HALF-TRUTHS ABOUT RETREATING GLACIERS

 

To watch the video "HALF-TRUTHS ABOUT RETREATING GLACIERS" visit

https://youtu.be/NAzHNoyIsZQ

below is the transcript

Welcome back to this examination of Half Truths About Retreating Glaciers in part 6 of How Pressure Systems Control Climate.

There is no question what-so-ever that most of the world's glaciers have been retreating. However because the elites at Climate.gov believe rising CO2 is causing all the earth's warming, they mistakenly assume it iscan also be blamed for retreating glaciers, stating

"the most dramatic evidence that earth's climate is warming is the retreat and disappearance of mountain glaciers around the world."

So, the public is fed half-truths about a CO2 climate crisis causing glacier retreat.

In contrast, there is wealth of opposing, peer-reviewed, published, scientific evidence demonstrating that changing patterns of moisture transport control the ebbs and flows of glaciers - not global average temperature. So here I will share just a small portion of that science for you to follow.

Just consider that Greenland's Jakobshavn glacier retreated by half its length before 1851 during cooler times. Clearly dynamics other than warming are in play, dynamics shamefully downplayed or not discussed at all by mainstream media.

A growing number of scientists have been questioning the dogma that the Little Ice Age's glacier growth and subsequent retreat, was driven by changing temperature. As Norwegian glacier expert Atle Nesje queried

"The Little Ice Age - only temperature?

In that regard climate scientist Michael Mann wrote, "the little ice age was a time of modest cooling of the northern hemisphere by about 0.6 degrees Celsius." those centuries may have been "more significant in terms of increased climate variability."

Climate scientist Christian Vincent questioned why the Alp's glaciers began retreating in early 1800s before any global warming had begun and concluded decreasing winter precipitation caused glacier retreats.

Glaciers can be characterized by two different but intimately linked zones.

The ablation zone is located at the lower end of a glacier, there, snow and ice are lost during the warm summer melt season. So, some scientists argue glaciers are retreating because CO2 global warming is increasing ablation.

At the top of a glacier is the colder accumulation zone where snow and ice are added to a glacier. When there is less replenishment of ice in the accumulation zone due to decreased precipitation, less ice is transported downslope causing the ablation zone to retreat.

Thus, less precipitation can cause retreating glaciers even when temperatures are not warming.

A group of Swiss climate scientists led by HansPeter Holzhauser published that the period of Little Ice Age glacier growth in the Alps (illustrated by black silhouettes) correlated with periods of heavy rainfall and high lake levels (illustrated by the shaded regions)

Three periods of high lake levels corresponded with peak glacier growth while glacier retreats correlated with lower lake levels.

In the paper "solving the paradox of the end of the little ice age in the Alps," Vincent reported that our current retreat of alpine glaciers had resulted from a 25+% decrease in winter precipitation since 1830.

Norwegian glacier expert Atle Nesje argued the North Atlantic Oscillation determines which regions receive glacier sustaining moisture, by shifting the pathways of the moisture- bearing westerly winds.

During the oscillation's negative phase, the Azore High- and Iceland-Low pressure systems weaken and shift southward, diverting moist westerly winds towards southern Europe.

During the positive phase those pressure systems intensify and shift the winds northward towards Scandinavia. In the positive phase, precipitation is diverted away from southern Europe causing its glaciers to retreat, while simultaneously redirecting moisture to the Scandinavian coast where glaciers were growing since 1967.

The North Atlantic Oscillation can shift phases from month to month but on average can favor one phase for decades or centuries.

During the little ice age, the scientific consensus suggests the North Atlantic Oscillation was primarily in its negative phase, accounting for the growing glaciers in southern Europe. But since at least 1920, it has been in the positive phase more often, accounting for the high percentage of retreating Alpine glaciers

Between 1950 and 1980, during a slightly more more negative phase of the oscillation the number of advancing Alpine glaciers increased to over 60%. But with a return to a more positive phase, fewer than 5% of the Alps’ glaciers are now observed advancing and most are retreating.

Due to the surprising denial of precipitation effects on glaciers, politicians and climate crisis promoters argued rising CO2 would cause the extinction of Mount Kilimanjaro’s glacier before 2020.

