the large temperature gradient has on average remained or increased in accord with a currently growing warm pool. </p><p>In 2019, Seager published a paper showing that by using different physics, the lack of eastern Pacific warming was consistent with CO2 theory. Apparently, the choice of which science to follow is quite arbitrary
So, with amplified trade winds maintaining strong La Niña-like conditions, what triggers the switch to an El Niño every 3 to 7 years.
The short answer is the ITCZ </p><p>The ITCZ doldrums enable an amplified eastward equatorial countercurrent that results in El Niños
As the ITCZ moves southward the rising air within the ITCZ also triggers the intense convection in the Indian ocean of the 60 to 90-day Madden Julian Oscillation that produces westerly wind bursts
Those westerly wind bursts can initiate a kelvin wave of eastward flowing warm pool water. </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj20E97r1q9Xn5rQPK-bxS3chsE83FgmX2uUBfbQbmYfEVmJG_sk_6oyVSFnVN2DHpBdylyO09vZ0xU4fVleqY-xAxQD5_77mWKFd-l-9xk5mnZs49WTbnL-4BBjGL22jrOkT9qpgeBxAFtAnY-yzFEbYkdff7yyb7nPlnZB3zLkvYbE4AILA-U4NubA=s478" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="215" data-original-width="478" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhj20E97r1q9Xn5rQPK-bxS3chsE83FgmX2uUBfbQbmYfEVmJG_sk_6oyVSFnVN2DHpBdylyO09vZ0xU4fVleqY-xAxQD5_77mWKFd-l-9xk5mnZs49WTbnL-4BBjGL22jrOkT9qpgeBxAFtAnY-yzFEbYkdff7yyb7nPlnZB3zLkvYbE4AILA-U4NubA=w640-h288" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>The resulting El Niño events then drain the warm pool and cool the ocean's sub-surface waters. Enough 26+ degree warm pool water moves eastward to also shift the location of intense convection affecting global weather.
The warm pool's stored sub-surface heat is brought to the surface in the central and eastern Pacific where it ventilates causing a temporary spike in the global average air temperatures.
That reduces the east west temperature gradient, which defines an El Niño-like ocean.
A smaller temperature gradient weakens the trade winds reducing the volume of warm water pumped into the warm pool. Upwelling is reduced, maintaining a warmer eastern Pacific, </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSQIqSI3b7rl8bDI9AVSmGxpyysMaMkyPPTWRJOrBoDzn7Qf61gynQIeqGpnOxUpIus8fPeH4JmhsdpXWb1EmzfV4OC1I6rn1N6Ivom3VRaqzBUCZjbVRR59XGzU2F0x4pp006wEkkitZq4y2wXDJe7jSlPaC4uwDMQrgW1Hs5c8IM-GsbQP_5oF4a1A=s3130" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1654" data-original-width="3130" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgSQIqSI3b7rl8bDI9AVSmGxpyysMaMkyPPTWRJOrBoDzn7Qf61gynQIeqGpnOxUpIus8fPeH4JmhsdpXWb1EmzfV4OC1I6rn1N6Ivom3VRaqzBUCZjbVRR59XGzU2F0x4pp006wEkkitZq4y2wXDJe7jSlPaC4uwDMQrgW1Hs5c8IM-GsbQP_5oF4a1A=w640-h338" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>Looking at just the past 2000 years, Oppo's 2009 temperature reconstruction shows the recent warm pool temperatures (shown here in black), began increasing in the 1700s before the rise of industrial CO2. Oppo also compared warm pool trends to Michael Mann’s 2008 global temperature reconstruction, shown in red. Both reconstructions show similar long-term variations except Mann’s last 100 years that he attributes to rising CO2. However, the warm pool was as warm 1000 years ago during the Medieval Warm Period, as it is today, despite lower CO2 concentrations. </p><p>However, the warmer Medieval warm pool does correlate with a La Niña-like ocean and an ITCZ that was located further north. </p><p>During the Little Ice Age, the warm pool cooled associated with sunspot minimums and the southward migration of the ITCZ. The ocean entered an El-Niño like state, (as indicated by coral proxies from Cobb 2003 and other researchers), indicating ocean dynamics were draining the warm pool. </p><p> Since the 1700s, as the ITCZ moved back northwards, the ocean experienced fewer ventilating El Niños, and the warm pool began warming and expanding </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhw41rI4kaQGhk2GlC5Xf7r-LyvNEDUjlPCoC7iTE5qEDLdYd30vZ_5QYuRuS5kHGfpp_0hCVUSCma9BLNZ3r9vVhWxJ1izIsy1pl7ChzIzAzb_y9ApmgnCB5PRs3TDYIsysSIrrXWkknznoaViShLIOZoJ5mtksN5BD6SiKk-2Of_sHjB6MZLQFg9Q0A=s898" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="898" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhw41rI4kaQGhk2GlC5Xf7r-LyvNEDUjlPCoC7iTE5qEDLdYd30vZ_5QYuRuS5kHGfpp_0hCVUSCma9BLNZ3r9vVhWxJ1izIsy1pl7ChzIzAzb_y9ApmgnCB5PRs3TDYIsysSIrrXWkknznoaViShLIOZoJ5mtksN5BD6SiKk-2Of_sHjB6MZLQFg9Q0A=w640-h282" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>So, here's how to interpret a graph of the past 50 years of global average temperatures. Putting aside changes in land surfaces that also increase temperatures via dynamics such as urban heat islands, the most parsimonious explanation for the observed warming trend is there are currently fewer El Niños than during Little Ice Age, and more La Niña-like years that has increased the heating dynamics to support a growing warm pool.
The warming trend simply reflects the recharging of the earth's hot water heater that was drained during the Little Ice Age. </p><p>The transitory air temperature spikes are caused by El Niños discharging stored heat, which temporarily cool the ocean. </p><p>So, what does the future hold?
It’s hard to know. The scientific community is divided on predictions regarding more or fewer future El Niños </p><p>But the next few decades should provide some evidence that could refute or support the warm pool hypothesis. So, teach your children to be on the alert and think critically. </p><p>If low solar output continues with low sunspots as some predict, then, if the ITCZ is truly sensitive to such small radiative changes, the ITCZ should move further southward, and temperatures will approach Little Ice Age conditions. </p><p>However, if solar output increases as others predict, the ITCZ should edge northwards, and the warm pool will continue to expand, and temperatures will approach those of the medieval warm period.
The good news is since there was no climate crisis one thousand years ago, there won’t be one that happens in the near future, and the effects of CO2 will continue to be insignificant. </p><p>So up next: will be part 5 of how pressure systems control the climate: the cause heatwaves</p></div></div>Jim Steelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02652430670493741009noreply@blogger.com3