Friday, November 5, 2021

Part 4 How Natural Oscillations Affect Arctic Climate & Predict Future Climate Change

 Watch this important video examining how natural oscillations affect climate, Arctic temperatures and Arctic sea ice

Part 4 How Natural Oscillations Affect Arctic Climate & Predict Future Climate Change

The transcript to video is below:

 Welcome everyone. 

This is part four, that's examining the natural dynamics that have driven changes in Arctic ice and Arctic temperatures.  Before scientists can blame rising CO2 for observed Arctic changes, the degree that natural quasi-cycles, or oscillations,  generate those changes must be determined.  Partly due to their more recent characterizations, several oscillations are inadequately represented in the climate models, despite their c

ENSO or the  El Nino Southern Oscillation causes warm waters to slosh eastward across the Pacific,  every three to seven years. It was recognized by renowned climate scientist, Jacob Bjeerknes, who is deemed the father of modern weather forecasting,  in the 1960s, when he pointed out that as El Ninos and La Ninas  re-organize ocean surface temperatures, that same dynamic in turn reorganizes pressure systems in atmospheric circulation.

ENSO causes periodic droughts in California and Peru ,while simultaneously, floods in Indonesia and then switches, causing floods in California and drought in Indonesia. More recently, it has been determined that ENSO affects the jet streams and pressure systems, affecting weather and climate around the world.

The reorganization of ocean temperatures by ENSO has a long-term effect resulting in a 20 to 30 year Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or the PDO, that reorganizes ocean atmospheric circulations, as well as fish populations. It was just named in 1997. Johnstone and Mantua in their 2014 paper revealed how the PDO totally explains the 20th centuries climate changes in western North America. 

The Madden Julian oscillation, first described in 1971, annually relocates the regions of strongest convection as it moves across the warm equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans. That alters the jet streams and global pressure systems and can have an impact on the two major oscillations in the Atlantic Ocean. And those oscillations drive the changes in Arctic ocean sea ice and temperatures.

First, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or AMO ,causes north Atlantic surface waters to warm and the Southern Atlantic to cool and then, vice versa over a period of 20 to 60 years while superimposed on long-term warming trends.

The AMO correlates with changes in the north Atlantic fisheries, as well as Greenland air temperatures, Greenland's ice caps, and the warming in the Arctic and the loss of the sea ice as seen in recent decades and in the 1920s and thirties, that was documented by the Danish sea ice records. Contrary to CO2 driven climate crisis narratives that the most rapid climate change is happening now. Studies showed that the rate of Greenland's warming was 50% greater in the 1920s than the recent warming starting in the 1990s 

And contrary to predictions from CO2 warming models, the AMO cycled to its cold phase in the 70s and 80s causing Greenland's temperatures to cool and its ice cap to increase, as well as the fish that had once migrated north during the warming decades, to now retreat southward. The AMO warm phase peaked about a decade ago, and once again, it is now headed to its cold face.

The AMOs alternation between warm and cold phases appears to be driven by changes in heat transport by the Gulf Stream, as demonstrated by the 2018 peer reviewed paper. There is currently a debate whether or not the Gulf stream is now slowing down, but the sub polar waters have definitely been cooling, in what some have called the cold blob. 

Studies such as Frajka-Williams 2017 study suggests that the Atlantic cooling will continue, as expected as the AMO enters the cool phase. 

New studies, such as the 2020 research by Morenao and Chamarro, find that the AMO, also called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability is linked to decadal changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, or ITC Z, as we discussed in the video part three, just as the ITCZ has affected climate for thousands of years.  When the ITCZ is located more northward, there is more warm tropical waters crossing the equator to feed the Gulf stream. The subtropical high pressure system also moves northward and produces winds that help drive the Gulf stream towards the Arctic 

During the colder periods like the last ice age and more recent Little Ice Age,  associated with colder Northern temperatures the ITCz shifted southwards and less warm waters crossed the equator. The subtropical high pressure system also shifts southward, causing more warm water to be circulated back towards the equator and reduce the warm waters flowing into the Arctic. 