However, based on past lake levels, such as nearby Lake Naivasha’s, precipitation changes correlate with the ebbs and flows of Kilimanjaro’s glacier.

1000 years ago, during the Medieval Warm Period this region of Africa was much drier than today, and the existing glacier of that time likely disappeared.

Then during the Little Ice Age, coinciding with sunspot minimums the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrated southward, the region experienced increasing rainfall and a new glacier evolved, reaching its maximum area by the late 1700s.

In 2007, glacier expert Douglas Hardy summarized the research indicating Kilimanjaro’s current glacier is only about 50-200 years old, in agreement with the timing of Lake Naivasha’s high stand.

Similarly, research by Cullen (2006) concluded glaciers on Kilimanjaro are merely remnants of a past climate rather than a sensitive indicator of 20th century climate change

Curiously, over the past 4 years as sunspots approach a century low, lake Naivasha’s lake levels have been increasing along with increased snowfall on Kilimanjaro. So, keep an eye out for how Kilimanjaro responds. It certainly hasn’t disappeared as Al Gore or Michael Mann predicted.

By ignoring the precipitation dynamics of previous centuries click-bait media uses graphs like this to suggest the glacier may soon disappear and incorrectly blame CO2 warming.

The climate crisis narratives typically fail to report renowned glacier expert Georg Kaser's 2010 explanation of that decline stating, "the near extinction of Kilimanjaro’s plateau ice in modern times is controlled by the absence of regional wet periods rather than changes in local air temperature on the peak of Kilimanjaro."

A 2019 study led by Kevin Anchukaitis used drought proxy data to determine regions of high rainfall and snowpack (here illustrated in blue) and regions of drought illustrated in brown

They found a strong correlation with weak solar output (the sunspot minimums), the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Little Ice Age glacier advances in southern Europe, Alaska, and northwestern North America

When the North Atlantic Oscillation changed to its positive phase, wet regions switched to dry regions, with resulting glacier retreats.

Glacier National Park, on the USA-Canadian border, sits at a pivot point of the North Atlantic Oscillation's wet/dry see saw.

The park's largest glacier, the Sperry, reached its maximum size in the mid 1800s during the wet negative phase. The ensuing drought conditions when the North Atlantic Oscillation switched to its positive phase, caused the Sperry to lose 62% of its area between 1850 and 1945.

Further north, the mysterious retreat of Alaska’s Glacier Bay glaciers highlighted another dynamic.

In 1794 the Vancouver expedition reported the entire bay was covered by a large tidewater glacier with its ocean outlet at Icy Strait choked with ice

Eighty-five years later in 1879, before global warming had begun, John Muir visited Glacier Bay to find the glacier had retreated a whopping 48 miles.

By 1916 the bay's main glacier had retreated an additional 17 miles Why such a rapid retreat in cooler times?

To complicate matters, there are still glaciers that are currently growing despite warmer temperatures.

The Johns Hopkins glacier has been advancing since 1929.

The Margerie glacier flows downslope at a rate of 2000 feet per year where its terminus maintains a stable position by calving ice bergs into the bay.

The Brady Glacier had advanced between 1794 and 1961 and is now relatively stable

The key to understanding these contrasting fluctuations is that the non-retreating glaciers have accumulation zones at elevations above 10,000 feet or 3 kilometers.

Livia Jakob’s 2021 study of glacier behavior in the Gulf of Alaska since 2010 showed contrasting glacier fluctuations were a function of elevation. Glacier Bay is fed by glaciers in the St Elias mountains (shown here in orange)

Glaciers originating in the higher elevation mountains are stable or gaining ice over the past decade as seen by the green trend lines in the St Elias Mountains and the Alaska Range mountains.

In contrast, glaciers at lower elevations are losing ice, the reds and yellow trend lines. Coincidentally, most of the small glaciers that once contributed to the glacier that had filled Glacier Bay and seen during the Vancouver expedition, had accumulation zones below 10,000 feet.

Clearly, in addition to precipitation amounts, glacier growth and retreat are functions of elevation

Why is an elevation of 3 km or 10,000 feet so critical at Glacier Bay?

Snow forms when water vapor freezes and freezing temperatures are typically encountered at 10,000 feet and above. For snow to accumulate on a mountain slope, local air temperatures must remain below freezing all the way to the surface.

However, during the summer, Glacier Bay's average high surface temperatures are above freezing in August through October, just when peak precipitation occurs.

Using a moist lapse rate of 2.7 ºF cooling for every 1000-foot increase in altitude, we can calculate the elevation where snow will accumulate each month.

The minimal freezing elevation for August is 10,300 feet, it's 7,700 feet for September and 4,800 feet in October

Atmospheric rivers carry the bulk of moisture from the tropics to the higher latitudes. Where atmospheric rivers make landfall is determined by the seasonal position of the Pacific’s high- and low-pressure systems.

The more northerly position of the Pacific High-pressure system during summer guides more atmospheric rivers into the Gulf of Alaska during August through October. Accordingly, Glacier Bay's peak precipitation happens during September and October.

But landfall of relatively warm atmospheric rivers has dramatically different effects on snowpack at different elevations. Atmospheric rivers increase snowpack above the freezing elevations but reduce snowpack at lower elevations. The near total reduction of snowpack by a warm atmospheric river, has been well documented from Greenland to California’s sierra Nevada.

Without accounting for elevation freezing points such contrasting effects have caused some correlational studies to mistakenly suggest precipitation has no significant effect on a glaciers overall growth.

The moisture transport to the Himalayan glaciers is more complicated.

The greatest accumulation of ice in the Mount Everest region is driven by summer monsoons. And similar to northwestern North America’s glaciers, El Ninos and La Ninas will cause decadal ebbs and flows of moisture transport to those glaciers.

In contrast, the Karakorum mountains receive little moisture from the summer monsoons but more moisture from the winter westerly winds, causing the Karakorum glaciers to react differently than eastern Himalayan glaciers

Nonetheless, a multitude of researchers such as Shekhar (2017) and Singh 2020. They have reported a long-term drying trend that began in the late phases of the Little Ice Age causing retreating Himalayan glaciers before the rise of industrial CO2.

Climate expert Tapio Schneider's 2014 research described how the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrated southward during the Little Ice Age, weakening the Asian monsoons supply of summer moisture to Himalayan glaciers

Jian Hui Chen's 2019 study detailed, how the north Atlantic oscillation affects moisture transport to the Himalaya. As the Little Ice Age ITCZ and associated pressure systems shifted southward, a wavier jet stream brought more moisture to the Himalaya and Tibetan plateau via the westerly winds.

As solar irradiance rebounded from its depths during the Maunder sunspot minimum, the ITCZ and associated pressure systems began migrating northward, also driving the jet stream northward and reducing moisture transport to the Himalaya.

The interplay of these conflicting dynamics makes it difficult to predict future glacier changes in the Himalaya.

Nonetheless, the politically driven United Nations Environmental Programme, or UNEP argues the decline of Himalayan glaciers are a "clear indicator of [CO2] climate change" and an "obvious indicator of warming temperatures" and they provide this illustration to support their narrative.

However, their bias is immediately obvious.

They illustrate a strong decline in 3 Karakorum glaciers, but just one stable glacier and one that is slightly gaining ice. In contrast, glacier expert Melanie Rankl's 2014 study reported nearly 80% of Karakorum’s glaciers were stable, 5% were advancing and only 7.6% were retreating.

Furthermore, due to a dearth of long-term surveys, most of the Himalayan retreating trends begin around 1960, and that provides the misleading optics used to support a narrative of human-caused CO2 warming. UNEP provides only 2 trends beginning around 1850, and those clearly demonstrate glacier retreats began before global warming.

The United Nations is disturbingly spreading mis-information by not informing the public about the well-documented drying trends that initiated glacier retreat before rising CO2.

But then again, I expect nothing less from an agenda-driven organization that brings a sixteen- year-old actress front and center to brow beat the public about climate science.

Tibet's ancient holy mother, Quomalangma, also known as Mt Everest, further illustrates why retreating glaciers are a function of less precipitation.

As Franco Salerno published in 2015, 75% of Quomalangma's glaciers reside between elevations of 5000 meter (16,500 feet) and 6500 meters (21,300 feet). This happens because atmospheric temperatures do not drop below the freezing point until elevations of 5000 meters and higher.

Glacier accumulation zones are fed by monsoonal moisture peaking in July and August. Accumulation zones must be above 5000 meters as summer monsoonal flows raise the surface temperatures above freezing at 5000 meters. However, measurements reveal precipitation at high elevations was just half of what it had been 20 years before Salerno's study.