This alternation between pumping warm water into the Arctic versus re-cycling warm water back towards the equator,  is a key dynamic driving warming and cooling in the Arctic. And thus the global average temperature. Scandinavian scientists in the Barrents Sea Ice Edge project also reported in 2020, an alternation between pumping water into the Arctic versus circulating warm water back towards the equator, as a key dynamic driving warming and cooling in the Arctic, They suggested changes in the Earth's rotation and other natural dynamics were affecting the ocean heat transport. 

Other researchers suggest the most likely candidate is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation or the NAO, is an atmospheric oscillation caused by changing strengths and locations of the Icelandic Low and Azore High pressure systems. And they alter the strength and direction of the warm winds and the resulting flows of warm water into the Arctic. 

The phases of the NAO vary over periods of just days and weeks. However its annual average also alternates over periods of decades. From the 1970s through the 2000s, the NAO was on average in a more positive phase.  In the positive phase the Icelandic low pressure system intensifies and its location helps draw more storms, warmer air and warmer ocean water temperatures into the Arctic, thus reducing sea ice.

This lengthy positive phase aligned with, and seemingly supported, catastrophic beliefs that rising CO2 was melting the Arctic. 

However for the 30 years before the 70s, the NAO was primarily in the negative phase, causing its cooler conditions. The negative phase drives storms and warm air and moisture westward,  instead of north into the Arctic. But like the AMO it now appears there is a trend back to a more negative phases.

The following series of illustrations are screenshots taken from the videos on the website,  that uses data from the National Weather Service, GPS computer models, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. 

I encourage everyone to go to this site. It provides everyone with the same data professional scientists use to forecast weather and climate, and it enables YOU to appreciate the role of Arctic pressure systems or pressure systems elsewhere, and truly follow the science!

Now, if you click on the word earth up pops this menu. You can choose from this menu to have overlays based on temperature, winds, or pressure systems, etc, and choose to view those factors and how they are affecting different levels of the atmosphere, from the surface to higher up.

Using the control buttons, you can choose the date of interest to see how the Arctic's weather factors have affected a given extreme event 

For this illustration, I chose the MSLP button to view the mean sea level pressure that overlays the surface winds. The purple color represents the areas of low pressure. The Icelandic low is centered just south of Greenland. I've added the red arrows to more clearly see how the Low circulates the winds, faintly seen in white. The gray areas represent high pressure regions. And I added the green arrows to clearly see how the High pressure affects air circulation.

On October 21st, these pressure systems were driving the winds towards Scandinavia, but the winds abruptly turned towards great Britain driven by the low pressure system centered over Scandinavia.

A week later by October 28th, the Low pressure systems had merged, with its center now to the east of Greenland while the Azore High shifted southward, changing the winds' directions. My red arrow shows the directions of the winds. So I forecasted that those winds would carry heavy moisture towards southern Great Britain. To evaluate my understanding, I then looked for the BBC weather reports for that date. As expected the weather reports forecasted heavy rains hitting the west coast of Wales. 

On that same date, a high pressure system had settled on the center of Greenland. The high pressure system is pushing moisture away and blocking moisture from entering and adding snow and ice to Greenland, except in Greenland's upper Northwest corner.

To check that conclusion, I went to the Polar Portal website, which I also highly recommend to everyone. Indeed, the only moisture entering gloom Greenland was in the far Northwest, represented by the blue there.

Bottom panel shows how the massive ice and snow accumulates each day during the year. On average, about 2 gigatons are added every day, represented by the thick black line. Greenland only loses surface mass during the months from May to August when there's high solar irradiation. On October 28th, the gain of mass was barely one gigaton, as expected by the pressure patterns affect on moisture carrying winds. 