That fact led Salerno to conclude their research “Challenges the assumption that temperature is the main driver of glacier mass changes.”

So, what does the future hold for the Earth's glaciers?

Understanding that moisture transport, not global average temperature, controls glacier growth, suggests they are not in crisis

A return to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation would reverse the retreat of many of the world's glaciers.

Although glacier lengths may shrink, accumulation zones will survive where there is adequate precipitation.

El Nino and La Ninas and other natural oscillations will affect storm tracks causing decadal ebbs and flows of regional glaciers

But the ultimate control will be determined by solar effects on the ITCZ’s latitude and its associated pressure systems. While changes in sunspots and irradiance are unpredictable, the orbital influence of the obliquity cycle suggests the ITCZ will continue to move southward for another 10,000 years causing Little Ice Age-like growth of the world's glaciers.

Up next: part 7: Floods

Heat waves are 100% Natural

 

Watch the video 

HEAT WAVES ARE 100% NATURAL- PART 5: HOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONTROL CLIMATE

at https://youtu.be/eddO6RVZ2CM

Below is the video's transcript :

Welcome everyone

Heat waves provide the perfect optics for those who want to push climate alarmism arguing CO2 is causing the world to dramatically overheat. 

Using uncontested physics and published peer reviewed evidence I will conclusively show heat waves are all natural. So today in part 5 of how pressure systems control climate, I examine how natural shifts in the location and duration of high-pressure systems cause heatwaves.

Various researchers will define heatwaves differently depending on the hypotheses they want to support.

But the American meteorological organization defines a heat wave as a weather event during which maximum temperatures are 5+ degrees Celsius higher than average on those dates and lasts for 5+ consecutive days

Researchers that push a CO2 driven climate crisis, argue that it is the shift in the average global temperature that results in more extreme heat waves and more record high temperatures.

But that is misinformation. Any honest and critical thinker will readily see the peak in USA heatwaves, as illustrated by the EPA, happened in the 1930s and there is no correlation with the global warming trend.

Clearly heatwaves and extreme temperatures are caused by factors other than changes in the global average temperature statistic. Such a false manufactured statistical argument is why Mark Twain's quip that there are” lies, damn lies and statistics” has resonated for over a century.

To put heat waves and extreme temperatures into perspective we first see that the theoretical maximum ground surface temperature has been estimated to lie between 90 and 100 Celsius or 194 to 212 Fahrenheit.

The air temperatures used to generate a global average are primarily heated by contact with the earth's solar heated surfaces, air temperatures correlate with ground temperatures but are 30 to 50 degrees Celsius cooler.

Based on that difference we can infer the theoretical maximum air temperatures should lie between 50 and 60 Celsius or 122 and 140 Fahrenheit.

The science of heatwaves and maximum temperatures have determined 5 basic factors to evaluate any trends

• First, maximum temperatures are determined by the overhead angle of sunlight which is greatest in the tropics, clear skies permit maximum insolation but are greatest in the subtropics under high pressure systems.

• Second, because air is heated by contact with the ground, changes in surface conditions are very important. Dry surfaces heat to much higher temperatures than moist surfaces without any added solar or greenhouse heating

• Third temperatures in descending air currents also increase temperature without any added heat energy due to increasing pressure. As witnessed under high pressure systems and foehn winds.

• Fourth changes in mixing can also increase air temperatures without any added solar or greenhouse heating. For example, warm air transported from the Sahara Desert has raised temperatures during Europe’s heatwaves

• Finally, there is the balance between radiative heating and radiative cooling. Climate crisis narratives suggest increased CO2 slows the escape of infrared heat energy, reducing the rate of cooling and thus warming the earth. But counter-intuitively, outgoing infrared heat energy increases, Due to the dry conditions beneath high pressure systems, thus reducing any greenhouse effect.

The most intense solar heating happens in the tropics and least in the polar regions.

The direct rays of the sun are overhead and concentrated during the northern hemisphere's summer shifting as far north as 23.5 N degrees then traveling to 23.5 S degrees for the southern hemisphere's summer. This swath of latitudinal heating from the most intense sunlight defines the tropics, but due to cloudiness the earth's most extreme temperatures don't happen in the tropics.

North America’s and also the world's record for the hottest extreme temperature ever measured is 

56.6 Celsius or 134 Fahrenheit measured in Death Valley located in the sub-tropics at 36 degrees north on July 10, 1913. 

This century old record again refutes any correlation with global average warming trend. It is likely this record has not been broken because it lies close to the theoretical maximum caused by the combineD dynamics previously outlined.

Africa's record maximum is 55 degrees Celsius or 131 Fahrenheit on July 7, 1931, in Tunisia at 32 degrees north.

Asia's record maximum of 54 degrees Celsius or 129.2 Fahrenheit happened in Israel on June 21, 1942, at 32 degrees north. 

These extreme temperatures all happened within weeks of the summer solstice, during a colder global average temperature, and in the subtropics where dry desert conditions, and cloudless high-pressure systems prevail.

Europe's record maximum happened in Athens Greece on July 1977

Australia's record of 50.7 Celsius or 123.3 Fahrenheit happened in January 1960 in Oodnadatta Australia 

that claims to be the driest town in the driest state of the driest continent

Science clearly explains the contribution of dryness to extreme temperatures

Dry soil requires just 0.8  jouleS of energy to raise a gram of dry soil by one degree. In contrast wet soil requires more than twice that energy to raise a gram by one degree.

In addition, over 2200 joules are required to evaporate a gram water without raising its temperature causing evaporative cooling. Without adding any heat energy from the sun or greenhouse gases, increasing dryness raises local temperatures. 

Again, illustrating why temperature change is not a reliable indicator of increased greenhouse warming.

The much higher temperatures measured in big cities is called the urban heat island effect, which amplifies the public's suffering during a heat wave. The urban heat island effect is caused in part by the drying of the landscape as rains are quickly diverted into storm sewers instead of moistening the ground. In addition, the landscape is increasingly covered in asphalt and concrete which takes less energy to heat and holds that heat longer.

Those who push a climate crisis often use this graph of warming temperatures in the USA’s 50 large cities from climate.gov But to claim that warming trend is due to rising co2 is misinformation that ignores the increasing drying effects

Foehn winds are another example of higher temperatures that are not caused by added solar or greenhouse warming, but warm adiabatically solely due to increasing air pressure.

Moist air approaching a mountain are forced upwards on the windward side. The release of latent heat from condensing water vapor helps the air rise. On the leeward side as the air descends it warms to several degrees warmer than on the windward side solely due to increasing pressure.

The record temperature of 18.3 Celsius or 64.9 Fahrenheit for Antarctic happened on February 6, 2020, 

much to the delight of the co2 climate crisis crowd. But this record was caused by a foehn wind descending on the Esperanza base which is located at the tip of the Antarctica peninsula, the continent's most equator-ward location.

Depending on the strength and attack angle of the westerly winds, the winds will travel around the peninsula or at other times go up and over the peninsula's mountains. The Antarctic record temperature was simply an example natural adiabatic heating.

High pressure systems are created by dry descending air currents that also heat the air adiabatically the same as foehn winds

High pressure systems are almost always associated with a heat wave. The dry descending air creates clear skies that allow more solar heating. In addition, the adiabatically warmed descending air prevents warm surface air from rising and mixing with cooler air creating a heat dome, analogous to the heating of a car with its windows rolled up.

With the age of satellites, we can now measure changes in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) while surface weather stations measure incoming solar radiation at the surface.

As illustrated here, during a heatwave in China, the yellow to red colors represent increased downward solar radiation and increased outgoing long-wave radiation measured in watts per meter squared. One watt is equal to one joule of energy per second. Compared to about just 2 W/m2 of CO2 downward heat, the center of this heat wave here, exhibited an increase of 30 to 40 outgoing watts/m2, suggesting a decreased greenhouse effect during a heat wave due to drier air.

In fact, scientists using satellite data, look for such increases in outgoing infrared to determine the location, intensity, and extent of heatwaves around the world.

The heating around the equator causes rising air that draws in moisture on the trade winds that converge and rise forming the intertropical convergence zone.

Prevented from rising higher at the tropopause, the winds are now re-directed towards the poles. Those high-altitude winds converge with equator-ward winds forcing air down to the ground.