In contrast three months earlier on May 25th, a large Icelandic Low pressure system was located in the Southwest of Greenland. The circulation pattern suggested strong moisture flows and surface mass gains over the Southeast tip and Western Greenland. Sure enough, the pressure system drove record amounts of moisture onto Greenland, adding 12 gigatons of ice and snow 

CO2 climate change theory argues a warmer planet increases the amount of moisture evaporating from the oceans to the air, suggesting that increased warmth had caused this extreme precipitation, but here aadheerents of such global warming beliefs would be misled.

The moisture was being transported from a cooling region of the ocean, the one known as the cold blob. 

So likewise if you follow these weather events, it becomes clear time after time, that the extreme events are driven by various configurations of pressure systems, not global warming.  In addition to extreme weather events, the shifting of the average position and strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azore High, generates the phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which largely determines how much warm water enters the Arctic.                            

That relationship is illustrated by a study by Delworth in 2016, showing the NAO variations since 1950 correlate with the increasing warm inflows and thus less sea ice. The NAO becomes increasingly positive from the 1970s, peaking in the 1990s. Because the NAO is an atmospheric oscillation, there's a little inertia so it can change phases quickly in one year. The volume of warm water moving northward in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Overturning currents, measured at 50 degrees north , increase as the NAO becomes more positive, but with a slight time lag due to the ocean's greater inertia. 

Likewise, the amount of heat transported northward also increases.

And lastly, the amount of heat entering the Barrents Sea to melt more sea ice, likewise had increased. But with much less heat, because heat is ventilated and lost as it move from 50 degrees north and into the Barrents Sea at 70 degrees north. 

This correlation has also been documented in several other peer reviewed studies. And all measures show that since the late 1990s, less warm water intrudes into the Arctic as the natural North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation appeared to be both trending towards their negative phases. And that trend, at least in part, explains the growing cold blog.

The declining trend in intruding waters also explains the stable sea ice since 2007. From the 1980s to the first decade of the 2000s, the warm water and air intrusions into the Barents Sea, correlates with the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. But the leveling off of summer sea ice extent since 2007 correlates with the reduced warm water intrusions.

And in contrast to doomsday climate crisis narratives, the current levels of reduced sea ice extent, greatly benefits the entire Arctic food web. Less ice allows more photosynthesis, providing more food right up the food chain for fish, seals, and polar bears. And undeniably, polar bear populations have greatly increased 

Misled by the positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase, Al gore jumped on the "crisis meme" bandwagon to position himself as 'the politician' that could best save the world from the approaching warming crisis.In 2009, he told the world that during the summer months, the Arctic would be completely ice-free in five to seven years. But that prediction failed.

But to be fair, he was a victim of the beliefs of alarmist researchers, who also promoted the idea of a climate crisis in 2010. Prominent alarmist climate researchers, like Ken Caldera and Michael Mann, cxccc wrote to the secretary of the interior, Ken Salazar urging him to declare the polar bear endangered from global warming. The letter stated climate change imperils the polar bear and for the current greenhouse gas emission trends, Arctic summer sea ice would disappear by the 2030s or before!

But as CO2 driven predictions continued to fail, the sea ice has stopped decreasing and polar bears are fat and increasing. 

It's still the dire Arctic warnings that serve as mainstream media clickbait. So we still see headlines about experts predicting an ice-free Arctic by 2020 or 2030 or 2050 to echo the dire UN climate reports. 

So what should we expect by 2030?

Should we expect an ice-free Arctic as predicted by CO2 driven climate crisis models?

I will see ice begin to increase as suggested by known natural oscillations based on the science of natural oscillations. I've already placed my bets with a few fellow scientists that Arctic sea ice should start increasing by 2030 up next. Why the department of defense's recent climate analysis jeopardizes our safety. And until then, please embrace renowned scientist.

Thomas Huxley's advice. Skepticism is the highest of duties in blind faith. The one on pardonable sin. And if you appreciate the science clearly presented here, science rarely presented by mainstream media. Then please give it a like share or copy the URL of the video and send it to friends via email, subscribe to my channel and see all the videos or read my book, landscapes and cycles in environmentalist journey to climate skepticism.

Thank you.