This creates a quasi-permanent band of high-pressure systems around the globe centered at about 30 degrees.

Upon reaching the ground descending air is now redirected. Some moving back towards the equator and due to the Coriolis effect form the trade winds and complete the circulation cell known as the Hadley cell. See part 2 of this series for a discussion on how the Hadley cell creates the world's rainforests and deserts.

Other wind currents are directed northward and due to the Coriolis effect form the westerly winds. 

Where these winds converge with winds from the north pole the air is forced upwards forming regions of low pressure. This dynamic of converging winds forming high- and low-pressure systems can be thought of as a short-wave train

Furthermore, these regions form the major jet streams that modify the location of these pressure systems

In 2003, 2010 & 2018 Europe experienced heat waves that broke many local temperature records. All were triggered by drought and high-pressure systems

According to a peer reviewed paper analyzing the contributing factors Black (2006) also found a regionally intensified ITCZ for the 2003 heatwave. 

Here the northward ITCZ is represented in green as reduced outgoing heat waves, which shifted high-pressure systems further north, illustrated here in red, representing increased outgoing heat waves

In addition, both Black and Sparnocchia (2006) reported "hot dry air was pumped into western Europe from the Sahara"

El Ninos and La Ninas can shift the location of intense convection of the ITCZ. During a La Nina, intense convection is located over the western pacific warm pool which induces a wave train of sinking air and high pressure over Africa and also over the eastern Pacific, which then induces low-pressure and rain over the Atlantic as seen here.

(I also suggest seeing part 4 discussing how La Nina’s increase the strength of the warm pool causing global warming.)

Intense La Nina convection further triggers a wave train of high- and low-pressure systems that stretches across the Atlantic into Europe and Asia

A map of anomalously wet and dry weather across the globe during a La Nina demonstrates its dominant global teleconnections. It was a La Nina wave train that brought dry weather over the USA’s Great Plains and, with that dryness further amplified by landscape degradation, generated the Dust Bowl and the USA’s period of greatest heat waves.

During an El Nino, the warm water and center of intense convection moves eastward. Sometimes it reaches all the way to the coast of the Americas, and sometimes only to the central Pacific. This induces varying wave trains with a high pressure over Indonesia causing reduced Asian monsoons and drought. 

The 1997-98 El Nino brought floods to California and simultaneously extreme drought and a deadly heat wave to Indonesia.

Scientists also determined, since the 1960s El Nino events have amplified heat waves across China

El Nino wave trains also trigger anomalously wet and dry regions around the world but in different regions than La Nina and neutral years.

As Chase (2006) and other scientists have come to realize “natural variability in the form of El Nino & volcanic eruptions is of much greater importance for causing extreme regional temperature anomalies, than a simple upward [warming] trend in time" 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation begins with intense convection over the western Indian ocean warm pool that induces descending air and a high pressure further to the east. Then over the course of 60 to 90 days the low- and high-pressure systems move in tandem across the pacific until it reaches the cooler waters upwelled in the eastern pacific

The Madden-Julian Oscillation likewise creates wave trains such as this one causing high-pressure and a heat wave over the coast of South America.  The interaction of all these varying wave trains makes for complex weather patterns

Poleward wave trains from El Ninos, La Ninas and the Madden Julian Oscillation will affect the Arctic Oscillation during which the polar jet stream shifts from strong west to east zonal flow in its positive phase, switching to a more wavy flow in its negative phase which disrupts the eastward flow with more northward and southward flows.

Complex interactions with multiple wave trains affects the Arctic Oscillation causing its phases to switch from month to month. Such monthly phase changes are evidence of natural variability that refutes theories arguing the wavy jet stream is driven by less arctic ice and a climate change warming trend. 

During February 2021's valentines week, a wavy flow brought cold arctic air southward & deep into the heart of Texas, causing a deep freeze and major societal disruptions.

Just months earlier in June 2020 a very strong zonal flow of the positive phase prevented cold arctic air from moving south, which would normally moderate the summer temperatures around the Arctic Circle.   

Accordingly, on June 20th, 2020, Verkhoyansk Russia, just north of the Arctic Circle, reached its all-time maximum temperature record of 38 Celsius, or 100.4 Fahrenheit, to also become the hottest recorded temperature inside the arctic circle

Overland (2020) rightfully concluded this Siberian heat wave and extreme temperature was an example of random weather. But despite contradictory evidence, Overland also dutifully suggested climate change and Arctic Amplification had made the heat wave worse.

Overland ignored that for 30 years prior to this extreme weather event, Verkhoyansk's June temperatures demonstrated a cooling trend.     

Furthermore, the previous record high temperature deeper inside the Arctic Circle was just 0.2 degrees Celsius cooler, measuring 37.8 Celsius. or just 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit cooler at 100 F and set in 1915 at Fort Yukon, Alaska.

Just a 0.2 degree increase over one hundred years is, in reality, evidence of an extremely small long-term warming trend due to any Arctic Amplification. And given how sparsely populated it is inside the arctic circle, it is highly likely many other Arctic regions have also experienced similar warm temperatures due to the Arctic Oscillation's jet stream barrier preventing southward flows of cold air; temperatures that were simply not recorded. Nonetheless the UN News, in support of its IPCC’s climate crisis narrative, characterized this weather event as a "disturbing high temperature record". So be scared people!

The North Atlantic Oscillation is the regional expression of the Arctic Oscillation and similarly bounces between a wavy jet stream in its negative phase and a strong west to east zonal wind in its positive phase, and varying from month to month. And again, it is a measure of natural weather variability independent of climate change but causing climate related changes.

As published by Mysak (1990), interactions between El Ninos and the jet stream increased waviness that caused sea ice to expand in Baffin Bay to the west of Greenland where the jet's southward flow brought colder air. Simultaneously it caused sea ice reduction to the east of Greenland caused by the wavy jet's northward flow of warmer air. 

Wavy jet streams also slow down the west to east migration of storms and the high-pressure systems that are typically observed in daily weather patterns. That enables blocking high pressure systems to sit over a given region for weeks causing long-term heat waves. A blocking high-pressure system enabled the lengthy 2010 Russian heat wave, and a blocking high pressure system enabled the 2019 European heat wave.

Looking at northern hemisphere temperature anomalies during the Russian 2010 heat wave, we see a quasi-stationary wave train with a hot, dry high-pressure system centered over western Russia causing a month and a half of extremely hot temperatures, a colder low pressure sits over central Russia and a warm high pressure over eastern Russia and cooler temperatures in the north pacific

Randall dole is an expert on blocking high pressure systems and concluded the 2010 Russian heat wave was "mainly due to natural internal atmospheric variability" that causes blocking high pressure systems and heat waves seen in red, to form every few years in the region while dry land surfaces amplified the 2010 heat

Hauser (2016) reported "dry soil moisture alone increased the risk of severe heat 6-fold"

Due to the temperature contrasts between the land and ocean and western USA mountain ranges, the north-east pacific is also a region where a wavy jet and blocking high pressure systems frequently form, bringing drought and heat waves to western north America.

Again, looking at temperature anomalies across north America, we see it is part of a wave train with the hot blocking high pressure system centered over Oregon, Washington and western Canada, a cool low-pressure system sitting over central USA and Canada, warm high pressure over northeast America and cooler temperatures over the north Atlantic

The 45.5 degree Celsius temperature in the town of Lytton British Columbia set a new record for Canada, but just barely as the old Canadian record was 45 degrees flat set in 1937.

And although Oregon saw temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, it was still cooler than Oregon’s record heat of 48.3 Celsius set in 1898.

Climate crisis narratives currently bombarding the public consistently ignore a wealth of science in order to focus blame for heat waves on CO2 global warming! 

Crisis narratives ignore the hotter extremes in our cooler past.    

They ignore the high-pressure systems created by wave train dynamic

Climate crises narratives ignore high pressure system dynamics of 

 1) clearer skies and increased solar heating 

2)  drier surfaces that raise the risk of heat waves 6-fold and more 

3) adiabatic heating that warms temperatures without any added heat energy 

4) and the transport of warmer air into cooler regions

"Attribution science" is a newly created so-called "science" that appears to be just a rubber stamping of the climate crisis narratives as their analyses never fully account for all the contributing factors as good science must, preferring to push a meaningless statistic that a higher average temperature means more extreme weather. It clearly is misinformation

So up next Next: part 6 - How pressure systems control growing and shrinking glaciers

Until then .....